For all of Punty's tips for Rosehill, head to https://punty.ai/tips/rosehill-2026-11-07

Rightio Degenerates, Rosehill is sitting on a Soft 5 after 42.8mm in the last seven days, the sky is fine, and the card is ten races of speed questions. Half the maps are Moderate or Genuine with nobody clearly mapped to lead, so the front end is a scramble. The money has been moving hard on a few short prices, and I reckon there's enough value underneath to keep you busy all afternoon.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Rosehill, 1100m to 2400m card
Rail: True (no rail position given in the data)
Official going: Soft 5 (Nil last 24hrs, 42.8mm last 7 days)
Weather: Fine, live gusts 9.3km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Moderate in R1, R2 and R8. Slow in R3 and R7. Genuine in R4, R5, R6, R9 and R10. The genuine-pace races are where the speed is, so the leaders in those races have to be respected.
Jockeys to follow:
Tommy Berry: Nine rides, the biggest book on the day. Lazzura ($1.45) in R7 and Horseshoe Hill ($2.00) in R10 are the two that matter most to the card.
Dylan Gibbons: Eight rides, headlined by Cashout ($3.10) in R5 and Mareth in R7 at $126.00 in a race where the front is a question.
Zac Lloyd: Eight rides, with Donatello ($3.00) in R4 and Mercy Me's rival books spread through the afternoon. Chains Of Love in R7 and Powder Man in R2 are his other live rides.
Stables to respect:
C J Waller (11 runners): Lazzura ($1.45), Donatello ($3.00) and Declichy Boulevard ($4.20) headline a stable with more runners than anyone else on the card.
G Waterhouse & A Bott (4 runners): Savvy Spy ($2.70) and Criteria ($7.00) in the Ranvet are the two I want to see run on at the business end.
M Price & M Kent Jnr (4 runners): Cashout ($3.10) in R5 is the standout, and Storm Season in R4 is a live roughie-type runner in a genuine-pace race.

Punty's take: This is a meeting for people who read a map, not people who just look at the odds. The speed is spread across the card, but the genuine-pace races (R4, R5, R6, R9 and R10) are where the front-runners get to make the running and the backmarkers have to earn their keep. Thrice is the lone leader in R4 with nobody else on the speed, so that race sets up for a horse who sits back and finishes, which is why Donatello is my bet there. R5 is built around Rose Aye on the front with Cashout sitting handy from barrier 3, and Cashout is the one I'd take on the chin.

The slow-pace races are the traps. R3 and R7 both shape as races where the leaders can get away with it, and the closers have to be genuinely good to run them down. Lazzura in R7 is the banker of the day on his record, but a slow pace is the only thing that worries me about him. In R9, Swordplay is the lone leader from barrier 9, and Mercy Me sits handy from barrier 4 and fits the shape best of anything in the race. Some of the late-market moves have been huge, so watch the price tables as the day goes on.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on the win bets where my numbers are strongest: Lazzura, Donatello, Cashout, Mercy Me and Horseshoe Hill. The Big 3 leans on the first three of those, so the spine of your day is already set. Protect your money in R1, R2 and R6, where the fields are wide open and the prices on the second and third runners are the ones to keep an eye on.

Treat R3 as the race where the each-way on Savisanta does the heavy lifting. R6 is the chaos race of the day, with no runner above 15 percent, so any sequence ticket through there is a bet on a long shot paying. Don't chase. Keep your units tight on the short-priced favourites and use the sequences for fun, not for rent.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Lazzura (Race 7, No.1) — $1.45
Why Lazzura has the best record on the card by a country mile (8 wins from 20 starts, and 3 wins from 6 on Track), and his last start was a win at Randwick. He's the one to bank, and the price is short enough that you're not going to make a fortune, but he's the anchor.

2 - Horseshoe Hill (Race 10, No.9) — $2.00
Why Horseshoe Hill has the strongest chance on the card at 35.6 percent and Tommy Berry is on board. He's short, but he gets a barrier 1 draw in a genuine-pace race where the shape helps him sit midfield.

3 - Mercy Me (Race 9, No.2) — $3.65
Why Mercy Me has been backed in from $4.60 to $3.65 and he's one of the fastest-finishing horses in the race, with sectionals showing a time-fastest run on the record. He sits handy from barrier 4 and the genuine pace in front of him suits.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × 10.58 = $105.80

Race 1 – TAB Highway Hcp

Race type: Class 3, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace on paper, but nobody maps clearly to lead, so the front is a scramble. Defiance (barrier 12) and Just Hear Me Out (barrier 8) are the ones most likely to find it, with Comongin and Le Chocolat drawn wide and needing to work to cross. Mainstay sits midfield from barrier 7 and the shape is against him, so I need the record to do the talking.
Punty read: Mainstay is the one I'm putting money on, and it's a each-way bet, not a fancy one. He's three starts, three wins, and that is the rarest line on the card. He's midfield, so the pace isn't his friend, but he's won in a way that tells me he can get it done anyway. Yesspecially has the speed and the market loves him, but a $3.45 favourite with a 13.5 percent win chance is not my cup of tea. Defiance is the one to watch on the front, and Brave Xena is the one I'd want to have a crack at if Mainstay gets outrun.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Mainstay (No.3) — $5.00 / $1.90
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $51.75 if it wins ($37.50 win + $14.25 place), $14.25 if it only places
Prob 20.8% | Place: 47.6% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why Three starts, three wins, and the best win chance in the race by a mile. Aaron Bullock has a strong track record with Mainstay's stable, and the market has him as the second-shortest in the field. The pace is against him, but he's proven he can win from midfield.

2. Brave Xena (No.4) — $7.60 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.10x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.

3. Yesspecially (No.18) — $3.45 / $1.52
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.5% | Place: 40.6% | Value: 0.47x Steady since tip
Why Three career wins from as many starts, and the market has moved from $4.20 into $3.45, which is heavy money. Kerrin Mc Evoy can ride a race, but the Speed Rank of 12 says he is not a natural front-runner, so he has to find a trail.

Roughie: Just Hear Me Out (No.8) — $26.00 / $4.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 1.40x Steady since tip
Why Just Hear Me Out has the early speed and can sit handy if the front stays loose. He's won 3 of 11 from 2 to 6 at the trip, and if the speed collapses he's the one who grabs a place.

Race 2 – Midway

Race type: Benchmark 72, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with nobody clearly mapped to lead. I Am Carrot (barrier 16), Cryptonic (barrier 12) and Kitty Okay (barrier 17) are all drawn wide and need to work to cross. Maidoff sits midfield from barrier 5 and the shape suits him, so he's the one to get the trail.
Punty read: Maidoff is the one I'm backing. Midfield from barrier 5, the shape helps him and the trip suits, and his last three runs include two wins at Illawarra Grange. Nash Rawiller is a sharp ride and Maidoff's record at the trip is his best asset. Congressman is the one with value but his place price doesn't pay enough to bet. Lawless Lucy has the record but the shape is against her, so she's the one to keep an eye on.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)

1. Maidoff (No.5) — $3.80 / $1.65
Bet $7.00 Win, return $26.60
Prob 16.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.62x Steady since tip
Why Nash Rawiller on the rails-side draw and a midfield run with the shape in his favour. His last start was a 5th at Randwick, but he won two of his three prior runs at the same kind of trip. Good value at $3.60.

2. Congressman (No.4) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Lawless Lucy (No.12) — $7.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Jason Collett rides and she won at Newcastle 1250m last start before the Randwick 6th. The shape is against her, but she's good enough to run into the frame if the front-runners go too quick.

Roughie: Scintilla (No.7) — $9.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.02x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 2 and the fastest early speed rank in the race. Soft 3:2-0-0 is a strong line and if she's handy and the leader is a bit keen, she can hang on for a placing.

Race 3 – Ranvet

Race type: Benchmark 78, 2400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace on paper. Nkosi (barrier 7) and Criteria (barrier 6) are the likely leaders and the two that can make the race slow if they want to. Medatsu, Savvy Spy and Party It Down are all drawn wide and need cover. Savisanta sits midfield from barrier 4 and the slow pace works for him, which is why he's the one I'd want to stick with.
Punty read: Savisanta is the bet. Tommy Berry rides, C J Waller trains, and the slow pace suits a horse who can sit midfield and finish. Blinkers come off for the first time and he's 1 win, 4 seconds, and 2 thirds from 15 career starts. The price of $4.70 is decent and the place chance is strong, so the each-way is the right way to play it. Savvy Spy is the danger with the best closing sectionals, and Criteria is the one who can lead if Nkosi won't.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Savisanta (No.2) — $4.70 / $1.62
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P), collects $23.71 if it wins ($17.63 win + $6.08 place), $6.08 if it only places
Prob 25.2% | Place: 51.5% | Value: 1.18x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers off for the first time, he's 3kg up from last start (best at similar weights), and Caulfield 2400m was a 3rd on the record. Tommy Berry on board and the slow pace in front of him is the set-up I want.

2. Savvy Spy (No.3) — $2.70 / $1.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.5% | Place: 58.2% | Value: 0.55x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.

3. Criteria (No.5) — $7.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.13x Steady since tip
Why Warwick Farm 2400m was a 2nd and a 3rd at Rosehill 2400m. He's the one who can lead the race and take the sting out of the pace.

Roughie: Saint Emilion (No.7) — $9.00 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why He's midfield and the trip is his. If the leaders go quick early and hold on, he's the one who runs on late and grabs a place.

Race 4 – Vale Rob Burnet

Race type: Benchmark 78, 1800m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, but Thrice (barrier 11) is the only leader on the map and Storm Season (barrier 10) is the only one to pressure him. That means the front is uncontested, and the horses sitting back have to make ground through a field that isn't fighting. Donatello sits back from barrier 9 and the shape is against him, so he has to win on his closing sectionals.
Punty read: Donatello is the bet. His sectionals are fastest across the board, with L600, L400 and time all ranking at the top, and his last two runs were both seconds. Zac Lloyd rides and C J Waller trains. The shape is against him, but a genuine pace with only one leader is a race that can fall apart late. Thrice is the one to watch on the speed, and Botanical Boy is the one who can get the trail if the pace drops.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Donatello (No.6) — $3.00 / $1.45
Bet $7.50 Win, return $22.50
Prob 25.3% | Place: 60.6% | Value: 0.76x Steady since tip
Why Fastest L600, fastest L400 and fastest time on the record, and 2 seconds from 9 career starts. The shape isn't in his favour, but a lone leader in a genuine race makes that a fair trade.

2. Botanical Boy (No.3) — $4.90 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.8% | Place: 58.6% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Samarelle (No.2) — $5.20 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.2% | Place: 59.3% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why Anna Roper rides and Samarelle has won his last two starts at Warwick Farm. The value is there and the place chance is strong.

Roughie: Storm Season (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Storm Season sits handy off Thrice and his sectionals are rated well. If Thrice runs out of steam early he's the horse who has the speed to take over.

Race 5 – Singapore Pools

Race type: Benchmark 78, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. Rose Aye (barrier 6) is the lone leader and Cashout (barrier 3) is the closest to pressure him. Probability Theory and Accidental Bid are drawn wide and need to work to cross. Cashout settles handy and the shape helps him, which is the best setup on the card for a horse who wants the trail.
Punty read: Cashout is the one I'm backing and he's the shortest price in the race that I'm happy to take on. Four wins from five at the trip and a Cranbourne 1400m win last start. Dylan Gibbons rides and M Price & M Kent Jnr train. The only thing I'd worry about is the price, but the shape helps and he's the best horse here. Probability Theory is the one who can get the trail and Bella Khadijah is the closer who could be a surprise.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Cashout (No.1) — $3.10 / $1.40
Bet $10.50 Win, return $32.55
Prob 25.1% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why Four wins from five at the trip, the shape is in his favour and he's won his last two. Dylan Gibbons rides a horse who sits handy and this is the kind of race he wants.

2. Bella Khadijah (No.4) — $6.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Probability Theory (No.5) — $7.50 / $2.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 37.8% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why Tommy Berry rides and he's 4 wins from 8 on Good. He'll be sitting handy and can take advantage if Cashout gets caught wide.

Roughie: Rose Aye (No.8) — $11.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.10x Steady since tip
Why Rose Aye is the lone leader and the genuine pace is the trick. If nobody challenges, he can make the race his own from barrier 6.

Race 6 – Golden Gift

Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace, with Royal Accord (barrier 12) the lone leader and Chasing Archer (barrier 14) the only one who can challenge him. Act Up and Jenni In Rome are drawn wide and need cover. Silent Intent sits back from barrier 3 and the shape suits him.
Punty read: Silent Intent is the bet, and his record is thin (one start, a 3rd at Flemington 1000m). Tim Clark rides and T & C McEvoy trains. The price of $6.50 with a 13.5 percent win chance gives me enough to take a look. The trainer's recent strike rate is cold, which is a concern, but the pace and barrier are in his favour. Exo Velocity has a win at Randwick 1000m last start and Act Up is the one who has a sharp price.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.50 pool)

1. Silent Intent (No.7) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet $8.50 Each Way ($4.25W + $4.25P), collects $37.83 if it wins ($27.63 win + $10.20 place), $10.20 if it only places
Prob 13.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 3 and the shape helps him settle back. One start on the record is a thin base, but the trip and the early pace suit.

2. Exo Velocity (No.9) — $6.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.

3. Act Up (No.1) — $8.50 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why Nash Rawiller rides and the combo is strong. He's coming from the back and the price is generous, so he's the one who can salute at a big number.

Roughie: Jenni In Rome (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why Randwick 1000m was a 3rd last start and Jason Collett rides. If the leader gets run down, she's a genuine runner for a place at a long price.

Race 7 – Toyota Forklifts Hot Danish Stakes

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace. Gerringong (barrier 9) and Chains Of Love (barrier 8) are the likeliest to find the front, but both are drawn wide and need to work to cross. Lazzura sits midfield from barrier 2, and the shape is against him, but the record is so strong he doesn't need the pace to fall apart.
Punty read: Lazzura is the banker, and I'm not going to fight a $1.45 price. Eight wins from 20 starts, three wins from six on Track and a Randwick 1400m win last start. Tommy Berry rides and C J Waller trains. The slow pace is the only worry, but a horse of his quality doesn't need the front to win. Gerringong is the one with the speed, and Chains Of Love is the one who can take the lead if Gerringong gets run wide.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Lazzura (No.1) — $1.45 / $1.02
Bet $15.00 Win, return $21.75
Prob 51.9% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why Eight wins from 20 and his last start was a win at Randwick. He's 2kg down from last start, and Tommy Berry knows how to ride him from midfield.

2. Gerringong (No.3) — $6.50 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 52.6% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Chains Of Love (No.8) — $9.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.9% | Place: 44.3% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why Randwick 1200m was a win last start and Zac Lloyd rides. He's 4kg up from last start, so the weight matters, but the form is good enough to hold a place.

Roughie: Tuileries (No.2) — $10.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 45.9% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why He's a midfield runner with the Equicast on for the first time. If the front-runners stop and the race is run to the line, he can run on.

Race 8 – Five Diamonds

Race type: Open, 1800m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace. Evaporate (barrier 4), Athanatos (barrier 6) and Imperialist (barrier 12) are the likeliest to find the front and Imperialist has to work from the outside. Declichy Boulevard sits back from barrier 5 and the shape is against him, so he has to win on his sectionals.
Punty read: Declichy Boulevard is the bet. He's the one who sits back and finishes, and he's just won at Randwick 1500m. Tommy Berry rides and C J Waller trains. The shape is against him but the moderate pace means the field is likely to be close late. Linebacker is the one who sits midfield and has the value, and Welcometotheshow is the one to watch if the field closes up.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.00 pool)

1. Declichy Boulevard (No.8) — $4.20 / $1.80
Bet $9.00 Win, return $37.80
Prob 16.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why Randwick 1500m was a win last start and he's 4 wins from 16 career starts. He's 2kg up from last start but the heavier weights suit him, and Tommy Berry rides a horse who finishes well.

2. Linebacker (No.1) — $6.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.25 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Welcometotheshow (No.11) — $7.50 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Craig Newitt rides and he ran 3rd at Randwick 1500m last start. He's midfield and the combo with the jockey has been strong.

Roughie: Tuxedo (No.2) — $9.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 28.4% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers are back on for the second time and cross-over nose band goes on for the first time. He's a backmarker with the fastest time sectional on the record, so if the pace collapses he's the one who runs down the field.

Race 9 – Grant Burge

Race type: Benchmark 78, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace. Swordplay (barrier 9) is the lone leader and Mercy Me sits handy from barrier 4 with the shape in his favour. Detain and She's My Ex are drawn wide and need to work to cross. Mercy Me is the one who sits handy and runs down a fading leader.
Punty read: Mercy Me is the bet, and his market has moved from $4.60 into $3.65, which is heavy money. Nathan Doyle trains and Tim Clark rides. He's the one with the speed and the trip, and his sectionals are fastest on the time. Swordplay is the danger on the lead and Agatha is the one who can run into a placing.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Mercy Me (No.2) — $3.65 / $1.45
Bet $10.00 Win, return $36.50
Prob 29.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.09x Steady since tip
Why Heavy money from $4.60 to $3.65, a time-fastest run on the record and he sits handy from barrier 4 with the shape in his favour. The trip and the form both point his way.

2. Swordplay (No.1) — $4.70 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.00x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.62 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Agatha (No.9) — $3.95 / $1.52
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Tommy Berry rides and the market has moved heavily from $5.50 to $3.95. He's a midfield runner with fastest L600 and time rank 2 on the record.

Roughie: Flightcrew (No.10) — $18.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 16.7% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Dylan Gibbons rides and his early speed rank is 1, so he can sit handy if Swordplay goes quick. He's 0 wins from 8 at 56-60kg, so the weight is a warning, but at $18.00 the place is the play if the race breaks his way.

Race 10 – Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines

Race type: Benchmark 78, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Let's Go Again (barrier 3) the lone leader and Nullarbor Jane (barrier 4) the closest to pressure him. Horseshoe Hill sits midfield from barrier 1 and the shape helps him. Nitro is the backmarker who closes fast, so the pace is his friend too.
Punty read: Horseshoe Hill is the bet. Tommy Berry rides, Bjorn Baker trains and the market has moved from $3.70 into $2.00, which is heavy money. Sectionals show time fastest on the record, and he's midfield with the shape in his favour. Nitro is the one to watch from the back, and Nullarbor Jane is the one who grabs a place if the front is contested.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Horseshoe Hill (No.9) — $2.05 / $1.14
Bet $15.00 Win, return $30.75
Prob 35.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why He's the strongest chance on the card by a long way and the market has backed him in from $3.70 to $2.00. He's midfield, the shape is in his favour and Tommy Berry knows the trip.

2. Nitro (No.4) — $5.20 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.6% | Place: 60.3% | Value: 1.02x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Nullarbor Jane (No.6) — $9.00 / $2.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Anna Roper rides and she sits handy. Her record at the trip is solid and if the leader gets run down, she's a placing chance.

Roughie: Mailata (No.3) — $13.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.24x Steady since tip
Why Zac Lloyd rides and he's a midfield runner who ran 2nd at Randwick in his prior start. If the favourite gets caught, he has the closing ability to run on.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R3–R6)

Smart: 3,2,5 / 6,2,3 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,7,9,10 (144 combos x $0.3472 = $50.00) -- 34.7% flexi
Punty's take: Savisanta and Savvy Spy keep R3 tight, Donatello and Botanical Boy hold R4, and Cashout anchors R5, with R6 wide open. The flexi sits above the 30% floor, but R6 is where the risk lives, so a $5 to $10 winner there is what turns this into a payout.

QUADDIE (R7–R10)

Smart: 1,3,2 / 8,1,11,2 / 2,1,9 / 9,4,3,6 (144 combos x $0.3472 = $50.00) -- 34.7% flexi
Punty's take: Lazzura at $1.45 is the tight leg and Horseshoe Hill sits at $2.00, but R8 and R9 are open enough to give the ticket life. The 36.5% flexi clears the 30% floor, so a clean run through the card pays properly.

BIG 6 (R5–R10)

Smart: 1,4,5,8 / 1,7,9,10 / 1,3,2,8 / 8,1,11,2 / 2,1,9,11 / 9,4,3,6 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
Punty's take: Six legs and 4800 combos, so this is an entertainment-only ticket. The flexi sits at the 0.10% floor, so you're buying a lottery ticket and nothing more.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Equicast comes off Whateley
Equicast goes off for the first time on No.9 Whateley in R1, a horse with a 0 wins from 5 record at 58-62kg. Watch the market on him.

2 - Blinkers off Savisanta
Blinkers come off Savisanta for the first time in R3, and he's 3kg up from last start. The Ranvet is where his stable's gear change is going to tell the story.

3 - Chemtrail's market plunge
Chemtrail in R10 has gone from $61.00 into $23.00, a heavy move that the market hasn't been able to explain. If you like a long-shot running on a fast closing sectional, you know where to look.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Ten races, one soft track, and a card full of people who think they know the form. Go and have a crack, be sensible with your units, and if Lazzura gets stuck in traffic, remember you only need one horse to pay the rent.