Saturday, 18 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, Axopar has the early advantage but They'reallsisters looks to settle and pounce
Punty read: This race is the "who's got the cleaner trip" job. They'reallsisters resumes with blinkers and she's got the right vibe for a Soft 7, the kind where you don't need to lead, you just need to be there when the track starts taking prisoners. Axopar is the pace marker on paper, but the form says They'reallsisters has the better overall feel for the finish, and that drifting money around the field tells me there's a couple of wobblers. So we keep it simple, and we let the race shape do the heavy lifting.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. They'reallsisters (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.75 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$76.50
Prob 32.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.66x
Why Soft ground fit, blinkers in, and she's built to get the right run in a slow tempo.
2. Axopar (No.12) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.1% | Place: 63.5% | Value: 1.43x
Why The early tempo leans against some types, Axopar's there to benefit, but we keep staking controlled.
3. Lifetime Dream (No.9) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.55x
Why She might get a slice if things fall apart, but the place numbers are too thin to trust.
Roughie: The Persian God (No.11) — $9.50 / $3.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 29.4% | Value: 0.83x
Race type: Handicap, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Wicked Venom and Sniper's Son have the speed, Mai Aloha looks like the class of the sprint
Punty read: This is the "1000m, everything changes in 4 seconds" race. Mai Aloha has the kind of profile you want on Soft 7, keeps finding at speed, and the market price still feels playable. Wicked Venom is the classic reset runner, fresh legs can cause trouble late. Desert Dancing is your danger if the tempo is kinder than expected, but for me the smart play is to back the ones with the clearest path, and use place where it's available.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Mai Aloha (No.8) — $3.10 / $1.52 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 30.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.19x
Why The pace helps, Soft 7 doesn't scare her, and she's got the engine to keep going through the line.
2. Wicked Venom (No.3) — $6.00 / $2.15 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 44.2% | Value: 1.10x
Why Has the right fresh-up setup, but we only bite if the place price is giving us a fair crack.
3. Desert Dancing (No.5) — $7.00 / $2.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 10.4% | Place: 57.1% | Value: 0.91x
Why If she gets clear running, she can grind past tired ones who can't handle the footing.
Roughie: Sesh (No.10) — $9.00 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.04x
Race type: Open, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, backmarkers can get home late with the right passage
Punty read: 2200m on a Soft 7 is basically a chess game where the pieces are mud. Westbound is the standout because he's the kind of backmarker who doesn't panic when the tempo stays slow, he just keeps collecting ground. Ladies Pro looks deadly early, but on this type of track, being too keen can be expensive. Special Counsel is the one with the "from nowhere" second-up threat, and Pony Up might sneak into the bracket if the leaders tire early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Westbound (No.1) — $2.35 / $1.20 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 39.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why Slow map means he can sit, then unleash late when everyone else starts sticking.
2. Ladies Pro (No.3) — $1.62 / $1.08 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 39.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.79x
Why She can win, but value is missing and we're not paying for certainty in a 2 place only market.
3. Special Counsel (No.2) — $10.00 / $3.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.04x
Why He's live if the race opens up late, but place options aren't generous enough to splash.
Roughie: Pony Up (No.4) — $20.00 / $4.20 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.2% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.81x
Race type: Handicap, 1650m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Our Mate Archie and Odinaka get tempo help, but Auto Cruise can stalk or strike
Punty read: This is the race where the favourite should get every chance and still look like she's doing it easily. Auto Cruise is the on-pace presence and her best chance is when the field doesn't sprint itself to pieces before the turn. Our Mate Archie is the obvious danger if he gets the right run tracking in, and Snippy Which is the type who can get into the minors by running a straight race in the soft.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.50 pool)
1. Auto Cruise (No.8) — $2.00 / $1.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$9.75
Prob 33.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.83x
Why She has the race shape and the class to keep control of the middle part of the run.
2. Our Mate Archie (No.10) — $5.00 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 22.2% | Place: 59.9% | Value: 1.38x
Why Market drift in the lane says value, and on his day he's hard to get past after the turn.
3. Snippy Which (No.1) — $8.50 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.02x
Why She can run on, but I want a place chance that's stronger than this.
Roughie: Battle Commander (No.3) — $9.50 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.36x
Race type: Handicap, 1650m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, backmarkers are live if they get through late, Two Time Charlie looks the right kind of menace
Punty read: You want a horse who can sit in the mud and still have a gear late. Two Time Charlie is that type. He's backed into the right spot, and his profile suits this kind of track where you don't want to be burning up early. Shimonoseki is the rough edge, Linchpin is the one with the place value and the chance to run a cheeky race. Western Miss is the short price, but if you're grabbing value, you do it with the ones who have upside. This is where I like the plan, not the romance.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Two Time Charlie (No.3) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 28.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.95x
Why Slow tempo suits backmarkers who can keep their rhythm, and he's got the late pop.
2. Western Miss (No.14) — $1.80 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.57x
Why Price is tight, so while she's dangerous, it's not value enough to chase.
3. Shimonoseki (No.8) — $10.00 / $2.90 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$19.95
Prob 12.3% | Place: 58.9% | Value: 1.54x
Why This is her kind of setup, and with Soft 7 she can keep churning late.
Roughie: Linchpin (No.4) — $10.00 / $2.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 58.9% | Value: 1.52x
Race type: Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, chaos handicap where the on-pace ones can still get done if the track is sticky
Punty read: This one's a proper "pick your poison and don't blink" race. Too Soon has the on-pace profile and the kind of track fitness that can win in these boggy scenarios. Supernatural is the value play who can steam through with cover. Eliteone looks like he belongs in the finish if the pace holds together. The trick on Soft 7 is not getting stuck three wide with no cover, because the ground is stealing your metres.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Too Soon (No.5) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.50 Each Way ($7.75W + $7.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.50
Prob 17.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.08x
Why He gets the right pace positioning and keeps battling when the track turns mean.
2. Supernatural (No.4) — $8.50 / $2.90 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 44.5% | Value: 1.46x
Why He's got the value case, but the each-way cover is already done on Too Soon.
3. Eliteone (No.7) — $8.50 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 11.1% | Place: 58.7% | Value: 1.19x
Why He's the type to get through the gaps late, especially when the leaders get bogged.
Roughie: All Grunt (No.3) — $9.50 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.89x
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Want A Winner and Girls Day Out are the likely front end, and the wet adds chaos
Punty read: 1200m on Soft 7 is chaos with a bow on top, but Want A Winner looks like the right speed engine and the market price is still doing a decent job. Girls Day Out has the cruising confidence if she gets an easy run and doesn't get forced into a sprint early. Atlantic Spirit can pop into the finish with the right cover, and The Calabrese is the roughie who can do his best work when everyone starts running on guts.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Want A Winner (No.9) — $2.35 / $1.32 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 32.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why Sharp early speed, and he should get a clean crack at them around the turn.
2. Girls Day Out (No.12) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.39x
Why She's value on the day, but the place price needs to be right to justify the bet.
3. Atlantic Spirit (No.10) — $7.50 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 10.9% | Place: 44.2% | Value: 1.02x
Why If the leaders tire just a touch, she's there to pick up the slack.
Roughie: The Calabrese (No.8) — $13.00 / $3.70 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.18x
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with in-fight pressure and runners who can win from in behind
Punty read: This is a race where the inside speed doesn't need to win, it just needs to keep everyone honest. In Confidence has the best mix of price and profile, and Bookends is the value type if the front end gets rattled. Yes I Know is in the market for a reason, and Great Emotion can give you a sneaky place if it turns into a sprint against the wet.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.50 pool)
1. In Confidence (No.13) — $3.90 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P) — ✓ Won, net +$24.44
Prob 19.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why She maps to keep running, and Soft 7 can reward the horse who stays balanced.
2. Bookends (No.16) — $6.50 / $2.40 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 63.4% | Value: 1.29x
Why Value is there, but with the each-way cover already locked in, we don't double insure.
3. Yes I Know (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.64x
Why Can run, but the place picture isn't strong enough to back at this price.
Roughie: Great Emotion (No.8) — $9.50 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 46.4% | Value: 1.28x
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,12,9,11 / 8,5,3,7,10 / 1,3,2 / 8,10,1,3 (240 combos x $0.15 = $35.94) -- 15% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3,14,8,4 / 5,7,4,3 / 9,12,10,8 / 13,16,8,5 (256 combos x $0.25 = $64.00) -- 25% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1 / 8 / 3 / 5 / 9 / 13 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - They'reallsisters (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $4.00
2 - Westbound (Race 3, No.1)✗ — $2.35
3 - Auto Cruise (Race 4, No.8)✓ Won — $2.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Belmont Park on a Soft 7 with the rail jammed out. It's the kind of day where the sloppy lanes teach you humility and the sharp ones print money, assuming your maths and your ego survive the first bend. We've got a few proper anchors on the card, plus the usual suspects who'll try to steal your wallet with a late swoop. Let's get amongst it.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 7, 1200-2200m card
Rail: +10m Entire
Official going: Soft 7 (expected to play Speed vs Stamina, wet-friendly)
Weather: Possible shower, 18C, wet risk high, and those gusts can turn a "nice run" into "what the hell was that?"
Early lane guess: Leaders inside, but watch for outside fence hugger when it firms up on the edges
Tempo profile: Mixed tempo, with plenty of races that look slow early and then get ugly late
Jockeys to follow:
William Pike: consistently sharp on pace when the track turns a little heavy
Clint Johnston-Porter: knows how to place his horses for the split, especially in tight race shapes
Ms Holly Watson: keeps them finding the line, even when the run isn't straightforward
Stables to respect:
Michael Grantham (9 runners): they show up when conditions suit and they've got runners in the right spots
D L Morton (4 runners): steady prep work, and first-up and returning horses are often live
G & A Williams (4 runners): their group don't mind soft ground, and they back themselves through the market
Punty's take:
Belmont on Soft 7 is basically a "sandpaper for pace" track. Early speed still matters, but if you're flat-footed at the wrong time you get rolled like you left your phone on 2 percent. The rail is out, so the inside is doing some work, but with rain hovering, outside runs can turn into the saving grace when the leaders feel the kickback.
The story of the day is that the favourites aren't just favourites on paper. We've got clean map fits and market posture that says "these guys are meant to be there." Race 1 and Race 3 are the class act scenarios, Race 4 looks like it sets up perfectly for its main on-pace style, and Race 6 is a proper chaos handicap, where you survive by picking the right kind of danger.
2.5) *What it means for you:
You want aggression where the race shape is screaming and protection where it's a bog. That means, push the spine in the races that have a clear early story, then use place or each-way thinking when the value is there but the win is a tightrope.
Translation: build around the Big 3 and don't overthink the simple lanes. Then, when we hit the chaos races, back your read with enough protection to cover the "one run got shuffled" scenarios. If the showers land mid-meeting, the finish will get more savage, so your place legs are where your patience pays you back.