TOP PICKS ON THE MOVE — the picks on this card have shifted 3 times today on scratchings and market moves. Punty's staying nimble; treat this card with care.
Thursday, 10 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden Handicap, 1310m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so position early matters, and late lanes become gold when the rain sits.
Punty read: This one's a "who actually settles and doesn't get stranded" type of race. Harmonious Stride (No.3) is the classic slow-burn backmarker in a field where nobody's really charging early, and that often lets them slingshot late once the pack compresses. Quique (No.1) looks like the sort who can get involved without needing to do everything early, especially with the draw and the ability to hold a spot. Airhawk (No.2) can hang around in the later mix if the race stays slow and the gaps appear.
The only sour note in my head is the rain risk, because when the track gets even more gluey, backmarkers can cop the "no room" tax. So I'm sticking to the two that have the best balance of ability and positioning, then using Togarashi as a value roughie because Soft 5 can flip form upside down like a ute tray with a loose bag of feed.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Harmonious Stride (No.3) — $2.76 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 34.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Slow tempo helps a backmarker, and he's the pick that can hit the line when everyone else is still negotiating the Soft 5.
2. Quique (No.1) — $2.94 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.8% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.68x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Airhawk (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.3% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 0.84x
Why Could run into the money if the race stays genuine and he gets the right pocket, but it's not where I'm putting my money today.
Roughie: Togarashi (No.5) — $27.00 / $5.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.4% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 1.07x
Why The path is chaos, the track is Soft, and if the front half collapses, he's the type that can sneak into the trifecta like an undercover ratbag.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1110m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Bay Of The South likely sets it, so pressure is the real enemy.
Punty read: This is a short-course battle where the front usually has a fight on their hands, because it's hard to get clear on Soft 5 over 1110m. Bay Of The South (No.1) is the leader and looks like the type to get a breather only if the field cooperates. Subsiding (No.12) is the interesting value lane for me, because she's one of those "place to win" profiles, often showing she can run on when you least expect it. Belle Ole (No.10) has the sort of profile that can grab a slice if things get a bit messy.
The roughie, Heres Barbie (No.11), is a price that says "maybe not today, but when it goes, it goes." With the wet and the tempo, there's always a chance someone gets shuffled into a worse spot and it opens a door late. Still, my heart is with the on-pace and near-pace runners first.
Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)
1. Subsiding (No.12) — $3.80 / $1.62 🏆 4TH
Bet $17.50 Each Way ($8.75W + $8.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$17.50
Prob 20.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why She's built for this sort of race shape, and even if she doesn't win, she can easily do the job and finish in the placings.
2. Bay Of The South (No.1) — $3.70 / $1.57 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.78x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Belle Ole (No.10) — $4.60 / $1.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why She's in the frame for sure, it's just the place value band that gets a bit stingy with her rank.
Roughie: Heres Barbie (No.11) — $9.00 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 10.7% | Place: 48.4% | Value: 1.14x
Why If the leader takes a knock and the race compresses, she can ping late and snare the placings, like a late-season comeback story.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1110m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, but there's room for a stalker to pounce if the leaders go too hard.
Punty read: Profiteur's Fil (No.10) is the clear top pick. This race looks like it sets up for him, because his profile screams "I'm comfortable doing my job and finishing it." Angeleo (No.6) is the danger for the quinella and trifecta crowd, he's got the kind of on-pace role that can survive Soft 5 grind. No Idea (No.3) is the sort that can slot into the right spot and earn a slice.
Sea Mission (No.5) is the roughie because in maidens, the value is always hiding somewhere. If the speed collapses a touch and the outside runs on, he's got enough upside to make your day feel like a movie ending where the underdog finally lands the punch.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Profiteur's Fil (No.10) — $2.34 / $1.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$26.80
Prob 43.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why He's the safest profile in the race, built to handle Soft and attack the line while the pack is still moving.
2. Angeleo (No.6) — $3.95 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 18.5% | Place: 66.4% | Value: 1.12x
Why On-pace role plus wet proofing, if he lands close enough he's in the finishing scramble.
3. No Idea (No.3) — $5.70 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.62x
Why He can run well, but today isn't about forcing the issue for value.
Roughie: Sea Mission (No.5) — $11.50 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.05x
Why The win might be a stretch, but on Soft 5 he's the sort who can still hit the frame if the race falls apart late.
Race type: Benchmark 82, 1110m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so the leader has a real job to do, and lategaps are the reward.
Punty read: Tiger Tie (No.1) is your horse. He's got the pace to take control early and the history that says when he's allowed to roll, he gives you a straight line to the finish. Dance Gavin Dance (No.5) is the main challenger type, he's got the on-pace style to keep pressure on. Poseidon's Son (No.2) is more of the "if the race changes gear" threat, he's not priced like a lotto ticket but his value is in the way the race might unfold.
Tonkatsu Goddess (No.6) is a roughie because wet tracks love those grinder types who can make up ground, and she's got enough class to turn a few heads if the front half is vulnerable.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Tiger Tie (No.1) — $2.20 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 36.2% | Place: 67.7% | Value: 0.98x
Why Leader profile fits the tempo, and Soft 5 usually rewards those that can hold their rhythm.
2. Dance Gavin Dance (No.5) — $2.56 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.6% | Place: 66.1% | Value: 0.93x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Poseidon's Son (No.2) — $8.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.22x
Why Value is there if the tempo cracks, but I'm not spreading in a small money-field today.
Roughie: Tonkatsu Goddess (No.6) — $16.00 / $4.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.6% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.91x
Why If the rain hits harder and the leaders tire, she can sneak into the trifecta party like she was invited last minute.
Race type: Class 3, 1210m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so the in-between horses that stalk can absolutely cash in.
Punty read: Warrior Bae (No.7) is the speed-and-toughness type they want at this trip, and when a horse maps cleanly into the race it tends to find the line. Swifties (No.3) is your value pocket if the leaders don't kick on and the race stays tactical. Constellation (No.6) is the other one that can keep grinding and grab a place when things bunch up.
Lovewillcomelater (No.1) is the roughie name only because at this stage of Soft 5, that tongue-tie change sometimes sparks improvement, but you still need things to go right early. If they do, she's not priced like a miracle, she's priced like a plan.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Warrior Bae (No.7) — $2.54 / $1.45 🏆 3RD
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 28.7% | Place: 62.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why He's built for this sort of measured race where a stalk, a contest, and a finish happen, no panic required.
2. Swifties (No.3) — $3.60 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.2% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.07x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Constellation (No.6) — $4.00 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Another strong place type, but I'm keeping the ticket concentrated.
Roughie: Lovewillcomelater (No.1) — $15.00 / $4.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.3% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.79x
Why If she gets a clean start and the race doesn't blow out, Soft 5 can bring the best out of horses like this late.
Race type: Benchmark 66, 1526m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace but long enough for fatigue to do the steering, place levers matter.
Punty read: Long way home, so you want horses that can stay in the rhythm without getting too far back in wet ground. Encouraged (No.6) is priced a bit short in market value terms, but the way the race sets up, I'm actually more confident in the "run on into the placings" angle rather than forcing a win picture.
Herald Angel (No.3) and Vixenette (No.2) are the two that fit the wet staying profile, and Whiskey Miss (No.10) is the one that can run on under soft conditions and grab a place when the race gets tired and messy. Glamour Man is the roughie, but in this kind of benchmark grade, a midfield runner turning into a winner needs a very specific gap and a very specific run.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Herald Angel (No.3) — $4.00 / $1.70 🏆 2ND
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 25.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.32x
Why He's got the staying rhythm and the Soft 5 aptitude, and at 1526m, those finishing runs actually count.
2. Vixenette (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$6.75
Prob 20.8% | Place: 62.6% | Value: 1.35x
Why The race fits her late power, and she's the sort that can finish top three even if the winning spot gets crowded.
3. Whiskey Miss (No.10) — $5.50 / $2.05 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 55.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why She's a genuine chance for the frame, but today the place odds band doesn't justify pushing in.
Roughie: Glamour Man (No.7) — $11.25 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 21.4% | Value: 0.78x
Why He's got the wet form in his locker, but winning from here is a tougher road than people realise.
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1310m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, and the front can survive if it keeps travelling like it owns the road.
Punty read: Caishen (No.3) is the one to follow. He's in that sweet zone where you can see how he's going to run the race, not just hope he can. Transgress (No.4) is the main threat, particularly if the race gets strung out and those midfield runners get a clear look in the straight. Icewater (No.15) is a place watch because if rain makes the track a bit slippery, it's often the back-half of the field that starts grabbing the gaps late.
Risk For Reward (No.16) is the roughie because his profile fits the kind of late chaos this track can throw, especially when leaders tire and the field turns into a queue.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Caishen (No.3) — $1.88 / $1.12 🏆 2ND
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 39.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why Fast enough to use the pace, fit enough to stay on his feet late, and the race shape suits him like a good suit in winter.
2. Transgress (No.4) — $4.10 / $1.57 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.85
Prob 21.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why Midfield run with genuine finishing intent, he's the kind that can slot into the top three if the race compresses.
3. Icewater (No.15) — $10.75 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why He can run on, but the place band math on him isn't where I'm chasing value.
Roughie: Risk For Reward (No.16) — $13.75 / $3.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.30x
Why If the race breaks into groups and the wet steals confidence from the front, he can swoop in like a late-night taxi driver who knows shortcuts.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,5,2 / 7,3,6 / 3,2,10,7 / 3,4,16,15 (144 combos x $0.14 = $20.00) -- 14% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Profiteur's Fil (Race 3, No.10)✓ Won — $2.34
2 - Tiger Tie (Race 4, No.1) — $2.20
3 - Caishen (Race 7, No.3)✗ — $1.88
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Lismore is Soft 5, rail's got a little bite, and the track's basically begging you to trust pace and class, not vibes. There's rain lurking all day, so I'm treating anything that's quick early and can carry it through as gold, and I'm side-eyeing runners that look like they'll need a prayer and a clear lane to finish it off. This is the kind of meeting where a held-up turn turns your whole day into a suspicious autopsy.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Lismore, 1100m-1526m card
Rail: +2.5m 950m-300m, +1.5m 300m-W/Post (true remainder)
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Speed vs Stamina, plus a bit of "run-off-the-turn" help)
Weather: Shower or two, 19°C, wind up a bit, feels like 13°C (watch for the rain pop at the early and late window)
Early lane guess: On-pace lanes and closer to the rail in the straight, but with Soft 5 you still want a horse that can roll, not just survive.
Tempo profile: Generally moderate to genuine pace, with some races where speed gets bullied by the wet and slower starters drop out of the plan.
Jockeys to follow:
Jai Williams: aggressive positioning and doesn't mind driving a plan in awkward conditions.
Jasper Franklin: rides a heap, and when he's on one with a map, he turns it into business.
Andrew Mallyon: sneaky good in these country races, especially when the horse is in the right rhythm.
Stables to respect:
Stephen & Jordan Lee (5 runners): they've got a "prep-to-pounce" vibe, especially early in maidens and weak class.
M J Dunn (3 runners): often strong with horses that can handle wet ground and keep working late.
Peter Robl (2 runners): knows how to get one ready, even when the form looks a bit quiet.
Punty's take: Lismore on Soft 5 with that rail setup means the straight isn't free real estate. You want horses that can hit the line under pressure, not the ones that need everything perfect. The pace picture is your mate here, so when I see a runner mapped to lead or sit handy, I'm leaning in. When I see a drifter priced like they're being left for dead, I start circling because wet tracks love late action and chaos in the gaps.
And yep, market support is doing plenty of talking tonight. When something shortens like it's got unfinished business, I don't overthink it. I just ask one question, can it actually control the race, or is it hoping for luck like the rest of the donkeys?
What it means for you: Here's the game plan. Be brave early, especially in races where the "tempo and positioning" match up. Race 4 and Race 3 are built for that exact thing: quick movers with the ability to keep grinding even if the track gets rain-wobbly.
Then you protect yourself in the trickier middle. For Race 6 especially, it's a longish slog where backmarkers can get stuck behind the wet traffic. That's why I'm looking at horses that can do a job nearer the speed and still be running at the 100m, not just surviving the 1400m.
Lastly, don't go full hero in every race. Take your shots on the spine, sprinkle the roughies where the value is cooking, and let the rest come to you.