For all of Punty's tips for Kilmore, head to https://punty.ai/tips/kilmore-2026-10-30

Rightio Degenerates, Kilmore is sitting on a Soft 6 with 1mm in the last 24 hours and 50mm over the week, so the track has plenty of give in it and the wrong gear will get found out quick. Eight races, 93 runners and a card that runs from 1112m to 2012m. The horses at the top of my list are mostly first-up or second-up types, and the market has already made most of the favourites short, so there's room for a bit of mischief if you pick your spots.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Kilmore, 1112m to 2012m card
Rail: Out 3m 400m to 1600m, out 5m remainder
Official going: Soft 6 (1mm last 24 hours, 50mm last 7 days)
Weather: Fine, live gusts 20.4km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Races 1, 3 and 5 look slow to moderate on the map, Races 2, 6 and 8 are moderate with a bit of tug in them, and Races 4 and 7 are genuine with one clear leader. The speed is spread thin in the sprints and the middle-distance races are where the shape starts to matter.
Jockeys to follow:
Luke Currie: 8 rides today, including Adieu Grasse in Race 5 and Stuntman in Race 6, two of my better-leaning rides on the card.
Declan Bates: 6 rides, Saint Willo in Race 3 and Share The Stars in Race 8, and he is riding with a 9.6% strike rate at this track.
Linda Meech: 6 rides, headlined by Latassa in Race 1, who carries a 16.4% strike rate at Kilmore over 6349 rides and is riding hot at 20% over the last 100.
Stables to respect:
M Price & M Kent Jnr (5 runners): Latassa in Race 1 and Terracotta Warrior in Race 2 are both top picks, and the stable's trainer strike rate here is 15.7% over the last 100.
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (5 runners): Saint Willo in Race 3 is locked on, and Perfect Riposte in Race 2 and Vespasian in Race 6 are live in their own races.
M M Laurie (4 runners): Japanese Moka in Race 4 is the Big 3 horse, and the stable's form on the front is the reason it's on the list.
T & C McEvoy (4 runners): Manchego in Race 4 and Stuntman in Race 6 both come from this yard.

Punty's take: Where the speed sits is the first thing I look at, and today the card is more shape than sprint. Race 1 is a slow-pace maiden where nobody else wants the lead, which hands Latassa a cushy run from barrier 5. Race 4 is the genuine-pace race of the day with Japanese Moka the only horse on the map to lead it, and that's a race I'll be watching closely because the pace is the story. Race 7 is the one I'd leave alone, with the map showing Testing The Cugat as the only leader and no runner in the race with a locked price. Race 3 is slow on paper, but She Got Me Again and Pretty Stylish both want to be near the front from wide gates, and that could make the back half of the field very interesting. Race 2 is the one that gets the screenshot because Terracotta Warrior has blinkers going on first time and the market is building around him. Mystic Rapture carries a big map factor and the moderate pace suits the forward runners, so the Race 2 pace fight is a real tussle. The 2012m Race 6 is a trip race where the map shows a lot of midfield runners waiting for a move, so the sit matters more than the speed.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on the big-price winners where the shape helps, and protect the banker-ish races with the short prices. Race 1 and Race 2 are the two races where the favourites are short enough to matter, so keep your exposure there tight. Race 4 is where the value sits if Japanese Moka is the one that gets the front uncontested. Race 5 is the each-way race with the strongest shape, and Race 6 is a value race where the locked each-way bet is small and sensible. Race 7 is a no-bet race as the data stands, and I'd rather sit on my hands than force a wager into a race with no prices. The Big 3 are the spine of the day, so build your day around those and let the rest be a bonus.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Latassa (Race 1, No.6) — $2.85
Why Map sits him on the speed from barrier 5 in a slow-pace maiden where nobody else maps to lead, and he ran second last start at Pakenham Synthetic 1600m. Linda Meech's Kilmore strike rate is the cherry on top.
2 - Japanese Moka (Race 4, No.4) — $2.80
Why He's the only leader on the map in a genuine-pace race, and he won his last start at Bairnsdale 1200m. A 4kg rise in weight is the one thing to watch, but he's been best at lighter weights and he goes off as the one to beat.
3 - Terracotta Warrior (Race 2, No.8) — $2.35
Why He's sitting handy from barrier 3 in a moderate-pace maiden, and blinkers going on first time could sharpen him after 167 days off. The shape is neutral for him and the market has him as the one to beat.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × 18.75 = $187.50

Race 1 – bet365 Top Finishes Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1612m
Map & tempo: Slow pace on paper, with nobody on the map to lead and Latassa the likeliest to find the front from barrier 5. Akari Spirit and Blue Gamble sit midfield with no obvious path to the lead, and the back-half runners Hansard and Raisonic are drawn wide and need cover. The shape suits Latassa sitting handy, and it's the one race on the card where I'll happily let the favourite do the work.
Punty read: Latassa is the bet here, a slow-pace maiden where he's the most likely to get the front from barrier 5 and the map helps him. He ran second last start at Pakenham Synthetic 1600m and Linda Meech has a 16.4% strike rate at Kilmore. Akari Spirit is the danger from midfield, having run second at Bendigo 1600m last start, and Blue Gamble has the sectionals to get involved late. Raisonic is a drawn-wide long-shot with a weight warning on record, so I'd stay off him.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Latassa (No.6) — $2.90 / $1.40
Bet $13.00 Win, return $37.70
Prob 29.8% | Place: 63.4% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why Slow pace, the map puts him on the speed, and his last start was a second at Pakenham Synthetic. He's the one that gets the lead and the trip.
2. Akari Spirit (No.1) — $4.40 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Blue Gamble (No.9) — $4.60 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why Midfield runner with sectionals that show a good last 600m, and the closing run makes him one to watch in the placings.

Roughie: Southpole (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why Map unknown, so I'm not claiming a position for him. If the favourite gets rolled up in a slow race, a horse with a strong Kilmore jockey and trainer combo has a roughie's chance to nab the placings.

Race 2 – Robert 'Chappy' Chapman Memorial Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1462m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Dempsey, Mystic Rapture and Terracotta Warrior the likeliest to take the front, and Mystic Rapture is the one the shape helps most. Mystic Rapture is drawn wide at barrier 11 and has to work to cross, while Lady Blanc and Gypsy Moon are back-half runners who need cover. Terracotta Warrior from barrier 3 is the cleanest path to a sit behind the speed.
Punty read: Terracotta Warrior is the bet, sitting handy from barrier 3 in a moderate-pace maiden where the shape is neutral for him. Blinkers go on first time and the cross-over nose band goes on too, which is a change worth noting for a horse coming back after 167 days. Mystic Rapture is the danger from the outside, with the shape working for him, but he has to get across from barrier 11. Perfect Riposte and Diamond Virtue are the two most likely second-line picks, and Sir Riverance is the big-price shot if the favourite gets trapped on the fence.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Terracotta Warrior (No.8) — $2.35 / $1.32
Bet $13.00 Win, return $30.55
Prob 27.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 3 in a moderate pace, and the blinkers on first time could sharpen a horse who has yet to win on soft. The market has him as the one to beat, and I'm not arguing with it.
2. Perfect Riposte (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.85 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Diamond Virtue (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why 612 days off, so there's a real question mark, but the trainer is running hot at 17% over the last 100 starts and that's worth keeping on the list.

Roughie: Sir Riverance (No.3) — $13.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 13 with no career starts on record, so the path is thin. John Allen's Kilmore strike rate is the only real hook, and he's a bit of a punt rather than a bet.

Race 3 – Bryce Menzies Memorial Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1112m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with She Got Me Again and Pretty Stylish both wanting the front from wide gates, barriers 10 and 11. Those two have to work to cross, which means the pace fight could leave the cover to the back-half runners Riverlea Royal and Saint Willo. Saint Willo is midfield from barrier 12, and the shape helps him.
Punty read: Saint Willo is the bet, and the shape is in his favour from barrier 12 in a slow race where the forward runners have to work to cross. He's a first-up runner with a 4th at Bendigo 1100m on his record, and Declan Bates rides him. All Eyes On Erin and Lonnegan are the two that could run him down, with the Hayes stable and the M M Laurie stable both trying to get a run. Rwanda and Kirkstone are the back-half market fish to keep an eye on.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Saint Willo (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.90
Bet $15.00 Win, return $69.00
Prob 17.8% | Place: 48.2% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why The slow pace suits a midfield runner who can settle from barrier 12 and pick up the pieces. He's a first-up runner with a win on the 1100m soft record, and the Hayes stable is well placed to get him ready.
2. All Eyes On Erin (No.7) — $4.80 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 50.6% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Lonnegan (No.5) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why He ran third at Echuca 1000m last start, and the Kilmore combo with Damien Thornton is one of the better ones on the card.

Roughie: Youmanetic (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Map unknown, so I'm claiming no position. A slow race with the pace in the hands of the wide-drawn forward runners gives a lightly raced horse a bit of hope, and the J-HOT jockey tag is the reason he's on the sheet.

Race 4 – Bill Harding Memorial (Bm56)

Race type: Benchmark 56, 1212m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Japanese Moka the only leader on the map from barrier 7, and Manchego from barrier 2 is the nearest pressure. Lagunanini and Japanese Moka are both drawn wide and the shape helps the forward runners, with Lagunanini the one who gets the most out of it. Sistine Tunnel from barrier 8 is the back-half runner who needs cover.
Punty read: Japanese Moka is the bet, and it's a genuine-pace race with the only leader on the map. He's won his last start at Bairnsdale 1200m and sits in the best possible spot if the field goes slow up front. Manchego is the danger from barrier 2, with the pressure coming from the inside, and he's been underlaid at the top of the market. Lagunanini and Sistine Tunnel are the two closers who can run into the placings if the pace is as hot as it looks.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Japanese Moka (No.4) — $2.90 / $1.30
Bet $10.50 Win, return $30.45
Prob 29.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why Only leader on the map in a genuine-pace race from barrier 7, and Chelsea Thompson takes the ride for M M Laurie. The 4kg rise is the one thing I'd watch, but she's the one that controls the race.
2. Manchego (No.2) — $3.30 / $1.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.8% | Place: 62.4% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.45 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Lagunanini (No.9) — $4.80 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why He's a handy type from barrier 9 in a genuine-pace race, and Linda Meech has a 16.4% strike rate at the track.

Roughie: Golden Pulse (No.6) — $12.00 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why He's a midfield runner who can run on if the leader gets rolled up, and a 3rd at Cranbourne Training 800m last start gives him a bit of finishing kick.

Race 5 – Paul 'Pegsy' Egan Memorial (Bm56)

Race type: Benchmark 56, 1112m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with a lot of forward runners fighting for the front. Adieu Grasse from barrier 10, Strike Gold and Siriusly Bright are all drawn wide and must work to cross, which means the early fight is a messy one. The shape suits the handy runners and Adieu Grasse is the one who gets the most out of it.
Punty read: Adieu Grasse is the each-way bet, and the shape is firmly in his favour in a moderate race full of on-speed types. He ran third at Echuca 1000m last start and won at Tatura 1000m before that, with Luke Currie in the saddle. Siriusly Bright and Heidi Dancer are the two dangers from the handy line, and both have the trip to run into the placings. Divine Empress is the roughie on the card if the pace collapses in a crowded front line.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Adieu Grasse (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.65
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $43.88 if it wins ($31.50 win + $12.38 place), $12.38 if it only places
Prob 24.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.02x Steady since tip
Why Shape is in his favour, he's a second-up type with a Soft 3:1-0-0 record, and Luke Currie is riding a horse that has the trip in its back pocket.
2. Siriusly Bright (No.5) — $4.00 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.65x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Heidi Dancer (No.8) — $7.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers go on first time, and she's a handy runner who can run into the places if the front pair cook each other.

Roughie: Divine Empress (No.7) — $9.00 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why A soft-track runner with a Bairnsdale 1000m second last start, and T-HOT trainer form at 18% over the last 100 starts gives her a roughie's shot in a crowded front line.

Race 6 – Vin Loader Memorial (Bm62)

Race type: Benchmark 62, 2012m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with the map showing a lot of midfield runners and few outright leaders. Mozu Marcassin from barrier 11 has to work to cross, while Precambrian and State Of Affairs are back-half runners who need cover. Stuntman from barrier 1 is midfield, and the shape is neutral for him.
Punty read: Stuntman is the each-way bet in a 2012m trip race where the shape is neutral and the sit matters. He ran fourth at Ballarat 2000m last start and was second at Geelong 1700m before that, and Luke Currie has a 15.3% strike rate at the track combo with the T & C McEvoy stable. Vespasian is the danger from the handy line, with a first at Bairnsdale 1600m last start. Olney is the roughie with blinkers going on first time and sectionals that rank as the fastest on the card.

Top 3 + Roughie ($5.00 pool)

1. Stuntman (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.65
Bet $5.00 Each Way ($2.50W + $2.50P), collects $13.88 if it wins ($9.75 win + $4.13 place), $4.13 if it only places
Prob 22.0% | Place: 53.1% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why Neutral shape in a 2012m trip race, a 2nd at Geelong 1700m last start and a 2kg rise he's handled before. The sit from barrier 1 gives him the best chance of getting a trip.
2. Vespasian (No.5) — $6.00 / $2.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Superstock (No.1) — $3.60 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.62x Steady since tip
Why A 4kg rise, but he ran third at Cranbourne 2025m last start and has a Soft 17:4-1-2 record that is hard to ignore.

Roughie: Olney (No.7) — $9.50 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers go on first time, and his sectionals are the fastest on the card. A 3kg drop in weight after a 4th at Moe 2050m is a real reason to put him on the sheet.

Race 7 – Eric Buttler Memorial (Bm56)

Race type: Benchmark 56, 1462m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Testing The Cugat the only leader on the map from barrier 7, and First Tosen from barrier 8 is the nearest pressure and the one the shape helps. Titan Of Choice and Savethebesttillast are midfield with a bit of closing ability, and the back-half runners are drawn wide and need cover.
Punty read: This race is a watch-only event with no locked selections. The genuine pace and the single leader make it one to see how the early speed plays out. First Tosen is the horse the shape helps most and the one I'd want to see first, while Testing The Cugat is the leader who has to hold on. There's no price on the board for this race, so there's no bet from me.

Top 3 + Roughie

No locked selections for Race 7. No Bet on this race.

Race 8 – Stephen King Memorial (Bm56)

Race type: Benchmark 56, 1612m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Olympiad from barrier 3, Monsun's Pride from barrier 5 and Cable De Vega from barrier 4 all pointing at the front. The shape is against the midfield types, and Share The Stars sits midfield from barrier 6, which means he has to make up ground on the speed.
Punty read: Share The Stars is the bet, and the shape is against him at a map factor of 0.91. What wins it anyway is his form: he ran second at Warrnambool 1700m last start and was fifth at Ballarat 1400m before that, and Declan Bates rides for W Morrissey. He's a 3kg rise, but he's handled a bit of weight before. Left Hook is the danger from barrier 11, with the best tempo rating on the card and a 2nd at Sale 1717m earlier in the prep. Mahmudah is the one who gets a trip from barrier 9 and is the value in the placings.

Top 3 + Roughie ($5.00 pool)

1. Share The Stars (No.8) — $3.40 / $1.60
Bet $5.00 Win, return $17.00
Prob 20.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why The shape works against him, but a 2nd last start at Warrnambool 1700m and a 1400m 5th at Ballarat show he runs on. Declan Bates is a useful pilot and the Kilmore combo is at 3.1%, which is the one thing I'd want to see improve.
2. Left Hook (No.9) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.98x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Mahmudah (No.6) — $7.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why A 2nd at Kilmore 1457m last start and a 1-win-from-7 record at 52-58kg means the weight gets the credit. She's a value placing horse at the price.

Roughie: Dance Lady (No.3) — $9.50 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why A Kilmore 1600m first and a J-HOT rider in Teodore Nugent gives her a bit of a shot from barrier 10 if the pace collapses at the front.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Blinkers on first time for Terracotta Warrior
Blinkers and cross-over nose band both go on first time for the Race 2 top pick, after 167 days off with a 1st-up record of 1:0-0-0. Watch the market as the day goes on.

2 - Olney's sectionals are the fastest on the card
Blinkers go on first time for Olney in Race 6, and his sectionals show fastest for last 600m, last 400m and time. He's the roughie that could run down the favourite if the speed collapses.

3 - Five Hayes runners on the card
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes have five runners today across Races 2, 3 and 6, and I'd rather have five of their horses than most mates' Monday tips.

FINAL WORD FROM THE CHAOS KITCHEN

Kilmore is a Soft 6 with a fine day overhead and the speed spread thin, so the sit beats the sprint more often than not. Back the shape, keep the bets tight, and let the roughies earn their keep.