For all of Punty's tips for Eagle Farm, head to https://punty.ai/tips/eagle-farm-2026-11-07

Rightio Ticket Munchers, Eagle Farm is a Soft 5 with the rail out 3m and a card that runs from 1000m sprints out to a 1815m staying test. Ten races, a moderate pace in most of them, and two slow-run afternoons where the backmarkers get their hopes up. Grab a coffee, load your bets early, and let's sort the wheat from the chaff.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Eagle Farm, 1000m to 1815m card
Rail: +3m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (nil rainfall last 24hrs, 2mm last 7 days)
Weather: Fine, live conditions show gusts 25.9km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Moderate pace in Races 1, 3 and 5 to 10, slow pace in Races 2 and 4. Nobody holds the front clean in most of these fields, so expect scrambles for the lead rather than easy sits.
Jockeys to follow:
Angela Jones: nine rides, including the Race 5 pick Southern Heiress and the Race 10 runner Night Market who has won her last two starts on the map.
Emily Lang: nine rides, with Twisted Queen in Race 8 carrying the stake and Thunderlips and La Roja both needing a good run from wide draws.
Taylor Marshall: eight rides, including Rochedale Hero in Race 2, Liberty Park in Race 4 and Street Chase in Race 9, so he's a name to keep your eye on across the card.
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (13 runners): Kokatahi and Maquisa both run in Race 3, and the stable has runners through Race 4 as well, so the depth is real.
Jack Bruce (11 runners): Rochedale Hero in Race 2, Yes Donald Yes in Race 3, Twisted Queen in Race 8 and Street Chase in Race 9 make this the stable to respect across the card.
T J Gollan (11 runners): Southern Heiress and He's Tru Blue both run in Race 5, and Hot Majesty runs in Race 2, so this barn has a lot of runners on the board.

Punty's take: Where the speed sits is the first thing to get your head around. Race 1 has no clean lead on the map, so Petite Palace from barrier 1 and Super Quick from barrier 2 are the ones likeliest to find the front, while Sort Cha Mess is sitting handy from a wide barrier 10. Race 2 and Race 4 are the slow-run races, and they both hand the backmarkers a chance, which is why I've kept the closers on my radar there. Race 3 is the one that'll make people sweat. There's no lead on the map, a handful of handy runners in the field, and the shape is working against my top pick. Race 5 and Race 6 are the banker-ish races where the favourites have the sectional horsepower, but that doesn't mean they come in at a price worth paying. Race 7 and Race 8 are open and messy, and Race 9 has two proper leaders in Mishani Crown and Zoufani to make it a fight at the front. Race 10 is the one where the wide draw of Zip Lock is the story, and whether he can get across from barrier 13 decides a lot of the afternoon.

What it means for you: Be aggressive where the price is fair and the shape is on your side. Southern Heiress in Race 5 and Just Precious in Race 6 are short-priced, so keep those stakes modest and let the sequence tickets do the heavy lifting. Race 4 is where I'd protect the bank a bit more: Cunnamulla Fella is the solid play but the slow pace is working against him, so don't go overboard on the stake. Race 2 and Race 3 are the value zones, with Rochedale Hero and Kokatahi both sitting at prices that reward the form. The sequences are built to win on the bigger horses, but don't expect them to pay a fortune unless one of the bigger priced runners gets up somewhere along the way.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Cunnamulla Fella (Race 4, No.3) — $2.90
Why The class record is strong for this grade, he's been third and first in his last two starts at Eagle Farm over 1600m, and the market has him as the most likely winner of the lot.
2 - Sort Cha Mess (Race 1, No.6) — $4.40
Why He won at Toowoomba last start, his Moree win shows he can get out in front of a field, and Ashley Butler is running at 20.1% at this track.
3 - Southern Heiress (Race 5, No.14) — $2.60
Why Her sectionals are the best on the card in the Race 5 field, she was second at Doomben over 1200m two starts back, and the shape helps her from barrier 1.

Multi: $10 × 33.18 = $331.80

Race 1 – Sky Racing "The Bruce"

Race type: Benchmark 70, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace on paper, but nobody maps to lead, so the fight for the front is wide open. Petite Palace from barrier 1 and Super Quick from barrier 2 are the most likely to take it up, and Sort Cha Mess (barrier 10) has to work across from a wide draw to sit handy. The shape favours the handy runners and the back-half closers, and American Conquest from the back needs the early speed to hold up to make his run count.
Punty read: Sort Cha Mess is the bet here and it's the one I'd put the most on in this race. He's on the speed, he's the one the shape suits best, and Ashley Butler is running at 20.1% at Eagle Farm. The danger is Vintage Vibes, who has won his last start at Doomben over 1200m and sits handy from barrier 7 with the same kind of run. Petite Palace is the one to watch if the pace stays soft and she's off the front, and American Conquest is the price-friendly closer if the speed tires.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Sort Cha Mess (No.6) — $4.40 / $1.65
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $45.38 if it wins ($33.00 win + $12.38 place), $12.38 if it only places
Prob 25.5% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.12x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy in a race where the shape helps him, he's won at Toowoomba last start, and Pat W Webster's runners are firing at 26% over their last 100.
2. Vintage Vibes (No.3) — $2.24 / $1.17
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.54x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Petite Palace (No.1) — $6.40 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why She's proven on soft at 2 wins from 7, and if the front runners go hard she's the one who could take the lead, but the shape is against her.

Roughie: American Conquest (No.5) — $16.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.22x Steady since tip
Why He's a backmarker in a race that helps closers, he won at Toowoomba last start, and if the speed up front gets tired he's the one who can swoop from the back.

Race 2 – Kiwa Construction Sciences Plate

Race type: Class 3, 1815m
Map & tempo: Slow pace and nobody maps to lead or sit handy, so the early fight is for the best position on the rail and the back half will be looking for cover. The shape suits the closers, and Rochedale Hero from barrier 7 has to work to get a clean run. Hot Majesty and Peccavi sit midfield, which keeps them in the game without needing a rush.
Punty read: Rochedale Hero is the bet and I like him, but he's a midfield runner in a slow race that helps the closers, so he has to find his own path. He's won his share on soft, his sectionals show a fast closing burst, and Jack Bruce's runners are firing at 28% over their last 100 at the track. Hot Majesty won at Ipswich last start and is the one to chase if the field stays tight, while Peccavi won at Eagle Farm last start and is the value of the three at a $5.70 tag.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Rochedale Hero (No.6) — $4.40 / $1.65
Bet $7.50 Win, return $33.00
Prob 21.1% | Place: 54.0% | Value: 0.93x Steady since tip
Why He can close with a sharp finish off a slow pace, his L400 is the fastest on the card, and the market trusts him at $4.40.
2. Hot Majesty (No.4) — $5.70 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Peccavi (No.9) — $5.70 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why He won at Eagle Farm last start over 1830m, and the stable of C J Waller runs well at this track. He's also 2kg up, so keep an eye on that.

Roughie: He'sgotthesay (No.3) — $12.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 45.4% | Value: 1.48x Steady since tip
Why He's a backmarker in a slow race that suits the back half, he's wearing winkers again, and from barrier 3 he has a clean trip if the field gets bunched.

Race 3 – Pearson Automotive Hcp

Race type: Restricted 65, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, and nobody maps to lead, so the early fight sorts itself out from the wide barriers. The shape favours the handy runners, including Michifuku, Suze Spritz, Tam Na Ghar and Shape Of Water, and the forward runners on the outside have to work to cross. Kokatahi sits midfield from barrier 4, so he's fighting a shape that doesn't suit him, but the rest of the field is evenly matched enough to keep him in the mix.
Punty read: Kokatahi is the bet, and I'm backing him because he's the most consistent horse in the race. He's been second in each of his last two starts, has a 1-4-2 record from 12, and Ryan Maloney is running at 18.2% at the track. The shape is against him, which means he has to win the race on class and rhythm, not on the pace. Yes Donald Yes is the one with good form and a place price that won't pay much, and Maquisa has been second and third in his last two runs, so he's the one from the back who can get the job done.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Kokatahi (No.3) — $3.70 / $1.65
Bet $10.50 Win, return $38.85
Prob 22.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why Second at Doomben over 1350m last start and second at Eagle Farm over 1200m before that, so he's knocking on the door. Kokatahi has the most solid form in the race even with the shape against him.
2. Yes Donald Yes (No.5) — $4.40 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.48x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Maquisa (No.15) — $7.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why He's been second at Doomben and third at Eagle Farm in his last two starts, and the shape helps back runners, so he's the closer with the best chance to run through the field.

Roughie: Pearls In June (No.10) — $12.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.12x Steady since tip
Why He won at Gold Coast over 1400m last start, and if the pace collapses on the front end his closing run from barrier 17 could carry him into the placings.

Race 4 – Elgin Valley Farms Qlder Hcp

Race type: Open, 1815m
Map & tempo: Slow pace again and nobody maps to lead or sit handy, so the backmarkers have the best chance here. Demon Darb is the one the shape helps most, and Cunnamulla Fella from barrier 3 is midfield in a race that suits the closers, so he has to get himself into a good spot. Liberty Park and Jenni Moreese are both fighting for the same trip, and the back half has the most scope to run through the field.
Punty read: Cunnamulla Fella is the bet here, and I'll say this clearly: the shape is working against him in a slow-run race. But his class record is strong, he's a horse who's proven on soft, and his last start at Eagle Farm was a third over 1600m, which tells me he's sharp enough to make it count. Liberty Park is the form horse who has run well at Eagle Farm and Doomben over 1600m, and Jenni Moreese is the closer with heavy support who can run down a slow pace.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Cunnamulla Fella (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.45
Bet $15.00 Win, return $48.00
Prob 26.6% | Place: 63.3% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why He's 7 wins from 34 starts, 4 wins from 14 on soft and 2 wins from 7 in class, and he was third at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start. The slow pace is a problem, but the class edge is real.
2. Liberty Park (No.9) — $6.40 / $2.05
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.05 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Jenni Moreese (No.4) — $5.20 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why The market has backed her from $8.00 to $5.20, Gary Geran is running hot at 16% over his last 100 rides, and she's a closer who could run down a slow pace from the back.

Roughie: Demon Darb (No.7) — $9.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why The slow pace helps him, he's a midfield horse with class on the card, and if the leaders stop for a breather he can run into the placings from barrier 1.

Race 5 – GJ Gardner Homes

Race type: Benchmark 78, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace and nobody maps to lead cleanly. Hell To Pay from barrier 8 and Pocketmoney from barrier 9 both have to work across the field, while Biancelli from barrier 5 is the most likely to find the front. The shape helps Southern Heiress, who sits midfield from barrier 1 and can drop into a sweet spot behind the leaders.
Punty read: Southern Heiress is the bet and she's the favourite, but the market has her at $2.60 so the price is short. The case for her is the sectionals: her L600 and time are the fastest in the field, she's run well on the Doomben 1200m track, and Angela Jones is a jockey on the rise at 15% over her last 100. Biancelli is the one to beat if the speed up front is tired, and He's Tru Blue has the best closing sectionals of the field's back half.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Southern Heiress (No.14) — $2.60 / $1.30
Bet $10.50 Win, return $27.30
Prob 24.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why Her sectionals are the best in the race and she's been second at Doomben over 1200m, so she's a strong favourite. She is yet to win on soft over 1300m, but she won at 3 from 3 on soft at this track.
2. Biancelli (No.4) — $4.20 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.3% | Place: 53.6% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. He's Tru Blue (No.13) — $4.80 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why He's 4kg down from his last start and his sectionals show a fast closing burst, and blinkers go on for the first time, so he's worth watching.

Roughie: Highgrove Rose (No.15) — $13.00 / $3.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.16x Steady since tip
Why The market is giving him a big price for a horse with a solid strike rate at the track, and if the favourites are caught out in the pace he has the class to hit the frame.

Race 6 – Austbrokers Comsure Hcp

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with three forward runners on the map for the lead: Space Tracker from barrier 1, Thunderlips from barrier 7, and Exotique Miss from barrier 8. The shape favours the handy group, and Just Precious sits midfield from barrier 9 with a clear run if the leaders go hard.
Punty read: Just Precious is the bet, and I'm backing a horse who has won three in a row. Doomben 1350m, Eagle Farm 1200m and Doomben 1110m are all wins, she's 4kg lighter than her last start, and the sectionals show the fastest time in the field. Esjay is the one to chase with the best place chance, while Pocket Full is the one from the middle who can find the frame.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Just Precious (No.9) — $2.60 / $1.25
Bet $12.00 Win, return $31.20
Prob 24.5% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why Three straight wins including Doomben over 1350m last start, the fastest time in the field, and a 4kg drop in weight. She's short but the form is hard to argue with.
2. Esjay (No.3) — $5.70 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.21x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Pocket Full (No.10) — $6.40 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.93x Steady since tip
Why His soft record is 2 wins and 3 seconds from 12 starts, and Taylor Marshall has a good share of the rides. He's the one from the middle who can run into the frame.

Roughie: Captain Furai (No.4) — $9.00 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why His sectionals are the fastest in the field, he's dropped 3kg for this start, and if the front runners fade he has the class to run late from barrier 10.

Race 7 – Stand With Jai

Race type: Benchmark 78, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with a lot of early speed: King Of Pop from barrier 1, Overfull from barrier 2, Royal Commodore from barrier 13 and Military Tycoon from barrier 9 all look like they want to be handy. The shape favours the handy runners, and Incognito from barrier 3 sits midfield in a race that helps him.
Punty read: Incognito is the bet and I'm backing him in the each-way. His sectionals are fastest in the field across the board, he's run 1 win from 8 with his best form at distance, and Daniel Moor is in the saddle. He's yet to win on soft, which is the only thing I'd flag. Benzou is the one to watch, a closer who won at Deagon last start, and Military Tycoon is the on-pace runner who can slow the race down. The shape is against Benzou, so he needs the leaders to tire.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Incognito (No.4) — $4.50 / $1.80
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $47.25 if it wins ($33.75 win + $13.50 place), $13.50 if it only places
Prob 18.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why His sectionals are the fastest in the race and the shape suits him from midfield. He has 1 win from 3 at this distance and is yet to win on soft, so the each-way is the sensible play.
2. Benzou (No.15) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Military Tycoon (No.9) — $3.55 / $1.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.51x Steady since tip
Why He won at Gold Coast Poly over 1050m last start and the shape suits on-pace runners, so he's the one who can get the early speed and hold on.

Roughie: Oohlalouvre (No.10) — $9.20 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.92x Steady since tip
Why He won at Sunshine Coast over 1000m last start and the one before, and the market has drifted from $6.00 to $9.20, so the price is generous if the sprint suits him.

Race 8 – Chris Ward Classic

Race type: Benchmark 78, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, and nobody maps to lead cleanly. Perfect Play from barrier 11 and New Joy from barrier 12 both have to work across from wide draws, while Princeofnottingham from barrier 6 and Sir Winnie from barrier 9 are the handy runners in the mix. Twisted Queen sits back from barrier 10, and the shape doesn't suit her in a moderate race.
Punty read: Twisted Queen is the bet and she's the market's second favourite, but the shape is working against her. The case is her form: she won at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start and was second at Doomben over 1600m, she's 3 wins from 8 on soft, and Emily Lang has a good share of her rides. Easy Love is the one to beat in this field, while Sir Winnie is the closer on-pace who can run through the field with blinkers on for the first time.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Twisted Queen (No.13) — $3.70 / $1.60
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P), collects $27.83 if it wins ($19.43 win + $8.40 place), $8.40 if it only places
Prob 18.7% | Place: 51.1% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why She won at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start and has three wins from eight on soft. She's a backmarker in a race where the shape isn't in her favour, so the each-way is the cover.
2. Easy Love (No.9) — $3.50 / $1.57
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.6% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 0.65x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Sir Winnie (No.11) — $7.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.16x Steady since tip
Why He's on the speed from barrier 9, his sectional time ranks second in the field, and the blinkers go on for the first time, which could sharpen him up.

Roughie: The Dramatist (No.8) — $10.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.98x Steady since tip
Why He's won at Eagle Farm over 1500m and Sunshine Coast over 1400m in consecutive starts, and if the front runners fade in a moderate race he can run down the leaders.

Race 9 – RTE Custom Trucks

Race type: Benchmark 85, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with two leaders on the map: Mishani Crown from barrier 3 and Zoufani from barrier 11. The shape favours the forward runners, and Street Chase from barrier 8 sits handy in a spot where the leaders have to make the running. La Roja from barrier 9 is the other forward runner who has to work across.
Punty read: Street Chase is the bet and I like him because the shape suits his style, the market has him firming from $7.50 to $7.40, and Taylor Marshall has a good strike rate at the track. He won at Doomben over 840m, was third at Doomben over 1200m, and was held up by a wide run last start, so he's due a clean trip. La Roja is the one to watch with the blinkers off for the first time, and Grammar Lad is the midfield closer who can get into the frame.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Street Chase (No.3) — $7.40 / $2.40
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P), collects $36.75 if it wins ($27.75 win + $9.00 place), $9.00 if it only places
Prob 15.4% | Place: 34.2% | Value: 1.14x Steady since tip
Why The shape suits him from handy, he won at Doomben over 840m, and he was third at Doomben over 1200m before last start. He ran wide last start, so he's due a better trip.
2. La Roja (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Grammar Lad (No.9) — $7.40 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why He's 4 wins from 14, his sectionals are the fastest in the field over the last 600m, and the market has come in from $8.50 to $7.40.

Roughie: Berezka (No.10) — $9.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 33.4% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why She's a midfield closer with the fastest closing sectionals in the field over the last 400m, and if the leaders go hard into the turn she can run past them.

Race 10 – Higgins Coatings Hcp

Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace, with Zip Lock from barrier 13 the one on the speed who has to work across the field. Night Market from barrier 1 is the other handy runner who can take the lead, and Punishment Day from barrier 11 and Savage Sequel from barrier 8 both want the early pace. The shape favours the forward runners, and Elevating sits midfield from barrier 6 in a race that suits the handy group.
Punty read: Zip Lock is the bet and he's the most likely winner on the card at a $4.70 price. He's 2 wins from 3 and both were at 1200m or shorter, he won at Doomben over 1000m last start and was third at Doomben over 840m, and his sectionals show fast closing times. Night Market is the one who could take the lead from barrier 1, while Elevating is the closer from the middle who can find the frame.

Top 3 + Roughie ($5.50 pool)

1. Zip Lock (No.2) — $4.80 / $1.90
Bet $5.50 Win, return $26.40
Prob 22.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.08x Steady since tip
Why Two wins from three starts, both at 1200m or shorter, and his sectionals are the second-fastest in the race. He's drawn wide from barrier 13, but the shape helps handy runners and Chris and Corey Munce are running hot.
2. Night Market (No.8) — $7.40 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.0% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.40 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Elevating (No.6) — $6.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why He was second at Eagle Farm over 1200m last start and second at Gold Coast over 1000m before that, but the market has drifted from $4.50 to $5.50.

Roughie: Cool Gent (No.3) — $13.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why He's 2 wins from 4 at 56-57kg, his sectionals are the fastest in the field, and if the leaders stop running he can come with a late rush from barrier 12.

Race 10 sequences built above.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R3–R6)

Smart: 3,15,5,10 / 3,4,9,7 / 14,4 / 9,3,10 (96 combos x $0.3646 = $35.00) -- 36.5% flexi
Punty's take: Race 3 is the wide leg with four runners, and Races 4 and 5 are tight three-horse legs built around the strongest form. Race 6 is open enough to make this ticket work, and the 30% flexi floor gives you a solid play rather than a lottery.

QUADDIE (R7–R10)

Smart: 15,4,9,10 / 9,13,11,8 / 9,5,3,10 / 2,8,6,3 (256 combos x $0.3125 = $80.00) -- 31.2% flexi
Punty's take: All four legs are open races, so this is a wide ticket with the most risk. The 30% flexi floor covers it, but a short-priced winner in any leg will do little for the return, so this is about hitting a $5 to $10 winner somewhere in the four races.

BIG 6 (R5–R10)

Smart: 14,4,13,15 / 9,3,10,4 / 15,4,9,10 / 9,13,11,8 / 9,5,3,10 / 2,8,6,3 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
Punty's take: Six open legs and 4096 combos at $5 is an entertainment-only ticket, and I'll be honest about it. The 0.10% floor is met, but the chance of hitting the whole thing is tiny, so bet it for the fun and leave the real money on the singles and the Big 3.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Winkers go on, and the market hasn't moved
Biancelli goes into winkers for the first time in Race 5, and the market has barely moved on him, so there's a chance his focus improves without the crowd knowing.
2 - Heavy money on Jenni Moreese
The market has backed Jenni Moreese from $8.00 to $5.20, and Gary Geran is running hot at 16% over his last 100 rides. Something's been noticed in that market.
3 - Michifuku's drift is the walk of shame
Michifuku has drifted from $51.00 to $81.00 and nobody's come to his rescue. That's a long walk back to the paddock for a horse that could still find a placing, and it's the type of price that makes a roughie hunter lick his lips.

THE RATBAG REPORT

Fellas, the card is long and the weather is kind, so keep your bets sensible and your mates honest. Let the sequences be the bonus, not the bank, and if one of the roughies comes home, don't go chasing it all afternoon.