For all of Punty's tips for Grafton, head to https://punty.ai/tips/grafton-2026-11-04

Rightio Degenerates, Grafton is a Heavy 8 with 27mm in the last week, so this is a swamp day and the form book will get rinsed. The rail's been pushed out and the rain is coming and going all afternoon. My read is that the speed is thin in the early races, the middle of the card has a few horses with real natural tempo, and the value sits with the punters who can tell a stayer from a wet-track tourist. Grab a coffee, grab a pen, and let's get into it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Grafton, 1020m to 2235m card
Rail: +8 metres 800 to the 400m, +5 metres the remainder
Official going: Heavy 8 (19mm last 24hrs, 27mm last 7 days)
Weather: Raining. 0.2mm rain since 9am, 0.2mm in the last hour, gusts 13km/h. Rain risk 40%+ at 08:00, 11:00, 14:00 and 17:00.
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Slow in Races 1 and 2, Moderate in Races 3, 5 and 8, Genuine in Races 4 and 6, Hot in Race 7. Only Race 7 has three genuine leaders on the map, so that's the race that'll be run at a proper lick.
Jockeys to follow:
Ben Looker: Six rides today, including Mosgiel Crystal in Race 3 and Via Vegas in Race 7. His track rate here is 12.7% and he's 22% over his last 100 rides, so the form is hot.
Andrew Mallyon: Four rides, and he's on Zweigelt in Race 1, Latin Lights in Race 5, No No No No No in Race 6 and Kingdom Undersiege in Race 7. Mallyon's track rate is 14.6%, and his combo with M J Dunn is 20.8% at this track.
Luke Rolls: Five rides, including Monaco Flyer in Race 3 and Grassburn in Race 7. Monaco Flyer's form at Grafton is the reason I'd keep an eye on him in that race.
Stables to respect:
M J Dunn (5 runners): Zweigelt in Race 1 and Latin Lights in Race 5 are the two that matter, and the stable has No No No No No in Race 6 as well. Trainer rate at this track is 16.7% over the last 100 runners, so they're the ones to respect.
C J O'Reilly (5 runners): Devil's Elbow and Uncle Darby'sdream in Race 4, Devil's Elbow and Uncle Darby'sdream in Race 6, and Spirit Fox in Race 8. Mostly long-priced, but Spirit Fox's price is shorter than the rest.
Jason Reilly (4 runners): Hotzino in Race 5, Trackhawk and Follow That Dream in Race 6, and Star Of Winston in Race 8. Star Of Winston is the one I'd be watching from that group.

Punty's take: This is a day for the horses who can handle the wet and the ones who want the pace to fall apart. Race 1 is a slow race where Zweigelt sits at the back, and the bloke on it, Andrew Mallyon, has the track record to make that work. Race 2 is a slow maiden where nobody wants the lead, and that means Insain Chaos can settle back and wait. The Race 3 map is a proper mixed bag, with Stormfield and All Too Sneaky on the speed that the shape works against, while Monaco Flyer and Pride Of Lanka are the ones the pace helps. Mosgiel Crystal sits midfield from barrier 5 and the shape doesn't hurt it.

Race 4 is a sprint where I'm Guessing has no company up front, so it'll be an uncontested lead on the map. The shape is against Sasqua, which is the staked pick, so that's a race where I'll keep the punt small and the price honest. Race 5 is Moderate with Latin Lights having barrier 1 and the front to itself, though the shape is a bit against it. Race 6 is the big field, 19 runners, and the shape helps No No No No No from the back. Race 7 has three leaders in a Hot Pace, and Rich Star is one of them, so the shape helps it. Race 8 is a Moderate pace where Star Of Winston sits midfield from barrier 8, which is the kind of setup that makes you earn the win.

What it means for you: Be aggressive in Race 1 where the price on Zweigelt is short but the map backs the win, and be careful in Race 2 where Insain Chaos has no wins from seven starts. Protect in the sprint in Race 4 by keeping the each way small and not chasing the roughie. Race 6 is a lottery with 19 runners, so the value is in a bet on No No No No No but without a big stake on the outsiders. Race 7 is the one I'd be watching closest, with the Hot Pace and Rich Star's shape working for it.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Zweigelt (Race 1, No.5) — $2.20
Why Back in a Slow race from barrier 7, the shape is neutral but the second at Lismore 2120m last start tells me the horse can finish off a run. Mallyon's track rate is strong and the market has firmed it from $2.65.
2 - Latin Lights (Race 5, No.2) — $3.10
Why Barrier 1 in a Moderate race where it's likeliest to find the front, and it's the best form on the card in a benchmark race. Mallyon rides, and the two placings over the last few starts say the horse is consistent.
3 - Insain Chaos (Race 2, No.4) — $2.75
Why The market has come in from $3.80 to $2.75 with a heavy move, and the horse has three seconds from seven starts. It's a backmarker in a Slow maiden, so it can settle and let the leaders do the work.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 18.76 = $187.60

Race 1 – CRJC AGM 25 November Plate

Race type: Class 1, 2235m
Map & tempo: Slow pace on paper, with nobody on the map to lead uncontested. Crunch Time from barrier 6 is the one most likely to find the front, and nobody is pushing it. That leaves Zweigelt from barrier 7 to settle at the back and then wait for the pace to come to it. The shape is neutral for Zweigelt, which suits a horse that can sit and run down the leaders late.
Punty read: Zweigelt is the bet. Mallyon has the horse covered, the second last start at Lismore 2120m is the most recent form, and the market has firmed from $2.65 to $2.20, so the money's coming. Crunch Time is the one who'll try to lead, and Swift Sovereign from barrier 5 is the danger in the midfield. Chayse 'n' Penny is the one I'd keep an eye on if the speed collapses, because it's been fast in the time.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Zweigelt (No.5) — $2.20 / place tote
Bet $15.00 Win, return $33.00
Prob 41.9% | Place: 57.7% | Value: 0.92x Steady since tip
Why Back in a Slow race from barrier 7 with Mallyon aboard, and the form is the best on the card in the sprint-to-staying range. The market is firming for a reason.
2. Swift Sovereign (No.4) — $3.80 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Chayse 'n' Penny (No.1) — $5.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 34.4% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 2 with a fast time rating. If the pace falls apart it can run late, but a slow start on its last two starts is the concern.

Roughie: Bastianini (No.8) — $11.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 4 with a sectional time rank of 3, and if the front pair go too hard, it can finish off the back.

Race 2 – Remembering Shirley Kelly CB Jacaranda Mdn Hcp

Race type: Maiden, 1725m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with nobody on the map to lead or sit handy. That leaves the field to sort itself out, and the back-half runners Prince Of Wants from barrier 8 and Royston from barrier 7 are the ones that must find cover. Insain Chaos settles back from barrier 6 and the shape is neutral for it.
Punty read: Insain Chaos is the bet. The horse is a backmarker who has finished close in three of its last seven starts, and the market has backed it in from $3.80 to $2.75. Bravo Six is the one I'd be watching in the midfield, and Atadcheeky is the danger if the race is run to suit a closer.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Insain Chaos (No.4) — $2.75 / $1.25
Bet $12.00 Win, return $33.00
Prob 27.1% | Place: 51.6% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why Heavy market move, from $3.80 into $2.75, and the horse is a backmarker in a Slow race. It's been close in its last few starts without winning yet.
2. Atadcheeky (No.6) — $4.40 / $1.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.60 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Bravo Six (No.3) — $5.50 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 1 with fast sectional times over the last start. The market has drifted from $4.00 to $5.50, which is the one drifter I'd be wary of.

Roughie: Anderlyn (No.7) — $13.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 22.5% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 3 with a 2nd at Casino 1400m last start. If the front runners tire, a backmarker in a Slow maiden can run late.

Race 3 – Remembering Victoria Moorhead (Bm58)

Race type: Benchmark 58, 1195m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, and the lead is up for grabs with Stormfield from barrier 2, All Too Sneaky from barrier 3, Dirty Does It from barrier 4, Monaco Flyer from barrier 6 and Pride Of Lanka from barrier 7 all in the mix. Monaco Flyer and Pride Of Lanka are the ones the pace helps, and Stormfield and All Too Sneaky are the ones it works against. Pride Of Lanka is drawn wide and must work to cross, and Hard Jakka from barrier 8 needs cover.
Punty read: Mosgiel Crystal is the bet, an each way from midfield off barrier 5. Ben Looker rides and the horse has a second-up win to its name. Monaco Flyer is the main danger with a strong Grafton track record and the pace helping it. Dirty Does It is in the mix as well, and I'm watching it closely because it's on the speed.

Top 3 + Roughie ($3.00 pool)

1. Mosgiel Crystal (No.7) — $5.00 / $1.75
Bet $3.00 Each Way ($1.50W + $1.50P), collects $10.13 if it wins ($7.50 win + $2.63 place), $2.63 if it only places
Prob 19.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 5, Ben Looker on board, and it's 2kg up but has been racing well in the 1400m range. The first-up record is only one win from one start, so I'm not hanging the stake on that.
2. Monaco Flyer (No.8) — $4.20 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dirty Does It (No.5) — $6.00 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 39.8% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why On the speed from barrier 4 with a fast final 400m in its sectionals. It's been bumped and held up in recent runs, so it needs luck to get the trip.

Roughie: Stormfield (No.3) — $13.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 21.6% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why On the speed from barrier 2 and the shape hurts it, but a tongue tie goes on for the first time, so it's a gear change to note.

Race 4 – Remembering Gae Palmer Mdn Hcp

Race type: Maiden, 1020m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with I'm Guessing the only leader on the map, from barrier 10, and it'll have the front to itself unless someone chooses to press. Symo's Boy from barrier 7 is advantaged by the expected pace and sits handy. Sasqua from barrier 13 is drawn wide and has to work to get across, and the shape is against it.
Punty read: Sasqua is the bet, an each way from a wide barrier. The shape works against it, but its freshest run is a second at Hawkesbury 800m, and I'll take that over a horse who's hit trouble in the last few starts. Symo's Boy has the trip and the pace, and its market has come from $4.20 to $2.75, so that's the one to watch closely. I'm Guessing is the roughie in the lead, a long shot with no company.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Sasqua (No.4) — $3.40 / $1.60
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $37.50 if it wins ($25.50 win + $12.00 place), $12.00 if it only places
Prob 25.6% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why The shape is against it from a wide draw, but the second at Hawkesbury 800m is its most recent run, and the place market undersells the horse.
2. Symo's Boy (No.14) — $2.75 / $1.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.55x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sideact (No.5) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 2 with a third at Port Macquarie 1000m last start. It's a placing horse in a sprint.

Roughie: I'm Guessing (No.10) — $10.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.54x Steady since tip
Why The only leader on the map, with blinkers off and winkers on for the first time. If it gets the run of the race, it can take the field along.

Race 5 – Jacaranda Crown - F&M (Bm58)

Race type: Benchmark 58, 1625m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Latin Lights from barrier 1 the likeliest to find the front and Bright The Sun from barrier 8 drawn wide and needing to cross. Turn Left is the one the shape hurts. The shape is against Latin Lights, but a horse from barrier 1 can get the trip, and Fiery Lass from barrier 11 needs cover to finish.
Punty read: Latin Lights is the bet, a win ticket on the best form in the race. Its last start was a second at Lismore 1536m, the Grafton 1700m win came in September, and Mallyon's track rate is strong. The shape works against it, but its form beats a moderate pace. Fiery Lass is the danger, and Tara Koda is the closer to watch.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Latin Lights (No.2) — $3.20 / $1.52
Bet $7.50 Win, return $24.00
Prob 29.8% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 1, its own pace, and the market likes it. The moderate pace is against it, but the form is the best in the race and the track record backs it.
2. Fiery Lass (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Tara Koda (No.8) — $6.50 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 34.3% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 4 with fast sectionals. It needs the pace to fall apart, so it's a closer to watch.

Roughie: Turn Left (No.10) — $9.50 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why On the speed from barrier 3, and the shape hurts it, but a second at Ballina 1590m last start shows it's competitive over the trip.

Race 6 – CRJC Life Members Super Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1195m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Stormy Martini the only leader from barrier 15, and it'll have the front to itself unless someone chooses to press. The shape is against Stormy Martini and against Symo's Boy and Mama Tried. No No No No No from barrier 17 is drawn wide and needs cover, but the shape helps it from midfield.
Punty read: No No No No No is the bet, a win ticket on a horse the shape helps. Mallyon rides, the trainer M J Dunn has the stable on song, and the Grafton 940m win in September is its most recent victory. Stormy Martini is the danger if it gets the lead uncontested, and Magic Snitzel is the closer to watch.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. No No No No No (No.2) — $2.70 / $1.40
Bet $15.00 Win, return $40.50
Prob 24.1% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 0.65x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 17 with the shape in its favour, and the last-start third at Eagle Farm 1000m was a fair run from a wide draw. Mallyon has the horse well drawn in the race.
2. Stormy Martini (No.14) — $3.60 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.58x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Symo's Boy (No.4) — $8.50 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.10x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 2 but the shape is against it, and the market has come in from $13.00 to $8.50, which is a fair move for a horse with a strong trainer.

Roughie: Magic Snitzel (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 8 with blinkers off and a tongue tie on again. The shape helps it, so it's the closer to watch if the leader is run down.

Race 7 – Jacaranda Cup (Bm82)

Race type: Benchmark 82, 1120m
Map & tempo: Hot pace on paper. Via Vegas from barrier 6, Rich Star from barrier 5 and Dizzy Dee from barrier 3 all map to lead, so there's a proper fight for the front. Rich Star is the one the shape helps the most, and the fight leaves a gap for the closers. Kingdom Undersiege from barrier 9 and Dune And Dusted from barrier 11 are drawn wide and must work to cross.
Punty read: Rich Star is the bet, a win ticket on a leader who gets the race it wants. The three-leader fight helps it, and the market has backed it into $3.70. Lady Wardell is the one who could run down the leaders from the sit, and it's three wins from six at this distance. Kingdom Undersiege is the closer to watch.

Top 3 + Roughie ($4.50 pool)

1. Rich Star (No.7) — $3.70 / $1.65
Bet $4.50 Win, return $16.65
Prob 18.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Leads from barrier 5 in a Hot pace, and the shape is in its favour. Its track record here is three wins from eight, and the market has shortened it.
2. Lady Wardell (No.1) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 45.8% | Value: 1.01x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Kingdom Undersiege (No.2) — $6.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 9, and the market has come from $9.00 to $6.00. The wide draw costs it ground.

Roughie: Grey Effects (No.3) — $9.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 7 and the Hot pace means it can run through the field late. Its Good record is one win from 14 starts, so it needs the track to suit.

Race 8 – Remembering Rowan Wicks CB (Bm58)

Race type: Benchmark 58, 1425m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Contaldo from barrier 10, Ottoman Empire from barrier 1 and Highland Hustle from barrier 2 the likeliest to find the front. Contaldo is drawn wide and must work to cross. Star Of Winston sits midfield from barrier 8 and the shape is against it, so it needs the front-runners to fight and leave the gap.
Punty read: Star Of Winston is the bet, an each way from midfield. Its last start was a win at Grafton 1420m, the best form it's shown, and Grace Palmer rides it. Who Loves A Harley is the danger from midfield, and Prince Of Prophets is the one from the back that can run on if the front-runners stop.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.00 pool)

1. Star Of Winston (No.2) — $4.80 / $1.82
Bet $8.00 Each Way ($4.00W + $4.00P), collects $26.48 if it wins ($19.20 win + $7.28 place), $7.28 if it only places
Prob 18.7% | Place: 40.2% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 8 with the shape against it, but a win at Grafton 1420m last start and two wins from four on good ground make it a fair each way.
2. Who Loves A Harley (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.05
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 39.3% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Prince Of Prophets (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 4 with a 3rd at Grafton 1181m last start. It can run on late if the front fight takes plenty out of the leaders.

Roughie: Spirit Fox (No.6) — $9.50 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 7 with blinkers and tongue tie both off for the first time, which is a gear change to note. It's been close in its last two runs.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R1–R4)

Smart: 5,4,1 / 4,3,6,7 / 8,5,7,3 / 4,14,5 (144 combos x $0.3472 = $50.00) -- 34.7% flexi
Punty's take: Zweigelt keeps R1 tight, but R3 and R4 are open enough that this ticket is about the wide spread. Flexi floor is 30%, and at 144 combos the payout depends on a $5 to $10 winner somewhere, so it's a play for the entertainment as much as the money.

QUADDIE (R5–R8)

Smart: 2,1,8 / 2,14,4,10 / 7,2,1,3 / 1,2,4 (144 combos x $0.3472 = $50.00) -- 34.7% flexi
Punty's take: Latin Lights and No No No No No hold the middle legs tight, and R7 and R8 are wide open. Two of the four legs are chaos, so the ticket is wide, and you need a longshot in one of the open races to pay well.

BIG 6 (R3–R8)

Smart: 8,5,7,3 / 4,14,5,10 / 2,1,8,10 / 2,14,4,10 / 7,2,1,3 / 1,2,4,6 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
Punty's take: Five of the six legs are chaos, so it's a lottery ticket. It's entertainment-only at 0.13% flexi, so bet it for the fun and not because you expect it to land.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Coco Dreaming gets the blinkers on for the first time
Blinkers go on first time for Coco Dreaming in Race 3, with winkers and ear muffs coming off. It's up 5kg from its last start and the market has it at $6.00.

2 - Gold Puma's market has halved
Gold Puma opened $23.00 and is now $11.00 in Race 5, with a heavy move on the board. It's a dual acceptor, booked for Race 8, so it's one to track in both races.

3 - Two $151 shots on the card
Uncle Darby'sdream is $151.00 in Race 4 and Finding Elle is $151.00 in Race 6. If you're looking for a roughie that can write its own ticket, that's where the bargains are, though I wouldn't bet them.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

The rain's making it a swamp, the market's making it a mess, and the punters who sit still and read the maps are the ones who'll come out ahead. Get your stakes on, keep them small, and let the Heavy 8 do its worst.