Saturday, 29 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Bm72 Handicap, 1800m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Doradus and Proxima Dea want the front end working early
Punty read: This is a race where the leaders get their chance, because it's genuine speed and Soft 5 doesn't kill the early boys instantly, it just makes everything louder. Proxima Dea maps right with the pace advantaged profile, and she's the kind that can tuck in and then knife through when the field tries to switch off. Doradus is the classic grinder type, he'll run his race too, and if you want a value wrinkle, The Iron Star's gear upgrade has "up the brained" energy, blinkers and visors screams "we're serious this time."
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Proxima Dea (No.10) — $3.90 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$29.00
Prob 28.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Pace maps perfectly, and she's the one who keeps her job when the ground turns into pudding.
2. Doradus (No.3) — $3.17 / $1.52 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.60
Prob 23.3% | Place: 66.0% | Value: 0.87x
Why He's building confidence, the run style suits and he's hard to knock out of the placings.
3. The Iron Star (No.8) — $7.70 / $2.50 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 44.3% | Value: 1.08x
Why Blinkers off and visors on first time can sharpen him up late, but I'm saving the stake.
Roughie: Channelling (No.13) — $15.50 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 19.2% | Value: 0.98x
Why If the race turns into a speed duel that collapses, she can pop into the finish, otherwise she's just chasing luck.
Race type: CHAOS_HANDICAP (C2), 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, condone on-pace, Sawmill and The Main Event want room and hope
Punty read: This is open, wide, and a bit like a group chat where everyone's confident and nobody's sharing screenshots. Xtreme has the profile to sit right on the speed and give a proper account, and the gear change tells me the stable wants to sharpen up, not just run around. Zalique is one of those "looks good, might be live" types, but I'm not forcing it at this stage of the day, Giddy Up Griff's there for the trip and a clean run. The danger is Whateley, because the map isn't terrible and the market actually respects the possibility enough to keep him from drifting into oblivion.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Xtreme (No.5) — $5.10 / $2.00 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net +$0.00
Prob 18.0% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.11x
Why On-pace, gear sharpen, and Soft 5 suits that kind of action where they can keep rolling through the line.
2. Zalique (No.6) — $5.05 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.92x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Giddy Up Griff (No.8) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.05x
Why He can hit the line, but I'm not paying twice for the same vibe.
Roughie: Whateley (No.4) — $14.25 / $4.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 17.4% | Value: 0.86x
Why If the pace softens and the middle of the field makes a break, he's the sort that can steal a tier.
Race type: Bm78 Handicap, 2000m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, this is a sit-and-strike distance
Punty read: When it's slow, you want the horse that can accelerate off a proper target run, and Aethelwulf is the one who's built for it. He's not flashy early, he just waits, then the Soft 5 gives him permission to loom late. Anthracite is the value-side of the story, and he's the type that benefits massively when others have to pass tired runners. Kenmare Bay is in the frame too, but I'm treating him as a watch, because 2000m on Soft 5 is where trips decide everything, and I want the picks I can actually press.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Aethelwulf (No.3) — $1.41 / $1.01 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$2.87
Prob 41.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.69x
Why Slow tempo, strong finish profile, and he fits the "wait and pounce" script.
2. Anthracite (No.6) — $8.05 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.38
Prob 17.1% | Place: 64.2% | Value: 1.64x
Why Soft track and a real 2000m turn of foot option, he's a genuine place-and-hope type.
3. Kenmare Bay (No.5) — $12.25 / $2.45 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.5% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.53x
Why He's live, but I'm concentrating the stake into the ones with the cleaner risk.
Roughie: Belle Detelle (No.8) — $12.00 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $1.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$1.50
Prob 10.2% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.45x
Why If the field stretches and she gets a gap, she can run into the money.
Race type: Bm78 Handicap, 1500m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so it's about who can put the throttle down after the bend
Punty read: Avista's the kind that can win races on Soft 5 because she has the right action to keep accelerating without needing the race to be fast. Transcend is next cab off the rank, and at his odds, that's place confidence with teeth. Scripted looks like he'll run on, but I'm treating him as a watch based on the place band angle. Beside The Ocean is dangerous if he gets into a perfect one-off sit, and Red Rags To Bulls is the roughie type where the race shape can give him a late lane.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Avista (No.5) — $3.50 / $1.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 26.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why Speed profile suits the slow tempo, and the Soft 5 lets her sustain the run.
2. Transcend (No.6) — $4.20 / $1.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.00
Prob 23.1% | Place: 64.5% | Value: 1.14x
Why He's got the closer type credentials, and he should be in the mix when the pace finally stops strolling.
3. Scripted (No.4) — $4.40 / $1.60 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.2% | Place: 57.4% | Value: 0.99x
Why He's credible, but the risk maths says don't force it.
Roughie: Red Rags To Bulls (No.10) — $13.00 / $2.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.9% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.91x
Why He needs the trip to fall in his favour, but he's not going to do it alone from the back.
Race type: Bm78 Handicap, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Steel Strike has the "run on" map advantage
Punty read: Mr Miller is the main act at the short end, he gets the right trip and he's been doing the right things without needing excuses. Puntin's the value play, he's got that pressure-cooker style where he can stick on when other on-pace types start sweating. Botanical Boy can do a lot right in these conditions, especially if the track is staying sticky and long. Stagnum's the sort that can creep into third money if the field breaks early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Mr Miller (No.2) — $1.94 / $1.14 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$9.40
Prob 30.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.71x
Why The on-pace map fits, and at Soft 5 the best runners usually keep winning if they do not overreach early.
2. Puntin (No.3) — $6.85 / $2.10 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 17.1% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.41x
Why Value on the place line, and he's the one who can stay in touch long enough to capitalise.
3. Botanical Boy (No.8) — $9.00 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.33x
Why He can run on, but I'm not stuffing the placings where it gets messy.
Roughie: Stagnum (No.11) — $10.00 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why If the race splits and he gets that follow-up lane, he's got the boots to be there late.
Race type: Bm78 Handicap, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders are honest and the sprint is real
Punty read: She's An Artist is the sensible one here, on-pace, proven at the distance, and the gear switch suggests she's ready to do business, not just "have a crack." Street Artist is the pocket rocket and Kimberley Secrets is the one who can nick a win if the front end gets checked by Soft 5. Lull is a roughie type, but I'm not forcing it, because in sprints you need both luck and acceleration, one without the other is how you finish two lengths short with your soul intact but your wallet sad.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)
1. She's An Artist (No.1) — $3.45 / $1.55 🏆 3RD
Bet $9.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.50
Prob 26.7% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.09x
Why Dash tempo suits her, and she looks like she's built to hold straight momentum through Soft.
2. Street Artist (No.7) — $3.20 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $2.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$2.00
Prob 24.6% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.94x
Why If the front end flattens, she's the one who can still find the sprint through the middle.
3. Kimberley Secrets (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.05 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.12x
Why She's live for the finish, but today I'm respecting the stake plan.
Roughie: Lull (No.11) — $11.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.13x
Why She's there if the race gets messy, but I'm not buying the whole chaos story for money.
Race type: Open, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, leaders likely to go early and keep going
Punty read: Savagram is the one I want in this kind of race because she profiles like she's ready to strike for a longer period, not just one kick. Plagiarism is the market's forward runner, he's got that "I'll be there when you look up" vibe. Savvy Diamond is the value flier, she's not cheap, but she's got enough profile to be dangerous if others get too comfortable. Outspan is the roughie and the type that can run on under pressure, but he needs the gaps to appear.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Savagram (No.9) — $3.85 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet $20.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$20.00
Prob 24.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why She's in the sweet spot for 1300m, the tempo suits and the finish looks strong enough for Soft.
2. Plagiarism (No.6) — $5.00 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.40
Prob 19.4% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.16x
Why A leader who can keep rolling, and Soft 5 often rewards the honest early patterns.
3. Savvy Diamond (No.11) — $14.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 31.2% | Value: 1.62x
Why Price is doing a lot of work, but her profile says keep her in your wider thoughts.
Roughie: Outspan (No.4) — $10.00 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why If the pace collapses late, he's got the profile to sneak in, but it's a get-through job.
Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Blue Door is the leader
Punty read: Blue Door is the one that makes sense, because he's got the lead and he's been doing it like it's his job. Guest House is the classy threat who can stalk and sprint back, and Warwoven has shown enough to take a crack at the placings, especially if the leaders go hard early and don't stop. Wild Atlantic is the wild card type, but on Soft 5 you want a horse that knows how to handle kickback, and Wild Atlantic is a bit of a "show me" at this stage.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Blue Door (No.6) — $2.42 / $1.14 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 40.6% | Place: 59.2% | Value: 1.12x
Why Front-running sprint on Soft 5, that is the dream scenario for a horse with early control.
2. Guest House (No.1) — $6.05 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $2.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.40
Prob 17.2% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.18x
Why If Blue Door sets it too hard, he's the one to pick up the pieces.
3. Warwoven (No.4) — $8.05 / $2.05 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.25x
Why Blinkers on can sharpen him, but I'm not paying the extra stake on a tight band.
Roughie: Revengeance (No.5) — $12.25 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.10x
Why He needs the lane and the race not to turn into a straight contest, which is always possible at 1100m.
Race type: Bm100 Handicap, 1500m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, multiple leaders early, so it's about who survives the pressure
Punty read: Fully Lit is getting the "this is the real race" label, and at this distance with hot early pressure, the one who's still up near the speed at the 400m usually wins. Althoff is the market favourite right on the edge of the backmarker story, but Fully Lit looks like the more reliable lead-in option. Run Harry Run is a play for the trip, and Rolling Magic gets a chance if the leaders start negotiating the last bend. I'm not chasing floaters unless they're truly on a better run path.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Fully Lit (No.3) — $4.75 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 29.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.63x
Why Hot pace helps his style if he can sit in the right pocket and keep responding on the turn.
2. Althoff (No.7) — $2.07 / $1.08 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.66x
Why A real chance — but at $1.08 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Run Harry Run (No.1) — $5.90 / $1.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 50.0% | Value: 1.20x
Why Good map and he can be in it, but I'm not forcing the stake.
Roughie: I'mintowin (No.6) — $12.00 / $2.55 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Needs the finish to open up and for the leaders to start dropping like prime-time TV plotlines.
Race type: Bm94 Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, on-pace control wins at 1200m
Punty read: Grand Impact is the kind of short-priced machine that keeps winning if the race is run honestly and not turned into a survival test. Cosmic Fire is the danger if he finds a pocket and the track holds up, The Three Hundred is value on the place line because he's got enough tactical speed to be there for the hit. Lisztomania is a watch, Monte Kate can sneak into a quartet like a villain in a superhero movie who actually gets the last laugh. But the main event is Grand Impact, and I'll stand on that.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Grand Impact (No.2) — $1.80 / $1.04 🏆 2ND
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 40.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.86x
Why On pace at 1200m on Soft 5 is gold, and he looks like the type to hit the line first.
2. The Three Hundred (No.5) — $8.30 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 14.4% | Place: 57.3% | Value: 1.40x
Why Place value with enough tactical zip to be in the right part of the track late.
3. Cosmic Fire (No.4) — $7.35 / $1.85 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.19x
Why He's got the class, but the stake plan says save it for the lanes.
Roughie: Monte Kate (No.11) — $11.50 / $2.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 29.1% | Value: 1.08x
Why Needs the race to fall into her rhythm, but that's exactly the sort of chaos 1200m can create.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,6,8,5 / 5,6,4,10 / 2,3,8,11 / 7,1,4,11 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.00) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 9,6,11,4 / 6,1,4,8 / 7,3,1,6 / 2,5,4,7 (256 combos x $0.08 = $20.00) -- 8% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,3,8,11 / 7,1,4,11 / 9,6,11,4 / 6,1,4,8 / 7,3,1,6 / 2,5,4,7 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Aethelwulf (Race 3, No.3)✓ Won — $1.41
2 - Blue Door (Race 8, No.6)✗ — $2.42
3 - Grand Impact (Race 10, No.2)✗ — $1.80
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Rosehill on a Soft 5 with the rail jammed +3m, it's the kind of day where you back the right bloke early and then watch everyone else get cooked in the slop. You want clean speed, you want horses that can keep travelling when the ground gets chewy, and you want value in the right places, not just because your mate said "looks good." Let's go.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Rosehill, 10-?m card
Rail: +3m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Digger on the outside, speed holds but only if they handle the kickback)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 16°C, humidity 61%, light wind, watch for holding ground turning into 'sticky' if it starts riding wet
Early lane guess: Skew towards on-pace and midfield runners who can still sprint late without needing a clear freeway
Tempo profile: Genuine early pressure, so the wheels aren't just for decoration, they actually matter
Jockeys to follow:
Zac Lloyd: likes to put them in the race and he'll take the pocket if it's offered.
Tommy Berry: when he's on a driver, the race becomes a job.
Tim Clark: very handy in these tempo set-ups, always hunting position.
Stables to respect:
John Thompson (2 runners): Doradus and a classic Rosehill-operator profile, they target this sort of tempo.
M, W & J Hawkes (2 runners): they're sneaky consistent in this sort of grade, especially when the track is doing the hard work.
Bjorn Baker (2 runners): when they land, they land with a clean turn of foot.
Punty's take:
Rosehill Soft 5 with a +3m rail means you get two different races, the inside race and the outside race. The inside is saving ground, the outside is getting a bit of crosswind and a bit more kickback, so wide runners need to genuinely travel, they cannot just be "hopeful." Pace is genuine across the card, so I'm not chasing backmarkers unless they've got a legitimate section to make up.
My spine today is built around three winners that map like they belong in the lead-up, Proxima Dea's got the high-prob "hit the line" profile, Blue Door is the kind of sprinter that makes time stop, and Grand Impact is the sort that keeps doing the job when everyone else is overcooking it. From there, I'll spread where the track's most likely to throw a curveball, because Soft 5 loves chaos, the bastards.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive in the races where the market has a reason to be confident, you're backing horses with the right run style for the ground. In the chaos lanes, don't chuck your life savings at a roughie, do a small, smart saver, because wide conditions and genuine pace can wreck the "usual" order.
Use the early quaddie and the quaddie legs as your fun insurance. The Big 6 is a laugh, a prayer, and a bit of maths, because later races at Rosehill on a heavy-ish surface turn into "who got the best trip" more than "who's best on paper."