Sunday, 11 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: MAIDEN, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, Akuma and Our Bully likely to lead early while others circle mid-field
Punty read:
This is a maiden where the "fastest early sectionals" type matters because it's not a rip-roaring sprint, it's a measured build-up. Duskaura is right there on the speed profile, but Rising Fortune is the one that looks like it gets the trip ideal, settle, then peel into a decision point. If the race doesn't overreact early, Rising Fortune gets first crack at the finish.
Meanwhile, Hope To Fly has the gear change angle with winkers first time, so if it spots room, it can run on and make the place-getters sweat. Forwarding is the roughie flavour today, it's got the blinkers one side only, and that's often code for "we'll try to focus on the task, mate", if it's wide it can still scrap for your money.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Rising Fortune (No.5) — $2.25 / $1.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$16.25
Prob 35.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.93x
Why Settles in the right lane for a slowish 1300, then starts rolling when everyone else is still thinking.
2. Duskaura (No.1) — $2.90 / $1.25 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.36x
Why A real chance — but at $1.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Hope To Fly (No.3) — $9.00 / $2.40 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.90x
Why Winkers first time can lift it late, but the win route is narrow from mid-field.
Roughie: Forwarding (No.8) — $8.50 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.53x
Why Needs the leaders to get it wrong or the speed to soften, then it's a one-run swoop job.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, French Riviera and Sleek 'n' Style likely in the midfield pressure
Punty read:
This 1100 is proper chaos by nature. Genuine Pace means the early speed horses are going to work, and when they do, the straight line punishes anyone who gets stuck behind. French Riviera is the kind of runner that can soak up that pressure and still deliver late, especially with the equipment changes doing their job.
Sleek 'n' Style is a live threat because its map profile fits the sprint shape, but I'm not chasing it as the main bet today. Castro is the value trap risk, it can run a good race, but if the pace is real, it needs clear air.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Sleek 'n' Style (No.13) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$15.00
Prob 17.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.75x
Why It's drawn to do the right stalking work, and with a fast-finishing sprint feel, it's got a strong place path.
2. French Riviera (No.8) — $4.80 / $1.85 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.03x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Castro (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.63x
Why Might be right there, but the sprint pinch from midfield can steal momentum.
Roughie: Best Defence (No.1) — $9.20 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.88x
Why If it repeats and finds a gap early, it's in business, otherwise it's a "needs everything to go right" job.
Race type: CLASS 1, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Italian Made and other forward types press early
Punty read:
This looks like one of those Class 1 races where the favourite's job is to control the race without getting too brave. Italian Made maps on-pace and profiles as the sort that stays in the right rhythm, then pounces when the pack starts turning into a queue.
Lope De Luna has that value win window, it's been around the mark and looks like it'll keep coming at the finish. Media Spin is the other one you don't ignore because it can sit back and still find the line when the tempo steadies.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Italian Made (No.2) — $2.70 / $1.35 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 31.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why The speed profile matches, and at this class level it's usually the runner with the cleanest plan that wins.
2. Lope De Luna (No.3) — $7.00 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.1% | Place: 59.2% | Value: 1.47x
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Media Spin (No.4) — $4.80 / $1.82 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 47.5% | Value: 1.01x
Why If there's a bit of a lull, it can crunch the line, but it's not the primary win angle.
Roughie: Ominous (No.9) — $9.00 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.85x
Why Needs a bumpy ride and then it finds the line late, otherwise it's finishing too far back.
Race type: CLASS 3, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, Nielsen Park and Snow Dog on the back half of the speed
Punty read:
Snow Dog is the standout feel. It's on-pace enough to not get trapped, and with visors on first time it's the sort of gear upgrade that can sharpen a horse into the race.
Nielsen Park is the consistent type, it can build position and keep giving. Tralee is the "don't dismiss" runner, it's got good place leverage because it's been hitting the board type lately, even when it misses winning. Yorkel is tempting for roughie reasons, but it's a tougher job from where it sits.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Snow Dog (No.3) — $5.50 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 23.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.63x
Why Visors on, keeps the right running rhythm, and the 1600 build suits a horse that can sustain.
2. Nielsen Park (No.1) — $3.20 / $1.52 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.8% | Place: 62.5% | Value: 0.90x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Tralee (No.7) — $5.50 / $2.05 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.94x
Why It can run into the top end, but it's not the cleanest win route.
Roughie: Yorkel (No.4) — $10.00 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.08x
Why If the leaders fold early, it can sneak into the money, but it's still a riskier run style.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Crusader Kings and Poisen Point apply pressure
Punty read:
Crusader Kings is your "get in early, don't overthink it" type. In a genuine pace 1200, a runner that maps to race in the mix has a massive advantage because it avoids the panic mid-straight. It's drawn barrier 8, still close enough to grab a position without getting sent into outer space.
Poisen Point is the other danger, it's proven enough and can give you a shock if it gets the right lane. Crook is a value place chance, and Orsum is the roughie if the race turns into a sprint contest at the front and everyone else starts fading.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Crusader Kings (No.1) — $2.40 / $1.17 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 30.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.90x
Why Speed, right tempo, and it looks like the horse with the least drama through the run.
2. Poisen Point (No.4) — $3.20 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.01x
Why A real chance — but at $1.37 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Crook (No.3) — $4.40 / $1.60 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.18x
Why Gets the right sort of track feel and can hit the board hard, but win is for Crusader Kings.
Roughie: Orsum (No.9) — $19.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.12x
Why Needs a pace collapse and the inside lanes to stay open, then it can genuinely swoop for money.
Race type: BENCHMARK 66, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, mid-runners like Moon Zone can sit closer than expected
Punty read:
Moon Zone is the one I'm circling. Even with a slow pace map vibe, it's the sort of horse that can press into the right spots and then take advantage when others start losing their kick. Talakai is the danger, but the value case is shakier at the price since it's not the most likely to win today.
Lang Park is a sneaky inclusion for exacta and place plays, it's the sort of horse that can keep grinding and pick up a piece late. Wanda River is also in the mix because it can handle the tempo, but today it feels like a second-tier threat rather than the headline act.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Moon Zone (No.9) — $7.00 / $2.40 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$2.60
Prob 17.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.50x
Why Slow pace suits its style, and the race shape looks like it gives it time to build into the finish.
2. Talakai (No.10) — $2.30 / $1.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.39x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Lang Park (No.5) — $8.50 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.14x
Why Great place potential, but Moon Zone is the better bet angle today.
Roughie: The Bentley (No.3) — $9.20 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.00x
Why It can run on with the right passage, but it's more of a chaos dependency than a clean win path.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, the leaders keep pushing, midfield pressure matters
Punty read:
Cuban Cigar is the centre of gravity. It's got the backmarker map profile, but in a 1600 with real pace, backmarkers aren't automatically cooked. They just need the run to open up, and this looks like it gives them the chance to do their thing.
Reset The Jazz is the other massive threat. If it gets the right tempo behind the early pressure, it can keep travelling and hit the line with authority. Micro Mikki has the right sort of finishing profile too, and it can sneak into the money if the leaders get a bit tired.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Cuban Cigar (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.55 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 26.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Genuine pace gives the backmarker a launchpad, and Cuban Cigar's class means it's built for this.
2. Reset The Jazz (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.0% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 1.37x
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Micro Mikki (No.4) — $4.40 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 62.9% | Value: 0.90x
Why It can run into the frame, but it's fighting the tide a touch today.
Roughie: Hollywood Gold (No.7) — $11.50 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.97x
Why If it gets a perfect run and the race splits, it can ping late, but it's not guaranteed.
Race type: CLASS 2, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Big Lon gets the speed press role, Fearn Trick is a leader type
Punty read:
Big Lon is your main win hope. It's on-pace enough to be in the right part of the race, and at this kind of 1100 it doesn't need a dream run, just needs to not get shuffled out of the contest. Fearn Trick is a real danger because it's likely to set the table, and with that sort of forward intent, it can easily pinch it right on the line.
Star Whisperer is the value place piece, and Kevin is the roughie because if the pace scenario plays out like a proper sprint match, it can sneak in and grab a slice.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)
1. Big Lon (No.9) — $4.60 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$23.40
Prob 20.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.22x
Why On-pace profile in a genuine pace race, and it looks like it holds station when the pressure hits.
2. Fearn Trick (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 45.3% | Value: 1.92x
Why A real chance — but at $2.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Star Whisperer (No.5) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.06x
Why It's the kind that can run a cheeky third, but I'm not overloading the ticket.
Roughie: Kevin (No.3) — $9.00 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.19x
Why Needs the right lane and a tempo that doesn't swallow the midfield, then it can grab some money.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,1,3,8 / 13,8,2,1 / 2,3,4,9 / 1,3,7,4 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.00) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,3,4,9 / 10,9,5,3 / 3,4,1,7 / 9,4,5,3 (256 combos x $0.20 = $50.00) -- 20% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,3,4,9 / 1,3,7,4 / 1,3,4,9 / 10,9,5,3 / 3,4,1,7 / 9,4,5,3 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Rising Fortune (Race 1, No.5)✓ Won — $2.18
2 - Italian Made (Race 3, No.2)✗ — $1.93
3 - Crusader Kings (Race 5, No.1) — $2.68
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Coonamble on a Good 4 with the sun cranking, this is the kind of card where the early speed gives you a free hand, then the backmarkers start auditioning for a late miracle like they've just discovered Netflix. Rail is True, track's dry as a Nun's crypt, so if you're not in the speed conversation early, you're gonna be playing catch-up with your heart rate.
I'm treating this meeting like a dinner party with two tables, the front table is full of horses that want to work, the back table is full of horses that want to keep their jobs. The ones to get stuck in early are the ones that map to lead or sit handy, because the straight line out of trouble is there for them, especially with Genuine Pace in a few of these showpieces. Also, there's enough price movement and gear switches flying around that the "obvious" favourite might cop a little bump of reality.
If you're chasing a spine, we've got one. Big 3, then we build. And if one of them does a weird thing, I'll blame the weather, the rail, or my life choices, whichever hurts most.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Coonamble, 1100-1600m card
Rail: True
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Fair, speed holds on)
Weather: Sunny, 29°C, watch for the track staying dry, no rain bullshit
Early lane guess: On-pace and midfield sit tight early, backmarker only if they're strong finishers
Tempo profile: Mixed tempo early, then lots of races where the front half can string out
Jockeys to follow:
Ms Shannen Llewellyn: Busy day, and she's the kind of rider who can place a horse, then keep it there.
Clayton Gallagher: Consistent speed influence, watch him when the map says "get cosy."
Ms Izzy Neale: When she's on, she tends to get a real crack at the right moment.
Stables to respect:
Connie Greig (10 runners): Keeps producing live ones, especially when the field spreads and you need a runner with a plan.
Brett Robb (7 runners): Gets horses ready to fire, and he can find the line when the race shape suits.
C Lundholm (5 runners): If there's a "looks one-paced but suddenly isn't" type in the race, it's often from here.
Punty's take:
This is a Good 4 where you can get away with being a bit forward, not necessarily bolting every second, just in the right spot. The tempo says slow-ish early overall, but don't get sucked into thinking it stays that way. A few races have Genuine Pace stamped all over them, and those are the ones where the leaders set the tempo, then the closers come in like a late-season cameo.
The other big thing today is that gear changes are doing heavy lifting. First-time blinkers, winkers, visors, ear muffs, all that equipment shuffle usually means "we're trying something", and Coonamble on a dry deck rewards the horses that actually benefit from it, not just the ones that wear it for fashion.
Also, watch the market moves. When a horse firms hard, it's usually because the trainer's intent is real and the race shape lines up. When a horse drifts hard, it can be pure psychology, but if it drifts while also looking like it needs a dream trip, that's when you protect your stake and let others be heroes.
What it means for you:
My plan is simple: be aggressive in the races where the map and class line up, and be cautious where the pace is likely to compress and you're relying on a backmarker threading a needle. Early in the card I'm looking for value that actually has a path to the front third of the field. Later races, I want the horses with the tactical gear and a draw that doesn't bully them into the worst part of the running.
Quaddies and Big 6s today are for the brave, not the timid. You can build a lane ticket that covers the "win" outcomes, but if you go too wide when the open legs are flying around, you'll pay for the privilege of watching it all fall one position short. Use the lanes, keep it sane, and let the bookies finance your confidence.