For all of Punty's tips for Northam, head to https://punty.ai/tips/northam-2026-10-25

Rightio Degenerates, Northam is a Soft 5 with overcast skies and nil rain, so the ground's been cut up and the speed is going to matter. Ten races, a card running 1000m to 1600m, and a heap of maidens that'll make you rip your hair out. Let's get into it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Northam, 1000m to 1600m card
Rail: True (no rail position given in the data)
Official going: Soft 5 (Rainfall: Nil)
Weather: Overcast
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Moderate in R1, R3, R6 and R10. Slow in R2, R4 and R8. Genuine in R5, R7 and R9. Only the genuine-pace races have a proper leader on the card, and the slow ones are where the backmarkers get cooked.
Jockeys to follow:
Chris Parnham: Eight rides on the card, including Properata (R8), Aberdeen Flyer (R9) and Dixie Doo (R10). He's 15.6% at this track (1365/8759), so he's the bloke to watch when the bell goes.
Jarrad Noske: Five rides, and he's on South Hoba in R4 and Squad Goal in R5, two of our locked horses. His record at the track is 6.8% for us, so it's a cheap ride, not a flash one.
Jason Lyon: Six rides, with Non Reflective (R3) in the Big 3 and Run Rupert Run in R1. He's 11.3% at this track (278/2469) with a hot last 100 rides (13%).
Stables to respect:
D & B Pearce (7 runners): Properata (R8), Jousting Sticks (R6) and Oly's Choice (R9) are the ones I'd be watching. They're the most runners on the card and the stable is putting plenty of numbers into the program.
Luke Fernie (6 runners): Deep Lyric (R6) and Non Reflective (R3) are the two ends of the Big 3 story, and Dont Wait For Luck (R9) is a roughie-type run in the same stable.
N D Parnham (6 runners): Consignment (R7), Multinational (R9) and Guarantor (R8) give them three decent shots across the back half of the card.

Punty's take: Here's where the speed sits. Race 1 and Race 6 are moderate, with Divine Mirage and Deep Lyric both on-pace and sitting in the box, so that's the first thing to note. Race 2 and Race 4 are the slow ones and the bar is set for a heavy ride on the lead. Race 4 is the key one: South Hoba is on the early speed, but the map says a slow tempo works against him, so if the field lets him roll he's a winner, and if someone comes at him he's in trouble. Race 5 has Money Manziel as the only true leader, which means it's a genuine pace race and the closers should have some fun. Race 7 and Race 9 are genuine too, with Market Snitz and Multinational both on the front. Race 3 is where the bunch goes chaos, with 15 runners and the favourite at $2.30. Race 6 looks like the banker, with Deep Lyric at $1.70 and a 43.9% win chance on the card. Race 8 has Properata at $2.40 on a slow tempo that suits his on-pace style, so that one's a bit of a fortress as well. Race 10 is the one that could wreck your week, with 15 runners in a moderate tempo and plenty of backmarkers who need the front to collapse. If you're here for the ticket, the thing to remember is that there are three races that look like bankers and four that will test the nerves, and none of it is a cruise.

What it means for you: Be aggressive in Race 6 with the win only on Deep Lyric, because the price is short and the form says he's the one to beat, but don't pretend the return is big. Protect your bankroll in Race 3, where the favourite is a $2.30 shot and the rest of the field has plenty of roughies that might get the job done. Race 4 is a race for a single win and that's it, with the value sitting with the horses that could get a run without the pace bogged down. Race 8 has plenty of room to get the place-only treatment, and the outside runners might be worth a look if the favourite drifts. The early speed should have a say in the ticket shape, but I'm not going to pretend the chaos races are easy money. The locked bets are the spine of the day, and the sequences are there to add some spice on top of them.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Deep Lyric (Race 6, No.3) — $1.70
Why The price is short, but he's ON-PACE in a moderate tempo with the advantage on the map, and the market and my numbers agree. He's been off 105 days, so that's the question, but he's the horse to beat on the card.
2 - Non Reflective (Race 3, No.10) — $2.30
Why Tongue tie off and winkers on for the first time, Jason Lyon is hot at the moment (J-HOT 13% over the last 100 rides), and he ran 3rd at Belmont Park 1000m last start. Midfield in a moderate race is a good place to be.
3 - Maybe Maybe Maybe (Race 1, No.7) — $2.75
Why He's 2kg lighter than last start, ON-PACE in a moderate tempo, and he was 4th at Ascot 1200m last start after being held up. His place rating is strong, which is why I'd rather have him each-way.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 10.75 = $107.50

Race 1 – Liquor Barons Northam Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Divine Mirage is the advantaged runner on the map. Maybe Maybe Maybe (ON-PACE), Run Rupert Run (ON-PACE), Divine Mirage (ON-PACE), Mr Kaplan (MIDFIELD), Sundae Swirl (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged) and Chantatious (BACKMARKER). Blindfolded and most of the rest have no map position claimed.
Punty read: Maybe Maybe Maybe is the staked pick, and I'm backing him each-way because the form is sharp (4th at Ascot 1200m last start, 2kg lighter than that run) and he's ON-PACE in a moderate race. The danger is Run Rupert Run, who's ON-PACE too and 5th at Belmont Park last start after being bumped. Mr Kaplan is the one to watch, held up in his last two and 2kg lighter. Blindfolded is the market's second pick, and the place rating is strong, so he's a horse to be near at the finish, not a horse I'm putting cash on. Chantatious at a long price is the roughie that needs the pace to collapse.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Maybe Maybe Maybe (No.7) — $2.80 / $1.32
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), collects $26.78 if it wins ($18.20 win + $8.58 place), $8.58 if it only places
Prob 32.1% | Place: 69.5% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Two runs back to form at Ascot, 2kg lighter, and he sits handy in a moderate tempo. Each-way is the right way to play a horse at $2.75 that's still got a question on the ground.
2. Blindfolded (No.2) — $2.60 / $1.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.6% | Place: 60.7% | Value: 0.61x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Mr Kaplan (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Held up in his last two runs, 2kg lighter than last start, and a decent price. If the moderate tempo gives him a clear run, he's the one who could run them down.
Roughie: Chantatious (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a moderate race, so he needs the front pair to go hard. He ran 5th at Belmont Park 1000m last start and is hot with the trainer over the last 100 rides (19%), which is the path if the front runners blow up.

Race 2 – Triple M Northam Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Ken and Spirit Of Dan are the disadvantaged runners on the map. Morikawa (BACKMARKER), Super God (MIDFIELD), Swing Bar (MIDFIELD), Ken (BACKMARKER), Spirit Of Dan (BACKMARKER), Venetian Prince (UNKNOWN), Sunblood (BACKMARKER).
Punty read: Morikawa is the staked pick. He's a backmarker in a slow race, which is not ideal on the map, but his form is the best on the card: 1st at Belmont Park 1000m on 2026-09-29, and 5th at Ascot 1000m last start. Barrier 1 keeps him out of trouble. The danger is Super God, who's midfield and has a soft 2nd at Bunbury 1400m on his CV, and Swing Bar, who's midfield and ran 2nd at Northam 1100m. Ken and Sunblood are the roughies, and Ken is a big price on a slow track.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Morikawa (No.4) — $3.20 / $1.45
Bet $13.00 Win, return $41.60
Prob 23.6% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 1 and the best recent form on the card. Slow pace hurts him on the map, so he needs the field to run into a fast finish, and I'll take that risk.
2. Super God (No.6) — $4.50 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Swing Bar (No.5) — $4.40 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 51.8% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Second at Northam 1100m last start, midfield, and the market has been backing him in. Jarrad Noske is only 10.9% at the track but this looks like a good spot.
Roughie: Ken (No.8) — $27.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.1% | Place: 16.7% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why Tongue tie on and cross-over nose band off for the first time. Backmarker in a slow race is not a recipe for a win, but if the pace is kind and the front runners stall, he could sneak into the frame.

Race 3 – AFGRI Equipment Northam Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Bush Bandit, Mystic Empress, Snippets Return, Binky's War and Raptor Not are the disadvantaged runners on the map. Our Mane Man (ON-PACE), Photosynthesis (ON-PACE), Ginger Ted (ON-PACE), Roccabye (ON-PACE), Snippets Return (ON-PACE), Non Reflective (MIDFIELD), Binky's War (MIDFIELD), Torque Of War (MIDFIELD). The rest have no map position claimed.
Punty read: Non Reflective is the staked pick. He's MIDFIELD in a moderate race, which sets him up well, and his last start was a 3rd at Belmont Park 1000m. Tongue tie off and winkers on first time is the gear story. The danger is Our Mane Man, who's ON-PACE with visors on for the first time, and Photosynthesis, who ran 2nd at Northam 1300m last start. The price on Non Reflective is short, so I'm backing him to win and that's the only bet.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Non Reflective (No.10) — $2.35 / $1.32
Bet $13.00 Win, return $30.55
Prob 35.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why Tongue tie off, winkers on, and a 3rd at Belmont Park last start. Jason Lyon is hot at the moment, and he's midfield in a race that's not going to be flat out.
2. Our Mane Man (No.7) — $3.80 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Photosynthesis (No.8) — $6.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE, 2nd at Northam 1300m last start (1.5L), and he's the one who has been running on at the finish.
Roughie: Bysin (No.12) — $9.50 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why The map has no position claimed, Chris Parnham is 15.6% at the track and the jockey and trainer combo has a 21.9% strike rate. He ran 7th at Belmont Park 1000m last start, so he's a longshot with a bit of a hook.

Race 4 – Avon Valley Toyota Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. South Hoba is the disadvantaged runner on the map, and so is Choux'n'whiskey. South Hoba (ON-PACE), On Cue (ON-PACE), Jesa Lupa (MIDFIELD), Secretchino (MIDFIELD), Astonisher (MIDFIELD), So Many Stories (MIDFIELD), Milly's Clever Too (BACKMARKER), Choux'n'whiskey (BACKMARKER), Good Show (BACKMARKER).
Punty read: South Hoba is the staked pick, and the slow pace is the problem I have to deal with. He's ON-PACE with the early speed on the card, so he can dictate if he gets the front. Last start was a 6th at Northam 1300m, and his form says he's a horse that can run. If the field lets him roll, he's a winner. If someone with more pace takes him on, he's going to struggle. On Cue and Jesa Lupa are the ones who can run him down, with On Cue ON-PACE and Jesa Lupa midfield.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. South Hoba (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.45
Bet $7.50 Win, return $24.00
Prob 20.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why He's the early speed on the card and he gets the front in a race that doesn't have much pace. The map works against him, but I'll take the chance that the field lets him get away.
2. Jesa Lupa (No.2) — $4.50 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. On Cue (No.4) — $5.50 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.01x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE, 5th at Ascot 1600m last start (2.1L), and Brayden Gaerth can get him into a good spot.
Roughie: Milly's Clever Too (No.8) — $12.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why She's a backmarker in a slow race, so the path is a messy finish with the front runners running out of petrol. She's got a 1 win, 2 seconds and 2 thirds record from 24 starts, so she can be in the finish if it gets rough.

Race 5 – CHC Hire Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. Money Manziel is the only LEADER on the map and he has the advantage. Kala Rose (ON-PACE), Zali's Gift (ON-PACE), Spiritart (MIDFIELD), Squad Goal (MIDFIELD), Arrestedevelopment (MIDFIELD), Sandy Cheeks (MIDFIELD), Fierce Red (BACKMARKER), Dancing Spirit (BACKMARKER), Cool Lu (BACKMARKER).
Punty read: Squad Goal is the staked pick, and I like him because he's midfield in a genuine pace race where the leaders are going to have to work. He ran 2nd at Northam 1600m last start (0.3L) and he's gone well at Northam over the trip. The danger is Arrestedevelopment, midfield and wearing ear muffs for the first time, and Zali's Gift, who's ON-PACE and will be sitting near Money Manziel. Money Manziel up front is the one who could hold on if the tempo doesn't kill him.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.50 pool)

1. Squad Goal (No.8) — $4.20 / $1.80
Bet $12.50 Win, return $52.50
Prob 16.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why Second at Northam 1600m last start (0.3L) and his track form is good, so the price is fair for a horse that can finish. Midfield in a genuine pace race is where you want to be.
2. Arrestedevelopment (No.10) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.14x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Zali's Gift (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE, Lucy Fiore is 13% at the track, and the form is solid with a 6th at Bunbury last start.
Roughie: Sweeter (No.3) — $10.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Tongue tie on for the first time, Chris Parnham is 15.6% at the track, and the last start was a 3rd at Lark Hill 930m. He's a long shot and the map gives him no claim, so he needs the race to fall his way.

Race 6 – Swan Draught Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. My Testimony and Is This Thing On are the leaders on the card. Deep Lyric (ON-PACE, advantaged), Kazzamatazz (ON-PACE, advantaged), Da Hinchi Belle (ON-PACE), Salve Regina (ON-PACE), Maestra (BACKMARKER, disadvantaged), Our Spiceman (MIDFIELD), Extreme Makeover (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged).
Punty read: Deep Lyric is the staked pick and I'm backing him to win, because he has the map advantage in a moderate race and the best form on the card. He's been off 105 days and he's a first-up runner, so there's a question. Is This Thing On and My Testimony are the leaders who could set it up for him, or cook him if they go too hard. Our Spiceman is the midfield runner who could come late if the pace turns into a sprint.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Deep Lyric (No.3) — $1.70 / $1.14
Bet $15.00 Win, return $25.50
Prob 43.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why Advantaged on the map in a moderate tempo and sitting just off the lead. The price is short, so this is a bet for the win and a strong one at that, but there's no big return in it.
2. Is This Thing On (No.11) — $10.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 42.6% | Value: 1.02x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Jousting Sticks (No.9) — $9.00 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Won at Lark Hill 930m last start, Brad Parnham has a 13.7% combo with the trainer, and he's a price that could run well if the pace holds up.
Roughie: Our Spiceman (No.7) — $14.00 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a moderate race and a 2nd at Belmont Park 1000m last start. If the leaders go hard he can run through the field, and the jockey and trainer combo has a 29.6% strike rate.

Race 7 – Western Racepix Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. Market Snitz is the leader on the card. Market Snitz (LEADER, advantaged), I'm A Soulman (ON-PACE, advantaged), London Rose (ON-PACE, advantaged), London's Rascal (ON-PACE, advantaged), Consignment (MIDFIELD), She's Capitana (MIDFIELD), Countersunk (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged), Merchant Trader (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged), Varazze (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged).
Punty read: Consignment is the staked pick and I'm backing him to win at $2.90, because he's midfield in a genuine pace race and he's the one with a win and a second from 4 on good. He ran 1st at Belmont Park 850m on 2026-10-12, which is the kind of run that makes you take notice. The danger is She's Capitana, midfield with fast sectionals and a 2nd at Northam 1000m. London Rose is the on-pace rival who can hold on if the tempo doesn't burn the front runners. Countersunk is the roughie who's been running fast over the last few starts.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Consignment (No.2) — $2.90 / $1.45
Bet $15.00 Win, return $43.50
Prob 27.1% | Place: 62.5% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why 1st at Belmont Park 850m last start and a midfield run in a genuine pace race. The form on good is strong, one win and one second from four, so he's the one to back.
2. She's Capitana (No.7) — $5.50 / $2.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.10 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. London Rose (No.10) — $4.80 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE and advantaged on the map, 4th at Ascot 1000m last start (2.1L). She'll be near the speed and that's the risk for the favourite.
Roughie: Countersunk (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a genuine pace race and his sectionals were the fastest on the card. He was 6th at Lark Hill 400m last start, so there's a fair bit of racing in him, and if the front runners fall apart, he could come with a rush.

Race 8 – Enright Memorial Hcp (C3)

Race type: Class 3, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Wolf Whistle Zel is the advantaged runner on the map. Mind Field, Guarantor, Seindeel and Rapid Rock are disadvantaged. Properata (ON-PACE), Wolf Whistle Zel (ON-PACE, advantaged), Forgotten Son (MIDFIELD), Swift Talker (MIDFIELD), Mind Field (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged), Snippy Sean (MIDFIELD), Arizona Sky (MIDFIELD), Guarantor (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged), Seindeel (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged), Rapid Rock (MIDFIELD, disadvantaged), The Republican (MIDFIELD).
Punty read: Properata is the staked pick, and I'm backing him to win at $2.40 because he's ON-PACE in a slow race where the early speed wins. His last start was a 2nd at Belmont Park 1000m (0.6L) and Chris Parnham is 15.6% at the track. The danger is Wolf Whistle Zel, who is on the speed with the advantage on the map, and he ran 3rd at Ascot 1200m last start. Mind Field and Swift Talker are midfield in a slow race, which is a tough spot for them.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Properata (No.8) — $2.50 / $1.32
Bet $10.50 Win, return $26.25
Prob 29.3% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE in a slow race is where you want to be, and he's been running in the finish with a 2nd at Belmont Park. Chris Parnham is strong at the track, so I'm backing him to win.
2. Wolf Whistle Zel (No.9) — $4.60 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Mind Field (No.2) — $5.50 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a slow race is a tough spot, but he ran 5th at Ascot 1400m last start (2.4L) and has a decent soft record. He's a horse to be near the finish, not a winner.
Roughie: Forgotten Son (No.1) — $14.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why Two wins from two starts at Northam on track form, and he's a midfield runner with a fresh-up profile. He's a long shot and the slow pace hurts, but his track form says he can win.

Race 9 – Procon Developments Australia Northam Cup

Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. Multinational is the leader on the card with the advantage. Multinational (LEADER, advantaged), Cool Memory (ON-PACE), Playhouse Patron (ON-PACE), Arcadia Park (ON-PACE), Royal Toronado (BACKMARKER, disadvantaged), Elite Missile (BACKMARKER), Dont Wait For Luck (BACKMARKER, disadvantaged), Aberdeen Flyer (MIDFIELD), Oly's Choice (MIDFIELD), Memory Parade (MIDFIELD).
Punty read: Aberdeen Flyer is the staked pick, and I'm backing him to win at $2.50 because he's midfield and has the form to run his race. He ran 2nd at Ascot 1400m last start (0.6L) and he's got three seconds from three on soft, so he's been close all the way. The danger is Oly's Choice, who won at Ascot 1600m last start and is 2kg lighter than last start. Royal Toronado is the backmarker who has to hope the leader comes back to him. Multinational is the roughie with heavy support late in the market, and he's the one who'll set the pace.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Aberdeen Flyer (No.8) — $2.50 / $1.35
Bet $15.00 Win, return $37.50
Prob 25.4% | Place: 59.0% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why Second at Ascot 1400m on 2026-10-10 and three seconds from three on soft, so he's been running hard all the way. The weights note has him 0 from 3 winning at 56-57kg, so that's the question, but he's the horse to beat.
2. Oly's Choice (No.5) — $6.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Royal Toronado (No.3) — $4.60 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a genuine pace race, so he needs the front runners to fall over. He's got a track record of 2 wins from 2 at Northam and ran 3rd at Belmont Park 1600m last start.
Roughie: Multinational (No.4) — $12.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.09x Steady since tip
Why Leads on the map with the advantage, and he's 3 wins from 17 starts on soft. The money has come late, from $15.00 to $11.00, so someone knows something, but I'd be cautious. If the pace is his, he could steal it.

Race 10 – Real Punters Play Here TABtouch Hcp (C3)

Race type: Class 3, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Run Pattie Run, Elegant Ruler, Return Of The Mach, Miss Wall Street, Enchanted Hour and So Immaculate are the disadvantaged runners on the map. Diamond Dancer (MIDFIELD), Nature's Reckoning (BACKMARKER), Cosmic Treat (ON-PACE), Elegant Ruler (MIDFIELD), Return Of The Mach (BACKMARKER), Run Pattie Run (BACKMARKER), Zouconi (MIDFIELD), Aurora Queen (MIDFIELD), Enchanted Hour (MIDFIELD), Hamadryad (ON-PACE), Dixie Doo (BACKMARKER), Miss Wall Street (MIDFIELD), Queen Selyse (MIDFIELD), So Immaculate (ON-PACE), Who Saz Yes (BACKMARKER).
Punty read: Dixie Doo is the staked pick, and I'm backing him to win at $3.50 because he's a backmarker in a moderate race where the speed should be OK, and he's 4kg lighter than last start. He was 1st at Belmont Park 1000m on 2026-09-29, which is the kind of run that makes him dangerous. The danger is Cosmic Treat, ON-PACE and 4kg up from last start, who's been going well at the trip. Diamond Dancer is the favourite of the midfield runners, with blinkers on again and a good record on soft. Nature's Reckoning gets the place bet as a backmarker who can run home.

Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)

1. Dixie Doo (No.12) — $3.50 / $1.62
Bet $7.50 Win, return $26.25
Prob 19.0% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why Four kilograms lighter than last start and a 1st at Belmont Park 1000m last time. Chris Parnham has a strong combo with the trainer, and he's the one I'm backing to win.
2. Cosmic Treat (No.4) — $7.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Nature's Reckoning (No.2) — $9.00 / $3.00
Bet $9.00 Place, return $27.00
Prob 11.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.06x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker with a 3rd at Northam 1000m last start (1L). I'm taking the place because the win is a long way off, but he's been running on and the place price is solid.
Roughie: Run Pattie Run (No.7) — $15.00 / $3.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.15x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker and disadvantaged on the map, so the path is the front runners falling over. Two wins from five first-up, and his tongue tie came off again, so there's a bit of a story there.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R3–R6)

Smart: 10,7,8,12 / 3,4,2,8 / 8,10,4,3 / 3,11,9,10 (256 combos x $0.3125 = $80.00) -- 31.2% flexi
Punty's take: R4 is the tightest leg with South Hoba's slow pace problem, and R6 is open with five runners. R3 is the wide chaos leg and the whole ticket is wide. The flexi covers the risk, but this is a big outlay for a ticket that needs a value winner in there somewhere.

QUADDIE (R7–R10)

Smart: 2,7,10 / 8,9,2 / 8,5,3 / 12,4,2,7 (108 combos x $0.3241 = $35.00) -- 32.4% flexi
Punty's take: R8 is the tight leg with just two runners, while R7, R9 and R10 are all open. Three of the four legs are races with real chaos, so this ticket needs a $5 to $10 winner in one of those races to pay well.

BIG 6 (R5–R10)

Smart: 8,10,4,3 / 3,11,9,10 / 2,7,10,4 / 8,9,2,1 / 8,5,3,4 / 12,4,2,7 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
Punty's take: This is entertainment only. Six legs with 4800 combos means the flexi is razor thin, and a short-priced winner in any leg kills the return. Play it for the fun of it, not for the money.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Blinkers swap in Race 1
Mayhem Rising has blinkers on for the first time, and Bang On The Money has them taken off for the first time. Both are at long prices, so the market is going to tell us which one the connections really believe in.
2 - Deep Lyric is coming back from a long break
He's 105 days off with a first-up record of 1 start, 0 wins and 1 second, so the price is short for a reason. The map has him sitting just off the lead in a moderate tempo, and that's why he's the bet.
3 - Forgotten Son has been winning at Northam
He's two from two on track at Northam, which is the sort of stat that makes a roughie tempting in a slow race. He's 98 days off, so keep your expectations in check, but he's a bit of a story.

THE RATBAG REPORT

Thanks for hanging around for the whole card, you lovely bunch of ratbags. Back the Deep Lyric win, keep the each-way on Maybe Maybe Maybe honest, and if the place bets come through, we'll call it a day in the Sickos sanctuary.