For all of Punty's tips for Hawkesbury, head to https://punty.ai/tips/hawkesbury-2026-11-07

Rightio Sickos, Hawkesbury is sitting on a Soft 5 with 13.5mm in the last week, so every bit of ground is going to be wet and nasty. Eight races, 92 runners, and the first half of the card is a slow-motion maiden fest where nobody wants to lead. My mate in the form guide reckons the favourites will be hard to knock, but the drifters in the back half are where the bodies are buried. Grab a coffee, pull up a stool, and let's get into it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Hawkesbury, 1100m to 2000m card
Rail: True
Official going: Soft 5 (1mm last 24hrs, 13.5mm last 7 days)
Weather: Fine, live gusts 9.3km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Slow in Races 1 to 3, Genuine in Race 4, Moderate in Races 5, 6 and 8, and Hot in Race 7.
Jockeys to follow:
Keagan Latham: Eight rides on the card, including Serpico in Race 5, who is our staked pick for that race.
L P Beuzelin: Five rides, and two of them are the big guns, Sur Nova Centauri in Race 1 and Koibito in Race 2.
Rory Hutchings: Three rides, with Dwight in Race 4 the one that matters most to my card.
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (7): Seven runners across the card, spread through Races 1, 2, 3 and 7, so they're everywhere on this card.
G Waterhouse & A Bott (3): Sur Nova Centauri and Koibito both carry their colours, and both are staked in my Big 3.
Annabel & Rob Archibald (5): Five runners, with Cristal Clear, Depth Of Character and Mighty Ulysses all in Race 7 alone.

Punty's take: Hawkesbury is a slow-cooker today, mate. Race 1, Race 2 and Race 3 are all Slow Pace on the map, and in Race 1 and Race 2 nobody maps to lead outright, so the first two in the gate will decide who gets the fight. Race 4 is the only real Genuine Pace race in the first half, with Dwight the one horse that maps to lead uncontested from barrier 1. That's the race where a leader can really run away with it, and I'm not ignoring that. Race 7 is the chaos merchant of the day with three horses fighting for the front in a Hot Pace, which hands the closers a ticket to the party. The Open is a big field of quality runners, and that's where the thinking needs to go.

Race 2 and Race 3 are where I'm happy to lean on the favourites. Koibito is a horse that sits handy and has yet to be beaten by much in its form. Rocks Or Diamonds is a settle-back type that gets the shape it wants. Race 1 is the trickier one because my top pick, Sur Nova Centauri, is a sit-handy runner in a race that's built for something sitting deeper. I still like him and I'll explain why below. Race 5 and Race 8 have the mugs' weights but also a few horses who look built for the way the pace will play out.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on the win bets in Race 2 and Race 3 where the favourites have clean runs and the shape doesn't fight them. Protect yourself in Race 1 and Race 4, because the shape is against Sur Nova Centauri and Dwight on the numbers, and if the slow tempo lets the back half run down the leaders, the placings get messy. Race 5 is a value race where Serpico gets the shape he wants from a back-half draw. Race 7 and Race 8 are for the bigger punters who can wait for the market to settle before getting stuck in. The bankers are Koibito and Rocks Or Diamonds, and the chaos is Race 4 and Race 7.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Koibito (Race 2, No.2) — $2.55
Why Sits handy from barrier 4 in a Slow Pace race where nothing else wants the front, and his 0-3-0 record at this class says he's always hanging around the finish.

2 - Rocks Or Diamonds (Race 3, No.8) — $2.85
Why Settles back from barrier 8, and the shape in this Slow Pace 1800m race is built for a horse who likes to sit at the back and run down the field.

3 - Sur Nova Centauri (Race 1, No.3) — $2.50
Why Yes the shape is against him, but he's the best-credentialed horse in a maiden that doesn't have many, and the market has been firming from $2.80 into $2.50.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × 18.17 = $181.70

Race 1 – Richmond Club Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace on paper, and nobody maps to lead outright. Sur Nova Centauri from barrier 1 and Arruza from barrier 2 are the likeliest to find the front, so it's a fight for a soft lead rather than a sprint. Sur Nova Centauri sits handy, and the shape is against him, with his map factor sitting at 0.93. All Over Harry and Stellar Cipher are the ones who get hurt most by the slow tempo, and Pieripper from barrier 8 needs the race to break his way.
Punty read: Sur Nova Centauri is the bet, $13.00 win. He sits handy from barrier 1, and while the slow tempo doesn't suit him on paper, a horse with a 1-2 finish record at this trip with a fast finish has every chance of holding on. He's yet to win on soft from two starts, but he's placed in both, and the gear change with the Hanoverian nose band and lugging bit both coming off for the first time is a sign his trainer wants him running better. Market firming from $2.80 to $2.50 backs that up. All Over Harry is the danger, with his jockey Keagan Latham and a strong recent record on soft, but he's a backmarker in a slow race, which is the wrong shape for him to get home.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Sur Nova Centauri (No.3) — $2.50 / $1.25
Bet $13.00 Win, return $32.50
Prob 27.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 1 and the jockey-trainer combo has been strong here. The shape is against him, but the market is backing him in, and I'm not running from a horse getting cash.

2. All Over Harry (No.4) — $4.20 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.9% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 1.05x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.62 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Stellar Cipher (No.9) — $5.50 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 45.1% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why The sectional times say he's the fastest finisher on the card, but he's a backmarker and his last start at Hawkesbury had bumping and interference on the form.

Roughie: Pieripper (No.8) — $20.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why If the speed fights up front and collapses, a backmarker from barrier 8 with Jean Van Overmeire on board can swoop late. He's got a last start with interference on the form and that can be forgiven.

Race 2 – Fowler Civil Contracting Pty Ltd Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace again. Koibito from barrier 4 and Llantarnam from barrier 9 are the likeliest to find the front, which means the race is about who takes the lead without getting into a scrap. The back half is wide, with Legsliketwiggy, Michonne's Katana, Moordyup and Wave Blaster all needing cover or a bit of luck from the outside draws. Billapaloola and Wild Yarn get hurt most by the slow tempo.
Punty read: Koibito is the bet, $13.00 win. He sits handy from barrier 4 in a race where the pace is slow and nobody wants to take the early lead. He's been placed in each of his last few starts, and his strike rate at this class is three seconds from four starts. The shape is neutral for him, and nothing else in the field looks like running him down from the back. Palm Tree is the danger, with a midfield map and the blinkers going on for the first time, but I'm not backing him at $3.20. Explosive Express is the value runner at the bottom of the market, but she has to find a way through from the back.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Koibito (No.2) — $2.55 / $1.35
Bet $13.00 Win, return $33.15
Prob 34.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 4 with a clean run in a race where nobody else wants the front. Three seconds from four starts at this class says he's always in the finish.

2. Palm Tree (No.12) — $3.20 / $1.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.7% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.55 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Explosive Express (No.11) — $11.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 3 with Rory Hutchings. Her last start at Warwick Farm had her raced wide and bumped, so there's a bounce-back argument if the race lets her get across.

Roughie: Ballerdena (No.8) — $12.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.1% | Place: 28.1% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why No form at all on the record, which makes it a pure gear and trainer bet. Barrier blanket, cross-over nose band and ear muffs all go on for the first time, and Michael Freedman's stable has the trainer and jockey combo right. If the race stays slow and the first few run out of it, she has a shot.

Race 3 – Blakes Marine Super Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, and nobody maps to lead or sit handy. Rocks Or Diamonds from barrier 8 is the settle-back horse this race is built around, and the shape helps him at map factor 1.07. Almaaz from barrier 9 and Andelise from barrier 7 are the back-half runners who need cover, and What She's Having and Chief Wild Eagle are hurt the most by the slow tempo.
Punty read: Rocks Or Diamonds is the bet, $13.00 win. He settles back from barrier 8 in a slow race, and the shape is built for him. He's had two solid runs in his last three starts, including a 3rd at Kembla Grange, and the market has him at $2.85 with plenty of support. Dance With Destiny is the danger from barrier 1, who has the form and the placings but is a backmarker who needs the race to run for him. Moon Flash is the one with a midfield map, but he's a $4.00 chance in a race that suits the closers.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Rocks Or Diamonds (No.8) — $2.90 / $1.25
Bet $13.00 Win, return $37.70
Prob 30.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why Settles back from barrier 8 in a race where the slow tempo helps the closers. A 3rd at Kembla Grange sits in his form, and Louise Day has the ride.

2. Dance With Destiny (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.35 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Moon Flash (No.5) — $4.00 / $1.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.60x Steady since tip
Why Runs on the closing tempo and has finished 2nd last start at Kembla Grange. The slow pace leaves him in the mix.

Roughie: What She's Having (No.6) — $10.00 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 30.3% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 5 with a 3rd at Hawkesbury 1800m last start. If the race is a slow sprint home, she can run into a placing.

Race 4 – Irresistible Pools And Spas Provincial Mdn Hcp

Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Dwight the only horse that maps to lead, and he does so uncontested from barrier 1. Tickelova from barrier 11 and Cold Gin from barrier 10 are drawn wide and need to work across to get into the race. Dirty Dani and Artfull are the ones who get the shape they want, and Hallowedismyname and Southport are hurt most by the genuine tempo.
Punty read: Dwight is the bet, $9.00 each way. He's the only real leader on the card and he goes from barrier 1 with nobody in his path. The shape is against him on the numbers, with the genuine tempo and two forward runners behind him, but he's won and placed on soft, with three seconds and a third from six starts on the surface. Sauvitude and Tickelova are the danger, with Sauvitude's sectional times fastest in the race and Tickelova a forward runner with the trainer strike rate firmly in the right direction. Artfull has the cross-over nose band on for the first time and is a bit of a roughie at $13.00.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)

1. Dwight (No.5) — $4.60 / $1.82
Bet $9.00 Each Way ($4.50W + $4.50P), collects $28.89 if it wins ($20.70 win + $8.19 place), $8.19 if it only places
Prob 16.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why Leads uncontested from barrier 1 and has been placed in his last few starts. Three seconds and a third from six starts on soft says he's at home in the conditions. Rory Hutchings has the ride.

2. Sauvitude (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.

3. Tickelova (No.6) — $5.50 / $2.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 11 and has been placed at Newcastle last start with a 2nd. The interference at Scone is the excuse to forgive.

Roughie: Artfull (No.11) — $13.00 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.02x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy with the shape helping him at map factor 1.15, and the cross-over nose band goes on for the first time. A 5th at Hawkesbury last start is respectable, and if the leader sets a genuine tempo, he's the one that can run home.

Race 5 – Performance Access Resources Conditional (Bm68)

Race type: Benchmark 68, 2000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Valentiago from barrier 4, Danish Fortune from barrier 1 and Astrogazer from barrier 9 the likeliest to find the front. That's three horses who want the lead, and the closers get a chance to run down a tired field. Serpico from barrier 8 is the settle-back horse, and the shape helps him with a map factor of 1.07. Falcon Lair from barrier 11 needs cover.
Punty read: Serpico is the bet, $7.50 win. He settles back from barrier 8 in a moderate pace where the leaders are likely to go hard early. He's had his share of bad luck with a bump at Canterbury and held up at Gosford, and a 3rd at Wyong last start is the best recent run. Keagan Latham and David Payne have the combo on the board, and the market has him backed from $4.50 to $3.60. Falcon Lair and Valentiago are the danger at the top of the market, with Falcon Lair having raced wide last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Serpico (No.6) — $3.60 / $1.65
Bet $7.50 Win, return $27.00
Prob 23.0% | Place: 53.8% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why Shape favours him from barrier 8, and his recent excuses are all bumping and holding up, so he's due a clean run. Keagan Latham has a strong stat at this track.

2. Valentiago (No.4) — $4.40 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.75 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Falcon Lair (No.1) — $5.50 / $2.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 11 with a 2-1-6 record and 1-1-2 at 2000m class. Raced wide and bumped last start, so there's a bounce-back argument.

Roughie: Canny Queen (No.2) — $9.50 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 6 with a 4-1-0 record. She was bumped at Warwick Farm last start, and if the leaders go hard, she could run into the placings.

Race 6 – All Aspects Roofing Midway (Bm64)

Race type: Benchmark 64, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Rebel Rhapsody from barrier 6 and Kitty Okay from barrier 5 the two most likely to be on the speed. Ahellbenda from barrier 9 and Chilly Charlie from barrier 8 are the others up near the front. Zouboy sits midfield from barrier 7 with a neutral shape. Viipuri from barrier 4 is the closer and is hurt by the moderate tempo.
Punty read: Zouboy is the bet, $10.50 win. He sits midfield from barrier 7 and the shape is neutral for him, so the race doesn't cost him anything. He's won both of his career starts, one on soft, and the two-to-one market has backed him in. The form says he's 4kg up from last start and best at lighter weights, which is the one thing I'd watch. Kitty Okay is the danger on the speed, with her 8-2 record on soft.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Zouboy (No.2) — $2.70 / $1.35
Bet $10.50 Win, return $28.35
Prob 26.0% | Place: 57.1% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why Won both career starts and his 1-1 on soft is a good sign. Sits midfield from barrier 7 with the shape neutral, and William A Stanley has the ride.

2. Kitty Okay (No.3) — $7.00 / $2.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.1% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.92x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.45 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Viipuri (No.4) — $7.00 / $2.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.7% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 4 with a 3-0-1 record. Her last start was an 11th at Randwick, and the moderate tempo is against her.

Roughie: Chilly Charlie (No.7) — $10.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.15x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 8 and has been placed at Gosford and Beaumont recently. If the leaders run each other into the ground, he can run past them late.

Race 7 – Evergreen Turf Ladies Day Cup

Race type: Open, 1500m
Map & tempo: Hot pace on paper. Sandpaper from barrier 1, Major Beel from barrier 6 and Filthy Habits from barrier 12 all map to lead, so three horses will fight for the front and Filthy Habits has to work from the outside to get there. That hands the trail to the closers, and the shape suits Robusto, Cristal Clear and Major Beel.
Punty read: Market's not up for this one yet, so my tips land closer to the jump.

Race 8 – Airmakers (Bm64)

Race type: Benchmark 64, 1500m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Rolling Home from barrier 11, Awesome Artist from barrier 1, Cash Me from barrier 9 and More Mischief from barrier 4 the likeliest to find the front. More Mischief is the one who gets the shape he wants, and Wandjad and Maximum Ride are hurt most by the moderate tempo.
Punty read: Market's not up for this one yet, so my tips land closer to the jump.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Gear change to watch in Race 1
Sur Nova Centauri has both the Hanoverian nose band and the lugging bit coming off for the first time. Watch the market on him, because the firming from $2.80 to $2.50 is the only public signal I'd trust in that race.

2 - Blinkers going on first time in Race 2
Palm Tree has the blinkers going on for the first time, and he sits midfield from barrier 8. If the race is as slow as the map says, the blinkers might be the reason he runs better than his price.

3 - Sectional king in a no-bet race
Stellar Cipher is the fastest on the card for last 600 and last 400 sectionals in Race 1, and the time is the fastest too. He's a backmarker with a map to match, so he's the best sectional horse on a card that won't reward him unless the race goes fast.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

The mud is up, the pace is slow, and the favourites are shorter than a Bunnings sausage sizzle queue on a Saturday. Back your reads, respect the draw, and if the first two out of the gate look like they're going to fight, get your hands off the cash and let the race run itself.