For all of Punty's tips for New Plymouth Raceway, head to https://punty.ai/tips/new-plymouth-raceway-2026-10-23

Rightio Degenerates, eight races, 85 runners, a Soft 6 with the rail out 7m and a cloudy sky over the Taranaki hills. Half the card is maidens and the other half is benchmark trash with a few decent horses hiding in it. Only two races have real prices on them tonight, so the money goes where the numbers are and nowhere else. Grab a coffee, get comfortable, and don't go chasing the sickos in the back yard.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: New Plymouth Raceway, 1200m to 2000m card
Rail: Out 7m
Official going: Soft 6
Weather: Cloudy
Early lane guess: Unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Races 1, 2, 5 and 7 are moderate paced, Races 3, 4 and 8 are slow, and Race 6 is the only genuine pace on the card. Race 6 is the chaos race with Spinayarn as the lone leader in a field of 14.
Jockeys to follow:
Craig Grylls: Six rides on the card, and he's on Our Edwardo at $3.70 in Race 2, the one I'm putting money on in that race.
Floor Moerman: Six rides, spread across Triple Jay Dee in Race 5, Malibu in Race 6 and Rua Rocks in Race 7. He's the bloke who gets every type of horse around the place.
Samantha Collett: Six rides, including I Promise at $1.90 in Race 4, the other staked horse on this card. She's on the front-runners of the Race 5 pack too (Hotprofile), so she's busy.
Stables to respect:
Robbie Patterson (8 runners): Eight runners today, the biggest string on the card. Our Edwardo in Race 2 is the one with the form and the trainer strike rate to back it up.
C J Henderson (4 runners): Scrittore, Jamaica Farewell, Rua Rocks and Heavy Is The Crown are all in the mix, so the stable has depth across four races.
J R Wheeler (4 runners): Scotty, Tommy Kelly, Bebeherb and Wyworry are spread across four different races, which tells you the stable is backing a few of them and hoping for a winner somewhere.

Punty's take: The speed is thin on this card. Races 1 and 2 have Super Patch and Our Edwardo both in the ON-PACE group, so the early pace is going to be sitting behind a fairly orderly moderate tempo rather than a sprint. Race 3 has Chica De Oro sitting ON-PACE with Palmarow BACKMARKER and Niagara Sky MIDFIELD, which means the race shape should set up for a wait-and-pounce finish. Race 4 is the slow one, with Rising Moon as the only LEADER and no real rival for the lead, so expect a crawl early.

Race 6 is where the chaos lives. Spinayarn is the only LEADER in a field of 14, and the speed rates are all over the shop. Wild At Heart is BACKMARKER and needs the race to fall apart up front, but Did The Trick and Shamwari are both ON-PACE and will be sitting right there when the tempo stops. Keen On Bubbles and Blue Rata Warea are also ON-PACE, so there's a lot of horses that want to be in the first half of the field. Race 8 is slow and Park In The Bar is the only BACKMARKER in a field where most runners are MIDFIELD, so that one could be a fun race to watch.

Race 7 is moderate with Liquid Les and Rua Rocks both LEADER, so they will bump into each other early. Meloni is MIDFIELD and has the form to be the one that gets the run, but there's no price on him yet.

What it means for you: The bankers are Race 2 and Race 3 in my book, with Our Edwardo and Chica De Oro the two horses I'd point at in those races. Race 1 is a lovely tight race with Super Patch and Borrowed Time at the top, and I'm backing Super Patch for a bigger chunk because the map and the form both point his way. Race 4 is a race to be patient in, with I Promise the only short-priced horse I'm willing to put money on. Race 5 is open, with Viridian the one I'd back and the rest of the field worth a look only for the roughies.

The chaos races are 6, 7 and 8, and there are no prices posted for any of them yet. I'm not putting a dollar on anything in those races until the market shows me something. Keep your bank nice and tight for the next few races and don't chase.

Race 1 – Denis Wheeler Earthmoving Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Super Patch is ON-PACE, Champagne Campaign is ON-PACE, Our Disco is ON-PACE, Borrowed Time is MIDFIELD, Acorn is MIDFIELD, Ashwyn is MIDFIELD and Another Code is BACKMARKER.
Punty read: Super Patch is the bet here, and it's a clean one. He's ON-PACE in a moderate tempo race, has a sound form run at Hawera, and the market has him right in the sweet spot at $2.90. Borrowed Time is the danger, a MIDFIELD horse who ran 5th at Waverley with interference and has been placing consistently at this level, so he's the one who can get the job done if the leader stalls. Our Disco is ON-PACE too and has the sectional speed to be dangerous. Champagne Campaign is the roughie that could sneak through if the early speed holds up.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.12 pool)

1. Super Patch (No.4) — $2.90 / $1.62
Bet $12.12 Win, return $35.15
Prob 34.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE in a moderate race, the form is solid and the jockey has a sound record at this track. He's the horse I trust most on the card for Race 1.
2. Borrowed Time (No.1) — $2.25 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Our Disco (No.3) — $5.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE and sectionals fastest in its last start, but it's a first-up horse with one start on soft and no placings yet.

Roughie: Champagne Campaign (No.7) — $11.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why If the speed stays honest up front he has a path from ON-PACE, and he's been bumped at his last start, so the excuse is there for him.

Race 2 – HEL Rimu Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Scotty is ON-PACE, Our Edwardo is ON-PACE, Terrific Guy is ON-PACE, Astronomer is BACKMARKER, Himatangi is UNKNOWN, Steven is UNKNOWN, Fleurs Star is BACKMARKER, Canshewin is BACKMARKER, Gaios is BACKMARKER and Scrittore is BACKMARKER.
Punty read: Our Edwardo is the bet. He ran 3rd at Waverley at his last start with 1.6 lengths to spare over the line, and the trainer has a strong strike rate at this track. He's ON-PACE, so he should be sitting in the pocket behind the leader. Scotty is the danger, he's had a few placings and a second up on soft, but I can't ignore that he has 0 wins from 4 at 65kg. Fleurs Star is the one I'm watching, the form has been hanging around the top half of fields.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)

1. Our Edwardo (No.2) — $3.80 / $1.65
Bet $8.50 Win, return $32.30
Prob 19.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE with a sound last-start effort at Waverley and the trainer is hitting at a real rate at this track. This is the one with the form and the lead-in.
2. Scotty (No.1) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.92x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Fleurs Star (No.8) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Third at Waverley last start was a strong run, but it's a 3kg rise and he's a backmarker, so he needs the race to come to him.

Roughie: Astronomer (No.5) — $18.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.13x Steady since tip
Why BACKMARKER with a bumped run at Waverley last start. If the leaders go too hard, the late run is there.

Race 3 – Entain/NZB Insurance Pearl Series (Bm65)

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Chica De Oro is ON-PACE, Whatz Done Is Done is ON-PACE, Niagara Sky is MIDFIELD, Major Houlihan is MIDFIELD, Alaskan is MIDFIELD, Madame Kiwi is MIDFIELD, Jamaica Farewell is BACKMARKER and Palmarow is BACKMARKER.
Punty read: Chica De Oro is the bet, and I'm backing her with real conviction. She ran 1st at Matamata at her last start, the trainer has a strong strike rate and the jockey is hot. The slow pace suits a horse that sits ON-PACE. Palmarow is the danger, BACKMARKER with a 1st-up record of 1 win from 4 and a run at Otaki that has excuses. Jamaica Farewell is a backmarker who needs to make up ground, but a win on soft at this level is a real plus.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Chica De Oro (No.3) — $2.30 / $1.15
Bet $10.50 Win, return $24.15
Prob 30.5% | Place: 59.2% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why Won at Matamata last start and sits ON-PACE in a slow race. She's the horse who is most likely to be in the right spot.
2. Palmarow (No.4) — $5.50 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Niagara Sky (No.2) — $6.50 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why MIDFIELD with a win and a placing on soft, and the jockey has a good strike rate with him.

Roughie: Major Houlihan (No.6) — $11.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 32.8% | Value: 1.14x Steady since tip
Why MIDFIELD with a first up win at Waverley last start. If the race is tactical and Chica De Oro gets pressed, he could come with a late rush.

Race 4 – ITM New Plymouth Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Rising Moon is LEADER, Grand Capitalist is ON-PACE, Evan's Gift is ON-PACE, Tommy Kelly is BACKMARKER, and the rest are UNKNOWN.
Punty read: I Promise is the bet at $1.90. He's a short-priced horse with no published form in the data, but the trainer has a solid strike rate at this track and the market has him as the clear favourite. That's a risk, and I'm not hiding it. Viridian is the second horse I'd respect, a short-priced horse with a strong jockey line. Rising Moon is the leader, and since he's a dual acceptor who's also in Race 5, he may not be where you expect.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. I Promise (No.2) — $2.05 / $1.08
Bet $13.00 Win, return $26.65
Prob 27.3% | Place: 60.4% | Value: 0.56x Steady since tip
Why The price says he's the one to beat, and the trainer and jockey combination has a decent history. He's a bit of a gamble with no form, but I'll pay the short price for him here.
2. Viridian (No.11) — $2.80 / $1.22
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.9% | Place: 52.5% | Value: 0.59x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.22 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. The Oh Gee (No.3) — $7.00 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why Robbie Patterson and Craig Grylls are a good combination and he's a maiden at a reasonable price.

Roughie: Grand Capitalist (No.4) — $10.00 / $2.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE and fastest sectionals at his last start, and he was raced wide at Taupo. He's the one who could get the run if I Promise gets stuck.

Race 5 – Grangewilliam Stud Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Triple Jay Dee is LEADER, Rising Moon is LEADER, Foreign Currency is ON-PACE, Hello My Dear is ON-PACE, The King Of Jazz is MIDFIELD, Molto Presto is UNKNOWN, Star Onehundred is MIDFIELD, Bebeherb is BACKMARKER, Hotprofile is BACKMARKER and Johnny Ripper is UNKNOWN.
Punty read: Viridian is the bet, with a 17.7% win chance at $3.50 and the market backing him for a reason. He's a dual acceptor who's also in Race 4, so check the jockey booking before you go. Hello My Dear is the danger, a fast-finishing horse with three seconds and three thirds from 11 starts, and the fastest sectionals in the race. Rising Moon has speed and the leader's spot, so the race could be set up for him to dominate early.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Viridian (No.13) — $3.50 / $1.62
Bet $10.00 Win, return $35.00
Prob 17.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.62x Steady since tip
Why The market has him as a strong favourite and the jockey and trainer lines back him up. He's the one who I trust in a moderate race.
2. Rising Moon (No.11) — $6.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 34.6% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Foreign Currency (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 34.5% | Value: 0.92x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE with a strong trial record and a third at Ruakaka, so he's the most solid of the chasers.

Roughie: Johnny Ripper (No.6) — $12.00 / $3.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why UNKNOWN map, but a 1200m sprint at $12.00 is a price that could pay off if the leaders go too hard.

Race 6 – Seaton Park Hcp (60)

Race type: Restricted 60, 1800m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. Spinayarn is the only LEADER. Did The Trick, Shamwari, Willoughby White, Keen On Bubbles, Blue Rata Warea and Rich Attitude are ON-PACE. Taupo Dancer, Malibu, Vespacian, Come To Terms, Timmy and Wuruhi are MIDFIELD, and Wild At Heart is BACKMARKER.
Punty read: This is the chaos race of the day. There's no price posted for any runner yet, so I'm not putting a dollar on anything here. Spinayarn is the lone leader and the weights are against him, with 0 wins from 6 at 58-68kg. Wild At Heart is the one I'd want to watch if the pace collapses, since he's a BACKMARKER with a win on soft. The pace is genuine, so the horses sitting ON-PACE will be under pressure early.

Top 3 + Roughie: No prices posted for this race, so no locked picks today.

Race 7 – On Track (Bm75)

Race type: Benchmark 75, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Liquid Les is LEADER, Rua Rocks is LEADER, Gold Currency is ON-PACE, Meloni is MIDFIELD, Fulla Grace is MIDFIELD, Rosesrred is MIDFIELD, Bruno is MIDFIELD, Kuroko is MIDFIELD, Because is BACKMARKER and Dojakata is BACKMARKER.
Punty read: This race is a two-leader set-up with Liquid Les and Rua Rocks both on the front, so the early speed will be busy. Meloni is the one the form points at, with a win at Hawera at his last start and a 3rd at Trentham before that. Fulla Grace has a first-up win at Waverley and is MIDFIELD, so the shape suits. No prices are posted yet, so I'm watching only.

Top 3 + Roughie: No prices posted for this race, so no locked picks today.

Race 8 – La Nuova Twilight Races Friday 20th November (Bm65)

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Wyworry is ON-PACE, Park In The Bar is BACKMARKER, and the rest are MIDFIELD: Sir Bruce, Heavy Is The Crown, Chart The Stars, Classy Brahma, Tokyo Hot Night and Scarlett Spell.
Punty read: This one is a slow race and the horses that get the run are the ones who can get into the race from the back. Park In The Bar is the only BACKMARKER and won at Woodville at his last start, so he's the one I'd want to see at the finish. Wyworry is ON-PACE and sits in the right spot for a slow tempo. Classy Brahma has been running well at Trentham and Hawera. No prices are posted yet, so this is watch only.

Top 3 + Roughie: No prices posted for this race, so no locked picks today.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Jamaica Farewell's weight warning
Jamaica Farewell has won 1 from 8 at 56-57kg and 0 from 2 at heavier weights. Race 3 has him at $11.00, so the weight matters.

2 - Scotty's weight warning
Scotty is 0 from 4 at 65-65kg, and that's a warning that matters in Race 2. He's on the board at $5.00 and I'm not putting money on him.

3 - Hello My Dear's soft record
Eleven starts, no wins, three seconds and three thirds. He's the horse who lives on the podium and never quite gets to the top step, a bit like a bloke who always finishes second at trivia night.

FINAL WORD FROM THE RATBAG REPORT

Two bets on the card with real money behind them, one short-priced favourite that I'm backing with my eyes open, and five races I'm watching from the couch. Keep your stakes sensible and let the horses do the talking, you bloody legends.