For all of Punty's tips for Flemington, head to https://punty.ai/tips/flemington-2026-06-20

Rightio Loose Units, Flemington's belting down on a Heavy 8 with the rail shoved out 11m and a cheeky 16km/h headwind up the straight, so this is proper old-school trench warfare: get handy, get cover, and pray your horse doesn't get bailed up like a bloke in peak-hour on the West Gate.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Flemington, 1100m-2540m card
Rail: Out 11m Entire Circuit
Official going: Heavy 8 (expected to play on-pace friendly, with late closers needing luck)
Weather: Showers, 11°C, humidity 96%, wind 24km/h WSW (watch for rain, slick lanes, and a straight-up slog)
Early lane guess: On-pace and handy runners have the clearest path; backmarkers need tempo plus clear air
Tempo profile: A couple of hot ones early, then a few true tests where the front-half runners get every chance to pinch it
Jockeys to follow:
Craig Williams — if there's a lane to be found in the muck, he'll usually sniff it out before the rest of them.
Jamie Mott — gets the right sort of horses in these maps and knows when to push the button.
Jye McNeil — dangerous when the race shape suits; can have them in the right spot without making a song and dance about it.
Stables to respect:
C Maher (4 runners) — has a handful of live chances and a couple of them are getting serious market love.
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (6 runners) — plenty of bullets across the card, and they don't send them here for a social outing.
M, W & J Hawkes (2 runners) — when they pop up with the right type, they tend to mean business.

Punty's take:

This is one of those Flemington meetings where the straight will look like a movie set from Saving Private Ryan by race 4. Heavy ground, rail out, and a wind in the face means you don't want to be making your living off late swoopers unless they're absolute mud-loving lunatics with a perfect setup. The horses sitting in the first half of the field - especially the ones who can kick on the turn - are the ones getting every possible favours today. Think less "Top Gun run-on" and more "do the hard yards, then hold your nerve".

The other big wrinkle is the market. There's a heap of horses steaming or taking money, but not every shove on the tote is gospel. Some of it makes sense - the wet track types, the ones with gear changes, the horses with map help - and some of it smells like punters just chasing a haircut from the market gods. The trick today is not getting seduced by every drifter or every plunge. Flemington in the wet can make geniuses out of front-runners and grubs out of the ones stuck midfield with nowhere to go.

The races to attack are the ones where the speed map and wet form line up. The races to respect are the proper open handicaps where half the field could win if the chips fall right. That's where you want to lean on place betting and keep the stake discipline tight. When the day gets messy, don't be the mug punter trying to make a quaddie look clever - be the sicko who picks the right horse, takes the place, and lives to fight the next one.

What it means for you:

Start by treating the early sprints like a pressure cooker. If your horse can cross, sit handy, and handle the slop, you're already halfway home. In the middle-distance and staying races, keep an eye on the wet-track records and the horses that can keep rolling under pressure - because the ones who need a perfect surface are going to fold up like a deck chair.

Your best plays are the races where the model and the map agree: short enough to be competitive, enough speed to sort the field, and a horse with either the right draw or the right style to survive the drag. For the chaos races, don't get greedy. Place bets and exact race-specific coverage are the way to go. Today is not the day to spray and pray like you're in the final scene of Casino. Be selective, back the right style, and let the wet track do the trimming.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.
1 - Portarlington (Race 1, No.2) — $5.25
Why Maps beautifully from barrier 1 and gets every chance to stalk the hot tempo before the straight turns into a bog.
2 - Decalogue (Race 2, No.1) — $3.38
Why Winner of his last two and the right sort of grinder for a slogging 2000m test; if he gets rolling early, they may not run him down.
3 - Bold Soul (Race 3, No.1) — $6.90
Why Wet form, staying profile and a setup that suits a horse who can keep winding up while the others are flapping about like seagulls at the chips.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~122.28 = ~$1222.78 collect

Race 1 – TAB We're On Hcp

Race type: Open, 1420m
Map & tempo: Hot speed with Running Rich, Satono's Shout and South Yarra Miss all up there doing burnouts; Portarlington and Shinsiena get the map kiss.
Punty read: This is a speed vs stamina brawl with the wind and the wet both leaning on the leaders. Portarlington draws to get the cheap run and Craig Williams is exactly the sort of hoop you want when the straight turns ugly. Fontein Jewel has the wet-track ticket and comes in with the right form profile, while Star Of Macedon has been buzzing up in the market and can sit close enough to be right in the finish if the rails are the place to be. Running Rich is the roughie with the shape to annoy them if he settles and the leaders go too hard.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Portarlington (No.2) — $5.25 / $2.00
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 17.4% | Place: 60.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Barrier 1, handy map, and a heavy-track run where he can sit in the perfect chair while the tempo cooks the rest.
2. Fontein Jewel (No.1) — $6.35 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.15x
Why Wet-track form is the money here; she closed hard to win on heavy ground and gets the sort of conditions where honest grinders tend to shine.
3. Star Of Macedon (No.4) — $5.30 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.96x
Why Has the map and the money, but needs to hold a spot and not get swallowed up in the early drag race.
Roughie: Running Rich (No.3) — $11.25 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.27x
Why If the front runners turn this into a suicide mission, he can hang around and pinch a slice of it late.

Race 2 – Ken Cox Hcp

Race type: Handicap, 2000m
Map & tempo: Decalogue leads; Think Your Amazing, She's Got The Cash and Morisu Ojo are the pace helpers if they want to get serious.
Punty read: This looks like a genuine staying test with a leader who can keep stacking them up and a couple of good sit-and-sprint types trying to mug him late. Decalogue is the one they all have to catch, but the wet ground and tempo make it far from a picnic. Our Chief is the old-school improver who can roll into the race at the right time, while Kings Reflection has the market nibble but has to overcome a sticky draw and a bit of a question mark if the pressure is on. She's Got The Cash is the filly to respect if the lightweight claim lets her sneak into the finish without doing too much work.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Decalogue (No.1) — $3.38 / $1.50
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$15.75
Prob 17.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.73x
Why Back-to-back wins, goes forward, and in these conditions a horse controlling the race can make the others feel like they're running in syrup.
2. Our Chief (No.3) — $6.90 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.32x
Why Genuine third-up type who will appreciate the 2000m and the slog; if they overcook the lead, he's the one coming at them late.
3. Kings Reflection (No.10) — $4.60 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.88x
Why Big market squeeze says someone likes him, but he still needs the race to pan out cleanly from that alley.
Roughie: Harbour Town (No.4) — $12.25 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.50x
Why If he recaptures the better version from earlier prep and gets the right midfield tow, he's the sort who can sneak into the money when the big guns are busy coughing and spluttering.

Race 3 – Country Racing It's Got It All Trophy Hcp

Race type: Open, 2540m
Map & tempo: Hot pace with Tajanis, Howlin' Rain and Mr Waterville likely pressing on; the backmarkers need genuine pace and a bit of luck.
Punty read: This is a proper staying battle, the sort of race where the first kilometre matters almost as much as the last. Bold Soul looks the right sort to be climbing into the finish if the pace melts down, while Tempesti is the grinder who can keep touching the line and make a dog's breakfast of the form if the leaders fold. The Western Front has been given a nasty drift but still profiles as a horse who can be there turning for home, and Kingofwallstreet is the roughie who can hang on if the on-pace brigade goes at it like idiots in a pub brawl.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)

1. Bold Soul (No.1) — $6.90 / $2.50
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$1.75
Prob 13.7% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.12x
Why Heavy-track staying profile, solid wet run fresh, and the rise in trip is exactly the sort of thing that wakes him up.
2. Tempesti (No.2) — $10.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.32x
Why A real stayer in a race that could turn into a war of attrition; if they overdo it early, he'll be the one still breathing at the end.
3. The Western Front (No.5) — $6.65 / $2.40
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.30
Prob 11.2% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 0.88x
Why Drifted out but has the staying base and the map to hang around; if the race gets messy, he's one of the few who won't panic.
Roughie: Kingofwallstreet (No.8) — $10.50 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why Nice enough map and enough staying tissue to make the frame if the front end turns into a cheese grater.

Race 4 – Rod Johnson Hcp

Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Hot speed with La Astro Chat, Fehmarn, Prestar and Poker all wanting the chair; that usually means the horse that can sit in the first wave without burning petrol is gold.
Punty read: This is the kind of wet sprint that makes grown men cry. Blethyn has the right style and has been backed like a horse the stable expects to run a number, while Recuperato is the one that makes you sit up because the money says the barn is confident and the draw is not horrific. I'mateez and Poker both have enough momentum to be involved if they can land near the speed without getting cooked. Choir Point is the obvious class runner, but in this muck short-priced leaders can get found out like extras in the opening scene of Gladiator.

Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)

1. Choir Point (No.4) — $3.83 / $1.60
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P), return $22.98 (wins) / $9.60 (places)
Prob 16.0% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.70x
Why Genuine class horse, handles the journey, and his wet-track runs say he won't be bothered if this turns into a fight.
2. Prestar (No.9) — $4.55 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.73x
Why Has been smashed in the market and the tongue tie says they're trying to squeeze every last drop out of him.
3. Poker (No.14) — $8.00 / $2.35
Bet $8.00 Place, return $18.80
Prob 14.1% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.29x
Why One-start winner with a wet-track tick and the sort of pace map that can let him stalk and strike instead of burning daylight.
Roughie: Blethyn (No.2) — $10.25 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 1.05x
Why He gets the run of the race from the good alley and has the profile of a horse that can slip through when others are flat out paddling.

Race 5 – 2026 Country Achiever Cindy Alderson (Bm84)

Race type: Benchmark 84, 1420m
Map & tempo: Proper hot tempo with Angland, Fridge Monster, Semillion and Rosa Aotearoa all involved; this one should be run at a clip, then tested in the straight.
Punty read: This is the raceday headache. You've got resumers, drifters, plungers and a stack of horses with excuses, which is usually racing's way of saying "good luck, mate". Thebelmontgangster is the horse the market has nominated as the one to beat, but Madero is the juicy one here - nice draw, gear changes, and a market shove that says connections aren't here for a picnic. Capper Thirtynine has the wet-ground pattern and the price, while Angland is the big roughie who looks like the sort that can stalk this hot speed and make them pay late if the legs start turning to jelly.

Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)

1. Thebelmontgangster (No.14) — $4.80 / $1.90
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P), return $32.40 (wins) / $12.82 (places)
Prob 14.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.79x
Why Honest, in-form enough, and the wet ground won't scare him; just needs to overcome the drift and the wide alley.
2. Madero (No.3) — $12.25 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.84x
Why First-time gear all over him and a market squeeze tells you the stable means business; maps to get every chance.
3. Capper Thirtynine (No.9) — $15.25 / $3.70
Bet $4.00 Place, return $14.80
Prob 10.8% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 1.86x
Why He loves it when the sting is out and the race falls apart; the wet track and hot speed can set it up for a late slice.
Roughie: Angland (No.6) — $22.00 / $4.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 2.24x
Why Resuming with a proper record fresh and enough class to bob up if the speed gets too brutal.

Race 6 – Bruce Gadsden (Bm90)

Race type: Handicap, 1420m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Duchess Zou leading; It's A Knockout, Husk and Sweet Jasmine are the best of the chase pack.
Punty read: Here's a race where the map matters a fair bit. Duchess Zou is the one they all have to catch, and she's got the wet form to make life nasty for the mob coming behind. Still, this is exactly the sort of setup where a horse like Stylish can park up and be the one rattling home once the front runners start legging it like they're late for last drinks. First Chorus is the classy short one but the market has clipped him hard enough that you don't want to be overpaying. It's A Knockout is the interesting one - the race shape, the firming, and the solid second-up profile all line up a bit like a bloke who's finally remembered his house keys.

Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)

1. Duchess Zou (No.2) — $4.60 / $1.90
Bet $14.00 Each Way ($7.00W + $7.00P), return $32.20 (wins) / $13.30 (places)
Prob 17.3% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.91x
Why This mare is a wet-track leader with the right pattern - if she gets rolling, she can make the rest chase shadows.
2. First Chorus (No.8) — $4.25 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.84x
Why Honest enough and well placed, but the price says the punters have already found him and then some.
3. Stylish (No.6) — $7.25 / $2.35
Bet $3.50 Place, return $8.22
Prob 15.2% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.26x
Why Maps to get a decent ride and the wet ground doesn't worry him; if the leaders come back to the field, he's right in the blender.
Roughie: It's A Knockout (No.4) — $11.25 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 1.52x
Why The kind of horse who can improve sharply when the race shape is kinder, and the money says someone around the joint agrees.

Race 7 – Brian Beattie Hcp

Race type: Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with New York Lustre setting the tone; Dragonstone, De Bergerac, Contemporary, Royal Insignia and Moby Dick all sit just off it or handy enough to make life interesting.
Punty read: This is a lovely little speed puzzle and exactly the sort of race where the wet straight can expose the pretenders. Losesomewinmore is the class runner on the card and if he handles the conditions he's the one the others are chasing, but he's not a gift at the price. New York Lustre has been heavily backed and the map says he gets the run to justify the squeeze. De Bergerac is the honest old bugger who can keep grinding, while Winnasedge is the cheeky overlay with a handy spot and the right kind of zip to stay relevant.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Losesomewinmore (No.4) — $4.15 / $1.65
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P), return $21.79 (wins) / $8.66 (places)
Prob 18.3% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 0.90x
Why He brings the best wet-track form and enough class to absorb pressure, but needs the track to play fair enough for him to land.
2. New York Lustre (No.2) — $4.65 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.7% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.98x
Why Freshened, fitted out with the right map, and the market squeeze says the stable isn't mucking about.
3. De Bergerac (No.6) — $4.65 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.89x
Why Good enough horse, but he's going to need the leaders to go a touch too hard and for the gaps to appear at the right time.
Roughie: Samangu (No.7) — $21.25 / $5.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.92x
Why In a race like this, if the tempo gets ugly and the front bunch starts folding, he can sneak into the frame at a price.

Race 8 – The David Bourke Hcp

Race type: Open, 1620m
Map & tempo: Hot speed with Punch Lane, Al Duca and Highlights all wanting to roll forward; Jimmy The Bear and Buckets Ridge get the dream shape to sit over the top of it.
Punty read: This is a proper Flemington 1620m battleground, and the market has taken a knife to a few of them. Al Duca is the short one and he deserves respect, but the race shape says Jimmy The Bear and Saint George can get the exact kind of run that keeps them in the fight all the way down the straight. Punch Lane is the wet-track old warrior who can pin his ears back and give you a sight if he gets an easy lead or a clean sit. This feels like one of those races where a horse you hadn't even noticed at the 300m can suddenly be right there at the money like a bloke wandering in with chips after the bell.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)

1. Al Duca (No.5) — $4.25 / $1.65
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P), return $14.88 (wins) / $5.77 (places)
Prob 17.9% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.88x
Why Classy enough, deadly honest, and has the track profile to be right in the mix if the leaders overdo it.
2. Jimmy The Bear (No.2) — $6.45 / $2.05
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.18x
Why Winning form, strong track record, and a map that should let him park in the right spot before pouncing.
3. Saint George (No.3) — $6.40 / $2.15
Bet $4.50 Place, return $9.67
Prob 15.8% | Place: 46.3% | Value: 1.17x
Why Freshened and gear tweak says the stable wants him sharper; if he settles where he should, he can absolutely lob into the placings.
Roughie: Detonator Jack (No.7) — $20.25 / $4.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.6% | Place: 43.3% | Value: 0.83x
Why Needs the race to be run at a brutal clip, then needs the right peel-out and a bit of luck - not impossible, just very bastard-hard.

Race 9 – Country Racing Victoria Trophy Hcp

Race type: Open, 1620m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Flying Done and Lucky Lucky Boom leading the charge; Highvol, Paddypie, Obvious and Palladium all loom as the shape horses.
Punty read: This is a tricky last leg where the market has already declared a few opinions, and the drift on Kaleo is the eyebrow-raiser. But he still maps well enough and has the right heavy-track profile to be a serious player. Flying Done is the value mover with the kind of pace map that could let him get first crack at the straight, while Highvol is the roughie that nobody wants to leave out if the race turns into a controlled affair. Obvious is the horse that screams "better than the form line" if he gets the right split and doesn't get trapped behind the wall of death.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.00 pool)

1. Kaleo (No.2) — $5.60 / $1.90
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P), return $19.60 (wins) / $6.65 (places)
Prob 20.3% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.28x
Why Has been running well, handles the wet, and gets the kind of lane where he can do something useful without overworking.
2. Paddypie (No.8) — $3.08 / $1.32
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 0.65x
Why Hard to knock the recent form, but the map and the price don't exactly scream "mortgage the house".
3. Flying Done (No.3) — $6.45 / $1.90
Bet $4.00 Place, return $7.60
Prob 16.5% | Place: 66.7% | Value: 1.21x
Why Has the pace and the run style to take advantage if this settles into a nice stalking race rather than a slog.
Roughie: Highvol (No.1) — $26.00 / $4.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 63.7% | Value: 1.59x
Why If the front end gets soft and he gets an economical ride, he's the sort who can pop up and ruin a few exotics.

SEQUENCE LANES — SINGLE OPTIMISED TICKET

EARLY QUADDIE (R2–R5)

Smart: 1,10,3,4 / 1,5,2,8 / 4,14,9,2 / 14,3,9,6 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
Four open legs, which is exactly the sort of early-morning chaos that eats mugs for breakfast; wide enough to survive, but not so wide you need a bank loan.

QUADDIE (R6–R9)

Smart: 8,2,6,4 / 4,2,6,3 / 5,2,3,4 / 2,8,3,1 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
This is a proper survival ticket: every leg has enough live chances to keep you breathing, but there are no freebies - you're buying a chance, not a holiday.

BIG 6 (R4–R9)

Smart: 4 / 14 / 2 / 4 / 5 / 2 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
About as skinny as it gets, which means it's either a beautiful little dart or a fast trip to the growling stage - pure entertainment with a sharp edge.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Flemington heavy straight, on-pace bias
The rail out and the headwind up the straight both scream the same thing: if you can sit handy and kick, you're a much nicer chance than the poor bastard trying to run on from the clouds.

2 - The market is loving the wet-track map horses
Horses like Portarlington, Madero, Stylish and Kaleo have the sort of profile that punters are naturally sniffing around - and on a day like this, that kind of support isn't coming out of nowhere.

3 - Gear changes matter more than usual today
First-time gear on Madero, Think Your Amazing, Supernima and a few others is the sort of thing you don't ignore in the wet. It's the racing version of putting new tyres on before a storm.

FINAL WORD FROM THE DEGEN DEN

This is a day for clear heads and muddy boots. Back the horses with the map, the wet form, and the right kind of engine - and don't get seduced by every shiny price like it's a Marvel post-credit scene. Tighten up when the race is a mess, trust the place lines, and let the track separate the brave from the busted. Gamble Responsibly.