Saturday, 10 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Benchmark 75, 2200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Roca Mile is the speed story (leaders setting it up for a staying battle)
Punty read:
This is a Soft 5 stayers' grind where the leaders don't just lead, they pay rent. Roca Mile is out in front early, but 2200m on a wet deck means midfield runners who can find a clear run are the real danger. Smiling Eyes is the market's favourite because she looks like she's got the run in her, while Miss Seth profiles as the "held up to nowhere" type, which is exactly why she's live if she gets room.
I'm not scared of the value angle either, No Plan Be gets a chance if the speed collapses and the race turns into a lottery for lanes.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Smiling Eyes (No.2) — $1.75 / $1.20 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$11.25
Prob 49.0% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.89x
Why She's the "in the fight turning for home" horse, and she's meant to run her race on this pace.
2. Miss Seth (No.3) — $5.00 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.16x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Roca Mile (No.4) — $5.00 / $2.35 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.41x
Why Might not be first to the line, but in 2200m she can keep poking for checks.
Roughie: No Plan Be (No.7) — $12.00 / $3.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.3% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 1.21x
Why If the leaders gas it up early, this type swoops through the tired stuff.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, ON-PACE types from the gates have every chance to box-seat
Punty read:
Maiden at 1400 on Soft 5, so it's all about who gets control early and doesn't burn fuel in the first 200m. Bellish Boy draws perfectly and should be right on speed. Kirchmeyer is on-pacer too, but I'm backing the inside breaker and the one that looks like she can run straight past maidens.
Shesascorcher at $10 is the little terror if she settles closer than last time, but the real danger for your wallet is backing the horse that stays wide early.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Bellish Boy (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.50 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$26.00
Prob 37.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.19x
Why Inside draw, ON-PACE profile, and she's set up to use that advantage without getting her legs tangled.
2. Kirchmeyer (No.5) — $4.00 / $1.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.74x
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Shesascorcher (No.8) — $9.50 / $2.85 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.9% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.88x
Why Big price runner with a legit path if she finds a run through the wet.
Roughie: Kemosabe (No.10) — $9.50 / $2.85 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.88x
Why If she's good, she's good, but the soft odds picture isn't screaming value.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Iceland Poppy is trying to set it up
Punty read:
This is one where the speed might get ignored by some punters, but Soft 5 rewards those who can take it up and keep going. Delight at $4 is my main bet, because she has the "this could be her day" feel without needing everything perfect. Tricory is the one I'm excited about as value, especially if she turns in with momentum and doesn't get stuck behind tired horses.
Nameless is there too, but I'd rather be with the horses that have better market alignment for the finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)
1. Delight (No.6) — $5.00 / $1.53 🏆 3RD
Bet $9.50 Each Way ($4.75W + $4.75P) — Cashed, net -$2.23
Prob 20.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.96x
Why Genuine pace means she can sit in the right rhythm and keep extending, Soft 5 or not.
2. Tricory (No.11) — $2.90 / $1.14 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.46x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Nameless (No.4) — $4.60 / $1.49 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.77x
Why She's a place prospect, but the price doesn't quite justify the win-risk today.
Roughie: Lindy May (No.5) — $9.00 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.82x
Why Needs the right run, and on wet tracks that can be a coin toss.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Tears Of Victory out in front early
Punty read:
Benchmark 65 at 1400 is where the wrong trip gets punished fast. Tears Of Victory is the leader, and if she can hold enough early energy, she'll look hard to run down. But this is Soft 5, so midfield runners who can keep a steady path and then pounce are deadly.
Kids Got Gears at $4.50 is the type I like, because she has enough tactical speed to be in range when it matters. Flat Stanley is a solid threat too, but I'm not chasing the price, I'm chasing the race shape.
Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)
1. Kids Got Gears (No.4) — $5.50 / $1.88 🏆 WINNER
Bet $6.50 Each Way ($3.25W + $3.25P) — ✓ Won, net +$17.48
Prob 17.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.06x
Why The map supports her being in the play, and Soft 5 keeps reward for those who don't stall at the wrong time.
2. Tears Of Victory (No.11) — $5.00 / $1.86 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 45.6% | Value: 0.93x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Flat Stanley (No.3) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.13x
Why Should run a role if the pace holds, just not the primary value today.
Roughie: Daphne Dior (No.14) — $10.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 1.14x
Why Needs luck in running, but if she spots them turn off, she's in the fight late.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, multiple early speed blokes pushing each other
Punty read:
1200m Open and it's hot, so strap in. The winner here is usually the horse that doesn't get swallowed in the sprint chaos. Iron Hawk at $3.50 is my anchor, because he's proven at this shorter trip and he looks like he's got enough to keep pressing.
Charmrose is the other big danger, because she's the type to keep coming when the faster ones start to splinter. Trobriand sits in the pocket and can jump into the frame if the race turns into a sprint-for-third scenario late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)
1. Iron Hawk (No.2) — $4.20 / $1.69 🏆 3RD
Bet $7.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 21.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why Keeps showing up when the sprint pressure's on, and he's got a realistic path to stalk then stick.
2. Charmrose (No.10) — $4.80 / $1.84 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 45.2% | Value: 1.20x
Why A real chance — but at $1.84 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Trobriand (No.5) — $5.50 / $1.94 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.15x
Why He's in the mix because he's got the class and the trip.
Roughie: Aladdins Jem (No.15) — $10.00 / $2.66 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 28.7% | Value: 1.45x
Why If the speed totally blows up, the wider ones can sneak the win like a bad subplot.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 2200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, Lovelock and El Ultimo out in front, keep an eye on how it settles
Punty read:
Two-turn 2200 on Soft 5 means the first half is pacing the whole race. Private Treaty looks like the one with the class to work into the race and then extend without panicking. Devil In Disguise is the danger, because the trip fits and the market still has her on a radar even at $8.50.
Unwoke is the "if they go too slow early, he gets his run" type, while Strong at $10 is a rougher that could lift if the field strings out.
Top 3 + Roughie ($3.50 pool)
1. Private Treaty (No.3) — $6.00 / $2.16 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $3.50 Each Way ($1.75W + $1.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$3.50
Prob 19.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.34x
Why He maps for the trip, and at 2200 Soft 5, that steady run in behind the speed is gold.
2. Devil In Disguise (No.2) — $8.50 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.09x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Unwoke (No.6) — $5.00 / $1.91 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 28.5% | Value: 0.62x
Why Place hope, but today's value sits more with Private Treaty.
Roughie: Strong (No.1) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.2% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.06x
Why He can lift in a messy race, especially if it stops being a straight-line affair.
Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Hot pace, multiple leaders throwing it down
Punty read:
Ashburton Cup style race means you want a horse that can keep finding heart after the first real pressure. Quintabelle at $7 is the one I like, because she has the run-on vibe and she's been in races that suit her. Eight Pence is the other major threat, because her profile screams "I can be there at the finish" when it's frantic.
Stonybreck also has enough toughness to hit the line running, and the Soft 5 makes that late surge extra valuable.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)
1. Quintabelle (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.18 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $7.00 Each Way ($3.50W + $3.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.00
Prob 13.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.31x
Why Hot tempo means she needs to keep cruising late, and her type usually does.
2. Eight Pence (No.10) — $5.00 / $1.78 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.89x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Stonybreck (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.98 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 34.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why Tough, consistent, and can slide into the top end if the race goes messy.
Roughie: Toa Haka (No.4) — $11.00 / $2.64 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 1.18x
Why Needs the race shape to break his way early, then he can grind through late.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, some speed but plenty of runners can sit in and pounce
Punty read:
This is an Open 1400 where the class horse can get away with murder, but Soft 5 usually punishes those who don't balance early speed and saving energy. Sweetest Thing is the favourite at $1.85 and she looks like the real deal. If she handles the deck, she's the one to beat, full stop.
Zafar at $7 is the value threat, because he's got enough early presence and the kind of ability to keep running through the softer ground. Midnight Oak at $10 is the roughie if the front two get into a scrap and he picks them off late.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Sweetest Thing (No.6) — $1.98 / $1.01 🏆 4TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 33.7% | Place: 60.5% | Value: 0.73x
Why Soft 5 sweet spot, she's got the best profile to carry her speed and keep rolling.
2. Zafar (No.1) — $7.50 / $2.18 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.13x
Why A real chance — but at $2.18 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Dulce Caballo (No.8) — $8.50 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.93x
Why He can run on, but I'm not over-playing the win chances.
Roughie: Midnight Oak (No.9) — $11.00 / $2.64 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.36x
Why Backmarker roulette, if the rail run opens late he can snatch it.
Race type: Benchmark 65, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, on-pace runners get chances but it can tighten late
Punty read:
Mad Max is the market leader at $2.65 and with a Soft 5 deck, the on-pacer types can absolutely steal this if they keep saving ground. Lilly at $9.50 is the value and the real reason I'm not just chasing the favourite, because she looks like she can be in the right spot and keep running.
Dorothea at $4.00 is also a place threat, but the win picture is more about who's likely to be in the first wave and survive the finish.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Mad Max (No.2) — $2.70 / $1.29 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$17.85
Prob 23.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.85x
Why On-pacer, fits the pace scenario, and on Soft 5 the horses who can hold position are deadly.
2. Lilly (No.12) — $10.00 / $2.62 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.58x
Why A real chance — but at $2.62 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Dorothea (No.11) — $4.20 / $1.75 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.9% | Place: 32.6% | Value: 0.54x
Why Place chance, but the value for win is thin.
Roughie: Pequot (No.3) — $9.50 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.24x
Why A good run could land him top three, but he's not my main path to the win.
Race type: Benchmark 75, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, on-pacers like Cool 'n' Fast should get first run at it
Punty read:
This is the finish line race where the deck can swing everything, but I like the profile of Cool 'n' Fast. He's the kind of runner that can settle in midfield, then make his move when the others are starting to dig deep. Villasanti is the danger because his form and style says he can keep showing up, especially if the pace isn't too intense.
Hello Hayley is the value swing, because if she gets into the right lane early, she's capable of grabbing a top-three finish and making you smile.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)
1. Cool 'n' Fast (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$10.00
Prob 24.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why He's built to travel and keep running through Soft 5, and he should get a tactical trip.
2. Villasanti (No.2) — $7.50 / $2.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 34.0% | Value: 1.33x
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Hello Hayley (No.13) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.01x
Why Value play if she's in the right spot early enough to launch late.
Roughie: Ballistic Miss (No.11) — $9.00 / $3.00 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.89x
Why Needs everything to line up, but if it does, she can run in the top end.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 6,11,4,5 / 11,4,3,14 / 2,10,5,15 / 3,2,6,1 (256 combos x $0.31 = $80.00) -- 31% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 3,10,1,4 / 6,1,8,9 / 2,11,12,3 / 1,2,13,11 (256 combos x $0.25 = $65.00) -- 25% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 2 / 3 / 3 / 6 / 2 / 1 (1 combos x $5.00 = $5.00) -- 500% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Smiling Eyes (Race 1, No.2)✓ Won — $1.65
2 - Bellish Boy (Race 2, No.2)✓ Won — $2.90
3 - Delight (Race 3, No.6)✗ — $4.00
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Ashburton is Soft 5 and the rail's True, so everyone's gonna pretend they love mud while quietly checking their phones for scratches. It's one of those meetings where the leaders can get swallowed, and the backmarkers are lurking like Dr Evil in a parking lot. Today I'm treating it like a snack bar at a footy finals, pick the value, grab the safer place levers, and don't fall for the "everyone can see it" favourites unless they're actually built for the race.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Ashburton, 1400-2200m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (expected to play Forward, but with chances for runners who can run through the bog)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 15°C, gusts up around 20.4km/h (watch for slippery patches, especially in the straight feel)
Early lane guess: Early Quaddie loves races 3-6, then the main quad goes hard from 7-10
Tempo profile: Races 1 and 6 look more like speed holds, the rest are mixed, but Soft 5 tends to magnify the benefit of getting into rhythm early
Jockeys to follow:
Bridget Grylls: Gets a stack of rides and often lands on the right horse in the right moment
Jack Taplin: Persistent at the track, usually puts them where they can contest
Lisa Allpress: The kind of hoop that doesn't panic when the run unfolds messy
Stables to respect:
Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson (9 runners): Aggressive early across the card, and they don't mind lifting a horse late
D M Walsh (7 runners): Finds soft-track form and has these race-day "turn it" types
Anna Furlong (6 runners): Quietly dangerous, especially in maidens and winnable middle distances
Punty's take:
Soft 5 at Ashburton is the great equaliser, the speed helps, but only if the horse can handle the grind, because once the field starts punching holes in the kick, that's when your "nice little run" becomes a "why did I back that?" moment. I'm leaning into races where the map looks sorted, and the market support lines up with sane form, because today the chaos is real, but it's not random.
The big story I keep circling is value on place and the "run-on" profiles. In Race 1, I love the shape of Miss Seth and the way the tempo plays, because in Soft 5, being held up is basically a death sentence. Then later, we've got a whole heap of races where the leaders look great early, but the best punting is about who's still going when the track starts throwing punches.
And look, I'm not getting cute for the sake of it. I'll take my licks when a favourite drifts and still wins, but I'm backing the horses that can win without needing a perfect trip.
What it means for you:
Be aggressive where the map and class match up, but protect yourself where the draw or conditions can ruin the lane. For win money, I'm not chasing the absolute shortest prices unless they're clearly built for the race story. For places, I'm playing the horses that should keep finding the line, especially when the pace is genuine.
My game plan is simple: lock the day's spine through the Big 3, then in each race hit the top three plus the one roughie that has a clear path to improvement on Soft 5. Quaddies and Big 6 lanes are for entertainment too, but I'll still structure them like I'm trying to pay for the group's next round, not just donate to the TAB gods.