Saturday, 18 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, heavy track stretch, expect grinders and late lunges.
Punty read: This race is basically "who gets the smoothest run in the mud." Misissipi Gambler and No More Pennies both have midfield back-up options, and the excuses suggest they have been stuck behind traffic or got no run when they needed it. Flor De Cana is an outlier who's on pace, but with a maiden like this, the smart money is on those who can hold their ground and then keep rolling when others start to knuckle down.
Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)
1. Misissipi Gambler (No.5) — $2.35 / $1.17 🏆 4TH
Bet $8.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 27.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.95x
Why The form line is solid for a maiden and the heavy track excuses are legit. Draws into a trip where he can take a breath, then go again late.
2. No More Pennies (No.2) — $4.60 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet $3.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.45
Prob 13.6% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.86x
Why The value is screaming, and those recent "held up and raced wide" runs are the kind you forgive on Heavy 10. Expect him to be closer to the action this time.
3. Hi Yo Fox Rox (No.1) — $4.40 / $1.62 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.65x
Why Has the pedigree of being able to run, but the place picture is shaky if the race goes full train-and-stack early.
Roughie: Kay's Ruebe (No.8) — $9.50 / $2.60 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.68x
Why She's got a path if the pace collapses, but she's more likely to get worked over mid-race on a wet track.
Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, short sprint, front end gets a head start in heavy conditions.
Punty read: Bokushi looks like the map answer. On 1100m you can't afford to be doing too much, and on Heavy 10, "effort" turns into "distance lost." Blondmoon profiles as the perfect stalker type, and Lacey Luck is the sort that can hang on for a place if the race bunches up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.00 pool)
1. Bokushi (No.1) — $2.00 / $1.08 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$12.00
Prob 32.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.94x
Why Should take control early and keep running through the slog. In a short race, that forward pressure is everything.
2. Blondmoon (No.7) — $4.00 / $1.45 🏆 3RD
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.60
Prob 21.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.16x
Why Value on place, plus she's the exact kind that benefits when the leaders soften and the middle of the field starts falling into a pocket.
3. Lacey Luck (No.6) — $5.50 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 18.5% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why Can sit on the pace just off the speed, and on Heavy 10 that's how you avoid being "parked in the mud" too far back.
Roughie: Redneck Romeo (No.3) — $17.00 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.8% | Place: 12.3% | Value: 0.94x
Why Only really wins if the race gets weird and the leaders implode early enough for him to swoop.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, speed holds until it doesn't.
Punty read: This is a race where the leaders get tested properly. Cremant is up in the front, and Bella Timing looks like she can land close enough without getting bullied. Ribkraka is the handy type for a place and the rain card makes it easier for those on-pacing paths to keep finding.
Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)
1. Cremant (No.4) — $4.60 / $1.70 🏆 2ND
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P) — Cashed, net +$0.00
Prob 17.9% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.06x
Why Heavy-form friendly and has the class edge, if he keeps the ball rolling in front he's hard to run down.
2. Bella Timing (No.3) — $6.00 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 35.8% | Value: 1.28x
Why The value is there but the model is protecting the ticket from spreading too wide in an already tight EW setup.
3. Ribkraka (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 0.92x
Why Could improve if the pace goes off, but he's not the safest "place" play in this particular map.
Roughie: Tulsa King (No.6) — $16.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.5% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.49x
Why Needs speed to collapse hard, otherwise he's just another mud-runner chasing dreams.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, position matters, especially on the rail.
Punty read: Drommy looks like the one who can do the job without getting trapped. Go Trigger can go on with it too, but in heavy conditions 1400m is where leaders either get away or get swallowed. Performer has the right profile for a place, and Came True's market position says she's capable of running, but I don't love her as the main line on this surface.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Drommy (No.1) — $2.25 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 31.2% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.10x
Why Strong heavy track type with an inside-ish advantage through the race flow, and he's built to keep extending late.
2. Came True (No.3) — $6.50 / $2.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why She can place, but at that place dividend the model wants no part in covering that gap.
3. Performer (No.5) — $4.20 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.60
Prob 19.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.59x
Why Solid for place with the right "keep moving" profile in heavy going. If Drommy leads, he's the one that rounds the field best.
Roughie: Meisai (No.8) — $10.00 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.5% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.28x
Why Needs a messy race and a late sprint window. Otherwise he's too far back too often on Heavy 10.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace settles then the field stretches in the heavy.
Punty read: This is the chaos handicap in the middle of the card, and it's exactly the kind of race where "all of them look like they can run fourth." Illustrious has the most reliable profile for a win shot value-wise. Can Do is the kind that keeps improving when the race isn't sprinting. Don's Legacy is a place play that's got every reason to keep grinding, and Palmarow is the roughie because you want one big coin toss in your pocket.
Top 3 + Roughie ($30.00 pool)
1. Illustrious (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$22.50
Prob 13.0% | Place: 40.8% | Value: 1.37x
Why Value is there, but the model is guarding the roughie spot and not crowding the ticket with the obvious rank 1 win profile.
2. Don's Legacy (No.5) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.80x
Why He's a grinder, but the place odds are outside the keeper band so the smart move is to protect the place value.
3. Can Do (No.6) — $9.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 7.7% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 0.91x
Why Place value with a better heavy-going profile than the market expects. He should get cover and keep going through the line.
Roughie: Palmarow (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.18x
Why Needs the inside lane to open up late and the heavies to start dropping off in front.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, mid-distance heavy grind.
Punty read: Jungle Love is the star of the show. She's on-pacing enough to take advantage of the track, and once they're all working in the mud she should be one of the first to say "cheers, I'll take it from here." Zanzibar can lead too, but the value is in Jungle Love staying in the action and not getting involved in a death match. Wire Rope is a sneaky place chance if the leaders get swallowed early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Jungle Love (No.6) — $3.90 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$43.50
Prob 19.9% | Place: 65.5% | Value: 1.00x
Why Best bet of the day for the "right horse, right phase" story, forward on heavy and keeps running.
2. Zanzibar (No.5) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.13x
Why Not a bad runner, just the place dividend is slightly outside the model's comfort range.
3. Afterglo (No.10) — $3.70 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.25
Prob 27.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.30x
Why Gets a good spot and can hit the line without needing a perfect scenario. If Jungle Love pulls the race along, she's the one likely to follow.
Roughie: Principled (No.2) — $10.00 / $3.20 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 37.9% | Value: 1.20x
Why Can run in the heavy if he gets room late, but he's not the easiest to time.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, and if the leaders go hard, the good finishers get paid.
Punty read: This is the sort of race where the front runner sets the pattern and the rest try to pick the exact moment to attack. Bonnard is the likely leader, but the market has him short enough that you need him to be good for longer than usual. Mr Mojo Risin' has the value profile because he can sit closer and pounce when the genuine pace starts to do the damage. Thooza is your roughie because she's the type to keep improving late and might sneak into the top three if the race compresses.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.00 pool)
1. Bonnard (No.9) — $3.00 / $1.50 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.50 Each Way ($6.75W + $6.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.50
Prob 23.2% | Place: 68.8% | Value: 0.92x
Why He's the speed story, and on Heavy 10 a leader who doesn't get cooked early is hard to hold out of the finish.
2. Mr Mojo Risin' (No.3) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.7% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.49x
Why The model likes him, but it's choosing not to over-layer the ticket in the same probability zone.
3. Thooza (No.12) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 7.1% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 0.91x
Why Place value and the genuine pace helps those who can keep grinding without falling off the bridle.
Roughie: Joshua Brown (No.5) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 0.86x
Why Needs a very specific trip and running room, otherwise he's hunting late.
Race type: Open, 1800m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, longer heavy trip, late-runner window.
Punty read: This is the proper staying handicap, and it's shaped like a race where the winner is the one who can stay balanced late without losing momentum in the heavy. Astoria Brooke is the main danger with the market pin, Tobias looks like a place-in-the-loop horse, and Ayteem is the classic "leader until the leaders stop" type. If Hidalgo is drifting, it tells you the market's done the maths and you should be cautious about the far outside becoming a fairytale.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.00 pool)
1. Astoria Brooke (No.5) — $2.90 / $1.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $6.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.00
Prob 31.1% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.19x
Why Class profile with the best chance to hold station through the heavy 1800 grind, and the market price still makes her hard to ignore.
2. Tobias (No.4) — $6.00 / $2.20 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.20x
Why A decent runner, but the exact place odds are just off the model's sweet spot.
3. Ayteem (No.10) — $5.50 / $2.10 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 1.00x
Why He's got speed, but the place case is too thin on a long heavy handicap.
Roughie: Rosetown Princess (No.6) — $9.00 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 12.2% | Value: 0.79x
Why Only really wins if the race falls apart late and she's still got enough petrol left in the slop.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 5,2,1,8 / 1,7,6 / 4,1,3 / 1,5,3,2,8 (180 combos x $0.19 = $35.00) -- 19% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 3,10,5 / 10,6,5,2 / 3,9,12,5 / 5,4,10,2,6 (240 combos x $0.25 = $60.00) -- 25% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 4 / 1 / 3 / 6 / 9 / 5 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Bokushi (Race 2, No.1)✓ Won — $2.00
2 - Drommy (Race 4, No.1) — $2.25
3 - Jungle Love (Race 6, No.6)✓ Won — $3.90
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Heavy 10 is on the menu, rail is true, and the track's gonna feel like it's got treacle in the backbone. We've got 8 races, a stack of scratchings, and plenty of chances for horses to "do the wrong thing" and still run on late, like a mate who misses the train and turns up anyway.
Punty's got one big thing in his head today, the tempo is slow-ish to genuine across most trips, and heavy tracks turn every race into a survival test. So the winners are the ones who either get the right position early without burning up, or sit just off it and pounce when the field starts grinding like a car park at 5pm. Race 1 is chaos-maiden stuff where one smooth run can jag you the cash, Race 6 looks built for a "touch of class plus the right map" job, and Race 7 is Cup Day vibes in a smaller bowl, where the smart riders can steal the race off the front runner.
This is how I'm seeing the day, early races are about positioning and avoiding getting stitched out in the mud, later races are where the tempo and track fitness show. If you're backing win, keep it tight. If you're backing place, you can afford to be a bit more relaxed because Heavy 10 rewards those who are still finding ground in the last 150m. Now let's get stuck into it.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Heavy 10, 1200-1800m card
Rail: True
Official going: Heavy 10 (expected to play Speed vs Stamina grind)
Weather: Cloudy (watch for slippery footing, horses starting to drift wider)
Early lane guess: Sit-On pace for races 2 and 6, then bully the inside where it saves ground.
Tempo profile: Mixed tempo, but heavy track makes everything feel closer at the line once the legs tire.
Jockeys to follow:
Craig Grylls: gets things organised early and keeps the horse in the race when the track is chewing them up
Amber Riddell: strong on positioning when the race gets tactical and the field bunches in heavy going
Elen Nicholas: loves a forward role, and on a wet-ish surface that's half the battle
Stables to respect:
Robbie Patterson (3 runners): knows how to get maidens and battlers ready when the surface is ugly
S A Sharrock (2 runners): heavy-track rhythm, gets them moving in the right phase of the race
Debbie Sweeney (2 runners): crafty with spacing and intent, especially when the map says "go forward"
Punty's take: Heavy 10 at New Plymouth with the rail true is the type of card where you can lose money by betting "nice" and winning by betting "smart rough." The speed is there, but it's not fireworks speed. More like slow-motion pressure. Horses that look like they're travelling, then hit a gear turning for home, those are the ones that handle the mud without panicking.
Race 2 is the classic 1100m where the front end decides it's not your turn today. I'm expecting Bokushi to hold the page, and Blondmoon to land in the right spot to take the air when the leaders slog. Race 3 is a benchmark 75, so it's not a free-for-all, and Cremant looks like the one they all have to chase. Race 4 has a heap of maidens but the track says "prove it with a clean trip," that's why Drommy is the one I want in the middle.
Later, Race 6 is where the day turns from "hope" to "execution." Jungle Love is the kind of runner who benefits when the field does the heavy-work for you, and once she hits the right part of the track, she'll keep going. Race 7 is open class, but the best guide is the rhythm, Mr Mojo Risin' wants a genuine tempo and Thooza looks like she'll pick up values if the race isn't sprinting. And Race 8 is a proper 1800m handicap where the tote of the race is written by who can hold position without getting swallowed.
What it means for you: Here's your punting game plan, don't chase every runner, especially on Heavy 10. In the early races, back the ones that can either be near the speed or follow it without getting yanked wide. That's the difference between "run on" and "two lengths back forever."
Win bet? I'm only interested where the map is clean and the horse looks like it can keep finding. Place bets are your safety net, the track makes everyone run a slightly worse race than they think they will, and that's why your place chances are better than your win fantasies. Save the exotics for the races you've got a real spine in, otherwise you're basically buying lottery tickets with extra steps.