Saturday, 18 July 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Handicap, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, on-pacers can keep position but the real threat is the runner who can fight on without having to sprint like a 1000m.
Punty read:
This is a "don't overreact to the pace" race. With a slow tempo, horses that can sit mid and then stay brave through the corner are the ones who keep getting first run on the finish. Ko Phangan looks like the steady grown-up, Notified is the one who can close with intent, and Delahra is the live option because she's not in the race to watch from the lounge. Achy Breaky Heart is the messy roughie, and Stunning Kitty is the type you respect, but you also need the race to go weird.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Ko Phangan (No.1) — $2.04 / $1.09 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$15.60
Prob 32.1% | Place: 62.0% | Value: 0.72x
Why He settles just off the work, and Soft 6 at Flemington is where a fighter can keep finding more when others run out of sprint.
2. Notified (No.2) — $3.45 / $1.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 30.3% | Place: 62.0% | Value: 1.22x
Why If the race turns into a grind, he's got the kind of covering ground that usually turns into a late hit.
3. Delahra (No.4) — $4.80 / $1.72 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 28.1% | Place: 58.4% | Value: 1.27x
Why She's been inch-perfect enough to be in the finish, and she profiles for a live place or a sneaky win if the leaders wobble.
Roughie: Achy Breaky Heart (No.3) — $9.50 / $2.55 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 21.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why Backmarker with enough tactics to get involved late if there's interference or if the finish collapses into a running duel.
Race type: Open, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, Hard Kick goes forward, and it's built for someone to hold rhythm and not get swallowed.
Punty read:
This is a proper 1000m where the tempo decides your night. Hard Kick looks like the one to beat because the race shapes for a leader that can take a breath and then keep rolling. Panchenko is the danger that sits closer than people think and can pick off tired rivals. Riverina Lulu is the wobble in the force, and Leopard Shark is drifting like a guy texting in the wrong chat thread. I'll ignore the big drifters unless they show up on the map, because sprint races punish being stuck in the wrong pocket.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)
1. Hard Kick (No.1) — $1.71 / $1.01 🏆 6TH
Bet $12.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$12.00
Prob 38.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.75x
Why Led and won, and with genuine pace on, he gets the best version of his strengths.
2. Panchenko (No.9) — $3.48 / $1.14 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 33.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.30x
Why Back end pressure plus an on-pacer who can still find the front section when it matters.
3. Riverina Lulu (No.7) — $10.25 / $1.72 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$5.76
Prob 10.8% | Place: 60.4% | Value: 1.30x
Why Big place profile with a clear path, she can get into the fight early enough to keep booting late.
Roughie: Dark Matter (No.5) — $13.25 / $2.45 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.1% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 0.77x
Why If the race turns into a chase and speed just vanishes, he can swoop into a slice of the finish.
Race type: Bm78, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so midfield runners can save ground, then the Soft 6 keeps the finishing effort honest for longer.
Punty read:
This is an awkward one, because the pace is slow enough for multiple lanes to sneak into the placings. Madiyya is the model pick because her run style matches what Flemington does when it's not burning up front, and she's got the gear switch to sharpen her focus. Lake Vostok is a real threat if he repeats his brave style from behind midfield. Changing Colours is the mid-priced live danger, and Cat Noir is the one you respect for the late surge.
Top 3 + Roughie ($23.00 pool)
1. Madiyya (No.5) — $4.05 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 27.3% | Place: 61.9% | Value: 1.28x
Why Blinkers first time is the kind of cue that says "we want a different job today", and she's built to keep running.
2. Changing Colours (No.3) — $5.30 / $1.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet $8.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.23
Prob 22.4% | Place: 62.7% | Value: 0.95x
Why Slow pace suits her, and she's been knocking around the mark enough to hit the top five without needing a miracle.
3. Lake Vostok (No.7) — $6.50 / $2.20 🏆 5TH
Bet $4.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$4.00
Prob 13.8% | Place: 46.0% | Value: 1.04x
Why Market support says people believe, and Soft 6 usually rewards those that are still travelling when the run opens.
Roughie: Sweet Jasmine (No.1) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.9% | Place: 21.3% | Value: 0.75x
Why Backmarker type who can slice through late if the pace shape keeps everyone bunched.
Race type: Chaos Handicap, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, plenty of front-running profiles, and the Soft 6 makes it hard for backmarkers to do the full job.
Punty read:
1400 at Flemington on Soft 6 is a battleground, you want to be close enough to grab the race when it changes gear. Laura Eliza is the smooth favourite in the model because she's the type to keep taking ground even when others fade. Davida is the real danger because she's got the speed and the "led and won" pattern. Cherish Me is where the value plays, she's the sort that can box seat the tempo and then still kick.
Top 3 + Roughie ($17.50 pool)
1. Laura Eliza (No.14) — $3.28 / $1.52 🏆 9TH
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 17.6% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.70x
Why If you want a race where being near the lead is an advantage, this is it, and she's got the profile.
2. Davida (No.3) — $5.40 / $2.15 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.12x
Why On pace, gear and form say she's going to be hard to shake once she gets rolling.
3. Cherish Me (No.2) — $10.00 / $2.85 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$11.70
Prob 9.3% | Place: 44.3% | Value: 1.90x
Why This is the "pocket rocket" angle, she gets the tempo and keeps sprinting when others stop.
Roughie: Off Their Perch (No.9) — $12.25 / $3.50 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.07x
Why Backmarker, but if the pace collapses and the leaders start arguing, she can sneak into the finish.
Race type: Open, 1700m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so runners that can hold position then lengthen are favoured.
Punty read:
1700 on Soft 6 at Flemington is where the race starts as a sprint, then becomes a survival game. Flying Done is the model pick because the blinkers-off, fitness-up story fits how these races usually unfold. Prestige Forever is the other big name, he's got that leader energy and the stable looks like they mean it. The Mean Fiddler is the value place shot, she's consistent enough to be in the conversation late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($14.50 pool)
1. Flying Done (No.3) — $7.80 / $2.75 🏆 13TH
Bet $8.00 Each Way ($4.00W + $4.00P) — ✗ Lost, net -$8.00
Prob 17.8% | Place: 58.6% | Value: 1.72x
Why Blinkers off first time is usually about focus, and he's got the right style to keep finding late.
2. Prestige Forever (No.1) — $10.50 / $3.30 🏆 14TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 49.0% | Value: 1.62x
Why Gets to do the job around the right distance, and that on-pacer profile wins these races.
3. The Mean Fiddler (No.14) — $8.90 / $3.00 🏆 12TH
Bet $6.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$6.50
Prob 11.6% | Place: 49.0% | Value: 1.18x
Why She's the one that stays in the race when the run opens, Soft 6 doesn't blunt her kick too badly.
Roughie: Kaleo (No.2) — $11.75 / $3.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.11x
Why Value angle if the speed gets messy and he gets a run through the gaps.
Race type: Open, 2800m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, so you want the stayer that can keep rolling, especially from the right midfield.
Punty read:
This is the long haul where you don't survive on vibes. Bold Soul is the pick because he's got the staying power and the kind of running pattern that wins when the race isn't run like a sprint. Black Run is the classic "on the bridle, then fights back" type. Samuel Langhorne is the roughie because the big picture says he can arrive late if someone else does the work.
Top 3 + Roughie ($14.50 pool)
1. Bold Soul (No.1) — $5.55 / $1.95 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$31.85
Prob 25.7% | Place: 50.5% | Value: 1.65x
Why He's built for this trip on Soft 6, and the slow tempo suits a runner who can keep momentum without burning out.
2. Black Run (No.3) — $5.90 / $2.05 🏆 6TH
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 20.7% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.54x
Why On pace, keeps finding, and in stayers, the one who holds a spot usually lands.
3. Highland Blaze (No.6) — $3.53 / $1.52 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 0.51x
Why Short priced but the place profile looks thin today, so you'd rather let others fund the gamble.
Roughie: Samuel Langhorne (No.9) — $11.25 / $2.85 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.6% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.85x
Why If the leaders drift wide and stop running, he can swoop late in a long-straight battle.
Race type: Bm88, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, multiple on-pacers, but the winner usually comes from the right spot where they can keep accelerating.
Punty read:
This is a 1200 where being a bit too far back is the fastest way to turn a bet into a lesson. Barari is the model pick because she can stay in the mix and keep running through the line. Royal Insignia is the value second chance, while Moby Dick is the stalking danger. Piastri is the roughie because 1200 likes the right timing, and she can slide into the placings and maybe more if the race tips.
Top 3 + Roughie ($20.50 pool)
1. Barari (No.11) — $2.69 / $1.37 🏆 7TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 29.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.93x
Why She's versatile enough to take a position, and Soft 6 tends to reward those that can sustain pressure.
2. Royal Insignia (No.3) — $9.60 / $3.10 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 55.5% | Value: 1.21x
Why Can slot in behind the speed and then pick off the tired horses with one clean run.
3. Moby Dick (No.4) — $8.55 / $2.80 🏆 11TH
Bet $10.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 11.2% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why Keeps building momentum, and the race shape gives him a lane to keep lifting.
Roughie: Piastri (No.12) — $9.75 / $2.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.29x
Why 1200 chaos, if the front runners start doing it tough, she's got enough tools to arrive late.
Race type: Bm100, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with multiple lanes for midpack to stake a claim, and the wind helps runners sustain down the straight.
Punty read:
If you want a "dominant edge" type race, this is it. Saint George is the model pick because he's the standout on map and market behaviour. Nellie Leylax is the pocket rocket danger who can sit close and then keep sprinting. Bankers Choice is the grinder that can keep popping into the top three. Glory Daze is the main outside menace, but Think Giant is a value mirage unless he finds clear room early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Saint George (No.2) — $5.60 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$48.30
Prob 32.1% | Place: 52.5% | Value: 2.09x
Why He's the one that gets the right journey into the finish, and Soft 6 at 2000m suits his sustained run.
2. Nellie Leylax (No.7) — $7.55 / $2.65 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.5% | Place: 48.6% | Value: 1.22x
Why Can keep working in the sweet spot and pick up chunks late when others get tired.
3. Bankers Choice (No.1) — $12.25 / $3.30 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.39x
Why More for the exacta/trifecta types than the singles, he's better when the race runs for him.
Roughie: Glory Daze (No.6) — $11.00 / $3.40 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 26.8% | Value: 1.05x
Why If the front runners start to wobble, he can keep rolling and sneak a place in the melee.
Race type: Bm78, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so the race is won in the first half and decided late when the leaders are still game.
Punty read:
1000m and Genuine Pace means the race is basically a knife fight with pockets. Next Step Iowa is the model pick because he has enough speed to be involved and a soft run gives him the perfect launch. Prima Bella is the live value for the placings and can sprint through the gap. Street Artist is short on odds and looks like a risk if he doesn't get cover, and One Hard Lady is the roughie because the form profile says she can arrive late if the leaders soften.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Next Step Iowa (No.13) — $3.38 / $1.52 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$0.53
Prob 23.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why He's got the pace to stay in the race, and Soft 6 helps the speed stay efficient longer.
2. Street Artist (No.11) — $3.38 / $1.57 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 0.61x
Why He looks live for placings, but the value profile makes him more for smaller exotics.
3. Prima Bella (No.4) — $7.65 / $2.55 🏆 WINNER
Bet $7.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.92
Prob 15.2% | Place: 61.6% | Value: 1.30x
Why On-pacer enough to get rolling, and Soft 6 should let her keep kicking when the pack starts to break.
Roughie: One Hard Lady (No.10) — $12.50 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $1.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$1.50
Prob 6.8% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why The kind of runner that can keep pushing through late if the race doesn't split too far too early.
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,5,9 / 5,1,3,7 / 14,9,3,10,12 / 3,2,1,6 (240 combos x $0.21 = $51.20) -- 21% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 1,9,3 / 11,12,3,1 / 2,6,7,1,13 / 13,10,4,9 (240 combos x $0.15 = $35.10) -- 15% flexi
Sequence legs are the picks-engine's authoritative choice, rendered from the persisted ticket.
Smart: 14 / 3 / 1 / 11 / 2 / 13 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Ko Phangan (Race 1, No.1)✓ Won — $2.04
2 - Hard Kick (Race 2, No.1)✗ — $1.71
3 - Saint George (Race 8, No.2)✓ Won — $5.60
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Flemington on a Soft 6 where the race often goes "who's got the lungs and who's got the brains" because the track gives you grip, then steals it back in the last 150m, like a bastard mate asking for 'one more round' at the bar. Good news is Flemington's wind and that NNE nudge helps the finishers down the straight, so if you're quick to blame a horse, do it after the line, not before.
You're getting a day where the early tempo matters heaps, but the big dividends sit with runners that can either hold position through the slog or swoop when others get tired. There's a spine in the card, three horses I want front and centre, and then a stack of race-by-race darts where the value is hiding in the positions, not the hype.
Before we get stuck in, quick heads up, Soft 6 plus rain staying away means the surface should be 'sticky' rather than chaotic. Translation, leaders can still keep doing the job, but if you're too far back you'll spend the straight trying to win a bus ticket home.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Soft 6, 1000m to 2800m card
Rail: Out 3m Entire Circuit
Official going: Soft 6 (expected to play Finish-Over-Flash)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 11°C, light wind, no fresh rain (watch for late swoopers getting home with a tailwind up the straight)
Early lane guess: Outside lanes for swoopers, midpack for the grinders
Tempo profile: Slow to moderate across most races, with Soft 6 stretching everything late
Jockeys to follow:
Luke Cartwright: can put a horse in the right spot and then it lets them travel.
Jett Stanley: patient style, often hits the line when others are doing the wrong thing.
Harry Coffey: strong on positioning, especially when the race isn't running hard.
Stables to respect:
C Maher (10 runners): always around the mark when the market firms, and today the market is talking.
C Maher (10 runners): yeah I'm repeating it, because their runners keep showing up in the right parts of the race.
Patrick Payne (5 runners): loves the Flemington grind, and his jocks usually get a plan to work.
Punty's take:
This meeting is basically a choice between two movies: the one where the hero leads early and never gets caught, and the one where the hero runs from the back and saves the world in the last 50m. Flemington on Soft 6 tends to reward those that either (a) get a clean run to the corner, or (b) are good enough to keep putting pressure on even when the track starts to chew at your legs.
Race 1 is a classic slow-ish 1800m handicap story. Ko Phangan and Notified are the sort that can be around it, but the punter trap is thinking the on-pace unicorn is the only danger. The value is in the classy grinders that can sit near the work and fight through, especially when the pace isn't flying and the finishers get a bit of help.
Race 2 through 5 is where you build a bankroll, then Race 6 through 9 is where you either stand tall or get cooked. Bold Soul and Saint George are the two I want carrying the flag, because they've got the right blend of map, conditions and market behaviour. And yes, I'll take a bit of chaos where it's justified, because life is too short to bet like a pensioner.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive early on the horses that match the race shape. When you've got a genuine pace or a handy enough tempo, taking the leader or the stalking profile is usually the correct move at Flemington because the straight can stretch the field out and the Soft 6 makes sprint efforts last longer. That's why I'm backing Hard Kick and then swinging to the value in the middle races.
But don't go hunting for every long shot. This card has enough "proper" chances that you can build multis and lanes without needing to sacrifice your rent money. If you're playing quaddies, the lanes are doing the heavy lifting for you, and if you're just placing bets, keep it simple, win and place where the money and map line up.
Also, keep an eye on the market support. When a horse firms in a Soft 6 at Flemington, it's usually because someone knows where the run will happen. When they drift massively, it can mean nothing, or it can mean they're about to get done by timing. Today, I'm shopping for firmers and forgiving the drifters only if the race map gives them a clear path.