Saturday, 10 October 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Benchmark 72, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged on Queen Of Clubs, Map has Felix Majestic on the speed with a clear "hold the line then go" feel
Punty read: Felix Majestic looks the one to beat, he's been running consistent third-place type races, and the "on-pace" map means he gets every chance to keep the timing. This rail +2m setup usually punishes wandering wide runs, so the horse that can stay straight and honest at 1400m tends to rack up the results. Alabama State and Magical Moments are the two that can still put their hand up, but the story is Felix sits where he wants and then you're watching a race unfold around him.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Felix Majestic (No.1) — $5.90 / $2.15 🏆 3RD
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 30.1% | Place: 54.5% | Value: 1.94x
Why On-pace profile, strong Good performance, and the way the form strings read, he's overdue to go one better.
2. Alabama State (No.4) — $5.40 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.7% | Place: 46.9% | Value: 1.28x
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Magical Moments (No.7) — $12.00 / $3.30 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.20x
Why Looks like a threat to run a cheeky race, but at this odds it's more "hope" than "value."
Roughie: Force March (No.13) — $10.50 / $2.85 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.91x
Why He's got the class to clunk one late if the pace wobbles, but I'm not stuffing the ticket on a pure roughie angle.
Race type: Class 3, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace, pace advantaged runners include Hammoon Sensation and Spread The Love, Vltava and Wolf Island are disadvantaged on map
Punty read: This is a bit of a chaos handicap, and I'm treating it like one. Costalivin has the strongest "do the job" look on paper at this distance, plus the market's not ignoring him. Ocean Tsunami is live early speed with the map reading midfield, and Magic Merlin has that 'earn the position and strike' angle. But this is the kind of race where if you chase the wrong tempo, you'll watch them go past the line like it's a movie montage.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Costalivin (No.13) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 19.2% | Place: 54.9% | Value: 1.34x
Why Pace map has him handy, and with Good-4 conditions, a horse that can travel and finish is gold.
2. Ocean Tsunami (No.5) — $5.90 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.00x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Magic Merlin (No.4) — $11.00 / $3.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.33x
Why Value sits here, but for a primary bet today, the ticket wants a more reliable map.
Roughie: Hammoon Sensation (No.2) — $9.20 / $2.85 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.13x
Why He can spring into it if the race breaks open, but I'm not spreading out when the chaos handicap is already busy.
Race type: Benchmark 88, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace with pace-disadvantaged Our Anchorage, Sir Chartwell, Mister Rizz on map
Punty read: At 2000m you want quality, not vibes, and Starzintheireyes is ticking the most boxes. Barrier 9, midfield map, still has the speed to get involved and the profile screams "2200-type thinking" even at 2000. Barrengarry is the danger, and Anthracite has the class to be in the mix late. This race feels like a straight-up top-quality fight where backmarkers need pace to die properly.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Starzintheireyes (No.4) — $4.40 / $1.65 🏆 4TH
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 28.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.41x
Why This is his race to lose, he has the class and the finishing capacity, and he's not drawn like a cursed rocket.
2. Barrengarry (No.9) — $3.30 / $1.45 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.03x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Anthracite (No.11) — $5.90 / $1.95 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.02x
Why Would love to be on him for a finish bet, but value isn't landing the right way.
Roughie: Mukhtalif (No.12) — $9.00 / $2.70 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 36.2% | Value: 0.99x
Why If the race turns into a slog, he can sneak into the trifecta rhythm, but this is still a quality contest.
Race type: Open, 1800m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, early pressure from Cormier and Genesis Runner, Stormy Marco and Persian Wonder are map-disadvantaged
Punty read: This one is about the "who's really getting first look at the race" factor. Cormier at barrier 1 is the kind of horse that gives you a clean job in a pace-driven mile and a half, and Genesis Runner plus Proxima Dea are right there as the stalking risks. The rest? They've got to make it happen with gaps and luck.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
1. Cormier (No.1) — $5.50 / $2.00 🏆 4TH
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P) — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 21.9% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 1.34x
Why Barrier 1 plus the race-shaping role, he's built for a controlled tempo and then holding the line.
2. Proxima Dea (No.11) — $4.50 / $1.70 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.2% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 1.00x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Genesis Runner (No.5) — $6.20 / $1.90 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.27x
Why He's got gear changes and straight-run credentials, but the ticket is already on the right spine.
Roughie: Scarole (No.6) — $9.80 / $2.80 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.85x
Why If the pace folds, she can pick up pieces, but she needs everything to go her way.
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, leaders include Plagiarism, pace-disadvantaged includes Revengeance and Plagiarism and others on map
Punty read: 1400m open with a genuine tempo is where you back the horse that can keep momentum, and Chuchichaschtli is basically the centre of the universe here at $3.20. Plagiarism sets a genuine tempo too, but at the current price, the smarter play is using the place value and then letting the race unfold. Revengeance is your danger if the run turns into a punch-up.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Chuchichaschtli (No.11) — $3.60 / $1.57 🏆 WINNER
Bet $13.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$33.80
Prob 23.6% | Place: 61.4% | Value: 0.93x
Why Front-half style, clean map role, and the price still gives him every chance to kick on.
2. Plagiarism (No.2) — $6.80 / $2.05 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.43x
Why A real chance — but at $2.05 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Revengeance (No.1) — $5.20 / $1.72 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.03x
Why He can run a huge race off his rhythm, but the ticket wants the more reliable win angle.
Roughie: Omolong (No.4) — $12.50 / $2.55 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.8% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.92x
Why If the leaders get cooked and he gets the right lane, he can sneak into the finish, that's all.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, leaders Paradoxium and Blessed Eagle, Satono Glow is map-disadvantaged but the finish power looks massive
Punty read: This is a straight-up speed-lives race, but it's not "lead and pray." Satono Glow has shown he can bring his best into the straight, and at this price he's the one I'm most comfortable backing on the day. Paradoxium is the obvious danger, Blessed Eagle is the wildcard for exacta stuff, and Steel Will is there if the pace is doing too much.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Satono Glow (No.14) — $2.78 / $1.30 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$15.60
Prob 34.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.07x
Why The sprint map and the straight-run advantage, plus the price is still playable even if the tempo is savage.
2. Paradoxium (No.1) — $2.50 / $1.20 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 32.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.91x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Blessed Eagle (No.5) — $12.00 / $2.75 🏆 9TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.03x
Why That's the value curve, but this is a "place if it drops" play, not the main win bet.
Roughie: Steel Will (No.7) — $11.00 / $2.75 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.7% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.20x
Why Needs the pace to melt slightly, then he's in the right spot to grab a slice late.
Race type: Open, 1900m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace, pace advantaged Lindermann, attrition helpers Militarize and Portland, etc.
Punty read: 1900m at Rosehill is where you either get a genuine staying slugfest or you get a controlled ride and a quick kick. Lindermann has the tempo setup to keep finding air, and Militarize's value is real if the race drifts into a sprint-to-the-finish situation. Attrition and Eliyass are the ones that can run on, but the map plus the price and the stable intent makes Lindermann the anchor.
Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Lindermann (No.1) — $1.96 / $1.08 🏆 2ND
Bet $7.50 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$7.50
Prob 42.0% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.92x
Why Slow tempo means less chaos early, and he's built to pick up the race when others start spinning.
2. Militarize (No.4) — $6.00 / $1.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 25.5% | Place: 60.8% | Value: 1.48x
Why A real chance — but at $1.75 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Attrition (No.3) — $9.80 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 46.9% | Value: 1.27x
Why He can run a place, but I'm not prioritising him as the main threat when the map already favours the front.
Roughie: Eliyass (No.2) — $9.60 / $2.10 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.15x
Why Needs a real running gap in the last 400m, then it turns from "roughie" to "how did that happen?"
Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace, many runners advantaged with speed, Linebacker and Osipenko etc. on different map roles
Punty read: This race is the one where you want to back the runners that can hold their position while the tempo is cooking. Headley Grange and Sepals both look like they belong in the speed conversations, and Gringotts is the one that can float in the pocket and still finish. The danger is getting cute with a horse that needs luck, because at 1400m on a rail day, luck is expensive.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Headley Grange (No.2) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 20.2% | Place: 48.9% | Value: 1.26x
Why He maps to do the right thing early and keeps kicking, ideal profile for a hot 1400m.
2. Sepals (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.6% | Place: 52.4% | Value: 1.07x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Gringotts (No.1) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.95x
Why A sneaky all-rounder, but the money is on the two that look most likely to hit the finish full-strength.
Roughie: General Salute (No.4) — $10.50 / $2.75 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.11x
Why He's there for the chaos if the leaders start wobbling and he gets an opening.
Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Super Smink and others provide pace, Arabian Rose and Miss Freelove are map-disadvantaged
Punty read: Gerringong is the one with the best combination of pace scenario and finishing profile, and at $4.30 he's not silly. She's An Artist and Sylph are your value place looks, they can sit in the right part of the track and then sprint hard when the straight arrives. The backmarker types need everything to go perfectly, and with a genuine tempo at 1200m, that's a big ask.
Top 3 + Roughie ($14.50 pool)
1. Gerringong (No.8) — $5.50 / $2.15 🏆 WINNER
Bet $14.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$65.25
Prob 19.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.19x
Why Gets a race-shape advantage, and his finish profile fits the 1200m straight run.
2. She's An Artist (No.12) — $4.90 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.97x
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Sylph (No.18) — $6.80 / $2.25 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.90x
Why Place chance is decent, but I'd rather stick with the more reliable win anchor.
Roughie: Nepo Baby (No.11) — $12.50 / $3.50 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.11x
Why Needs the leaders to kick up and then fade slightly, then she can swoop into the frame.
Race type: Benchmark 78, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace, Mercy Me and Ellipsis are early, Fierce is midfield, Lulumon and others are map-disadvantaged
Punty read: This is a tight 1100m where who gets the run matters as much as who's best. Fierce looks like the value win angle, and Mercy Me is the obvious danger with the leader style and the class. Ellipsis is the one that can sit handy and pounce, and in wet-leaning conditions late, those 'timing in the straight' horses usually get paid.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Fierce (No.9) — $2.72 / $1.37 🏆 WINNER
Bet $10.50 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.06
Prob 26.8% | Place: 62.8% | Value: 0.83x
Why Midfield map with the right turn of foot, and the price still gives a win shot.
2. Mercy Me (No.10) — $5.10 / $1.85 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.6% | Place: 59.1% | Value: 1.26x
Why A real chance — but at $1.85 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Ellipsis (No.13) — $6.50 / $2.35 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.9% | Place: 53.7% | Value: 1.55x
Why Strong place credentials, but not enough to take away Fierce's win spot.
Roughie: Oakfield Jupiter (No.5) — $15.50 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.95x
Why If there's any speed collapse, he can creep into the finish, otherwise he's just chasing the dream.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 9,4,11,12 / 1,11,5,6 / 11,2,1,4 / 14,1,7,5 (256 combos x $0.14 = $35.00) -- 14% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 1,4,3,2 / 5,2,1,4 / 8,12,18,11 / 9,10,13,5 (256 combos x $0.20 = $50.00) -- 20% flexi
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 11,2,1,4 / 14,1,7,5 / 1,4,3,2 / 5,2,1,4 / 8,12,18,11 / 9,10,13,5 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Felix Majestic (Race 1, No.1)✗ — $3.95
2 - Satono Glow (Race 6, No.14)✓ Won — $2.80
3 - Lindermann (Race 7, No.1)✗ — $1.88
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Rosehill on a Good 4 with the sky doing that "maybe, maybe not" thing, so the track could switch the lights on late. A rail +2m Entire means the inside's got a bit of love, but with a light tailwind up the straight you still get those blokes closing from the back, like a sequel no one asked for but everyone watches anyway.
Today's meeting has a proper spine, and I'm sticking to it. Three races feel like they've got one horse walking its own path, and the rest is about protecting yourself from the usual Rosehill chaos, the wide runs, the held-up seconds, and the one breakout that stuns everyone watching from the hill.
Also, 36 scratchings in a 10-race card? That's enough to make even the most confident punter start whispering "please don't go wrong" to the TAB app like it's a mate.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Rosehill, 10-10-2026 distance range 1000m-2000m
Rail: +2m Entire
Official going: Good 4 (expected to play Speed then Finish, with some late pressure off the straight wind)
Weather: Mostly sunny, 17°C, humidity 90%, light wind, 0.8mm rain since 9am, watch for the "rain risk 75%+ at 05:00" scenario
Early lane guess: Midfield to on-pace bias early, then keep an eye on the closers in the later stages
Tempo profile: Moderate to Genuine pace across the program, with the 1900m and 1800m races trending more attrition than sprint
Jockeys to follow:
Tommy Berry: silky timing and strong hands when it matters
Kerrin Mc Evoy: gets them home, especially when the map sets up
Chad Schofield: fearless from awkward positions, loves a straight run finish
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (12 runners): dangerous when the pace shapes up
C Maher (7 runners): mix of ready-to-fire types and late-gear threats
M, W & J Hawkes (6 runners): shows up when the market starts doing flips
Punty's take:
Race 1 is basically a "who's leading, who's floating" situation, Felix Majestic looks like he's got the map for it, and the price movement suggests the ring has clocked it too. Alabama State and Magical Moments are the two that can make it a proper fight, but the story here is simple, on a Good 4 with a +2m rail, the speed lane usually pays first.
Then Race 6, Satono Glow and Paradoxium is the kind of two-horse heat you dream about for place and each-way structures, because the pace will be hot and the straight run will do the rest. After that, the big staying races, Race 7 especially, are where you want to be confident in the front-running style and stop overthinking the random outsiders.
What it means for you is: pick the times to press, and pick the races to behave. The Big 3 spine is set, then you sprinkle a roughie when the race shape screams "if the pace breaks, he's there." Don't force it in every race, that's how you end up eating stake like it's complimentary snacks at the pub.
What it means for you:
My aggression is concentrated early with Race 1 Felix Majestic and Race 6 Satono Glow, because both have the best combination of map fit and clean run type. Once you've landed the spine, the rest of the card becomes damage control, meaning you bet the Top 3 types when they're placed right in the race story, and you go quiet when the odds don't line up with the way the race will unfold.
When you see a horse with a clear pace role at 1400m-2000m, at Rosehill it usually either wins or sets up the finishing run for the next two. So, in races like 3, 4, 7, and 9, I'm treating "who settles where" like it's the main event. If it's a leader, respect the leader. If it's a midpack runner, respect the run into the straight. If it's a backmarker, pray the pace melts and the field stretches like butter on a hot day.