Wednesday, 16 September 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Bm68, 1400m
Map & tempo: Tuskegee (1.25) and Sir Jag (1.25) push it along, moderate pace, should be speed working early.
Punty read:
Simply Deep is the one that looks like she can hold the line without needing a perfect trip. Barrier 2 means you get to be part of the speed without doing anything stupid. Stardarmus has the tactical zip to sit around the right spots too, and Soft 5 at Launceston rewards that "run your race" style.
Sh'bourne Power is the kind of improver that can slot in mid and then keep kicking if the front two start to wobble. Tuskegee is drifting and that's telling you he needs the race shape to cooperate, but on this sort of track, races do cooperate for the right kind of on-pacer.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Simply Deep (No.2) — $2.25 / $1.32 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.75
Prob 37.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Speed map is sweet, barrier helps her sit close, and Soft 5 doesn't ruin her action.
2. Stardarmus (No.4) — $3.40 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 29.1% | Place: 61.1% | Value: 1.07x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Sh'bourne Power (No.3) — $3.90 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.4% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why He can run a cheeky race, but the value doesn't stack up compared to the on-speed bookends.
Roughie: Sir Jag (No.5) — $19.00 / $4.20 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.6% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.64x
Why He needs a miracle collapse up front and for everything to go right, otherwise he's just along for the ride.
Race type: Maiden Plate, 1100m
Map & tempo: Effrontery (1.25) has the pace edge, moderate tempo.
Punty read:
This is a sprint where position is king, and Lin Thizzy looks built for it. She's been clocking time and has the look of a horse that will cope with the Soft 5 sting. Red Winter is a live fresh-up type in the right way, and Copper Reign is there too, he just needs the race to not turn into a rocket.
Effrontery is the market magnet in this meeting, but when maiden tempo gets chaotic, you can get caught doing too much early. So I want the runner who can actually park, relax, and pounce.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Lin Thizzy (No.3) — $3.50 / $1.62 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$37.50
Prob 22.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why Sprint gears, time looks good, and she's got the kind of profile that runs on even if it's bumpy late.
2. Red Winter (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 61.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Copper Reign (No.8) — $4.40 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 68.4% | Value: 1.06x
Why He can sit in the right spot, but I'd rather have him as a place plan than an insurance bet.
Roughie: Effrontery (No.12) — $9.50 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.90x
Why Path is simple, if she finds the front clean and the race doesn't overcook, she can hang tough and steal it.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, on-pacers mix with midfield.
Punty read:
Sir William is the money magnet for a reason, but this race is the kind where one of the "almosts" can be there in the last 200m and take the plaudits. Unfiltered has shown enough to be in the mix when they don't go too hard too early, and Symphony Queen is the sort that can creep into the frame off a soft run.
Harrata's the roughie for a reason too, and the price says you can get a win if the race shape sets up for a late charge and the favourite's too short to forgive.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Sir William (No.3) — $5.50 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$58.50
Prob 30.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.18x
Why On the pace profile, and Soft 5 tends to suit runners who get balanced early.
2. Unfiltered (No.7) — $3.00 / $1.40 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.83x
Why A real chance — but at $1.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Symphony Queen (No.8) — $2.85 / $1.35 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.82x
Why She'll finish, but I'm not paying win money for a horse that needs the right lane at the right time.
Roughie: Harrata (No.2) — $13.00 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.5% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.94x
Why If she gets a cleaner run than last start and the field bunches, she's got the ceiling to win.
Race type: C2 Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Alisent (1.25) is pace advantaged, moderate pace.
Punty read:
This is the "open lane" quaddie leg kind of race, heaps of horses can race within themselves and still run on. Alpine Fury is the early speed story with the best chance to control the tempo from barrier 1. Rippington has the class and form line that says he can sit handy and then hit the line. Them's The Breaks is the grinder that can be there when others go searching.
Brave Jet and Royal Detective are danger spots if the race gets sticky, because Soft 5 makes late pushes messy, and the ones who keep finding it can jump up and surprise.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Alpine Fury (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$33.60
Prob 17.5% | Place: 60.5% | Value: 0.93x
Why Barrier 1 and on-pace profile on Soft 5, if he gets an easy lead early, he'll be hard to run down.
2. Rippington (No.3) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 56.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Them's The Breaks (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 54.5% | Value: 1.05x
Why Has the consistent "keeps coming" profile, and this track format suits horses who battle.
Roughie: Rare Oro (No.10) — $36.00 / $5.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 1.8% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.81x
Why He wins if the race falls apart late and the better performers get held up, massive longshot path.
Race type: C1 Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Dissalto and Just Plain Nuts up front.
Punty read:
This race is built for place leverage, because at 1100m on Soft 5, plenty of runners can run top 3 while the winner comes from a very specific spot. Miss Lyra is the one who keeps showing up and the price is still fair enough to be worth a place play. Alfarino is also in that "gets there" bracket, and Just Plain Nuts is the kind that might take on too much early and still finish top 3.
Rapids Ahead and Celestial Glow are longshots, but if the pace collapses, they can run on and fill, which is why the quinella types in your head can get real messy real quick.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Alfarino (No.1) — $3.20 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$19.88
Prob 22.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why Soft and sprint fit, and Alfarino's been consistent enough to grab a place even if the winner is elsewhere.
2. Just Plain Nuts (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.8% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.96x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Miss Lyra (No.5) — $6.00 / $1.85 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.40x
Why Great place option, but the structure is already covering the EW angle through Alfarino.
Roughie: Celestial Glow (No.9) — $12.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 17.5% | Value: 0.69x
Why Roughie path is late run and chaos at the front, but she needs everything to swing.
Race type: C1 Plate, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, middle group pressure.
Punty read:
This is where Vinraam looks like he's got the "do it comfortable" profile. He's got the right tempo for 1600m, and Soft 5 tends to reward a clean, balanced ride through the middle stages. Bella Chinkara is the danger, she's the kind that can sit back and still run into it if the leaders get a bit ragged.
Bailed is the market short one, and he's not a mug, but when you see a short-priced horse with this type of field, I like having at least one alternative plan. Little El and Outsidethesquare are your place fillers if the front starts to tie up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Vinraam (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 28.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.32x
Why 1600m on Soft 5 suits horses that can keep momentum through the middle, and Vinraam's that type.
2. Bailed (No.2) — $2.60 / $1.25 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.4% | Place: 68.0% | Value: 0.69x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Bella Chinkara (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 62.7% | Value: 1.19x
Why If you miss the winner, she can still pay the place dividend, but today I'm backing the main angle.
Roughie: Little El (No.7) — $10.00 / $2.65 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 0.95x
Why Roughie runs on in the right scenarios, especially if the race goes a touch slower and she gets breathing room late.
Race type: Bm64, 1200m
Map & tempo: The Wizard King is pace advantaged (1.25), moderate pace.
Punty read:
Megalita at 1200m is the sort of horse that just needs the race to stay honest. If she gets to do her thing early, she'll be the one battling at the line and not folding. Benefitsofmine is the main other threat because he can land in a good spot and keep grinding.
Zuni has value in the place lanes, and Billie The Great is the type that can show up with the right run. Eastcoast Miss is your longish roughie thought if the market overreacts to the speed.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Megalita (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 29.1% | Place: 60.1% | Value: 1.50x
Why Pace-friendly setup, Soft 5 suit, and she looks like she'll give you that last-200m fight.
2. Benefitsofmine (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 47.8% | Value: 0.86x
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Zuni (No.9) — $5.00 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 51.5% | Value: 1.10x
Why Not a win saver today, but a live place flavour if the race bunches up.
Roughie: Eastcoast Miss (No.7) — $13.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.23x
Why Roughie path is she finds a seam, the pace softens, and she sneaks into the first three like a back pocket bill.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,3,5 / 1,5,2,7 / 3,2,4,7 / 2,9,1,7 (192 combos x $0.26 = $50.00) -- 26% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Simply Deep (Race 1, No.2)✓ Won — $2.30
2 - Sir William (Race 3, No.3)✓ Won — $2.11
3 - Megalita (Race 7, No.2) — $3.90
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Launceston on a Soft 5 with the rail +5m, where the ground's a bit like custard and the race shapes matter more than your mate's tips from the bar. I'm feeling a day of "safe-ish early, then get weird late", with a couple of horses who look like they're built to wrestle in the mud and still hit the line like a fullback smashing a tackle bag.
This track at 1400m-1600m is basically a speed endurance test, not a sit-and-snipe party. You want runners with real early position, because on soft ground they hit the bit, then hold on and keep grinding. The pace will decide who gets to run for real, and who has to do the long walk home.
Now, I've got a clean spine today, Big 3 style, with the multi set to go hunting the "most likely winners" across the card. After that, it's race-by-race, top dogs first, then a roughie that could absolutely mug you if you blink.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Launceston, 1100m to 1600m card
Rail: +5m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Speed vs Grinding)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 13°C, gusts 27.8km/h, feels like 7.7°C (watch for Wind gusts rattling the settle)
Early lane guess: Middle-ish with early speed staying in the race
Tempo profile: Moderate pace, if it tightens early you want leaders and true stalkers, if it relaxes you can get midfield runners popping late
Jockeys to follow:
Luke P Dempsey: the kind of rider who gets horses into rhythm, Tuskegee and a couple of others look suited.
Troy Baker: solid on this type of track, and he's riding a few live chances across the day.
Craig Newitt: when there's money around, he's usually doing the job that gets the horse there.
Stables to respect:
Barry Campbell (2 runners): multiple bets in the same race frame, and he's got runners that like soft ground.
J K Blacker (2 runners): shows up with horses that can run their race, and they're not all "pricey failures".
S Gandy (2 runners): tends to place them right on the pace story, and soft ground suits his types.
Punty's take:
Race 1 is a classic "two legit on pace, plus one that can slot in and steal it" scenario. Simply Deep is the obvious market anchor, but I'm not ignoring Stardarmus either, he's got the tactical profile for a Soft 5 dogfight. Tuskegee is drifting and it's hard to ignore that move, but he's still got the right kind of on-pacer pedigree to be dangerous if the front two overdo it.
Race 2 is all about the debut and early set-up. Lin Thizzy looks like the one who can actually handle the sprint pressure, and if the race doesn't rocket, she's the "hit the line like a train" type. Effrontery's got the name, but you've got to respect that this is maiden chaos, so I'm leaning into the structure, not the dream.
Race 3 is where the favourite profile gets weird, Sir William is super short in the betting history but also the one everyone will lean on. I want the trifecta picture though, because Unfiltered and Symphony Queen can both run on late and fill while the market goes hunting the win.
What it means for you:
If you're playing it smart early, back the top picks in R1, R2 and R3 and let the day pay you while the ground does its thing. Then in the Quaddie block R4-R7, widen the coverage just enough to respect the open legs, but keep it tight enough to avoid pure mug territory.
I'm being aggressive with place leverage in the middle races where Soft 5 punishes late speed and rewards genuine rhythm. And in the multis, I'm picking the "likely winners" only, no dead-bets, no emotional purchases. If you want drama, we'll earn it with a roughie, not by forcing it.