For all of Punty's tips for Warrnambool, head to https://punty.ai/tips/warrnambool-2026-11-06

Rightio Ticket Munchers, Warrnambool on a Good 4 with the rail out 9m and a westerly picking up to 25km/h, so the wind is going to be a nuisance all arvo. The showers are building and the rain risk jumps to 50%+ from 2pm, which means the back half of this card might turn into a sloppy mess. Grab a coffee, get the cheat sheet out and let's have a go.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Warrnambool, 1000m to 2350m card
Rail: Out 9m Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (nil rainfall last 24 hours, 16mm last 7 days)
Weather: Showers increasing, 17°C, humidity 57%, wind 25km/h WNW, gusts 38.9km/h, feels like 12.6°C. Rain risk 50%+ at 14:00, 17:00, 20:00 and 23:00.
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Race 1 is a slow-pace affair with the speed pretty thin on the ground. Races 2, 3, 5 and 8 are moderate. Race 4 has a genuine pace with one leader, Race 6 is the hot one with three runners wanting the lead, and Race 7 looks slow over 2350m.
Jockeys to follow:
Dean Yendall: 8 rides today, including Plucky Enuff, Racey Casey, What Once Was and Kiwiesque, and he's 15.4% at this track (1221/7913), which is the sort of strike rate that gets my attention.
Neil Farley: 7 rides today across Seethru, Dramatic Dream, Hay Joe and Vizie, so he's got plenty of chances to make the day interesting.
Brad Rawiller: 6 rides, but two of them are in my bets: Pee Plater in Race 4 and Kid Dynamite in Race 5.
Stables to respect:
C Maher (6 runners): Il Cielo, Fully Justified, Queen Mileyva, Azzacool, Brazenga and Catch The Moon. Six shots at a card that doesn't waste many runners, so their strike is worth watching.
Tom Dabernig (6 runners): Hellfire Jess, Dantooine, Corro, Danzsin, Big Vee and Charming Deel. Dantooine and Charming Deel are both among my top picks, so this stable is front and centre.
Shane Jackson (6 runners): Catch A Princess, Sophia's Legacy, Flaws And Sins, Genrichero, Haiiro and Initial Moment. Genrichero is the Race 7 pick and the stable has a strong trainer strike rate in the last 100 rides on the other runners.

Punty's take: This meeting is a tale of two halves. The first four races are mostly about who wants the front and who gets to sit behind them, and the speed is thin in Race 1 with nobody mapping to lead outright. Wizardess from barrier 3 and Vanara Princess from barrier 6 are the likeliest to find the front, and that's a slow-motion race waiting for a sit-and-sprint runner to steal it. Race 4 is the real speed race of the early card, with Mamzelle Raine the only one on the map to lead uncontested from barrier 8. Race 6 is the hot one, with Dantooine, Ballynacally and Thinking Sensation all wanting the front from barriers 1, 9 and 8. That fight should give the closers a chance to run down the backmarkers, and it's where the chaos lives. Race 7 over 2350m is a staying test that looks slow on the map, and that's where the stayers with a good sectional history might be able to pick up the pieces.

What it means for you: Be aggressive in Race 5 and Race 8, where the favourites have the shape in their favour and the market has been pushing them in. Protect your bankroll in Race 6, where the pace is hot and the field is open enough that any of the three leaders could blow up the ticket. The banker races are Races 4 and 8, while Race 1 and Race 3 are the chaos races where a roughie can hit. Keep the sequences tight on the banker legs and open the wider legs where the field is more open, and don't chase the fancy longshots without a clear path.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Charming Deel (Race 8, No.2) — $2.50
Why The most likely winner on the card, sitting handy from barrier 11 in a moderate-pace race where the shape helps him, with a 5th at Warrnambool 1400m last start and the market has come in from $2.95 to $2.50.
2 - Kid Dynamite (Race 5, No.2) — $1.94
Why Back from barrier 6 in a moderate-pace sprint with a Warrnambool 1000m 2nd last start, and the market has crunched him from $2.72 to $1.94 so the money is talking.
3 - Pee Plater (Race 4, No.2) — $2.82
Why Midfield from barrier 6 in a genuine-pace 1000m race, where the expected speed is up front with Mamzelle Raine, and he's a Sectionals L400 fastest with market support moving from $4.88 to $2.82.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × 13.68 = $136.80

Race 1 – Pearsons Nursery Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace on paper, and nobody on the map leads outright, though Wizardess from barrier 3 and Vanara Princess from barrier 6 are the likeliest to get to the front. The shape favours the back half, with Catch A Princess and No Need For Tears wide and needing cover, so the closers are the ones that benefit if the front-runners don't go hard. Symphony Sista is midfield from barrier 1 and the shape is against her, so she has to win on sheer quality.
Punty read: Symphony Sista is the bet, and it's the one I'm putting money on. She ran 2nd at Warrnambool 1300m last start, she's been bet from $8.13 to $4.80, and the trainer and jockey combo has a strong recent run. The danger is Plucky Enuff, who the market also loves at $3.90, but he's a backmarker in a slow-pace race and that shape is against him. Sophia's Legacy is the one to watch because she's been interfered with last start, and Vanara Princess is the roughie who can lead from the second-line position.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Symphony Sista (No.7) — $4.80 / $1.80
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), collects $42.90 if it wins ($31.20 win + $11.70 place), $11.70 if it only places
Prob 24.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.16x ▼6% since tip
Why She's been bet from $8.13 to $4.80, she was 2nd at Warrnambool 1300m last start, and the trainer's recent strike rate is hot.
2. Plucky Enuff (No.5) — $3.90 / $1.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.0% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sophia's Legacy (No.9) — $4.60 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.4% | Place: 49.2% | Value: 0.85x ▲5% since tip
Why She was 4th at Warrnambool 1400m last start in a race where she was interfered with, and she's been backed from $5.08 to $4.60.

Roughie: Vanara Princess (No.10) — $10.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 44.2% | Value: 1.32x ▲11% since tip
Why If the front-runners go too slowly she can take it up from the lead, and she has a strong combo record with Shane Jackson's stable? No, with L Smith's stable. Keep her in the mix for the exotic price.

Race 2 – Warrnambool Sheetmetal (Bm66)

Race type: Benchmark 66, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with no runner clearly suited by the expected speed. Seethru is handy from barrier 4 and the shape is against him, and Fully Justified from barrier 1 is the one who could go forward. Frosty Night's wide barrier 7 means he has to work to cross, and Racey Casey from barrier 6 needs cover to get into the race.
Punty read: Seethru is the bet and it's the one I'm backing. He's a Good 7:2-2-1 horse, he's been on the speed at Caulfield Heath 1000m, and the blinkers come off with winkers and a nasal strip going on for the first time. The danger is Racey Casey, who has come in from $4.81 to $3.20 and is the one the market is most keen on, while Till Queen is the roughie who has a sharp finish in her sectionals.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)

1. Seethru (No.2) — $2.90 / $1.55
Bet $11.50 Win, return $33.35
Prob 29.7% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why He's the horse with the speed and the gear change, with blinkers off and winkers and a nasal strip on for the first time, and his sectionals show a rank 2 at L400.
2. Racey Casey (No.5) — $3.20 / $1.57
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.8% | Place: 45.2% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Till Queen (No.3) — $4.00 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.08x Steady since tip
Why She's been backed from $6.76 to $4.00 and has the best L600 and L400 sectionals in the race, so if the speed collapses she can run down the field.

Roughie: Fully Justified (No.4) — $15.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.4% | Place: 9.8% | Value: 0.66x ▲13% since tip
Why She's a horse on the speed from barrier 1 and a 2nd at Warrnambool 1400m, and if the pace stays moderate and Seethru gets rattled she could sneak into the frame.

Race 3 – Warrnambool Football & Netball Club Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with two runners who are helped by the expected speed, Flaws And Sins from barrier 8 and Bringbackthebiff from barrier 9. Both are wide and have to work to cross, so the pace isn't going to be a big help for them. A Little Reward from barrier 3 and Victimised from barrier 6 are the likeliest to find the front, and Victimised is my pick, though the shape is against her.
Punty read: Victimised is the bet and she's the one I'm putting money on. She was a Colac 1000m winner last start in the extended form, she's been backed from $6.45 to $2.38 and the trainer and jockey have strong numbers together. Big Vee is the danger who has been backed too, at $2.54, and she has winkers on for the first time. Native Dance is the roughie and the market has been eased out to $11.00 but the place numbers are decent.

Top 3 + Roughie ($25.00 pool)

1. Victimised (No.9) — $2.38 / $1.10
Bet $12.50 Win, return $29.75
Prob 32.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.78x ▼4% since tip
Why She won at Colac 1000m last start, she's been bet from $6.45 to $2.38, and the jockey and trainer combo is at 16.3% (53/325) with an 18% last-100 rate.
2. Big Vee (No.2) — $2.54 / $1.12
Bet Tracked
Prob 32.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.12 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Dramatic Dream (No.3) — $5.40 / $1.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 56.3% | Value: 0.89x ▲4% since tip
Why She's midfield from barrier 7 and has the fastest sectionals in her only start, but the market has drifted from $3.75 to $5.40.

Roughie: Native Dance (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.35
Bet $12.50 Place, return $29.38
Prob 9.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.08x ▲10% since tip
Why Winkers go on for the first time, the trainer is running hot at 20% last-100 and the jockey is 12% last-100 on the card, and the place price is the safer way to go.

Race 4 – Northpoint Liquor Bottle-O Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Mamzelle Raine the only leader from barrier 8, and nothing handy to challenge her. The shape suits the forward runner and hurts the backmarkers, so Madame Petite from barrier 1 has to get out and work hard to get into the race. Pee Plater sits midfield from barrier 6, and the shape is neutral for him, so he's in the perfect position to pick off the tiring leader.
Punty read: Pee Plater is the bet and it's the one I'm putting the each-way money on. He's been backed from $4.88 to $2.82 and he's a Sectionals L400 fastest, with a gear change that sees the hind bandages off for the first time and a nose roll on. Madame Petite is the danger from barrier 1 and she's the second pick, but the shape is against her, so her win has to come from her combo with Fred W Kersley and L Smith. Danseur Noble is the one to watch, having been drifting from $4.00 to $10.00, and Miss Lil is the roughie who can run on from the back.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Pee Plater (No.2) — $2.82 / $1.14
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $29.70 if it wins ($21.15 win + $8.55 place), $8.55 if it only places
Prob 33.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.93x ▼7% since tip
Why He's midfield in a genuine-pace sprint which is the shape he wants, he's a Sectionals L400 fastest, and the market has come in from $4.88 to $2.82.
2. Madame Petite (No.8) — $2.22 / $1.09
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.64x ▲2% since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Danseur Noble (No.1) — $10.00 / $2.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.29x ▼10% since tip
Why He's a debutant with a brow band on for the first time and the trainer is running hot at 13% last-100, but the market has drifted from $4.00 to $10.00.

Roughie: Miss Lil (No.6) — $10.50 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.66x ▲16% since tip
Why She's midfield from barrier 7 and the jockey is running hot at 17% last-100, and if the leader fades in the straight she can run home late.

Race 5 – Midland Irrigation (Bm62)

Race type: Benchmark 62, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with two leaders in Francine from barrier 9 and What Once Was from barrier 7, both of them fighting for the front. Just Bolts and Prince Sonic are the ones the shape helps, sitting handy behind the pair. Kid Dynamite settles back from barrier 6, and the shape is neutral for him, so he can get a run at the leaders in the straight.
Punty read: Kid Dynamite is the bet and it's the one I'm putting money on. He's a backmarker in a sprint with the fastest L600 and L400 sectionals in the race, and the market has crunched him from $2.72 to $1.94. Hellfire Jess is the danger who has been backed to $7.40 from $5.10 but the market has drifted in the last hour, and Just Bolts is the one to watch from the on-speed position with the fastest sectional time.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Kid Dynamite (No.2) — $1.95 / $1.09
Bet $10.50 Win, return $20.48
Prob 37.8% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.74x ▼5% since tip
Why He has the fastest L600 and L400 sectionals in the race, he's been backed from $2.72 to $1.94, and the jockey and trainer combo has been solid.
2. Hellfire Jess (No.7) — $7.40 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.37x ▲8% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Just Bolts (No.1) — $6.80 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.97x ▲9% since tip
Why She's on the speed from barrier 1 and has the fastest sectional time in the race, but she was held up at Caulfield Heath 1000m last start.

Roughie: Sioux Warrior (No.3) — $13.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.93x ▲8% since tip
Why He's midfield from barrier 2 and the jockey is running hot at 9% last-100, and if the two leaders burn each other out he can pick up the pieces.

Race 6 – Lifetime Trophies (Bm66)

Race type: Benchmark 66, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot pace with three runners wanting the lead. Dantooine from barrier 1 is the one I like to lead, and the shape helps him, with Ballynacally from barrier 9 and Thinking Sensation from barrier 8 both having to work to cross. Brazenga is the one on the speed who gets a sit if the leaders burn each other out, and Corro is on the speed from barrier 5 and the shape is against him.
Punty read: Dantooine is the bet and it's the one I'm backing. He's a leader from barrier 1 in a hot-pace race where the shape is in his favour, he's had blinkers off again, and his combo with Tom Dabernig's stable is strong. The danger is Corro, who has had blinkers off for the first time and is well backed at $7.40, while Azzacool is the one to watch from the midfield if the pace collapses. Dobkins is the roughie with a cross-over nose band on for the first time.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Dantooine (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.60
Bet $10.50 Win, return $48.30
Prob 24.1% | Place: 59.7% | Value: 1.11x ▼3% since tip
Why He's a leader from barrier 1 in a hot-pace sprint, blinkers are off again, and he's been a 1st at Colac 1000m last start.
2. Corro (No.5) — $7.40 / $2.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 34.6% | Value: 1.08x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.30 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Azzacool (No.7) — $6.20 / $2.05
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why He's midfield from barrier 7 in a hot-pace sprint with the fastest L600, L400 and time sectionals in the race, and the market has drifted from $4.61 to $6.20.

Roughie: Dobkins (No.9) — $11.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why He's midfield from barrier 4 and the cross-over nose band is on for the first time, and if the three leaders burn out in the straight he's the one who can run through.

Race 7 – Lady Bay Resort (Bm62)

Race type: Benchmark 62, 2350m
Map & tempo: Slow pace over a staying trip with Haiiro from barrier 9 and Initial Moment from barrier 12 the likeliest to find the front. Genrichero is midfield from barrier 13, and the shape helps him, so he has the chance to run home late. First Innings and No Rumours from the back are also helped by the expected pace, and they're the ones who have to be considered in the closing sequence.
Punty read: Genrichero is the bet and it's the one I'm backing. He's a stayer with a Good 22:3-2-5 record, the fastest time sectional in the race, and the market has come in from $5.03 to $3.50. No Rumours is the danger from barrier 15, with a gear change where the stallion chain comes off for the first time, and Jenny The Beaver is the one to watch, backed from $7.87 to $5.70. Callawadda is the roughie with the L600 and L400 sectionals fastest.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Genrichero (No.7) — $3.50 / $1.60
Bet $10.50 Win, return $36.75
Prob 23.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.82x ▼3% since tip
Why He's a staying stayer with the fastest time sectional, and he's been backed from $5.03 to $3.50 with the jockey's combo at 23.1% (3/13).
2. No Rumours (No.4) — $8.20 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.12x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Jenny The Beaver (No.3) — $5.70 / $2.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why She's been backed from $7.87 to $5.70 and the jockey is running at 14.7% at this track, a good sign for a stayer.

Roughie: Callawadda (No.2) — $11.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.5% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why She has the fastest L600 and L400 sectionals in the race and a 3rd at Echuca 2100m last start, so if the front-runners go too slowly she can run them down.

Race 8 – Nevcon Structural Steel (Bm62)

Race type: Benchmark 62, 1700m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with no clear leader on the map, though Charming Deel from barrier 11 and Catch The Moon from barrier 5 are the likeliest to find the front. Charming Deel is on the speed and the shape helps him, with Reel Hot also on the speed from barrier 9. Super Snitch is the closer from barrier 10 and needs the speed to be quick enough to run her down.
Punty read: Charming Deel is the bet and it's the one I'm backing. He's on the speed in a race where the shape helps him, he's been backed from $2.95 to $2.50, and he has the fastest time sectional in the race. The danger is Super Snitch, who has come in from $31.25 to $8.00, and Vizie is the one to watch from midfield, backed from $33.33 to $14.00 with a good place record.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Charming Deel (No.2) — $2.50 / $1.15
Bet $10.50 Win, return $26.25
Prob 39.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.98x ▼2% since tip
Why He's handy from barrier 11 in a moderate-pace race where the shape helps him, the winkers are on again, and he's been backed from $2.95 to $2.50.
2. Super Snitch (No.1) — $8.50 / $2.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 45.6% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.45 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Vizie (No.8) — $14.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 1.16x ▲8% since tip
Why He's midfield from barrier 3 and has been backed from $33.33 to $14.00 with a strong L400 fastest sectional.

Roughie: Limosa (No.7) — $10.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.94x ▲5% since tip
Why He's midfield from barrier 8 and the shape suits him well enough, and if the favourite is caught wide he's the one to run home late.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R1–R4)

Smart: 5,9,7,10 / 3,5,2 / 9,2,3,8 / 8,2,1 (144 combos x $0.3472 = $50.00) -- 34.7% flexi
Punty's take: Race 1 is the chaos leg with five runners, while Races 2, 3 and 4 are tighter. The flexi is 37%, so it's a solid play with a real shot at paying.

QUADDIE (R5–R8)

Smart: 2,1,7,9 / 1,7,5 / 7,3,4,2 / 2,1 (96 combos x $0.3646 = $35.00) -- 36.5% flexi
Punty's take: Race 5 and Race 8 are the banker legs, while Race 6 and Race 7 give you the room. The flexi is 41.7%, a good call on a card that will produce a winner at a decent price somewhere.

BIG 6 (R3–R8)

Smart: 9,2,3,8 / 8,2,1,6 / 2,1,7,9 / 1,7,5 / 7,3,4,2 / 2,1,3,7,8 (3840 combos x $0.001302 = $5.00) -- 0.13% flexi
Punty's take: This is an entertainment-only ticket, flagged honestly. Six legs with 3840 combos means the flexi is tiny, so play it for the fun and don't expect it to pay.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Blinkers come off Dantooine
Blinkers are OFF (again) for Dantooine in Race 6, and the same race sees blinkers off for the first time on Corro. Watch the market on the leaders.

2 - Victimised's price has been slashed
Victimised has gone from $6.45 to $2.38 in Race 3, and the market has been HEAVY on her all morning. Keep an eye on it if you want to see where the smart money is.

3 - Shane Jackson has six runners and a point to prove
Shane Jackson's six runners include Catch A Princess and Sophia's Legacy in Race 1, Genrichero, Haiiro and Initial Moment in Race 7, and Flaws And Sins in Race 3. Half the card has his name on it, so he's the one to watch for a surprise.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

That's the cheat sheet, Ticket Munchers. Read the maps, respect the shape and don't be the drongo who bets on the roughie because the name sounds good. Enjoy the day, and let's see if Charming Deel can get us home before the rain arrives.