Sunday, 11 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, leaders expected to press, ON-PACE types fight it out early
Punty read: This is a race where you want the horses with position, not the ones that get lost. Melodia Perfecta (No.3) maps right in the pocket, and the last couple of efforts look like it's been building, not peaking and fading. Azzucca (No.4) has the kind of Soft track profile where even if it doesn't win, it's usually still there to snag a slice of the finish.
The danger is any leader getting "handy" in a race that's genuinely going to be used, because Soft 5 punishes you for going too hard too early. I'm not overthinking The Adige drifting in and out of the market, I'm just focusing on the ones that look like they know where the line is.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Melodia Perfecta (No.3) — $3.00 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 32.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.19x
Why ON-PACE with clean recent rhythm, and it's got enough sectional bite to wear the race down.
2. Azzucca (No.4) — $3.10 / $1.72 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.06x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Liamena Avenue (No.8) — $4.80 / $2.25 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.83x
Why It can run on, but the win call has to be earned, and I'm not paying for "might" in a tight finish.
Roughie: The Adige (No.1) — $9.60 / $3.60 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.85x
Why If it's going to win, it needs the race to go wrong early for the front types, and Soft 5 makes that less likely.
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, some speed, mostly a "get position, kick late" job
Punty read: This 1000m maiden is where the wrong position gets punished hard. Forjori (No.9) is the kind that profiles to be around the mark and, with the Soft 5, it should still travel well enough to finish off. Highwire Artist (No.6) looks like the main threat for a place, while Entirely Oak (No.3) has the ON-PACE style that can keep picking up money.
Dubai Jorge (No.2) is the one I'm watching for a "surprise is still a win" type, with the gear change and the way it's been supported earlier in the week, but with this small field of confidence, I'm backing the cleaner headliners.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Forjori (No.9) — $2.50 / $1.14 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$22.50
Prob 38.8% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why On the right kind of speed map for a 1000m, and it looks made to finish strongly without needing luck.
2. Highwire Artist (No.6) — $3.90 / $1.52 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why A real chance — but at $1.52 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Entirely Oak (No.3) — $3.90 / $1.52 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.11x
Why Strong Soft run style and can sit on pace, I just don't want to overspend the exotics on a maiden.
Roughie: Dubai Jorge (No.2) — $10.50 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.06x
Why If it wins, it'll do it with authority from the back, and today that means more chaos than I'm paying for.
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1460m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, ON-PACE types set up the run, closers need clear air
Punty read: Inna Zou (No.2) is the one I want in my top layer. It's built for this sort of race shape, and the Soft 5 should help it keep going without turning into a one-paced slog. Pearler (No.3) is the one that can sneak into the finish off a good trip, but it's the kind of horse that needs the race to land exactly right.
Casino Shaw (No.1) has the map advantage with the way it can sit closer to the front, but if the tempo firms up, it'll get run down. The roughie Vanrosa (No.6) is the value bomb if it gets the run and starts sprinting when the others stop.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Inna Zou (No.2) — $2.80 / $1.22 🏆 7TH
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 29.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.01x
Why Backable tempo profile for 1460m on Soft, and it should get the right kind of run through the middle stages.
2. Pearler (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.35x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Casino Shaw (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.0% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.97x
Why It's got every chance to be competitive, I just prefer the safer storyline on Inna Zou.
Roughie: Vanrosa (No.6) — $18.00 / $3.70 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.93x
Why It needs tempo help and clear lane at the right time, the sort of chaos Soft invites.
Race type: Benchmark 74, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, on pace shapes matter, 1600m means one mistake costs time
Punty read: This is a classic Soft 5 1600m where the leaders can drift, but the horse that keeps responding under pressure is the one that grabs it. Rileycat (No.3) looks like the main "gets there and holds" type. Miss Stalwart (No.2) is the main market face, and it could absolutely win, but I've got Rileycat slightly better for the way the race should unfold.
Rocco Lini (No.4) is the grinder type who can pick up pieces, while Heart Balm (No.8) is the roughie for when the front bunch starts doing the dance before the turn.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Rileycat (No.3) — $3.10 / $1.30 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$3.67
Prob 29.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why It's got the class to stay involved on a slow tempo, and the Soft footing suits its grind-and-respond style.
2. Miss Stalwart (No.2) — $2.90 / $1.22 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Rocco Lini (No.4) — $3.60 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.4% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.92x
Why Can run into third and fourth, just not the top order for me in this setup.
Roughie: Heart Balm (No.8) — $10.00 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 32.1% | Value: 0.87x
Why If it's a surprise win, it'll be because the race pace falls apart and it lands a perfect timing run.
Race type: Maiden, 1460m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, longer run, place chances inflate, smart positioning pays
Punty read: This one is all about who handles the slow tempo without getting too far off the mark. The Hard Road (No.2) is the horse I trust to keep showing up through the middle and into the hit zone. Groundcover (No.3) is the big value place option type, and it's the one that can look like a deadset thing if it gets a clean run. Rapid Reigns (No.4) and Aquilino (No.6) both have chances, but they need everything to go right.
Mr Bazza (No.8) is a roughie that can steamroll underneath if the front bunch tires, but I'm not making it the centre of the day.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. The Hard Road (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.65 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$41.60
Prob 35.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.89x
Why Soft track and slow tempo suit it, it should be able to keep grinding without needing to sprint out of trouble.
2. Rapid Reigns (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 1.19x
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Groundcover (No.3) — $11.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 2.77x
Why The value is real, it just doesn't match the win-confidence line today.
Roughie: Mr Bazza (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why It's got the "sneak into it" path, but it needs the pace to collapse and the wide bits to go its way.
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1460m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, leaders involved, Soft 5 long-range tactics
Punty read: Diamond Frost (No.3) is the bet I want. It's got the kind of profile where it can sit handy and keep finding. National Asset (No.4) is the main danger, and Feedback (No.10) has the right sort of "could pop late" traits if it gets a run.
The market has Delago Serg (No.6) in the conversation and Tillman (No.7) can get involved, but I'm locking in the cleanest win story: Diamond Frost.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Diamond Frost (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 31.7% | Place: 53.7% | Value: 1.63x
Why Proven in similar conditions and should keep getting into the race rather than just finishing close.
2. National Asset (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.39x
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Feedback (No.10) — $4.40 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x
Why More for the minor end of the ledger, I'm not chasing value here.
Roughie: Tillman (No.7) — $12.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.09x
Why Needs everything to break his way, especially the tempo, on a soft 1460.
Race type: Benchmark 58, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, the front gets tested but you can still win forward
Punty read: Shaft Attack (No.1) is the one. It's got the early speed to land in the right lane, and at 1000m Soft 5 punishes slow starts, so being on the pace is half the job. Travelon Dory (No.4) and Shoreman (No.3) are the key threats, but Shaft Attack looks like the one who keeps pushing instead of fading once it hits the hard bit.
Media Coverage (No.8) is the roughie for the placey chaos, but my main money stays where the map and intent line up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Shaft Attack (No.1) — $2.90 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$28.50
Prob 45.0% | Place: 62.8% | Value: 1.58x
Why Barrier 1 and ON-PACE style, if it steps clean, it's hard to get past on Soft 5.
2. Travelon Dory (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.10 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.17x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Shoreman (No.3) — $4.70 / $2.15 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.82x
Why Live for a top-three, but the win priority stays with Shaft Attack.
Roughie: Media Coverage (No.8) — $12.00 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.94x
Why Needs a race-shape change and clear running late, could happen on Soft, but it's asking a bit.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,2,4,8 / 2,4,6,3 / 3,4,10,7 / 1,3,4 (192 combos x $0.10 = $20.00) -- 10% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Melodia Perfecta (Race 1, No.3)✗ — $2.60
2 - Forjori (Race 2, No.9)✓ Won — $2.48
3 - The Hard Road (Race 5, No.2)✓ Won — $2.65
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Queanbeyan on a Soft 5, True rail and a heap of go, this is gonna be speed getting wet and legs getting sticky.
7 races, 68 runners, 12 scratchings. That's a lot of bodies for a Soft track, so the script usually goes one of two ways, either the right horses are brave early and hold on like they mean it, or the whole field turns into a conga line and the slick-staying types pick you off late.
First thing I'm looking at is pace. The speed map says there's plenty of ON-PACE runners sprinkled through the card, and with the rail True, you want the horses that can either get there without drama or sit tight and still have a kick when the mud starts to talk shit. Second thing is market behaviour. Plenty of short-priced horses are getting backed hard, but a couple of drifters are screaming "tempt the legends, then let them down". I'm happy to play the ones with a clean job, and I'm happy to leave the wobblers in the shed.
Now let's line it up, my Big 3 spine first, then race by race like we're building a hot pie with cold steel underneath.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Queanbeyan, 1000m-2000m range m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Speed with a late stick, lots of staying trips)
Weather: Sunny, 20°C, humidity 39%, wind 18km/h NW (watch for gusts, could tighten up the track in bursts)
Early lane guess: Tight-ish with True rail, but Soft 5 lets off-leaders keep getting home if they don't get trapped
Tempo profile: Mixed tempo, with genuine leaders in a few races, and some stalkers who'll profit if the front runners don't sprint themselves into retirement
Jockeys to follow:
Amy Mc Lucas: rides a stack today, and keeps landing when the race shape suits
Glenn Cahill: steady hands, loves getting a horse into the right spot early
Coriah Keatings: strong gate-to-run control, especially when there's pace on
Stables to respect:
P J Facoory (5 runners): often turns up ready, and when they're short they're usually doing the job
J M Cleary (3 runners): keeps their runners competitive around this class band, especially when the tempo isn't chaotic
Greg Stephens (3 runners): likes to have them moving, and you see the right gear and intent more than once
Punty's take:
Queanbeyan Soft 5 is the kind of track where "finish" becomes a skill, not a guarantee. If you're trapped wide early and you're doing it tough, you'll feel it at the 600 and it's usually game over. So, I'm leaning towards horses that map to the speed or sit close enough to pounce.
Race 1 is built for a proper battle up front, and I'm backing the one that's already proven it can handle this sort of tempo without needing a miracle. Race 2 is a maiden, which means anything can happen, but Soft 5 rewards the ones that settle and kick, not the ones that go for a joyride.
From there, I've got a spine that looks like three horses who can win in different ways, speed, fitness, and that "gets the job done even when it's ugly" trait.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive in the early races where the map lines up with the market. You'll see me go hard with the top win plays, then use the roughie angle sparingly where Soft 5 gives those "late swooper" chances.
Lanes-wise, the Quaddie from R4 to R7 is the fun one, but it's still built like a smart ticket, not a "spread-the-confetti" dream. R4 and R7 look tighter, R6 is the wide scramble where you need coverage, because Benchmark races on Soft can turn into a survival contest.