Saturday, 18 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, on-pace speed supported by the pace-advantaged script.
Punty read: This one's shaping like a "who can stick around the longest" 1200m. Tengun Tommy is the type that soaks up trouble and then keeps running, he's got that second-up edge and the Doomben Soft 5 footing usually suits runners who don't need everything perfect. Fearless Win looks like the tough customer that rises in distance and keeps grinding, while My Girl Marley is the one to respect for a wet-track, place-propensity kind of run. High Prophet is your roughie because when the market shouts it back, sometimes the horse quietly sneaks into the finish like it's late for a train.
Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)
1. Tengun Tommy (No.1) — $1.86 / $1.07 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$6.02
Prob 37.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.83x
Why Class fit and second-up readiness, plus he has the running style to survive Soft 5 sting.
2. Fearless Win (No.2) — $8.45 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.6% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.79x
Why Great place value and he should get every chance from the pace setup, but we're keeping the stake tight.
3. My Girl Marley (No.11) — $10.50 / $2.60 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.00
Prob 15.3% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.93x
Why Blinkers first time and she's drawn to get a run, Soft 5 often rewards those who can sit closer.
Roughie: High Prophet (No.3) — $10.50 / $2.55 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.37x
Why Resuming, market says "give it a crack", and if the pace sets up slightly, he can sneak into the placings.
Race type: Benchmark 70, 1350m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Mirra Impact positioned for a serious first-up plan.
Punty read: Genuine tempo means on-pace horses get to do their best work instead of being used up. Moonan Quartz is the one that looks like he's always going to be in the finish, and Contilda's Love is the money-for-place type because she's got the right kind of trip geometry for this distance on Soft 5. Detrimental is there as the grinder that might do a job if the race doesn't collapse, but the model's only letting him run as a watch-and-hope. Mirra Impact can pop into the frame if the leaders don't go too hard, but for today he's more of a "maybe, don't force it" story.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. Moonan Quartz (No.6) — $2.72 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$13.76
Prob 28.9% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why He's a proper on-pace weapon and Soft 5 suits when you can stay balanced.
2. Contilda's Love (No.7) — $5.90 / $1.90 🏆 6TH
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 18.1% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.30x
Why That's the place value angle and she should enjoy the tempo, she's built for a hit-and-stick finish.
3. Detrimental (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.70 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.83x
Why He's live on effort, but the place numbers say he's more "maybe third" than "slam it".
Roughie: Mirra Impact (No.1) — $9.15 / $2.55 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 26.7% | Value: 0.81x
Why If you're chasing, it's because he's fitter, but this is a top-3 protection job.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Toro Chase and Rhetoric giving the speed a push.
Punty read: This is your little 1200m speed playground, where on-pace can win and off-pace needs a lot to go right. Moshulu Spirit maps perfectly, he's on the speed and he's not the sort to get swallowed up in Soft 5. Fire Bomber is next best, he's got the right run pattern to hang around and pick up again late. Point Vega can win a race when it all clicks, but he's the place option today because he's been a bit tardy in worst ground. Venom Rush is the roughie because he's the kind of runner that might only need one gap to materialise when the field spreads out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($21.50 pool)
1. Moshulu Spirit (No.2) — $3.40 / $1.57 🏆 4TH
Bet $6.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 32.0% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.37x
Why On pace, improving profile, and he can measure up to this grade without needing luck.
2. Fire Bomber (No.5) — $4.35 / $1.80 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$8.00
Prob 20.7% | Place: 58.3% | Value: 1.13x
Why Place is the target here, and Soft 5 rewards his sort of "don't stop" style.
3. Point Vega (No.3) — $6.35 / $2.35 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.00
Prob 15.2% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.22x
Why He's capable of leading and staying in the hunt, even if he's not always finishing clean.
Roughie: Venom Rush (No.8) — $9.80 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.76x
Why He's got upside, but you're backing this race to be decided by the top-on pace brigade.
Race type: Benchmark 70, 2020m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so the race gets tactical and long range.
Punty read: When it's slow over 2020m, that's when you start seeing "positioning beats horsepower" reality. Stranglehold looks like the one who can get into the right stalking rhythm and kick when everyone else is stuck in quicksand. Enterprise Private is the danger if he's over the minor stuff and he's got a clean run through. Benzino is in the mix, but the place numbers aren't screaming it strongly enough for a bigger stake. Techna is favourite for a reason but today we're trusting the model's chaos-handicap vibe, it's built for those mid-range movers who can grind through a slow tempo.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Stranglehold (No.7) — $6.35 / $2.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 15.7% | Place: 47.8% | Value: 1.29x
Why Slow tempo suits the grinders, and he's the one most likely to be there when it matters.
2. Enterprise Private (No.4) — $10.90 / $3.80 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 23.4% | Value: 1.55x
Why The model says he's good enough for the frame, but not the right place to add extra cost.
3. Benzino (No.19) — $8.15 / $2.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.16x
Why He might run a race, but the place target is too tight.
Roughie: Artful Girl (No.15) — $12.75 / $4.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.85x
Why If the track turns slick or the race falls apart, she can sneak in, but we're not over-reaching.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so runners who can hold position and still sprint are gold.
Punty read: Dragonne Rouge is the clear story today, she's the standout with the right wet-track profile and a second-up kind of aggression that doesn't need luck to keep building momentum. Spirit Of Barty is the type to hit the line hard, but he's a place play today, not a "must win" play. Grinzinger Champ is value enough on a wet track, he can sit in the race and pick up. Ready For Aimee is your roughie but it's more "if she finds the right pocket she can be dangerous" than "she's top of the script."
Top 3 + Roughie ($22.50 pool)
1. Dragonne Rouge (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 8TH
Bet $4.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$4.50
Prob 31.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.64x
Why Standout on wet form and proven to go when the pace is genuine, that's a nice combo on Soft 5.
2. Spirit Of Barty (No.5) — $4.90 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$10.00
Prob 14.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why Place is where he fits best, he's built for a strong late run into tiring leaders.
3. Grinzinger Champ (No.6) — $5.40 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$9.20
Prob 14.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why He's on pace and the draw plus conditions look okay for a line-hitting finish.
Roughie: Ready For Aimee (No.12) — $10.50 / $3.10 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.21x
Why She can win a race with the right run, but we're letting the favourite brigade dominate the ticket.
Race type: Class 6, 1350m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. This isn't a "sit and pray" race.
Punty read: John Rambo is in the right lane to keep doing what he does best, close enough with enough engine to survive Soft 5. Robrick is the classic value type for place, and North Pole has that finishing profile that can explode late if the race doesn't go too hard too soon. Bluepinot is your "if things go right" roughie because he's a wet-track type that can sneak into the places when the pace is exposed.
Top 3 + Roughie ($18.00 pool)
1. John Rambo (No.1) — $2.26 / $1.12 🏆 4TH
Bet $11.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.50
Prob 27.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.75x
Why Fits the pace picture and Soft 5 doesn't usually bully this kind of runner.
2. Robrick (No.10) — $3.23 / $1.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.06x
Why Model likes him, but the odds line says "don't force it at that number".
3. North Pole (No.3) — $5.40 / $1.65 🏆 2ND
Bet $6.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$4.22
Prob 24.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.60x
Why Place is where the value lives, and this race shape suits his late kick.
Roughie: Bluepinot (No.6) — $11.50 / $2.55 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.9% | Place: 23.2% | Value: 0.82x
Why He can run in the placings, but the ticket's built on three strong legs only.
Race type: Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, small field energy, you either sit in the race or get done.
Punty read: This is where it gets fun. She's Exotic is peaking at the right time and she's the kind that can handle the soft, plus the betting and gear storyline says the stable isn't mucking about. Taltarni Fields is the "classier on paper, value depends on luck" horse, and Surprise Honey is more of a value teetering act. The roughie is Laydownlily, she's a long-odds chance if the leaders tire and the race turns into a scramble late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. She's Exotic (No.5) — $4.85 / $1.85 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$0.79
Prob 22.3% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.36x
Why Sharp profile on wet, right where the pace can work for her, and she's got the class to strike.
2. Taltarni Fields (No.1) — $4.65 / $1.82 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.15x
Why She's right in the mix, but we're not paying twice for the same dream.
3. Surprise Honey (No.14) — $3.85 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 0.75x
Why She can be close, but the place angle isn't strong enough to bet on.
Roughie: Laydownlily (No.6) — $12.50 / $3.50 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.3% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.68x
Why If she finds traffic and sticks, she's a chance, but this is a "let the model hold the pen" race.
Race type: Open Handicap, 1615m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but 1615m turns it into a tactics and finishing-speed job.
Punty read: Express Payment is the one at the centre of it, he's the on-pace type that can keep finding a little bit more in Soft 5, and this distance lets him stay in the race long enough to hit the line. Felix The Scat and The Inflictor are the threats, especially if the track favours those who time their run. Yet He Moves is there as the outside option but we're keeping our feet on the ground because longer races punish wide fumble.
Top 3 + Roughie ($16.00 pool)
1. Express Payment (No.6) — $4.75 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet $5.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 27.0% | Place: 62.9% | Value: 1.58x
Why Pace-friendly trip, proven to stay in control, and Soft 5 rewards this kind of steady pressure.
2. Felix The Scat (No.9) — $4.90 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 15.3% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.92x
Why He's good enough for the frame and the race shape gives him time to go through his gears.
3. The Inflictor (No.1) — $6.20 / $2.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 13.8% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why He's the danger if the pace holds and he gets a clean run, place is the smart way to play it.
Roughie: Yet He Moves (No.4) — $12.50 / $3.10 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 17.1% | Value: 0.62x
Why He's got the look of a place chance, but this is a top-three structure race.
Race type: Class 6, 1615m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. So the midfield efficiency and clean runs decide it.
Punty read: Daggers is the "you don't have to be a genius, you just have to be in the right spot" horse. With a slow tempo, midfield runners who can travel without burning are the ones who split the field when the leaders start their winding-up. Pocketmoney is a better value place angle, and Sosino is in for the each-way type vibe if she can find a better run than last time. Cunnamulla Fella is your roughie for a scramble, but it's a tough task from that profile unless the leaders fold awkwardly.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Daggers (No.4) — $2.55 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$16.27
Prob 31.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why He's right in the pocket for slow tempo, and he should be there close enough to pick up late.
2. Pocketmoney (No.12) — $7.20 / $2.40 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.33x
Why Place odds are doing too much work, so it's a stay-aware, not a double-down.
3. Sosino (No.5) — $9.70 / $2.80 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.30x
Why She's got a live chance to run on, but the model says the place target's too stingy.
Roughie: Cunnamulla Fella (No.6) — $10.80 / $3.30 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 21.7% | Value: 0.87x
Why Needs a proper race break and a clean run, and we're not paying extra for hope.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 6,7,5,2 / 2,5,3,10,8 / 7,19,4 / 2,5,6,12 (240 combos x $0.15 = $35.00) -- 15% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,10,3,6 / 1,5,14 / 6,9,1,5 / 4,8,5,12,6 (240 combos x $0.15 = $35.00) -- 15% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 7 / 2 / 1 / 5 / 6 / 4 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Tengun Tommy (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $1.86
2 - Moshulu Spirit (Race 3, No.2)✗ — $3.40
3 - Daggers (Race 9, No.4)✓ Won — $2.55
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Doomben's on a Soft 5 and the crosswind's got teeth, so expect runners to be travelling like they've got nowhere to be, then finishing like it owes them money. This is one of those days where the rails are +2.5m and your best mates are the ones who grab the sensible legs early, then let the chaos slip in the gaps.
*2) MEET SNAPSHOT***
Track: Doomben, 1200m to 1615m card
Rail: +2.5m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Comebackers + On Pace closers)
Weather: Shower or two, 19°C, wind 22km/h SSW, gusts up to 31.5km/h (watch for late rain risk, slick wide-runner vibes)
Early lane guess: The speed lanes first, then you forgive wide draws if they can handle kickback.
Tempo profile: Moderate to genuine across the first half, then the staying 1615m races slow down and turn into a finishing speed test.
Jockeys to follow:
Jace McMurray: He's been picking up momentum rides, and on wet-ish wheels he's the kind that times it.
Craig Newitt: If a horse looks like it can be put in the race, he usually finds the run.
Robbie Dolan: When there's value to chase, he's often the one you can trust to do it clean.
Stables to respect:
T J Gollan (0 runners): This is where they bring them ready, and second-up angles look sharp.
K M Schweida (0 runners): They don't mind Doomben, and they keep landing on their feet when it's messy.
R L Heathcote (0 runners): You'll hear the betting ring talk about him, but the real story is how his horses handle class ramps.
Punty's take:
Rightio, Doomben on Soft 5 with the rail +2.5m means one thing, lanes that look ugly early can turn into fightin' lanes late. The wind matters too, because if you're wide you cop it in the straight and through the slog, and that can chop the fight out of a few. So today I'm prioritising horses with either (1) pace you can track, or (2) market moves and gear changes that shout "we've got a plan".
The day's got a backbone, Race 1 and Race 3 look like the spine, then Race 9 is the quiet finisher you want in your life. After that, we're place-and-save merchants for most of the card, because the track is giving up ground in chunks, and fourth to sixth can get swapped with one good run.
What it means for you:
Game plan is simple. Back the three-horse spine hard enough to matter, then let the roughies be the "if I'm wrong, I'm wrong at big odds" button. For everything else, lean Place where it's pre-built to pay, because Soft 5 racing turns winners into "still winning, just later" and place dividends into the little life-raft you need.
Also, watch the on-pace runners with slick gear on. If a horse is on the speed and the market is firming, that's usually code for "don't overthink it, let's win ugly." If something's drifting hard, keep your hands in your pockets unless there's a strong map reason.