Friday, 31 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged Sedduke
Punty read: This one's a proper "who can stay in their lane and not get squeezed" sprint. First Embrace looks like the one who's likely to hit the ground running with blinkers and the whole "wake up at Scone" setup. Banished is the other obvious threat, she's drawn handy and is primed to get within shouting distance and keep coming.
Foolish Notion is the danger if the speed stays even and someone has to find a second gear late. Puffin is your roughie type, it's a case of finding clear air in the straight and then letting it sprint through gaps like it's late for a pub meal deal.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.00 pool)
1. First Embrace (No.8) — $1.92 / $1.12 🏆 4TH
Bet $9.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 41.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why Blinkers and the way it maps says it'll be in the thick of things early and still strong at the line.
2. Banished (No.1) — $3.58 / $1.45 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.15
Prob 19.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.10x
Why Good draw, steady stalking role, and the market isn't pretending it's a fill-in.
3. Foolish Notion (No.2) — $8.35 / $2.40 🏆 7TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 10.3% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.57x
Why If they sprint even, it can arrive late enough to hit the placings, especially with recent runs showing competitiveness.
Roughie: Puffin (No.9) — $9.80 / $2.60 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 39.9% | Value: 0.91x
Why It's got the profile to swoop late, but it needs a clean run and the top three cover it.
Race type: MAIDEN, 900m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged Public Safety
Punty read: 900m and moderate tempo means the straight comes quick, so whoever can sit near the speed without losing ground is winning. Excels is the early call, it's sitting on the best part of the map and the market's treating it like a real player. Sir Boom A Lot is the tightener, can get a role and poke right where it matters.
Public Safety looks like the classic "place, not win" type at this price, but it still earns its keep if they don't sprint too hard early. Cyclone Jaz is the roughie angle, it's there for the upset if the race shape favours midpack swoopers.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Excels (No.1) — $2.15 / $1.13 🏆 6TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 35.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Maps to get control without needing to be a maniac, and it's got the polish of a horse ready to go.
2. Sir Boom A Lot (No.8) — $3.85 / $1.52 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.42
Prob 21.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why Market attention plus a front-running style means it can hit the line still there.
3. Public Safety (No.7) — $3.70 / $1.45 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.35
Prob 20.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.78x
Why The pace helps, and even if it doesn't win it can absolutely plug away for a top three.
Roughie: Cyclone Jaz (No.11) — $9.90 / $2.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 39.0% | Value: 0.73x
Why Needs the race to fall its way, if it does not, it's too far off the likely roles.
Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, leaders Oakfield Missouri and Yes To Infinity
Punty read: This is a speed map showdown where the leaders are the betting men's best friends. Yes To Infinity is set to do the job right, sit in the right spot and then knuckle down late. Nevermista is the value-style runner, drawn to run close enough to make it count.
Perfect Force looks like the right "if there's trouble, I'm there" placings option. Sapphire Kiss is your roughie, but it's more of a long-shot story, it needs to find clear air and the speed has to soften.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Yes To Infinity (No.6) — $2.27 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$6.98
Prob 39.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why This race shape suits a horse that can sit on the bridle, then fight it out in the final straight.
2. Nevermista (No.1) — $5.40 / $1.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$11.00
Prob 14.1% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.99x
Why Comes in from the right direction and can keep hitting the line if the leaders are pressured.
3. Perfect Force (No.5) — $4.15 / $1.62 🏆 5TH
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 13.4% | Place: 66.4% | Value: 0.72x
Why On-pace enough to be in the mix, and in these sprints that can be worth heaps.
Roughie: Sapphire Kiss (No.4) — $18.50 / $3.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.1% | Place: 19.1% | Value: 0.98x
Why Roughie win path is clear, but place cover is better from the main trio.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, pace advantaged Feuron, Emirate Star, Josain
Punty read: 1300m on Good 4 with genuine pace means you want runners who can handle a proper tempo, not just a soft lead. Courthezon is the standout type here, drawn to get a run and it's got the profile to keep grinding while others are burning.
Feuron is next best, it's on pace and has the class feel to keep going. High Grade is the value placings option, especially with gear first time, it can pop up at the right time with that jockey style.
Fawlty Affairs is the roughie, it has to do everything right because it's more midpack and needs the race to break its way late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Courthezon (No.8) — $1.99 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$8.40
Prob 37.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Rail helps it save ground, map says it's in the right spot, and pace is genuine so it gets its chance to run on.
2. Feuron (No.10) — $4.55 / $1.80 🏆 10TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 18.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why On the speed and drawn so it can keep working, not just follow along and hope.
3. High Grade (No.2) — $6.35 / $2.25 🏆 14TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 14.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why First-time blinkers with a handy-ish run plan, and with genuine pace around it, it can stay in the race longer.
Roughie: Fawlty Affairs (No.9) — $14.75 / $3.70 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.84x
Why Needs the pace to hold up just enough and a late gap to appear, that's the whole story.
Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged Celestial Deal
Punty read: 1200m on Good 4 is about who gets into the race before the straight arrives, then keeps finding. Beyond The Sky is the one, even with backmarker claims, it's got the speed ratings to click late, and the market has firmed it because it looks like it'll get room. Need A Miracle is the value swing, it's built to swoop, and when a horse has that "bide your time" vibe at 1200, it can turn into a nightmare for the leaders.
Celestial Deal is the short one and likely to be there early, but this is the sort of race where winning might be harder than holding a position. Supreme Statement has place claims too.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Beyond The Sky (No.4) — $5.90 / $2.25 🏆 9TH
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$8.50
Prob 14.8% | Place: 45.2% | Value: 1.13x
Why It's got the late run profile and this track setup lets the better closers hit the line, especially if it doesn't get trapped.
2. Celestial Deal (No.9) — $4.90 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 44.3% | Value: 0.93x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Need A Miracle (No.5) — $7.90 / $2.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 27.6% | Value: 1.34x
Why If it wins it pays, but you're gambling on late luck rather than a strong place lane.
Roughie: Simply Better (No.6) — $9.80 / $3.00 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.82x
Why For it to win, it needs a clean run and the leaders to set it up, otherwise it's cooked for value.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, pace advantaged Walk Like A Man
Punty read: Slow 1600 is where the place market gets weird in a good way. Valedor has the map and the profile to be there without having to do too much early, and when the tempo is soft, those stalking moves look magic. Aurora Effect is the other weapon, it's got the right finish style for a race like this.
Tacitly is the logical challenger for the Quinella types, but the win confidence isn't there at the price, so it's getting treated as a smaller place play. Magic Merlin is your outside roughie story.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Valedor (No.8) — $2.95 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$65.25
Prob 34.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Slow pace means it can settle and then reel them in with less early pressure, drawn and mapped to run its race.
2. Tacitly (No.6) — $1.94 / $1.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.66x
Why A real chance — but at $1.10 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Aurora Effect (No.12) — $7.45 / $2.10 🏆 8TH
Bet $8.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 15.6% | Place: 68.8% | Value: 1.52x
Why Pace doesn't force it early, it can float into traffic and then find a run for the placings.
Roughie: Magic Merlin (No.14) — $10.75 / $2.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.19x
Why Needs a late run plus some racing luck, nice if it happens, but not the lane I'm paying for today.
Race type: BENCHMARK 66, 1700m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, pace disadvantaged Fulmen Filou
Punty read: This is the kind of 1700 where the pace is slow enough to keep you in the race, then the last 400 decides everything. Feazabeel is the machine here, it's got the class and the settling rhythm to be dangerous when others are still chasing position. Ocean Tsunami is next, and if it finds a clear run, it can absolutely shove into the top spots late.
Sebilla is the place-and-hope type, and Ballinderry Sal is the roughie, it needs the long grind to suit and the race to shape for its finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Feazabeel (No.3) — $1.89 / $1.08 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 38.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why Slow tempo at 1700 plays to horses that can keep their rhythm, and it's positioned to be there at the death.
2. Ocean Tsunami (No.6) — $3.10 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.01x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place he's not a saver, he's a punt, and that's not a price I insure at. Watching, not betting.
3. Sebilla (No.4) — $6.55 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Place — Cashed, net -$0.53
Prob 11.9% | Place: 57.7% | Value: 1.03x
Why Can tuck in and pounce on the slow duel, place lane looks strong if it gets room late.
Roughie: Ballinderry Sal (No.2) — $10.00 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.05x
Why Roughie win path is real if it sneaks into the right part of the race, but it's got to be perfect.
Race type: CLASS 2, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged Bolt Away Now
Punty read: 1300 is all about who can handle the middle of the race, not just the start and the last 100. Lyon is the pick, it's got the finishing kick and it maps to get a run without burning up early. King Jerry is the danger runner, it's consistent and can stick close enough to not be out of it in the straight.
Bolt Away Now is the other key, it's likely to get a run on the pace and if the race stays compact it can absolutely hold for place. Quick Sharp is the roughie, it's drawn to be in the mix if the race goes messy.
Top 3 + Roughie ($23.50 pool)
1. Lyon (No.5) — $3.30 / $1.52 🏆 2ND
Bet $9.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 24.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Back on track it can finish, and with moderate pace it won't be fighting for air late.
2. King Jerry (No.1) — $3.45 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.50
Prob 19.6% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.89x
Why Draw and run style suit a top-three grind, it's the type that keeps showing up.
3. Bolt Away Now (No.2) — $3.88 / $1.62 🏆 10TH
Bet $4.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 18.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why Pace helps, and if it's within a length or two turning for home, it can be there.
Roughie: Quick Sharp (No.6) — $10.00 / $2.75 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.58x
Why It can win if the race opens up and it gets clear, but it's not the lane for this ticket build.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 8,1,2,9 / 1,8,7,11 / 6,5,8,1 / 8,10,2,12 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.84) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 4,9,5,6 / 8,6,12,14 / 3,6,4,2 / 5,2,1,6 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.84) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 6 / 8 / 4 / 8 / 3 / 5 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - First Embrace (Race 1, No.8)✗ — $1.92
2 - Yes To Infinity (Race 3, No.6)✓ Won — $2.27
3 - Feazabeel (Race 7, No.3)✗ — $1.89
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Scone is at Good 4 and the rail is True, so expect that "sit closer than you think" nonsense to win a stack of races. This track rewards clean passages and early positioning, the bloke who arrives last with nowhere to go cops it up the arse.
Today's got that proper "few obvious ones, then the gate opens and chaos crawls out" vibe. I'm building around a three-pronged spine, then using the roughies where the market's either missing gear changes or underestimating how these runners settle on a sunny Good 4. If the speed is there, we ride it. If it isn't, we pounce late.
Alright, let's get stuck in, race by race, like Legends at a barbeque with too many sausages in the pan.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Good 4, 800-1700m card
Rail: True
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Speed vs Position)
Weather: Sunny, 14°C, no rain, watch for a bit of late wind gusts (feels like 10.2°C), so the track plays fair but don't overthink the sprint kick.
Early lane guess: Lock in on-pace runners early, then let the outside run on if they get room
Tempo profile: Mostly moderate tempos, a couple of races have genuine pace on offer, but the "leaders don't rocket off" style means stalking wins championships here.
Jockeys to follow:
Kody Nestor: he often finds the right part of the track and lets horses build momentum.
Jay Ford: good at letting them travel and finishing when others are still arguing with the turf.
Reece Jones: when he's on a horse mapping for it, he does not waste petrol late.
Stables to respect:
Annabel & Rob Archibald (many): their runners are hitting form at the right time, gear and race plans align.
Brett & Georgie Cavanough (few): they get horses ready, and when they bring one in fitted, it usually holds together.
Nikki Pollock (few): steady performers with smart placement, especially when the market tightens.
Punty's take:
Scone today is the type of meeting where the rail being True tells you everything. The faster you can save ground, the more likely you're still rolling when the others are searching for space like they forgot where they parked. That means on-pace and stalking roles are gold, and the backmarkers need a clean run or they're getting cooked at the business end.
Race 1 and Race 3 scream "pick the one who maps and gets first crack at the finish." In the maidens, the market's pushing and the gear is loud, so I'm riding those signals like a madman. Then in the open handicap and the longer 1600-1700 range, it flips slightly, pace gets slower, and the place plays start to look way smarter than trying to be a hero for win money.
By the time we hit the back end, it's all about who's not going to get stuck. That's why Race 6 is an absolute place-leverage playground, and Race 7 has a fast horse who's too hard to ignore at the price it's sitting.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive early in the races where the top of the market is also doing the right map job, that's where you'll actually get paid without needing a miracle. If a horse is getting backed and it's drawn to travel, just get on. Don't overcomplicate it.
Where I'm being clever is the places. On a Good 4 with moderate tempos, your main danger is getting shuffled, held up, or boxed in late. So when the model says a horse's place chance is strong relative to the odds, that's where you bank a more reliable result. Win money is hard here, place money is the sweet spot.
Now, let's print the Big 3 spine, then hit every race with the top 3 plus one roughie that can still save your day.