Sunday, 25 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Maiden, 1350m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, with Fullheadofsteam the only LEADER on the map. ON-PACE: Defiant Caesour (No.2). MIDFIELD: Aquafox (No.1), It's A Solid Deel (No.6), Makenzie (No.9), Uncommon Mind (No.11). BACKMARKER: Initially (No.5), Crimson Waltz (No.7), Golden Basilica (No.8), Social Dancer (No.10), Another Bee (No.13). UNKNOWN: Whispers D'silver (No.12).
Punty read: Fullheadofsteam is the bet and it's not complicated. He's the only LEADER on the map in a Genuine Pace race, he ran 3rd at Port Lincoln 1210m last start, and the money has come from $3.10 to $2.54. The caveat is that he's yet to place from two starts on soft, so the rain is the question. Uncommon Mind (No.11) is the one I'm watching from midfield, a 1.14 map factor and a market that's been hammered from $10.64 to $5.80. Makenzie (No.9) has had money too, but he's midfield and came 5th at Port Lincoln 1210m last start, so he's a danger, not a banker.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Fullheadofsteam (No.3) — $2.50 / $1.35 🏆 4TH
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 38.5% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.96x
Why He's the only horse on the card that's going to get a free run to the front, and the money has confirmed it. He'll need to handle the soft, but his speed rank and the market support back up the way I read it.
2. Uncommon Mind (No.11) — $5.40 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.71x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Makenzie (No.9) — $6.60 / $2.40 🏆 12TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why Money has come for him from $10.00 to $7.00, and his extended form has a 5th at Port Lincoln 1210m. He's midfield and needs luck in the run, which is why he's the third pick and not the second.
Roughie: It's A Solid Deel (No.6) — $13.00 / $3.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.69x
Why MIDFIELD in a Genuine Pace race, with a 1.92 value line and a place profile that's been picked up. If the leader gets run down by the midfield, he's the one who can run on.
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Fomenter the LEADER. ON-PACE: Offa's Dyke (No.2), Trevidi (No.4), Gerace (No.6), Go Ask Alice (No.7), Penny Pedrille (No.8), Trapeze Queen (No.11), Velocity Rose (No.12). MIDFIELD: Sauntering (No.3), Artful Miss (No.5), Princess Of Smiles (No.9), Spreadsheets (No.10).
Punty read: Go Ask Alice is the bet. She's ON-PACE in a field where the speed is on the front and the midfield is weak, and her last start was a 3rd at Port Lincoln 1000m, the same track and distance as today. The market has drifted from $2.18 to $2.92, so the money has cooled a little, but she's still the horse I'd rather have in front of me. Velocity Rose (No.12) is the danger, with money coming from $9.17 to $4.20 and a tongue tie on for the first time. Fomenter (No.1) sets the pace from barrier 15, so the bet on Go Ask Alice relies on the leader fading.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Go Ask Alice (No.7) — $2.80 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$27.00
Prob 25.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.71x
Why Her last start was a 3rd at Port Lincoln 1000m, the same track and distance as today, and she runs ON-PACE from a barrier that gives her a clean path to the speed. She's not the flashiest, but she's the most consistent horse in the field.
2. Fomenter (No.1) — $3.50 / $1.55 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x
Why A real chance — but at $1.55 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Velocity Rose (No.12) — $4.20 / $1.65 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.82x
Why The market has moved hard on her, and the tongue tie is on for the first time. Last start was an 11th at Balaklava 1300m, so the run was ugly, but a bounce-back is on the cards.
Roughie: Offa's Dyke (No.2) — $9.00 / $2.50 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.85x
Why ON-PACE from barrier 1 with a 5th at Port Lincoln 1210m last start where he was held up by interference. If the leader gets gobbled up, he's a rough one that can run on from the inside.
Race type: Benchmark 64, 1210m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace with Chur Nibble and Only One Ruler as the LEADERS. ON-PACE: Talent Scout (No.1), Lava Lad (No.4), Chesteray (No.6), Renegade Chief (No.7). MIDFIELD: There Goes My Hero (No.3), The Last Dance (No.8), Allouvre (No.10), Charka (No.11).
Punty read: Chur Nibble is the bet, each way. He's the LEADER from barrier 7 with a 1-2-1 record on soft and a blinkers-off first-time change that often wakes up a leader. His last start was a 6th at Strathalbyn 1350m, but he lost ground on interference, which was the excuse. Talent Scout (No.1) is the danger with a strong 2-1-1 career and the market moving from $13.33 to $3.25. Chesteray (No.6) has the place profile and the market has been fairly kind, but he's an ON-PACE horse in a race where a leader might get his own tempo.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Chur Nibble (No.2) — $3.70 / $1.57 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$2.26
Prob 23.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.87x
Why He's the speed in a Moderate Pace race, and the blinkers-off change plus a cross-over nose band on for the first time gives him the sort of set-up that suits a leader. The each-way is there because he's the leader and the place is the safer option.
2. Talent Scout (No.1) — $3.50 / $1.57 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.65x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Chesteray (No.6) — $6.40 / $2.05 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.04x
Why Seven wins and a 2-0-0 on Soft 16 record, and the market has been fair on his place chances. He's ON-PACE and dropping 4kg from last start, so he's a serious place threat.
Roughie: There Goes My Hero (No.3) — $9.00 / $2.60 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.98x
Why MIDFIELD in a race that could be hurt by the front runners, and he's got two wins from 32 with some soft form. If the two leaders are caught, he's the one who'll come home from the back.
Race type: Handicap, 1210m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. ON-PACE: Prescient (No.2), Equine Headline (No.3), Bulls On Parade (No.6), She Rex (No.7), Dark Lager (No.8), Queenoftheair (No.11). MIDFIELD: Survey Lane (No.1), The Hass (No.4), Alfano (No.5), In Your Words (No.9), Wendouree (No.10). BACKMARKER: Catalina Blue (No.12).
Punty read: Equine Headline is the bet, and the market has backed him from $10.64 to $4.80. His last start was a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1000m with a 0.3L margin and he's ON-PACE from barrier 3. The horse I'm watching is Queenoftheair (No.11), who has ear muffs on for the first time, a 1 from 17 record and a market that's been backed too. The Hass (No.4) is midfield and steady, but she's on the wrong side of a 0.92 map factor. Wendouree (No.10) is the roughie-to-watch with 0 wins from 6 at 59-60kg.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Equine Headline (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 17.7% | Place: 62.1% | Value: 0.89x
Why He's ON-PACE from a good draw, the market has come hard, and his last start was a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1000m. The jockey is in form with a strong recent strike rate, and he's the one I want on the pace.
2. Queenoftheair (No.11) — $6.00 / $2.15 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 41.5% | Value: 0.91x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. The Hass (No.4) — $5.10 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 0.76x
Why Four wins from 53 with a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1000m last start. She's midfield with a 0.92 map factor, which is a disadvantage, so she's a place chance more than a winning chance.
Roughie: Wendouree (No.10) — $9.80 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.01x
Why He's MIDFIELD, has come from $5.56 to $9.80 in the market, and has the fastest time on the card in his sectionals. If the front-runners stop, he can get home, but the 0 wins from 6 at 59-60kg is a warning.
Race type: Handicap, 1210m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. ON-PACE: Kublai (No.3), Minato (No.5), Strawberry Swing (No.6), Sethnique (No.9), Champagne Effort (No.10). MIDFIELD: Artful Tawny (No.1), Fortis In Armis (No.2), Retrospection (No.4), Bending Away (No.7), The Ineos (No.11), My Mate Cobber (No.12). BACKMARKER: Lake Agawam (No.8).
Punty read: Champagne Effort is the bet. He's ON-PACE, Soft 6:0-1-4 says he's a horse who hits the frame on soft, and his last start was a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1000m by 0.1L. The market has drifted from $3.95 to $5.00, so the money has cooled a little, but he's still the one I'd rather back. Minato (No.5) is the danger with a 1.39 value line and a 3rd at Port Lincoln 1000m last start. Kublai (No.3) is the other one on the pace, with a 1 from 9 record and a market that's been drifting from $4.50 to $6.40.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Champagne Effort (No.10) — $4.80 / $1.85 🏆 9TH
Bet $9.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$9.00
Prob 22.4% | Place: 63.4% | Value: 1.08x
Why He's ON-PACE with a fair soft record and the last-start form is the best on the card. He's not the cheapest but the value is there, and he's the one who's been running closest to the front.
2. Minato (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.95 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.91x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Kublai (No.3) — $6.20 / $2.25 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.76x
Why Two wins from 21 with a 2nd at Balaklava 1000m last start. He's ON-PACE and one of the more consistent horses, but his market is cooling.
Roughie: Strawberry Swing (No.6) — $10.50 / $2.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet $4.00 Place — ✓ Won, net +$7.60
Prob 11.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.24x
Why ON-PACE and placed on soft, with a 9th at Port Lincoln 1000m last start where he was held up and slow away. If the leaders get run down, he's the place bet that can sneak in.
Race type: Handicap, 1350m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. ON-PACE: Eire To The Jungle (No.1), Noyers (No.3), Midnight Ruler (No.7), Utah (No.8), Navy Gold (No.9), Or Am I (No.10), Agreeance (No.11), Outcaster (No.12). MIDFIELD: Gusmao (No.2), Toorak Blaze (No.5), Testing One Two (No.6). BACKMARKER: Sea Roads (No.4).
Punty read: Utah is the bet. He's ON-PACE in a race where the leaders are sitting tight, and his last start was a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1350m. The market has backed him from $7.52 to $2.25, which is the biggest move on the card in a handicap. Toorak Blaze (No.5) is the danger, MIDFIELD with a 5th at Port Lincoln 1350m last start. Sea Roads (No.4) is the backmarker with a 1.46 value line, so if the front runners stall, he's the one who'll get them.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Utah (No.8) — $2.30 / $1.30 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 26.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.62x
Why ON-PACE in a Moderate Pace race with a 1.14 map factor, a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1350m last start, and the market has come in hard. He's the one who sits where he needs to and can finish.
2. Toorak Blaze (No.5) — $5.80 / $2.15 🏆 11TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.85x
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Sea Roads (No.4) — $11.50 / $3.20 🏆 7TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.99x
Why BACKMARKER with a 1.07 map factor and a sectionals rank that suggests he can run down the leaders, but he's a 1 from 21 type of horse and that's the risk.
Roughie: Gusmao (No.2) — $9.20 / $2.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.13x
Why MIDFIELD with a 4-10-6 career line and a time rank of 2 on the card. He's a horse who hits the frame, and the market has drifted from $5.26 to $10.50, so he's a value check if the leaders blow up.
Race type: Benchmark 68, 1350m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. ON-PACE: Raikoke (No.1), Chef Militaire (No.2), My Mate Sonny (No.3), Flash Feeling (No.4), Monarchs Brae (No.5), I Need A Drink (No.6), I'm A Dexstar (No.7), Stolen Kiss (No.8), Kokoro (No.9), Cleitus (No.10), Divine Fire (No.11). BACKMARKER: Georgiegina (No.12).
Punty read: Raikoke is the each-way bet. He's ON-PACE from barrier 1, his last start was a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1350m by 1.2L, and the market has him at $4.40 with no move listed. I'm A Dexstar (No.7) is the danger from barrier 5 with a 3rd at Port Lincoln 1350m last start. Chef Militaire (No.2) is the one who has the most soft form but has a warning on the weight record at 64kg.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Raikoke (No.1) — $3.90 / $1.65 🏆 3RD
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — Cashed, net -$1.84
Prob 24.0% | Place: 62.5% | Value: 0.94x
Why ON-PACE from barrier 1 with a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1350m last start, and the place is the safer bet in a 13-horse field. The each-way is there for the race that can go either way.
2. I'm A Dexstar (No.7) — $4.20 / $1.72 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.89x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Chef Militaire (No.2) — $9.50 / $2.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.21x
Why He won at Port Lincoln 1350m last start and at Port Augusta 1396m, so he's got the soft form. The weight warning at 64kg makes him a place proposition more than a winner.
Roughie: Kokoro (No.9) — $14.00 / $3.90 🏆 8TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.3% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.74x
Why ON-PACE with a 4th at Port Lincoln 1350m last start, and he's had a 2 from 13 soft strike record. The market has been very cold on him, so if the leaders stall, he's the rough one who can flash home.
Race type: Benchmark 68, 1000m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace with Tydeus (No.2), Trade Game (No.5) and Our Divinyl (No.6) all mapping LEADER. ON-PACE: Pick 'n' Mix (No.3), Bjarne (No.4), The Wirrulla Boy (No.8), Vasilias (No.9), Samanth (No.10), Another Bride (No.11), Bel Hotesse (No.13). MIDFIELD: Sassy For Sure (No.7), Evening Bride (No.12). Bjarne is the only horse flagged in the disadvantaged group.
Punty read: Sassy For Sure is the bet, and I'm not pretending the price is a bargain at $1.93, but he's the banker of the day. He's MIDFIELD in a Hot Pace race where the three leaders will burn each other out, and his two Port Lincoln 1000m wins on extended form are the best profile in the field. Pick 'n' Mix (No.3) is the one I'm watching on the pace, with money from $7.00 and a 1 win from 10 career. The Wirrulla Boy (No.8) has the market coming from $10.42 to $5.30, so he's another danger from ON-PACE.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Sassy For Sure (No.7) — $1.80 / $1.12 🏆 3RD
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 33.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.59x
Why He's MIDFIELD in a Hot Pace race, and the two Port Lincoln 1000m wins are the best recent form in the field. He's a short price and short-priced winners rarely pay much, but he's the banker and the pace is set up for him.
2. The Wirrulla Boy (No.8) — $5.80 / $1.90 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.97x
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Pick 'n' Mix (No.3) — $6.60 / $2.05 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.92x
Why ON-PACE with a 2nd at Port Lincoln 1000m last start, and he's the one who'll be running on if the leaders come back to the field.
Roughie: Our Divinyl (No.6) — $16.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.11x
Why He's a LEADER in a Hot Pace race with two other leaders, so the path is a hard one. If the other two burn out and he holds on, he's the one who can steal this with a late-run finish.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,11,9 / 7,1,12 / 2,1,6,3 / 3,4,11,10 (144 combos x $0.3472 = $50.00) -- 34.7% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 10,3,5,6 / 8,5 / 7,1,2 / 7,8 (48 combos x $0.4167 = $20.00) -- 41.7% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2,1,6,3 / 3,4,11,10 / 10,3,5,6 / 8,5,2,4 / 7,1,2,9 / 7,8,3,6 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Fullheadofsteam (Race 1, No.3)✗ — $2.54
2 - Utah (Race 6, No.8)✗ — $2.25
3 - Sassy For Sure (Race 8, No.7)✗ — $1.93
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Degenerates, Port Lincoln is sitting on a Soft 7 after 18.5mm in the last 24 hours, the speed is concentrated in just a couple of spots, and the market has been busy all morning, so grab a coffee and read this one slowly.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Port Lincoln, 1000m to 1350m card
Rail: True (position not given in the data)
Official going: Soft 7 (18.5mm last 24hrs, 20mm last 7 days)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 15°C, humidity 56%, wind 18km/h SSW
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Race 1 is Genuine Pace with Fullheadofsteam the only LEADER on the map. Races 2 and 3 have a genuine front-runner or two, with Race 2 led by Fomenter and Race 3 by Chur Nibble and Only One Ruler. Races 4 to 7 are Moderate Pace, and Race 8 is the Hot Pace of the day with Tydeus, Trade Game and Our Divinyl all mapping to lead.
Jockeys to follow:
Ms Rochelle Milnes: Eight rides on the card, including Utah ($2.25) in Race 6 and Pick 'n' Mix in Race 8, the two of them doing the heavy lifting in the staked bets.
Connor Murtagh: Seven rides, with Equine Headline ($4.80) in Race 4 and Stolen Kiss in Race 7 among them, and he's on the leaders' list in some of the bigger fields.
Ms Brooke King: Seven rides, with Makenzie in Race 1 and Queenoftheair in Race 4 both in the market's shortlist.
Stables to respect:
J Dunn & K Bishop (30 runners): The biggest string on the card by a mile, with Utah in Race 6 and Equine Headline in Race 4 both carrying the stable's strength. Thirty runners means they'll be in every race, so expect them to be hard to ignore.
Trent & Laura Allen (10 runners): Ten runners spread across the card, with Survey Lane and Dark Lager both long prices, so they're more of a wide-net stable than a one-horse operation.
Byron J Cozamanis (5 runners): Five runners including Talent Scout ($3.25) in Race 3 and I'm A Dexstar ($4.60) in Race 7, so the stable is well represented in the two races that matter most to the multi.
Punty's take: Race 1 is where the speed lives, and Fullheadofsteam is the horse that will dictate the pace from barrier 8. He's the only LEADER on that map, and the market has backed him in from $3.10 to $2.54, which is the sort of money I like to see on a horse in a Genuine Pace race. The mid-card races are where the mugs get themselves in trouble, because Race 3 and Race 4 both look like they could fall apart in a hurry with no true sprinter setting the tempo. Race 2 is the one with the most moving parts, with Go Ask Alice, Fomenter and Velocity Rose all coming out of the same ON-PACE and LEADER neighbourhood, and the market has already made its mind up about Velocity Rose, cutting from $9.17 to $4.20. Race 8 is the sharpest pace scenario on the card, with three leaders in a Hot Pace, which is either going to be a bloodbath up front or a gift for anything that sits off them. Sassy For Sure has the market's full backing from $4.85 to $1.93 and I'm not going to pretend that's a bargain, but he's a midfield horse in a race where the front half of the field is about to be cooked.
What it means for you: Be aggressive in Race 1 and Race 8 because those are the two races where the pace and the market point the same way. Protect yourselves in Race 3 and Race 4, where the field is open and the favourites have the same chance of being rolled by a hot finish as a cold one. The value pockets sit in the outsiders the market has been lukewarm on, not the ones it's been hammering. The staked bets in this mail are the locked picks, and the sequence tickets are sized to match: the Early Quaddie and Quaddie carry the wide shape, and the Big 6 is an entertainment ticket that is priced to dream.