For all of Punty's tips for Lismore, head to https://punty.ai/tips/lismore-2026-10-18

Rightio Loose Units, Lismore on a Soft 6 with the rain still doing laps, so expect everything to get a bit slippery and a bit mean. This is one of those tracks where if you get rolling in the right spot, you can cook the whole field, but if you're parked too far back you're basically doing a season-long subscription to disappointment.

The rails are doing their usual "help me, I'm confused" thing, +4.5m 850m-400m, then +1.5m from 400m to the post. That means positioning matters, and on a wet deck, the ones who stalk and keep their momentum are the ones who hit the line looking like they actually meant it. Pace is moderate early on most of the card, so I'm hunting for horses that can either hold the trip, or swoop right through the gaps without getting boxed in like it's a busy pub toilet queue.

My spine today is the Big 3, then I build lanes that respect that wet tracks punish overconfidence. There's value showing up at around the $2.50 to $4.80 mark, and the roughies are the ones that can sneak into the finish if the race shape goes slightly off-script. Basically, treat the day like a movie where the plot twists are minor, but the payouts are big because everyone else watched the trailer and panicked.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Lismore, middle-distance card
Rail: +4.5m 850m-400m; +1.5m 400m-W/Post; True Remainder
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play Wet-rail stalking, momentum wins)
Weather: Overcast, ongoing light rain (watch for footing holding and late wind gusts)
Early lane guess: Balanced, with a bias to on-pacing lanes where they can keep flow
Tempo profile: Moderate pace early, with wet-track pressure in the last 600m
Jockeys to follow:
Danny Peisley: rides plenty today, and he gets them into the contest early instead of "just having a crack".
Archie Mc Colm: clean meter, good timing, and he tends to turn races into journeys.
Violet Soulsby: aggressive in the run, especially when the barrier and tempo let her play.
Stables to respect:
M J Dunn (6 runners): often sneaks home with the fitter, more race-ready type on soft tracks.
Ethan Ensby (5 runners): persistent in this zone, and you can feel the intent when they send them out on wet days.
Stephen & Jordan Lee (5 runners): they know how to place horses where the track does the work, and not every runner is a throwaway.

Punty's take:

Lismore on a Soft 6 is all about the ground game. If you're stuck wide, or forced to go early without cover, the last straight bites. This card has a bunch of "workmanlike" types that can take a position, then keep moving when other blokes start stopping. You'll see it, the leaders drift, and the ones that are third or fourth in the run get the best look at the money.

Race 1 is set up for a proper battle between the on-pacers and the stalkers, and I reckon the market's a touch too shiny on the wrong horse because one of my lanes has the right map and the right excuses to bounce. Race 2 looks like a two-horse race pretending it's a team effort, and I'm all in on the one with the speed to control how the pack falls apart. Race 3, it's a maiden but it's not a lottery, the tempo and the way the trials and last-start shapes read says one horse is ready to go.

What it means for you:

Bet like the track is sticky and the race is chaotic in the finish. Go harder on the horses that can either lead on a smart, measured tempo, or sit in the pocket and travel through the slop without losing their rhythm. If a runner is priced like it should win, you still need to see the positioning plan, because Soft 6 makes liars out of "late closers" who never get a clear lane.

My plan for the day is simple. Lock the Big 3 win bets like anchors, then build around them with place pressure in the right races where the fields are smaller and the line is tighter. For the roughies, I want one specific thing to go right, and if it does, they're the kind of outsider that steals a win and makes everyone else's bet look like a typo.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Sunset Trail (Race 1, No.1) — $2.65
Why Maps to the ON-PACE lane, has the form to handle soft footing, and the market has it for a reason.
2 - Bills Angel (Race 2, No.6) — $2.50
Why The pace profile suits, and it's the kind of runner that wins wet class fights by not giving rivals an easy grip.
3 - Private Max (Race 3, No.3) — $2.85
Why Settles well enough, has the ability to overpower maidens once the tempo stays honest, and has the profile to break through.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × ~19.00 = ~$19.00 collect

Race 1 – Newton Denny Chapelle Country Boosted Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1536m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, ON-PACE leaders with stalkers live
Punty read: This is a "who travels clean through the sloppy middle" race. Sunset Trail (No.1) is right where it wants to be, ON-PACE, and with Soft 6 in play it's the horses that keep rolling through the bends that get rewarded. Latin Lights (No.3) is the main danger too, because it's got the speed to stay involved, and when these races stay moderate, the ON-PACE group does the work.

The wildcard story here is Turn Left (No.7), it's got the map and speed credentials to sneak into the placings if the on-pacers keep squabbling like mates at the pub arguing about sport trivia. Miss Midas Touch (No.5) is the one to respect for value, but it needs everything to go its way because it's back in the pack and the wet track usually makes late runs cost extra ground.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Sunset Trail (No.1) — $2.70 / place tote
Bet $15.00 Win, return $40.50
Prob 33.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.14x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE profile that suits Soft 6, and it's been running like it wants a fight from the front half.

2. Latin Lights (No.3) — $2.80 / $1.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.

3. She's A Dame (No.2) — $5.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 33.2% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why It can land in the top end, but today I'm letting the ON-PACE and the main danger do the heavy lifting.

Roughie: Spirit Fox (No.6) — $23.00 / $4.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.0% | Place: 5.8% | Value: 0.57x Steady since tip
Why If the leaders dump effort and lanes open late, this backmarker has the sort of wet-track swoop that can pinch a chunk of the quinella dream.

Race 2 – Somerville Laundry Lomax Plate (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 2120m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, two runners shape the tempo, others plug on
Punty read: This looks like Bills Angel (No.6) gets to set the script in a slow-moving 2120. On a Soft 6, if the pace doesn't kick, you still need good distribution, and No.6 is built for it. Zweigelt (No.5) is the obvious second act, it's also in the tactical picture, and when the speed is suppressed the classier types stalk and hit the line harder.

Desert Angel (No.7) is there for a value swing, but it's back in the mix and needs everything to compress. Sea Warning (No.3) and Mahuika Maroi (No.8) are the sort of backups for exacta or trifecta if the race falls apart early, but I'm betting they finish in that "third tier" where wet races often put them.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Bills Angel (No.6) — $2.50 / $1.80
Bet $15.00 Win, return $37.50
Prob 35.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.11x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE map in a slow race, so it gets every chance to hold momentum and grind rivals down late.

2. Zweigelt (No.5) — $2.80 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.0% | Place: 58.8% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.

3. Desert Angel (No.7) — $7.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why If it lands closer early it can make noise, but I'm not overcommitting without the pace certainty.

Roughie: Sea Warning (No.3) — $10.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why If the pace stays slow and it gets clear run mid-race, it can upgrade late and steal a place.

Race 3 – Northern Rivers Concreting Country Boosted Mdn Hcp

Race type: Maiden, 1220m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged runner sets up the sprint-lap
Punty read: Private Max (No.3) is the one I'm treating like a form-breakout. In a maiden over 1220 on a Soft 6, you want a horse that can do the job early enough without getting bogged. No.3's midfield map is perfect for that, and the last-start profile says it's ready to win, not just ready to show up.

Sparkling Betty (No.9) is dangerous because it has the sort of late-luck place profile where it can roll into a top three with a small lift. Encontre (No.1) looks like the "each-way could be live" type, and Checks'n'balances (No.6) is the honest grinder who can hang on for a show if the pace gets choppy. Ayaka (No.4) is also in the pocket of the finish, but today I'm leaning into Private Max and pressure underneath.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Private Max (No.3) — $2.85 / $1.35
Bet $13.00 Win, return $37.05
Prob 35.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.08x Steady since tip
Why It's got the midfield map and the tactical speed to win once the race turns from running to racing.

2. Sparkling Betty (No.9) — $2.90 / $1.37
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.9% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 0.74x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.37 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Encontre (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.35x Steady since tip
Why The wet-track and value angle is real, but the betting plan today keeps the cash anchored on No.3.

Roughie: Checks'n'balances (No.6) — $9.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 31.1% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why If the leaders tire and the ground is holding, this ON-PACE type can hang on longer than the market expects.

Race 4 – BASEC Engineering Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1420m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, mid-pack pressure with soft-track chances
Punty read: Captain Blood (No.9) is the key name. It's ON-PACE, has the profile to keep traveling on Soft 6, and when a 1420 stays moderate, the on-speed horses get the first bite. Cautionary Tail (No.1) can also make it a race, with ON-PACE map and a recent run pattern that screams "interference or bad luck" more than "no talent".

Togarashi (No.13) is the sneaky play in the finish, it's mid-pack and it's the kind of runner that can roll through the line if others get sticky. Notes Of Autumn (No.14) is back in the race, so it needs lanes and tempo help, but that can happen quick in soft conditions when the field strings out.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Captain Blood (No.9) — $3.30 / $1.57
Bet $13.00 Win, return $42.90
Prob 20.7% | Place: 63.2% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE profile in a maiden 1420, and it should get every chance to hit the line under control.

2. Cautionary Tail (No.1) — $4.80 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.65x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.85 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Togarashi (No.13) — $5.00 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.33x Steady since tip
Why Strong value read, but I'm letting No.9 get the full win focus, then I'll look elsewhere for wider prices.

Roughie: The Epic Journey (No.11) — $10.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.07x Steady since tip
Why It's got the "if it runs a clean race, it'll be there late" type profile, and soft track form can flip fast.

Race 5 – Austec Plumbing (Bm58)

Race type: Benchmark 58, 1320m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, leaders pressure from the front half
Punty read: Secret Rose (No.8) is the one leading my lane today. With genuine pace, the track can turn into a proper sprint-warfare, and this is exactly where on-pacing types can keep their rhythm instead of getting swallowed in the bog. Vetoed (No.5) is the other main threat, it's ON-PACE and it has the kind of consistency that can hold its line late.

Glam (No.1) is a value-leaning option that might get into the right spot through the first corner phase, while Highwire Girl (No.6) can also feature if it keeps going, because it's got the map profile and the right "wet sprint" look. Coco Jewel (No.11) is the roughie because it offers the dividend if the race shape gives it a crack late, even if it's not the easiest job from the market position.

Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)

1. Secret Rose (No.8) — $4.00 / $1.65
Bet $6.50 Win, return $26.00
Prob 17.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why Soft-track speed holds up at 1320 when the pace is genuine, and No.8 has the right trip.

2. Vetoed (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Glam (No.1) — $6.50 / $2.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.20x Steady since tip
Why It's a possible top-three, but Secret Rose is where the win plan sits.

Roughie: Coco Jewel (No.11) — $21.00 / $3.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.3% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 1.17x Steady since tip
Why If the leaders lose steam at the same time and the gaps open, it can smash home and wreck the trifectas.

Race 6 – PJ's Fruit & Veg (Bm58)

Race type: Benchmark 58, 1120m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, quick burn, quick finish
Punty read: This is a short-track grinder, 1120 where good horses win by managing their breathing, not just their talent. Shame On Sue (No.7) is more the "if it can hold contact" type, but the place and map stuff says it might be a bit tricky for a straight win. I'm leaning into the chaos that can suit Brief Authority (No.9), plus the pace profile that gives runners a chance to stay in the game.

Sun Sister (No.10) is a live threat too, because it's a leader type and those on-speed horses can survive Soft 6 better over 1120. Drahomira (No.6) is the value wildcard in the run, and if it gets the right run through the pack, it can jump lanes late and become everyone's "how did we miss that" horse.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Brief Authority (No.9) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet $12.00 Each Way ($6.00W + $6.00P), return $33.00 (wins) / $12.90 (places)
Prob 13.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.01x Steady since tip
Why Midfield with pace in play, and it should get a fair look at the line without getting stuck in wet traffic.

2. Sun Sister (No.10) — $7.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.21x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.

3. Shame On Sue (No.7) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why It's live for the finish, but it's not my chosen structure for today's plan.

Roughie: Thunderous (No.2) — $11.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why If it gets cover and then finds clear room late, it can run through the tired leaders.

Race 7 – Metroll (Bm58)

Race type: Benchmark 58, 1320m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, mid-pack sweeps, and the finish comes quick
Punty read: Zouthur (No.2) is the one I want on top. Even in slow-tempo races, the best horses are the ones that still find rhythm, and No.2 fits the "stays handy and grabs it late" profile. Langan (No.9) is the obvious danger, it's also got the ability to be in the contest without needing to win the entire race early.

Ludik (No.4) is a value play because it's soft-ground capable and has the right class to pick up pieces when others stall. Risk For Reward (No.13) is the roughie type, it's back in the pack but those late runs can happen on Soft 6 when the field strings out and the inside gets crowded.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Zouthur (No.2) — $4.80 / $1.95
Bet $10.50 Win, return $50.40
Prob 19.4% | Place: 53.4% | Value: 1.21x Steady since tip
Why Midfield map with a wet-track finishing style, and in a slow race it's perfect to keep getting closer without burning up.

2. Langan (No.9) — $6.50 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.43x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Ludik (No.4) — $7.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why It can run a race, but the win value is less appealing versus the main lane.

Roughie: Risk For Reward (No.13) — $9.50 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.26x Steady since tip
Why If it gets clear late and the tempo stays slow enough, it can swoop into the placings and maybe the money.

SEQUENCE LANES

Quaddie (R4–R7)

Smart: 9,13,1,11 / 1,8,5,6 / 9,10,7,2 / 2,9,4,13 (256 combos x $0.30 = $76.80) -- 30% flexi
Punty's take: Race 4 and 7 are wide-open enough that you need depth, while the middle legs are where the structure can hold. This is built for entertainment with a chance at a proper payday.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Soft 6 punishers love the pocket
If you're outside every run in Soft 6, you pay for it, so treat "travels with momentum" as the real class indicator, not just win history.

2 - The slow-pace legs set traps
When the tempo is slow, ON-PACE isn't always about leading, it's about not being the one who gets too far back too early. Zouthur and Bills Angel fit that vibe.

3 - Rail changes make the last 400m sneaky
With +1.5m from 400m to W/Post, the straight portion can feel fairer than the back bend, so horses that can keep a run at speed through the final bend tend to get the best path.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Soft 6 is the great equaliser, everyone else slips a bit, and the right horses slip forward instead. I'm anchoring the Big 3, then letting the lanes do the heavy lifting. Gamble Responsibly.