Saturday, 15 August 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: C3, 1350m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, speed influences matter early at 1350m, but Soft 5 punishes late-wide runs
Punty read: Trafalgar Square looks like the one who gets the trip with the least chaos. He's easing into a midfield trip, then Orman gets a run through the lanes when the front gets tiring. Celtic Sin is the kind of horse that can be game even when things go a bit sideways, and That's Archies Girl looks like she's set up for the longer sprint feeling after those two runs back from a break. Smart Cry is the "if the pace collapses" type, but with the market not overcooking him, I'm not going big.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Trafalgar Square (No.4) — $3.35 / $1.40 🏆 3RD
Bet $14.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$14.00
Prob 25.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why Maps midfield with support, and the bump/hold-up excuses in recent races still leave him as a clean run into the finish.
2. Celtic Sin (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet $5.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$3.50
Prob 19.6% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.10x
Why Handles Soft, loves a race where the front doesn't run away, and she's built for being in the right spot when it matters.
3. Thats Archies Girl (No.3) — $5.55 / $1.80 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.10x
Why Longer trip suits, and slow-start risk was the excuse last time, so if she jumps it'll be a lot closer to the line.
Roughie: Smart Cry (No.6) — $11.50 / $2.85 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.08x
Why He wins if the race gets messy, but I want my dollars where the straight-running story is simpler.
Race type: Handicap, 1350m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, which means the "who gets the run" factor becomes everything
Punty read: Exceed The Sale is the kind of horse that loves a patient ride, then suddenly everyone is looking for sprint lanes in the last 200m. High Authority looks like the danger because she's the type to run through soft ground and actually hold position without exploding. Courthezon is classy enough but she's still got that "fresh, do your job then let's see" vibe. With this pace, I'd rather be on horses that can relax and still be in striking distance, not the ones forced to go early without cover.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.50 pool)
1. Exceed The Sale (No.5) — $2.82 / $1.32 🏆 WINNER
Bet $12.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$21.84
Prob 29.1% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why Strong rhythm for a slow-pace 1350m, and he looks like he can jump, settle, then lift through the middle without losing momentum.
2. High Authority (No.1) — $6.35 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet $7.50 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 21.0% | Place: 40.3% | Value: 1.68x
Why Soft-ground profile fits, and the market move screams she's being aimed at this tempo.
3. Courthezon (No.3) — $4.10 / $1.62 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 51.1% | Value: 0.81x
Why She can lead and dig, but this is the sort of race where the back end gets a lane advantage, so she needs everything to go right.
Roughie: Iskenderun (No.9) — $18.50 / $3.80 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 26.4% | Value: 1.76x
Why He's there for the late swoop if the pace compresses hard and the inside doesn't open up.
Race type: BENCHMARK 90, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace but staying races make momentum king, not speed
Punty read: This is a classic staying race where the turn of foot matters, but only if you get the galloping air through the middle. Felix The Scat is the pick because tongue-tie first time could sharpen his focus late, and he's got the type of form that keeps getting close. Cavalry Man should get a run, and Fernao is the one who can keep grinding if the leaders overcook it early. Marenaro is a sneaky one for a finishers party, but the market and the profiles say the core is Felix and Cav.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Felix The Scat (No.3) — $4.35 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$50.25
Prob 23.9% | Place: 55.5% | Value: 1.28x
Why Tongue-tie first time with a true staying setup, and he's the one most likely to hit the line on a slow tempo.
2. Cavalry Man (No.2) — $4.30 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.6% | Place: 40.9% | Value: 1.03x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Fernao (No.4) — $3.40 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.6% | Place: 48.2% | Value: 0.78x
Why Better chance than his odds say, but he's also the type to get swallowed late if the race flows too cleanly.
Roughie: The Right Way (No.5) — $9.55 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 21.4% | Value: 1.00x
Why Winkers first time is a flicker, but he needs the right build-up and a bit of luck in the run of the race.
Race type: C3, 1350m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, the blinkers types can jump and get travelling
Punty read: Lockyer should be in the right rhythm early. Blinkers first time and that Doomben suit, he's set up to do the job in the lane where the others start to hesitate. Robrick is the big threat because he's been effective getting to the line and he's the sort of horse that turns "midfield" into "position with bite." Meldubious is the grinder, Razors is the one who can keep scraping into the placings. Aldolfito is the outsider look, but this race favours the main lane patterns.
Top 3 + Roughie ($19.00 pool)
1. Lockyer (No.12) — $2.63 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$22.82
Prob 29.7% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.96x
Why Blinkers first time, strong track suit, and with a moderate tempo he should get every chance to run straight through the finish.
2. Robrick (No.10) — $3.65 / $1.40 🏆 4TH
Bet $5.00 Place — ✗ Lost, net -$5.00
Prob 29.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.32x
Why Value angle for a horse that keeps finding the line, and Soft 5 at 1350m is where he can keep stacking placings.
3. Meldubious (No.7) — $3.40 / $1.32 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.0% | Place: 60.1% | Value: 0.71x
Why He's got ability, but he's more likely to be a "run well but not enough" type at this level unless the race falls his way.
Roughie: Aldolfito (No.1) — $12.50 / $2.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 1.12x
Why If he finds the right trip and doesn't get stuck, he can sneak a place, but win needs a lot of things to line up.
Race type: C6, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, so it becomes "who can stay within striking distance"
Punty read: Just Flying is the main engine in a speed-fest 1600m, he looks like he'll get dragged into a proper rhythm and he's hard to ignore. North Pole is the classic grinder, he's proven at the trip and can handle the race being rough. Eclair Awesome is a value outsider if she positions well early. Captain Eagle is a chance if the race opens up, but I'd expect this one to be about the ones who can sit the pressure without dying late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Just Flying (No.2) — $2.83 / $1.22 🏆 5TH
Bet $11.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.00
Prob 26.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.89x
Why Pace advantage in a genuine-tempo race, and he's the sort who keeps hitting the line even when others are tiring.
2. North Pole (No.1) — $3.60 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.80
Prob 21.6% | Place: 66.6% | Value: 0.93x
Why Soft-ground track record plus the way he responds from a calmer ride makes him a strong place option.
3. Eclair Awesome (No.3) — $7.50 / $2.05 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.10x
Why Has the form and wet aptitude, but win needs a clean run while the leaders set it up.
Roughie: Captain Eagle (No.8) — $14.00 / $3.20 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.36x
Why He wins if he catches the track opening, the tempo suits, and he avoids being stuck wide in the mud.
Race type: BENCHMARK 70, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, so midfield positioning and cover is the battleground
Punty read: Pipistrelle is built for this type of race, she's versatile enough to sit and then work into it. Roguery is the lively one and he's backed, so if he's close enough in the straight he'll be hard to run down. Riez Souvent at a price is where you look for the "late crunch" play, especially if there's a lane. Zaher is a bigger swing and Slipsain is the type that can run a place if the race stays honest. But the core is Pipistrelle and Roguery with Riez Souvent underneath for the value.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Pipistrelle (No.2) — $4.30 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 19.3% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 1.05x
Why Can travel on Soft and she looks like she'll be in the race long enough to finish off, even with a midfield tempo.
2. Roguery (No.8) — $4.10 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.8% | Place: 65.0% | Value: 0.93x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Riez Souvent (No.11) — $7.80 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 36.6% | Value: 1.55x
Why Blinkers again can sharpen him for a late grab, and Soft 5 suits horses that can keep grinding.
Roughie: Zaher (No.15) — $17.50 / $4.00 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.3% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.96x
Why The win path is there if he finds an opening in the straight, but he's not the one to overcommit to.
Race type: BENCHMARK 78, 1200m
Map & tempo: Sprint pace matters, if you're not on it early you pay late
Punty read: Braveheart is the straight-up danger, he gets into rhythm and keeps going, and the Soft 5 makes his "stay in it" style even more valuable. Blazing Harry should be prominent early too, and if he can control the lane, he'll be right there at the business end. Addriel is the sneaky third, resuming with winkers off first time gives him a sharper balance in the wet. True Amor and Lion Class are backups, but this is the Braveheart versus Blazing Harry show, with Addriel ready to jump the fence if the leaders start fading.
Top 3 + Roughie ($24.00 pool)
1. Braveheart (No.3) — $2.73 / $1.25 🏆 WINNER
Bet $20.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$34.60
Prob 27.8% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.95x
Why Speed to survive a Soft 5 sprint, and he's the kind of horse who keeps running when others stop.
2. Blazing Harry (No.8) — $3.35 / $1.40 🏆 2ND
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$1.60
Prob 25.3% | Place: 67.5% | Value: 1.06x
Why He's right in the pace frame and Soft 5 doesn't ruin that style, it just separates the men from the myth.
3. Addriel (No.5) — $5.40 / $1.75 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why Trial-ready and resuming with winkers off first time, but he needs the timing to be perfect in a 1200m.
Roughie: Lion Class (No.13) — $17.75 / $3.70 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 17.3% | Value: 0.90x
Why This is the roughie if you get a chaotic sprint and the wide runs are rewarded late.
Race type: BENCHMARK 78, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, but 1200m Soft 5 means you need real early position
Punty read: Grinzinger Champ is a bully in a field like this. He's been on the pace and in this going he can keep applying pressure without getting tangled in the kickback. Tornado Express is the live danger if he gets to the front end without being forced too wide. Acappella Sun and Gospel Girl are the other two who can hang around, especially if the top two start stripping back late. Nepravda is the rougher outsider, but she's not built for a gift, she's built for an opening.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Grinzinger Champ (No.6) — $1.71 / $1.17 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$10.65
Prob 47.4% | Place: 69.0% | Value: 0.97x
Why Big early speed, handles Soft, and he should get the perfect run, right up until the line.
2. Tornado Express (No.7) — $7.65 / $2.90 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.13x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Acappella Sun (No.2) — $7.90 / $3.10 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 29.0% | Value: 1.04x
Why Second-up profile is real and the extra distance helps, but she needs the right lane timing.
Roughie: Nepravda (No.12) — $16.50 / $4.20 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 14.7% | Value: 1.19x
Why If she picks up late from the right spot she can grab a surprise cheque, otherwise she's more "show up and hope".
Race type: OPEN Handicap, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, which often turns into a "who can hold position through traffic" test
Punty read: Hell is your tempo king. Short odds, in form, and he's the kind of horse that keeps drawing benefit from leaders giving him a target, rather than forcing him to chase the entire race. Pereille is a place machine when he keeps finding lanes, and Caspernova is the value swing, but she needs the race to open up a touch. Epic Proportions can run a sneaky race too, especially if the inside starts to rail-bias the finish. This one sets up for a confident front end story, then the middle pack fights like it owes money.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.50 pool)
1. Hell (No.7) — $2.88 / $1.45 🏆 4TH
Bet $11.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$11.00
Prob 18.9% | Place: 58.2% | Value: 0.69x
Why Tempo suits, Soft conditions tend to reward steady speed, and he's got the profile to keep finding the line.
2. Pereille (No.3) — $4.75 / $1.90 🏆 2ND
Bet $2.50 Place — ✓ Won, net +$2.25
Prob 15.9% | Place: 64.1% | Value: 0.95x
Why He keeps finding the right part of the race, and even if he doesn't win he's the kind that can't miss the frame.
3. Caspernova (No.12) — $7.80 / $2.70 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.31x
Why Big price for a reason, but the value is real, and she's the one who can add chaos at the business end.
Roughie: Taltarni Fields (No.6) — $9.80 / $3.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 47.0% | Value: 1.36x
Why Pace map is there and he can keep battling into the finish, especially if the leaders don't sprint away clean.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 5,3,1,9 / 3,4,2 / 10,12,7,1 / 2,1,3,8 (192 combos x $0.18 = $34.56) -- 18% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,8,11 / 3,8,5 / 6,2,7 / 3,7,12,6,4 (135 combos x $0.38 = $51.00) -- 38% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 12 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 6 / 7 (1 combos x $2.00 = $2.00) -- 200% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Exceed The Sale (Race 2, No.5)✓ Won — $2.82
2 - Lockyer (Race 4, No.12)✓ Won — $2.63
3 - Grinzinger Champ (Race 8, No.6)✓ Won — $1.71
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Doomben on a Soft 5 with the rail true, sounds cosy… until the track starts doing that slippery, punchy thing where the front runners get brave and the backmarkers start doing stand-up comedy. 31 scratchings too, so expect a few "why the fuck are we here" moves from jockeys and trainers as they adjust on the fly. Buckle up.
This meeting screams pace pressure, because Doomben in the wet is basically a speed test disguised as a picnic. There's always a section of the field that can sprint under rain, and today I'm circling the ones who look like they'll be prominent early, before the mud throws a spanner in the straightened-up plans. If you're waiting for the kick at the 300m like it's a Marvel movie finale, you'll get served over the top by someone who was already in motion.
My big three spine is short odds, proper profiles, and winners that look like they can handle the kickback. Then we sprinkle a roughie where the "road to victory" is simple, even if it costs you a few hairs on the walk to the TAB.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Doomben, Short sharp sprint to mile range card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Speed on ground with some give, where staying power matters late but early positioning still cashes)
Weather: Shower or two, 19°C, humidity 60%, light gusts (watch for the track going a touch more gluey by race 3-5)
Early lane guess: Up near the speed, then the inside stalkers through the middle lanes
Tempo profile: Moderate pace early, but Soft 5 means the "moderate" gets pulled apart in the last 400m
Jockeys to follow:
James Orman: Gets first dibs on races that turn into positioning contests, and he tends to hold the rail movement well
Jace McMurray: When the map suits, he's ruthless, he gets them rolling and keeps them there
Ben Thompson: Great at turning a "sit and hope" into "sit and strike", especially if the ground stays holding
Stables to respect:
Chris & Corey Munce (3 runners): They go hard at Doomben when conditions suit, and their horses tend to take the right path through traffic
T J Gollan (3 runners): When there's a pace setup, their runners usually arrive ready to run through the line
K M Schweida (2 runners): Strong at placing horses where they can find rhythm, and Soft 5 suits their keep-it-simple style
Punty's take:
Doomben with a Soft 5 rail true is usually a "be on the journey" track. The leaders get a run for their money, because the ground grabs at everyone else. That means horses like Race 4 No.12 Lockyer and Race 8 No.6 Grinzinger Champ scream "I'm going to be in the right part of the track when the penny drops."
Also, keep an eye on the gear changes. Wet tracks reward the ones with equipment that sharpens focus, and this card has tongue-ties, blinkers first time, and even some hoof filler madness. When that lands, it's like someone turned the volume up on the horse, the rest are still listening to the radio.
And yeah, scratchings matter. When the market adapts, you'll often see the "obvious" favourites tighten, while the horses that rely on one specific run of the race get weird. I'm backing the ones with multiple paths, and I'm taking value when the market is basically admitting it's running out of excuses.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive early in the races where the speed map stacks up. Don't overthink the mud, just respect that the Soft 5 makes it harder to make up ground from absolute last. That's why my early bets focus on horses that look like they're either leading, stalking, or at least positioned to get a clear run at the right time.
In the Quaddie-style lanes, we're going to need coverage in a couple spots because the open races are basically roulette if the race shape flips. So for those legs, the plan is include the core threats from my Top 3s plus a roughie that gives you a "if it goes wrong for everyone else" lane.
Now go have a squiz at the big spine, then work race-by-race. Don't chase every horse, pick your battles, and if one comes up short, well, that's racing, not therapy.