TOP PICKS ON THE MOVE — the picks on this card have shifted 4 times today on scratchings and market moves. Punty's staying nimble; treat this card with care.
Thursday, 10 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: C1 Handicap, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Aranese on pace, Philatelic tracks midfield, Hitch and others disadvantaged
Punty read: This is a slow-pace 1600m, which means the race is basically a long hallway with doors at the end. Philatelic, with the blinkers and the "busy" gear tweaks, should get the chance to sit in the middle ground and pounce when they start to straggle. Aranese is the classic "tries to do it the hard way" on-pace type, but in slow tempos, being on the lead can turn into being stuck as everyone crowds the same lane. Hitch is the kind of backmarker that can run on for a cheque, but to win, he's got to beat the traffic, and that's asking a lot.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Philatelic (No.1) — $2.30 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$19.50
Prob 35.6% | Place: 67.7% | Value: 1.01x
Why Blinkers again, stays in the right part of the field, and slow pace lets him go from stalking to finishing without getting fried early.
2. Hitch (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.2% | Place: 50.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Costabit (No.2) — $5.00 / $2.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.5% | Place: 37.1% | Value: 1.08x
Why He's got value on paper, but with only two places paying, it's a tough squeeze unless he wins.
Roughie: Derry City Felix (No.4) — $17.00 / $4.20 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.9% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.81x
Why Long odds roughie path is narrow, he needs the slow tempo to completely break and for the market to be wrong.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, prefer Diamonds in the midfield, Fay's Angels from midfield, Green Pineapple back
Punty read: This one's a 2000m where tempo decides everything. Prefer Diamonds looks like he's got the right sort of position, close enough to avoid getting stranded, with the pace not too wild. Fay's Angels can sneak into it if they don't stack up too early, and Green Pineapple is the sort that can run home if the race stays mellow enough. Dr Evil and Binkou are your "maybe get a miracle" types from further back, and Vieste is the sort of longshot that's only interesting if the front crashes and burns.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Prefer Diamonds (No.4) — $2.76 / $1.57 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 32.2% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.08x
Why Midfield run style on a slow tempo, and he should get first crack once the leaders start to tire.
2. Fay's Angels (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.6% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.05x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Green Pineapple (No.6) — $4.20 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.0% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why He can be there at the end, but to win he needs everything to line up in the final 200m.
Roughie: Dr Evil (No.2) — $21.00 / $5.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.4% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.60x
Why From that map, the roughie path is real only if the front completely collapses and he has room to go.
Race type: Maiden Handicap, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Power Broker and Comanche Chief likely to do the heavy work up the front/middle
Punty read: This is your classic two-horse sort of fight, Power Broker versus Comanche Chief. With the tempo slow, both chances come down to who gets the clean run and who gets boxed when the field breathes out. Power Broker has the market confidence, and Comanche Chief has the barrier that helps him sit where he wants without getting trapped. Red Deer is the value watch, but she's the kind that needs everything to go right early. Gold Earth and Warm Front are more "watch the gaps" types, if the race opens they're dangerous, if not they're just there.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Power Broker (No.2) — $2.00 / $1.09 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.00
Prob 39.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Slow tempo suits, and his trip should be the sort where he can pounce without being asked to do too much too early.
2. Comanche Chief (No.1) — $2.40 / $1.13 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 35.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.17x
Why A real chance — but at $1.13 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Red Deer (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.50 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.29x
Why Value is real, but the place route is fickle unless she gets the exact lane in the run to the line.
Roughie: Gold Earth (No.3) — $12.00 / $2.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 28.9% | Value: 0.75x
Why Roughie needs gaps plus luck plus a clean finisher, and with his value under pressure, he's the "if it all breaks" watch.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Beyond The Reef and Pailleron the key midfield-speed threats, Ignition Code and Shanti in the next wave
Punty read: 1100m maidens at Hawkesbury are ruthless. Slow tempo doesn't mean slow finish, it means you'll be sprinting from about the 600m with everyone still within striking range. Beyond The Reef and Pailleron have the best blend of early positioning and that "can keep going" profile. Ignition Code is live for a bigger run if he finds the right section, and Shanti's there for the same reason, but the market is doing the heavy lifting on top. Moon Flash and others? They're the "blink and miss them" ones, unless the race opens up early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Beyond The Reef (No.3) — $2.55 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 30.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.83x
Why Cross-over nose band first time and the early run style fits, he should get the right contact points and keep punching.
2. Pailleron (No.9) — $3.40 / $1.52 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.08
Prob 25.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why Big place profile, and ear muffs first time can help him focus, grab a lane, and hold his ground late.
3. Ignition Code (No.6) — $8.50 / $2.45 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 37.4% | Value: 1.25x
Why He's got the value shape, but the profitable place band isn't there for him, so he rides the "watch him" train.
Roughie: Moon Flash (No.2) — $12.75 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 21.4% | Value: 0.86x
Why Roughie path is lane and momentum, he needs the race to stay bunched and for him to hit the final burst with cover.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Not On My Watch in the speed mix, Camden Cove and Soviet Storm as the threats
Punty read: Genuine pace at 1100 means two things, the front can't stop, and the horses close enough to hit the line will get paid. Not On My Watch has the right kind of profile for this, and he's the kind of speed that turns a field into a queue. Camden Cove is the obvious danger, Soviet Storm the value type that can still clunk a finish. Markos Port is the roughie alley, Maccbi the back end, but the main map story is about who gets to the burn zone first.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Not On My Watch (No.10) — $2.00 / $1.07 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$15.00
Prob 40.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why He's built for this tempo, with a map that puts him right where the race speeds up.
2. Camden Cove (No.1) — $2.32 / $1.05 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why A real chance — but at $1.05 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Soviet Storm (No.8) — $11.50 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 55.4% | Value: 1.40x
Why Value is the story, but the place mechanics aren't right enough to stake it.
Roughie: Markos Port (No.5) — $14.00 / $2.65 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.94x
Why Roughie path is finishing speed from the right trip, but he's not the one I want carrying the main load.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Mrs Flanders and At Her Mercy advantaged, Lady Of The Castle midfield
Punty read: This is a speed-meets-position 1100. At Her Mercy and Mrs Flanders have the map on side, and they're the type that can take the sting out of the race and still be in front when the finish starts. Shalaa Gold can sit close, but slow starts can bite at this distance. Lady Of The Castle is the third wheel that keeps running on. Los Padres and River Pat are the outsiders that need more luck than the top trio.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. At Her Mercy (No.5) — $3.65 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 23.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.04x
Why Pace advantage fits, and with the right run she can be first to grab the lead once the field compresses.
2. Mrs Flanders (No.4) — $3.65 / $1.40 🏆 5TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 23.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why Similar pace profile, and the place bet catches her if the race keeps tightening late.
3. Lady Of The Castle (No.6) — $3.70 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.0% | Place: 66.2% | Value: 0.95x
Why She's a genuine hope, but the profitable place setup isn't there for her today.
Roughie: Los Padres (No.1) — $9.50 / $2.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.72x
Why Roughie path is getting cover and timing, but he's asking too much from backmarker positioning.
Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Seminal and Call Me Coach in the driver's seat, Never Know a closer danger
Punty read: Maiden handicap at 1300 with slow pace is all about who can make the turn and still have fuel for the last 200. Seminal and Call Me Coach are your main chess pieces. Seminal is the one with the right kind of profile to wear the confidence and still travel into the finish. Call Me Coach has the same story, so this is more "which trip" than "which horse". Never Know is the honest mid tier, while Castelique and Loreal Belle are more for those who love a lane-clearing run.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Seminal (No.10) — $2.70 / $1.25 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 30.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why Suits the slow tempo, and his running style should let him stick around to the finish line without getting bogged.
2. Call Me Coach (No.5) — $2.60 / $1.22 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why A real chance — but at $1.22 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Never Know (No.6) — $5.00 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 61.6% | Value: 1.05x
Why Value is respectable, but the place band doesn't line up, so he's a watch, not a stake.
Roughie: Castelique (No.8) — $9.40 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 29.5% | Value: 0.53x
Why Roughie path is a miracle lane, and the value isn't flashing enough for me to lean on it.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Stallone leads type, Concrete Storm a value profile, Divine Secrets midfield
Punty read: 1400 at Hawkesbury where it's a genuine pace? That usually means the race stays lively and the finish isn't a crawl. Concrete Storm's in a nice spot, he's got the win profile but the market is treating him like he'll just be there. Divine Secrets has the confidence and the chance to run on strongly. Stallone is the pressure cooker leader, if he handles the right sort of chase, he can still hang on and go close. If Sunchyme is going to win, it's because the race shape turns chaotic late and he gets a clear run.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Concrete Storm (No.12) — $2.10 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.20
Prob 31.4% | Place: 66.4% | Value: 0.81x
Why The market underestimates him, but the win profile on a genuine tempo makes him a legit leader-to-chase chance.
2. Divine Secrets (No.9) — $3.85 / $1.82 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.1% | Place: 50.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Stallone (No.3) — $4.65 / $2.15 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.0% | Place: 42.5% | Value: 1.14x
Why Big chance, but with only two places paying, I'm keeping the ticket concentrated.
Roughie: Sunchyme (No.2) — $19.25 / $4.80 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.7% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.63x
Why Roughie path is basically chaos and clear running, and it's not the sort of bet I want to force today.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,3,2 / 4,6,1 / 2,1,8,3 / 3,9,6,2 (144 combos x $0.14 = $19.80) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10,1,8,5 / 5,4,6,1 / 10,5,6,8 / 12,9,3 (192 combos x $0.10 = $19.20) -- 10% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,1,8,3 / 3,9,6,2 / 10,1,8,5 / 5,4,6,1 / 10,5,6,8 / 12,9,3 (3072 combos x $0.001627 = $5.00) -- 0.16% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Philatelic (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $2.30
2 - Power Broker (Race 3, No.2)✓ Won — $2.00
3 - Not On My Watch (Race 5, No.10)✓ Won — $2.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Hawkesbury's throwing a Good 4 party with a fairly slow-simmer tempo, so if you're expecting fireworks, you'd better get your torch early. We're heading into a card that screams "pick the one who maps and stays in touch", because when the tempo's slow, the race turns into a traffic jam ballet, and the lucky ones get through at the finish like they own the road.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Good 4, 1,100m to 1,600m card
Rail: +4m 1100m - 450m, True remainder
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play true, with a rail that doesn't murder the outside)
Weather: Cloudy clearing, 16C, humidity 54%, wind 20km/h SSW (watch for gusty wobble, keep an eye on last-minute easing in the market)
Early lane guess: inside stalkers and on-pace midfield, outside only if the draw and confidence line up
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate. When it's like this, being 2 lengths closer sooner is worth a full personality trait
Jockeys to follow:
Zac Lloyd: rides like he's got the map in his pocket, and the mounts are usually in the right part of the race
Kerrin McEvoy: class act when it's a tactical grind, can manufacture a win from awkward flow
Chad Schofield: steady, clean hands, and when he's on the right horse he gets them to the right spot
Stables to respect:
Richard Litt (1 runners): Philatelic is your kind of "snagged a lane" type, blinkers back again and confidence still looks pinned
Jason Attard (1 runners): Prefer Diamonds profiles like a grinder, and when he's primed at this level he usually makes it hard late
G Waterhouse & A Bott (1 runners): Power and know-how on maiden and midweek-style fields, they love gearing up for the right run
Punty's take:
This track is Good 4, rail's out at +4m around the 1100m to 450m mark, so you're looking at a venue where forward runs still get rewarded, but you can absolutely get away with being a touch closer rather than on the absolute lead. Pace is slow on a lot of these races, so the "best horse" usually needs the "right trip" more than usual.
My big story for the day is this, the meeting keeps feeding you obvious leaders, then punishes anyone who thinks they can shortcut it from the back. You'll see it across the card, especially in the early quaddie stretch where tactical speed is gold. Philatelic in Race 1, Prefer Diamonds in Race 2, then Power Broker in Race 3. That's the backbone, keep your spine straight and your ticket alive.
And the chaos? It's there, but it's the kind that comes from either a market wobble or a horse that finally gets the right lane without getting stuffed behind a wall of traffic. So yes, I'm happy to stab a roughie when the odds look like a gift and the run isn't cooked by bad luck. But I'm not here to donate money to the universe for sport.
What it means for you:
Play the lanes where the horses are most likely to get position, because slow tempo races are where the "best finisher" gets swallowed before they can stretch out. If you're backing a short favourite, back it like you expect it to be there, not like you're praying. If you're backing a longer-priced one, you need a reason that makes sense in the race, not just a "she's overdue" fairytale.
Bet smart early, then protect your cash with structure. The best value moves today are the kind that get backed up, not the ones that drift around for fun. That's why the spine is Philatelic, Power Broker, and Not On My Watch. They're the sort that can hit even if the race doesn't go exactly to plan, because their trips are built into the run.
Alright, let's go race-by-race and separate the leaders from the pretenders.