Sunday, 11 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: HANDICAP, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Prince Ragnar is the likely leader early, with Gold Keeper and Divine Inanna poised to press
Punty read:
Prince Ragnar goes in as the leader profile, and with interference excuses stacked up, he gets a "bounce-back tax" from me. But he drifted in the market, so I'll respect him, I won't chase him. On the other hand, Onemoretwomany and Divine Inanna have the right kind of legs for a 1200 where the leaders can get tired if they go in too hot. Oracle Son is the one I'm watching as a danger, but he's a backmarker needing the right sort of run.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Onemoretwomany (No.2) — $3.80 / $1.80 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 24.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.08x
Why The best value profile in the race, gets a stalking trip and has proven she can hit the line after a quieter start.
2. Divine Inanna (No.5) — $3.50 / $1.82 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.89x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Oracle Son (No.4) — $4.20 / $1.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why Dangerous if the pace develops clean, but he's more "run to get in the picture" than "run to win" today.
Roughie: Prince Ragnar (No.1) — $9.50 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.93x
Why If he gets away and the interference bounces off, he can surprise, but market drift says the margin for error is thin.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Diver Dan and Il Bello Beals are the on pace pressure horses
Punty read:
This is a maiden where I want horses that look like they can actually handle the grind. Andershine is the class of the field in terms of "place chance", and she should be in the right spot to at least run through. Diver Dan is the speed map angle, and even if he's not the finished product, he'll give something to chase. Beston Street is a live one if she can avoid trouble and get into her rhythm early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Andershine (No.6) — $4.20 / $1.72 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 20.1% | Place: 53.5% | Value: 0.85x
Why Strong place profile, should get a decent run from where she settles, and the gear up top suggests she means it.
2. Diver Dan (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.57 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 52.2% | Value: 0.96x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Beston Street (No.2) — $6.00 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.24x
Why Market timing looks solid, and she's capable of grabbing a cheque if the speed holds.
Roughie: Party In Paris (No.12) — $14.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.17x
Why If the race scrambles late, she's the kind of flyer that snatches a place, but she needs a very specific run.
Race type: MAIDEN, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, Just Petty Cash profiles as the one to carry momentum through
Punty read:
This is the one race today where I feel like backing the obvious is the move. Just Petty Cash is the "this is what she does" type. With a slow tempo, midfield runners who can transition clean are gold, and this girl looks like she's already doing the right things. Black Irish is the main threat, especially if she gets a saving run, while Diamas is the sneaky place chance that can sneak into the trifecta if there's any wobble.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Just Petty Cash (No.6) — $1.55 / $1.03 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 58.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.53x
Why Slow pace helps, blinkers OFF first time and she still looks like the one who can find the front late.
2. Black Irish (No.2) — $8.50 / $2.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.20x
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Diamas (No.7) — $5.50 / $1.62 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.54x
Why Can run into the money with luck, but the win line feels harder today.
Roughie: Pretey Royal (No.5) — $9.60 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 45.1% | Value: 0.70x
Why If the leaders get stuck and she finds a rail lane, she can figure in the trifecta, but she's the long way home.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, Truly Gallant is the class angle early with Aldezor stalking
Punty read:
When the tempo is slow, it tends to reward horses that can cruise and then pounce without burning the tank. Truly Gallant should get that. Aldezor is the danger, the sort that can sit in the right spot and then hit the gap when everyone else is still travelling on fumes. Le Troy is the best of the rest if you're chasing an each-way style outcome.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Truly Gallant (No.1) — $2.25 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 38.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Slow race, favourable profile, and his form says he can win with a smart ride rather than needing to sprint from the clouds.
2. Aldezor (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.8% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 1.10x
Why A real chance — but at $1.55 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Le Troy (No.8) — $9.50 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 36.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why Right kind of run pattern to pounce late if the leaders tire, but win value isn't there.
Roughie: Black Sands (No.7) — $19.00 / $3.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.2% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.12x
Why If there's a scramble and the pace falls apart, he's the outlier that can sneak into the trifecta.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate sprint tempo, Encosta De Money is on the front end while Clever Combat and others press
Punty read:
This is a sprint where the winner tends to be the one who gets to settle, not the one who fights for position and dies. Encosta De Money looks like the natural winner profile, and the track setup should reward his early momentum. Clever Combat is the main threat, especially if the race rhythm allows him to hit through without getting boxed. Nobildonna is the saver type that can grab a slice if the leaders wobble.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Encosta De Money (No.1) — $3.30 / $1.52 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 31.3% | Place: 52.4% | Value: 1.27x
Why On-pacer with the form to finish it off, plus he's coming into a race shape that suits speed staying power.
2. Clever Combat (No.5) — $8.00 / $2.40 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.41x
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Silver Livia (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.62 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.75x
Why Capable, but the win line is a touch exposed today compared to the top runner.
Roughie: Big Bopper (No.4) — $13.00 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.82x
Why Longshot route, he needs to improve a lot and get a clean lane early, otherwise it's just heartache.
Race type: BenchMark 58+, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate sprint, In Situ and the on-pace runners are setting the terms
Punty read:
This is one where I'm trying to be smart with how we bet. In Situ and Leonardo Da Grey are the ones who keep showing the ability to hang around and then turn it into money late. Simply Rosso is the big speed early type but she's got weight to navigate and the market isn't giving her a gift. Catch Carter sits right in the pocket, and if the pace gets too comfy, he can absolutely fill a spot.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. In Situ (No.2) — $3.30 / $1.55 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 20.4% | Place: 53.6% | Value: 0.84x
Why The on-pace profile is doing the work, and even when he doesn't win, he usually gives you a reason to breathe.
2. Leonardo Da Grey (No.9) — $5.00 / $1.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.8% | Place: 51.7% | Value: 1.25x
Why A real chance — but at $1.85 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Catch Carter (No.3) — $7.00 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.17x
Why Right running style to pick up spots, but this looks like it's between the top two shapes.
Roughie: State Of Fury (No.4) — $12.00 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.39x
Why If the race changes tempo, he's the value runner who can jump up into the finish.
Race type: HANDICAP, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate, with Cantilever and the mid-pack runners all lining up to attack the finish
Punty read:
The tempo looks like it'll allow Cantilever to keep building momentum. He's the type that can sit in a good rhythm and then keep finding enough late. Blood Saint is the one I watch for the heavy attack, Forbidden Apple can sneak into the trifecta with the right lane, and Bayhara is the kind of horse that keeps showing up when you think she's out of it.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Cantilever (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.57 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 30.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.24x
Why The on-pace plan looks solid, and this feels like his kind of 1400 where he gets to use his engine in the right part of the race.
2. Blood Saint (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.85x
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Forbidden Apple (No.7) — $5.90 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.77x
Why Place chance is there, win chance looks a stretch.
Roughie: Bayhara (No.2) — $10.50 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.99x
Why Needs a tactical run and room to hit, but if the race opens up late she's dangerous.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,2,5,8,7 / 1,2,5 / 2,9,3,4 / 3,5,7,10,2 (300 combos x $0.12 = $35.00) -- 12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Just Petty Cash (Race 3, No.6)✗ — $1.34
2 - Truly Gallant (Race 4, No.1)✗ — $2.20
3 - Encosta De Money (Race 5, No.1)✗ — $3.40
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Geraldton on a Good 4 with the rail out, mild cloud cover, and enough chitchat in the crowd to make every bloke think he's figured it out. I've had a stickybeak at the speed maps and the way these fields line up, and today feels like it's going to reward horses that can either hold position early or hit a clean lane late. No messing, we're playing the "get on" game where it counts.
The headline is this, my Big 3 spine is built on winners who look like they can actually control their races. Race 3 is a straight-up confidence thing, Race 4 is the leader you build around, and Race 5 is the class act who should get every chance to do his thing. Then we pepper the rest with value and the right sort of chaos, because if you're not slightly underdressed for the degenerate Olympics, what are we even doing?
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Good 4, 1200-1400m card
Rail: +2m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Fast-leaning, with leaders getting first dibs then the rail runners still fighting)
Weather: Cloudy, 17°C (watch for a bit of bounce early, track should stay honest)
Early lane guess: The middle to outside lanes, with leaders not getting steamrolled
Tempo profile: Moderate pace, so if you're off the speed you need luck, if you're on it you get first crack
Jockeys to follow:
Laqdar Ramoly: gets them in the right spots and can muscle through tight runs
Ms Tara Atherden: strong at setting up her own tempo, good hands early
Troy Turner: honest on-pace riding, usually finds his lane at the finish
Stables to respect:
R K Cowl (9 runners): lots of runners, plenty of chances, their horses keep showing up
Ms J Martin (5 runners): tends to target the right races, not just random entries
A L Bowtell (4 runners): when the market moves, she's usually got a reason
Punty's take:
This track is behaving like a Good 4 should, quick enough for speed to matter, but not so savage that you can ignore positioning. With the rail at +2m entire, I'm expecting the leaders to get first bite, then the "run on" types will still be alive down the straight. If you're clinging to a backmarker plan without a heap of pace pressure, you're basically hoping the movie ends early.
Race 1 looks like a typical bumpy-handicap pace puzzle. On paper it's wide open, but the speed map does give Gold Keeper and Divine Inanna a nice lane to operate. Still, I'm not paying overs for the drifting ones, Prince Ragnar drifted out and that's usually the market saying "hold my beer".
Race 2 and 3 are the big swing races for me. Race 3 is where you back the horse that looks like she's already learned how to win. Race 2 is a maiden where the betting might look spicy, but the form profile screams "value places, then pray for the win".
What it means for you:
Be aggressive in the races where my spine selections map to their jobs, Race 3, Race 4, Race 5. Those are your anchors. Then in the quaddie lanes, you don't just chuck in favourites, you cover the right set-up horses so you're not stuck watching your ticket do laps without a result.
Where punters get cute today is with the roughies that are drifting, or those without a clean run style. My advice, get on the horses that can either hold position early or come with speed at the right time. If it's all "maybe luckbox, maybe miracles", save your money.