For all of Punty's tips for Belmont Park, head to https://punty.ai/tips/belmont-2026-11-05

Rightio Ticket Munchers, Belmont is a Soft 5 with a fine day on the way and a bit of rain earlier, so the track is going to be heavy-ish on the edges and the card is going to reward the ones who can get a trip. Seven races, a genuine speed map in four of them, and one slow race that will make the bookies sweat. Grab a coffee and let's walk it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Belmont Park, 1000m to 2100m card
Rail: +6m Entire
Official going: Soft 5
Weather: Fine. 0.2mm rain since 9am, gusts 37km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Genuine pace in Races 1, 3, 4 and 6, moderate in Races 2 and 7, and a slow one in Race 5. Lots of front-runners in the first half, and the slow race is where the speed map gets interesting.
Jockeys to follow:
Holly Nottle: rides five today, including Properata in Race 7 and Blue Can Talk in Race 4, both on the speed or handy from the map.
Holly Watson: rides five today, including Cable Rock in Race 6 and Maybe Maybe Maybe in Race 3.
Lucy F Fiore: rides five today, including Capable Angel in Race 5 and Encroaching in Race 7, two of the biggest shapes on the card.
Stables to respect:
Simon Miller (7 runners): Keppel Gate is our Race 1 selection, and the stable also has Raw Umber in Race 4 and Superfluous in Race 6. Seven runners is a lot of ammunition.
S & J Casey (4 runners): Cable Rock in Race 6 is the one to respect, and Cannykev is a live chance in Race 4.
Luke Fernie (3 runners): Non Reflective in Race 3 plus Chandra and Investing In Rosie in Race 2 give them a spread across two races.

Punty's take: Where's the speed? Four of the seven races are genuine pace on the map, which means the early leaders are going to be fighting for it, and the back-runners get the best of it. Race 1 is a straight shot for Top Of The Town up front from barrier 10, but he has to work across the track to get there, and Keppel Gate from barrier 12 looks the sort to sit behind him and wait for the stretch. Race 6 is the same story with Cable Rock uncontested from barrier 3, a horse with nothing handy in his road.

Bankers versus chaos: Race 5 is the banker race on paper, with Capable Angel the shortest price on the card. Race 2 and Race 7 are where the chaos lives, with a moderate tempo and a big spread of runners who all think they can sit handy. Race 4 is a bit of both, with Niccimota the one everyone is looking at and Raw Umber from barrier 7 the leader who has to be watched. Stables with the numbers today are Simon Miller and S & J Casey, who both have multiple runners in the card's better spots.

What it means for you: Be aggressive where the pace is on your side and the price is fair. Race 1 and Race 6 both have an uncontested leader and a back-runner who gets the trail, so the shape is doing the work. Protect your bank in Race 5 with a single win bet on the short-priced favourite, since the shape is against him and his record is the only thing carrying him. Race 7 is where the value sits if you like the Each Way angle, because Properata has to fight the shape but the place price is worth the look.

Build the quaddie around the banker-heavy legs in Races 4 to 7, but keep the wide legs wide. A quaddie needs a $5 to $10 winner in one of the legs to pay well, and I'd rather take a bit of colour in Race 6 than see the whole ticket die on a short-priced favourite.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Capable Angel (Race 5, No.2) — $1.95
Why The shape works against him in a slow race, and I'm not pretending otherwise, but he's 4 wins from 34 career and 3 from 9 on this track, and he's the form horse by a mile. Shortest price on the card, so he's the banker of the three.
2 - Cable Rock (Race 6, No.2) — $3.60
Why Uncontested lead from barrier 3 with nothing handy, and the shape helps him. He's 3 wins from 29 career with 5 seconds, and he's the one who sets the tempo his way.
3 - Properata (Race 7, No.2) — $3.40
Why He's handy from barrier 8 in a moderate race, and the shape is against him, but his record is the one that carries it: 1 win, 3 placings from 10 career, and time fastest on the sectionals.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 23.87 = $238.70

Race 1 – Quayclean Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, but Top Of The Town from barrier 10 is the only leader and nobody on the card is fighting him for the front. Fila Mia from barrier 3 is the nearest to press him, and Keppel Gate from barrier 12 has to work from the back, which the shape is in his favour for. Top Of The Town has to cross the field to get the lead, so the pace suits the ones coming from behind.
Punty read: Keppel Gate is the bet and it's the one I'm putting the money on. From barrier 12 he gets the trail behind a lone leader, the speed map says the shape helps him, and the Chris Parnham and Simon Miller combo has won 87 times from 392 rides at this track. The danger is Top Of The Town if nobody comes to test him, but he's drawn 10 and has to work to cross, so I'd rather follow than try to beat him. Incredible Mr Fox drops his visors for the first time today and he's a horse to watch, not a bet.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Keppel Gate (No.10) — $3.30 / $1.57
Bet $15.00 Win, return $49.50
Prob 22.3% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.74x Steady since tip
Why Back from barrier 12 behind a lone leader, and the shape hands him the trail. The jockey and trainer combo is the strongest on the card for this type of run.
2. That Is Justice (No.12) — $4.20 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.7% | Place: 51.9% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Incredible Mr Fox (No.6) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why Visors come off for the first time today, and Paul Harvey rides from barrier 1. He's a horse who needs to get a clean trip, and the place price doesn't pay enough to justify a saver.

Roughie: Fair Machino (No.11) — $9.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why No career starts on the card and no map position, so this is a pure punt on the price. S & J Casey and Brayden Gaerth have a combo at this track that is the only thing I can point to.

Race 2 – Afgri Equipment Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with two leaders in Threads Of Glory from barrier 1 and Thunder Isle from barrier 4, so they'll be fighting for the front and the early pace may not be as hot as the speed suggests. The back half is where the shape is, with Chandra and Investing In Rosie both helped by the expected pace. Mr Kaplan from barrier 5 settles midfield and the shape helps him.
Punty read: Mr Kaplan is the bet. Visors go on for the first time and the market has backed him from $5.00 into $4.00, which is money coming. He's a placed horse rather than a winner at this stage, with 1 second from 5 career, so I'm backing the pace and the market rather than a flawless record. The danger is Talk Too Much from barrier 2 with ear muffs on for the first time, and the back-runners Chandra and Investing In Rosie if the leaders go too hard.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Mr Kaplan (No.10) — $4.00 / $1.75
Bet $15.00 Win, return $60.00
Prob 25.7% | Place: 52.8% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why Visors on for the first time, the market is backing him, and the shape suits a midfield horse in a moderate race. He's the one who lands it if the leaders go to the front and hold on.
2. Capall Gasta (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Talk Too Much (No.2) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 46.0% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why Chloe Azzopardi rides from barrier 2 on-pace, with ear muffs on for the first time and a second from one start on good. He's the one to watch if the leaders run out of petrol.

Roughie: Reel Dancer (No.16) — $21.00 / $4.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.9% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 1.02x Steady since tip
Why Map is unknown, so I'm claiming no position. Chris Parnham and Simon Miller are a strong combo on the card, and at $21.00 you're paid to dream if the race lands his way.

Race 3 – MC Equine Surfaces Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Universal Talk from barrier 8 the only leader, so there's no real fight for the front. Just Kick from barrier 2 sits midfield and the shape helps him. The back half has Snippets Return, Vinny Nay, Rakitin and Saints 'n' Sinners all wanting cover, and the wide draws mean they'll be working hard to get into the race.
Punty read: Just Kick is the bet. From barrier 2 he sits midfield with the shape helping, and the sectionals on his record are the best on the card: L600 fastest, L400 rank 2 and time fastest. He's the horse I'd trust in the best position. Danger is Universal Talk on the front, though he's 0 wins from 6 career with one second, so he's not one to fear over a good run. Maybe Maybe Maybe is the one from barrier 5 who can sit handy and pounce.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Just Kick (No.3) — $3.80 / $1.65
Bet $13.00 Win, return $49.40
Prob 17.3% | Place: 58.8% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why Jason Lyon rides from barrier 2 with the shape helping, sectionals fastest on the card and placed four times from nine career. The win price is short but the case is strong.
2. Non Reflective (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Maybe Maybe Maybe (No.16) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 45.6% | Value: 1.01x Steady since tip
Why Holly Watson rides from barrier 5 on-pace, a second from three starts on good with the D M Luciani stable behind him. He's the one who sits handy and can run into the finish.

Roughie: Saints 'n' Sinners (No.14) — $15.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Back from barrier 18, with lugging bit on for the first time and the shape helping back-runners. If the front-runners blow up, he's the one who can come from a long way back.

Race 4 – Reliable Asset Maintenance Hcp (C5)

Race type: Class 5, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Raw Umber from barrier 7 the only leader, but Niccimota, Repeater and Blue Can Talk are all close enough to press him. Niccimota sits handy from barrier 4 and the shape helps him. King's Drama and Lifeisbutadream are the back-runners who need the pace to hold up, while Rodney Oh Rodney is hurt by the shape.
Punty read: Niccimota is the bet. From barrier 4 he sits handy with the shape in his favour, and his record is the best on the card: 5 wins from 25 career, with a clear 5 wins at this distance. He's the one the market likes too. The danger is Cannykev from barrier 5, who sits midfield and has some good stats on the sectionals, and Blue Can Talk from barrier 2 on the speed. Lifeisbutadream is the one in the back half who could blow the race open if the pace is hot.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Niccimota (No.1) — $2.80 / $1.35
Bet $12.00 Win, return $33.60
Prob 24.6% | Place: 45.1% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 4 with the shape in his favour, and the best record on the card at this trip. He's the banker in the race.
2. Cannykev (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Blue Can Talk (No.8) — $7.50 / $2.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why Holly Nottle rides from barrier 2 on-pace with the shape helping, and sectionals fastest on the card. He's a horse who can sit close and finish.

Roughie: Lifeisbutadream (No.7) — $9.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 1, with Holly Watson riding and the tongue tie off for the first time. He's 2 wins from 10 career, so if the race breaks up he has a real path.

Race 5 – Liquor Barons (Bm54+)

Race type: BenchMark 54+, 2100m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with nobody mapping to lead. Worcester from barrier 1 is the likeliest to find the front, and that's the only shape to speak of. Capable Angel from barrier 8 is midfield and the shape is against him, but a slow race in a 2100m event favours the one with the best finishing record, and his is the best on the card.
Punty read: Capable Angel is the bet, and it's a short price, so he's a banker not a bargain. The shape works against him in a slow race, and there's no way round that, but 4 wins from 34 career and 3 wins from 9 on this track carry the case. Queen Nardi from barrier 4 can sneak in, and Worcester is the one to watch if the slow tempo lets him steal the lead.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Capable Angel (No.2) — $2.00 / $1.13
Bet $7.50 Win, return $15.00
Prob 50.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.01x Steady since tip
Why Lucy F Fiore rides for Brandon Fiore and the shape works against him, but the record is the best on the card and it's the form horse by a mile. Short price, so he's a banker, not a bargain.
2. Queen Nardi (No.3) — $7.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Worcester (No.4) — $8.50 / $2.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why Jason Lyon rides from barrier 1 handy, and the shape helps him. He's the likeliest to find the front in a slow race, so he's the one that could steal it.

Roughie: Guns Away (No.6) — $13.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why Midfield with the shape against him, but Jordan Turner rides and he's won once from five starts on track. A slow race can make a stayer of anyone.

Race 6 – Glenroy Chaff Hcp (C3)

Race type: Class 3, 1300m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Cable Rock from barrier 3 the only leader and nothing handy in his road. The shape suits the back half, with Forgotten Son, Return Of The Mach and Gingers Sister all wanting cover, and Return Of The Mach from barrier 7 is hurt by the shape. Cable Rock sets the tempo his way.
Punty read: Cable Rock is the bet. He's uncontested on the lead from barrier 3 and the shape helps him, with 3 wins from 29 career and a sectional time that's the fastest on the card. He's the one who sets the pace and the others have to chase him. Danger is Return Of The Mach, who has the fastest L600 on the card, but he's drawn wide and the shape works against him, so he's a horse to watch in a closing race.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Cable Rock (No.2) — $3.80 / $1.60
Bet $10.50 Win, return $39.90
Prob 27.2% | Place: 51.6% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why Uncontested leader from barrier 3, with the Holly Watson and S & J Casey combo at the front of the race. He's the one who sets it up.
2. Return Of The Mach (No.6) — $4.80 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. I'm Odette (No.3) — $5.50 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why Jason Lyon rides from barrier 4 midfield and the record on good is 2 wins from 4 starts. He's a soft-track type who can close late.

Roughie: Superb Vintage (No.7) — $12.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 24.3% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 2 with Chloe Azzopardi riding, and he's 3 wins from 11 career. The sectional time is rank 2 on the card, so he's got the pace to make a late run.

Race 7 – Morley Growers Market Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with nobody mapping to lead, so the front will be contested by Properata from barrier 8 and Encroaching from barrier 1. Encroaching has the shape helping him from the front, but Properata has to fight the shape from handy. Super Sunny is drawn wide at barrier 10 and has to work to cross.
Punty read: Properata is the each-way bet, and the shape is against him. He's handy from barrier 8, with 1 win and 3 placings from 10 career, and the time is the fastest sectional on the card. The danger is Encroaching from barrier 1, who the shape suits, and he's the one to watch even though he isn't a bet for me today. Tex 'n' Cee from barrier 5 is the one who can run into the race at a short price.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Properata (No.2) — $3.60 / $1.57
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P), collects $27.14 if it wins ($18.90 win + $8.24 place), $8.24 if it only places
Prob 27.1% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.98x Steady since tip
Why Handy from barrier 8 in a moderate race, with the shape against him. His record is the one that wins it, with sectionals time fastest and a track record of 1 win and 1 second from 5.
2. Encroaching (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Tex 'n' Cee (No.4) — $3.50 / $1.57
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.4% | Place: 59.0% | Value: 0.61x Steady since tip
Why Steven Parnham rides from midfield barrier 5 and has 3 seconds from 4 on good. He's the one who runs into the placings at a short price.

Roughie: Countersunk (No.5) — $11.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why Back from barrier 2 with Jason Whiting riding, and the L400 is the fastest on the card. If the front-runners fade, he's the one with the finishing kick.

SEQUENCE LANES

QUADDIE (R4 to R7)

Smart: 2,1,8 / 2,3 / 2,6,3 / 2,4,3 (54 combos x $0.3704 = $20.00) -- 37% flexi
Punty's take: R4 and R5 are the tight legs, with Niccimota and Capable Angel both short and the Race 4 and Race 5 bankers keeping it alive. R6 and R7 are wide open, so the risk sits there, and the flexi keeps it live even if one of the favourites gets beaten. Entertainment-level stake with a real shot if the banker legs hold.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Opposite visor swap
Mr Kaplan (No.10) in Race 2 puts visors on for the first time and the market has moved from $5.00 into $4.00 [HEAVY]. Incredible Mr Fox (No.6) in Race 1 takes his visors off for the first time, so one goes on and one comes off.
2 - Ear muffs party in Race 2
Talk Too Much (No.2), Thunder Isle (No.8) and Psychic Storm (No.9) all wear ear muffs pre-race for the first time. Vinny Nay (No.7) in Race 3 also has them on, so there's a bit of a pre-race fashion show going on.
3 - Tongue tie with the only leader in Race 4
Raw Umber (No.5) wears a tongue tie for the first time and is the only leader on the map. Less of a race tactic, more of a lad going to the disco in a tie that's a bit too tight, and I'll be watching to see if it holds.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Soft 5, fine skies and a card that rewards the trip more than the noise. Keep your bank honest, let the favourites do their thing in Race 5, and remember the best punters are the ones who are still standing at the last race.