Thursday, 05 November 2026
Punty's Early Mail
For all of Punty's tips for Ipswich, head to https://punty.ai/tips/ipswich-2026-11-05
Rightio Loose Units, Ipswich is sitting on a Soft 6 with the rail at +9m Entire and a six-race card running from 800m out to 1700m. Rain has soaked it, the sky is fine, and there is a cheeky breeze, so the speed is going to matter more than the bloke with the fancy pedigree. Grab a seat, mate, because the pace maps are doing the talking today.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ipswich, 800m to 1700m card
Rail: +9m Entire
Official going: Soft 6 (11mm last 24hrs, 18mm last 7 days)
Weather: Fine, gusts 18.5km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Moderate in R1, R2 and R4, Slow in R3, Genuine in R5, Hot in the 800m sprint in R6
Jockeys to follow:
Ben Thompson: four rides, Irama in R2, Kadesky in R3, Canadian Fling in R4 and Tara's Reward in R6. Those last two are my big-ticket rides.
Daniel Moor: three rides, Sun In June in R1, Star Of Paris in R3 and Crypto Magic in R4. Crypto Magic is a back-marker who loves a moderate pace.
Mark Du Plessis: three rides, Yoshino in R2, Maurita in R4 and Kickuphigh in R5. Yoshino is the one I'd watch for a sneaky run.
Stables to respect:
Beau Gorman (3 runners): Bent Bridge in R3, I Am A Winner and Mishani Devine in R6. Three shots on a card where the sprint is the chaos.
G Heinrich & B Rodgers (3 runners): Gold In Paris and Defiant Miss in R1, Yoshino in R2. Gold In Paris is a price to ignore, but the stable has numbers here.
R L Heathcote (3 runners): Miss Kit Kat in R1, Estrondo in R2 and Inquicktime in R4. Estrondo is the one with the sectionals to make noise late.
Punty's take: The speed is the story. R1, R2 and R4 all grade out as moderate, and nobody in those fields is a natural front-runner, so the early fight is open and the pace will be decided by who gets a soft sit. R3 is the slow one. Kadesky from barrier 2 and Tulong from barrier 1 are the ones most likely to find the front, and the wide draws for Astern Effort and Bent Bridge make that race a traffic jam. R5 is the genuine pace race, with Super Intent the only real leader on the map. If he gets clear, the race is his to lose. R6 is the chaos race. Four runners want the lead in an 800m sprint from wide gates, and somebody is going to get cooked.
What it means for you: Be aggressive in R5 and R4, where the shape either hands the race to one horse or rewards the ones coming from behind. Protect your money in R6, where a hot pace from wide gates can go a few ways and the value sits with the horse who gets a sit. R3 is a no-bet race for me until the market gives us prices. My money is on Plan Of Attack in R1, Canadian Fling in R4 and Blakemore Avenue in R2, so build your day around those three.
PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI
These are the three bets the day leans on.
1 - Plan Of Attack (Race 1, No.5) — $2.30
Why Sits handy from barrier 7 in a moderate race that the shape helps, and he ran second at Ipswich 1200m last start.
2 - Canadian Fling (Race 4, No.1) — $2.65
Why Won at Gold Coast 1400m last start and handles the ground, even though the shape works against him from barrier 1.
3 - Blakemore Avenue (Race 2, No.5) — $4.00
Why Three wins from nine at this trip, barrier 2 gives him a handy sit in a moderate race, and he's 4kg lighter than last start.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 24.38 = $243.80
Race 1 – Allclass Kubota Mdn Hcp
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace on paper, and nobody maps as a natural leader, so the fight for the front is open. Logan Downs has to work from barrier 12 to cross, while Plan Of Attack from barrier 7 can sit handy without much fuss. The expected pace suits the back half, so Flashing Star and Enterprise Jamayka have the wind behind them, but Plan Of Attack is the one the shape helps in the middle of the race.
Punty read: Plan Of Attack is the bet, $15.00 to win, and he's the one who sits handy from barrier 7 in a race that suits his running. Second at Ipswich 1200m last start is the form that matters, and he's 2kg heavier than his last run, which is the only knock I can find. The danger is No No No No No, who has run third and third in the last two and is sitting midfield at $3.20, but the place price doesn't pay enough to bother with. Logan Downs is the wide-drawn wildcard I'm having a dart at.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Plan Of Attack (No.5) — $2.30 / $1.32
Bet $15.00 Win, return $34.50
Prob 29.8% | Place: 62.4% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy in a moderate race that suits him, good on the ground with a Good record of 1 start, 0 wins, 1 second, and Ms Cejay Graham rides with K M Schweida's stable.
2. No No No No No (No.2) — $3.20 / $1.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.8% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.55 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Gold In Paris (No.7) — $7.50 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.62x Steady since tip
Why No jockey is named on the card and the map position is unknown, so I'm only watching this one.
Roughie: Logan Downs (No.4) — $13.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.08x Steady since tip
Why If the pace stays moderate and he finds the front from barrier 12, he can steal it. He's been second at Kilcoy 1200m last start and has 1 second from 2 starts over this distance.
Race 2 – Barrier Reef Pools Hcp (C5)
Race type: Class 5, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with six runners who could take the lead and no one who has to. Irama from barrier 7 and Greyzous from barrier 6 have to work to cross, so the inside gates are where the early speed sits. Estrondo is the one the shape favours, coming from the back, while the handy runners in the middle have to run into the expected pace. Blakemore Avenue from barrier 2 settles handy and the shape helps him.
Punty read: Blakemore Avenue is the bet, $9.50 to win, and he's the one I like most in this field. Three wins from nine at the trip, a soft-ground record of 1 win from 6 starts, and a good draw inside to sit handy give him the profile. Estrondo is the other bloke who can run down the field from the back, but the race is only a seven-runner field, so I'm not going near the place. Yoshino is a roughie who has three wins from 11 on soft and can come into it if the pace is fair.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. Blakemore Avenue (No.5) — $4.20 / place tote
Bet $9.50 Win, return $39.90
Prob 26.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.13x Steady since tip
Why Handy from barrier 2 in a race that the shape suits, and Ms Tiffani Brooker has the ride for J W Healy's stable.
2. Estrondo (No.2) — $4.60 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 45.4% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Irama (No.3) — $4.40 / $2.05
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Drawn wide at barrier 7 so he has to work to cross, but he won at Toowoomba 1200m two starts back and Ben Thompson rides.
Roughie: Yoshino (No.4) — $19.00 / $4.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.5% | Place: 7.1% | Value: 0.48x Steady since tip
Why Three wins from 11 on soft is the path. If Blakemore Avenue and the others sit too tight behind a fair pace, Yoshino can run into the place money from barrier 1.
Race 3 – TAB Hcp (C1)
Race type: Class 1, 1350m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, and the early running belongs to Kadesky from barrier 2 and Tulong from barrier 1 because nobody else is mapped to find the front. Astern Effort from barrier 9, Bent Bridge from barrier 8, Star Of Paris from barrier 5 and Ablesheeba from barrier 7 are all drawn wide and need cover or luck. The shape doesn't suit any one style, so this is a race where the sit and the closing ability decide the finish.
Punty read: Market's not up for this one yet, so my tips land closer to the jump.
Race 4 – Gibson Architects (Bm58)
Race type: BENCHMARK 58, 1700m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Canadian Fling from barrier 1 and Steady On from barrier 6 the most likely to take the front. Inquicktime from barrier 8 has to work to cross. The shape favours the back half, so Crypto Magic, Flop Shot and Interro have the trip in their favour, while Canadian Fling sits handy and the expected pace works against him.
Punty read: Canadian Fling is the bet, $7.50 to win, and he's the one I want on the day. He won at Gold Coast 1400m last start and has a record of 1 win, 1 second and 2 thirds from 6 starts on soft. The shape is against him, but he has the speed to lead or sit handy from barrier 1, and the Ben Thompson and Jack Bruce combo has been flying. Snugg is the back-marker who can run down the leaders late, and Crypto Magic is the roughie who needs the moderate pace to come home.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Canadian Fling (No.1) — $2.65 / $1.30
Bet $7.50 Win, return $19.88
Prob 29.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Won at Gold Coast 1400m last start and has a soft record of 1 win, 1 second and 2 thirds, so the ground suits. The shape is against him, but a handy sit from barrier 1 gives him the first call on the race.
2. Snugg (No.3) — $4.40 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.62 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Steady On (No.5) — $6.50 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 6 and won at Grafton 1410m two starts back. Ms Jett Newman rides for Jimmy Downes.
Roughie: Crypto Magic (No.4) — $12.00 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why The moderate pace suits the back-markers, and Daniel Moor can get him into the race from barrier 4. He ran third at Doomben 1640m last start and has a fine shape if the leaders stop.
Race 5 – Schweppes (Bm60)
Race type: BM60, 1350m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Super Intent from barrier 4 the only leader on the map and uncontested unless Star Of Ascot from barrier 9 or Encrypted Feeling from barrier 2 gets out in a hurry. Star Of Ascot has to work from the outside. The expected pace hurts the midfield runners, Mr Worthington, Duchess Difficult and Hello Dolly Diva, and handy runner Encrypted Feeling, so the race is set up for the leader and the ones who can sit close to him.
Punty read: Super Intent is the bet, $10.50 each way, and he's the one who leads uncontested from barrier 4. The shape helps him, he won at Toowoomba 1210m last start, and Les Tilley rides for Pat W Webster. If Super Intent gets through the early part comfortably, the midfield runners are going to be running uphill. Duchess Difficult is the one who can run into the place money after winning at Eagle Farm 1200m last start, and Einstag is the roughie if the leader gets run down.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Super Intent (No.7) — $4.00 / $1.65
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P), collects $29.66 if it wins ($21.00 win + $8.66 place), $8.66 if it only places
Prob 22.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Uncontested leader from barrier 4 in a race the shape helps, and he won at Toowoomba 1210m last start. Pat W Webster has a strong record at this track.
2. Duchess Difficult (No.4) — $4.00 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Hello Dolly Diva (No.5) — $4.60 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 7 with four seconds from five starts on soft, though she's yet to win on soft. The sectionals rank fastest in the field.
Roughie: Einstag (No.9) — $9.50 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 3 with one win from three on soft. If the leader gets run down by the genuine pace, he's close enough to pick up the pieces.
Race 6 – Ray White Ipswich Hcp (C3)
Race type: Class 3, 800m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, and it's a four-way fight for the lead. Tara's Reward from barrier 13, Igotmymindonyou from barrier 8, Scartoon from barrier 6 and Te Pani from barrier 2 all map as leaders. Tara's Reward and Hidden Nugget and I Am A Winner and Brazen Diva all have to work from wide gates. The shape is against the leaders in this sprint, which means the handy runners who can sit back and wait for the collapse are in the best spot.
Punty read: Tara's Reward is the bet, $7.50 each way, and I'm fully aware the shape is against him. He's leading from barrier 13 against three others who want the front, but he's been third at Gatton 860m last start and won at Gatton 860m the start before. Ben Thompson rides for Jack Bruce, and the Ben Thompson and Jack Bruce combo has form. Scartoon and Igotmymindonyou will be in the lead with him, so if they go out too hard, Tara's Reward can be the one who comes off the fence. Elizahro sitting handy is the roughie if the leaders fall over.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Tara's Reward (No.3) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P), collects $26.25 if it wins ($18.75 win + $7.50 place), $7.50 if it only places
Prob 18.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.93x Steady since tip
Why The shape is against him from barrier 13, but he's won at Gatton 860m and Warwick 800m in his last three runs and Ben Thompson gets him to the front.
2. Scartoon (No.9) — $4.80 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Igotmymindonyou (No.4) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why Leader from barrier 8 who has won at Toowoomba 870m and Gatton 860m in his last two starts, and Kyle Wilson-Taylor rides for Nick Keal.
Roughie: Elizahro (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 4 and has been 154 days off, so he's first-up with a record of 2 starts, 0 wins and 1 third. If the leaders go out too hard, Les Tilley can ease him into the race and he's a live swooper.
SEQUENCE LANES
(Omitted: no staked sequence ticket was supplied for this meeting.)
NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK
1 - Sun In June's blinkers come off
Blinkers come off for the first time and ear muffs go on, after an 8th at Sandown-Lakeside 1400m last start with interference. Watch the market.
2 - Capital Heart is firming
Capital Heart opened at $9.50 and is now $8.00, with tongue tie going on again. That's a market move worth watching in R2, where Blakemore Avenue is my money.
3 - Belle Affair is back after 255 days
Belle Affair has been off 255 days and has won two of three first-up starts. Ear muffs and pacifiers are on again, so the handbrake is off.
FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY
Go easy on the big sprint in R6 and let the speed fight do the work. If your mate tells you he's got the winner in a four-way dogfight from barrier 13, offer him a beer and a seat at the back of the bus.