For all of Punty's tips for Ascot, head to https://punty.ai/tips/ascot-2026-11-03

Rightio Sickos, Ascot on a Good 4 with the rail at +11m Entire and nine races from 1000m to 1800m. There's only one genuine lone leader on the card, so the speed is spread out, the backmarkers have a chance in the chaos races, and the bankers are easy to spot if you know where to look. Grab a brew, bring your ticket munching appetite, and let's go.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Ascot, 1000m to 1800m card
Rail: +11m Entire
Official going: Good 4
Weather: Fine, live gusts 13km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Moderate in R1, R5 and R6, Genuine in R2, R3 and R9, Slow in R4 and R8, Hot in R7. Two of the races with a Slow pace have closers drawn wide, so the tempo matters more than usual.
Jockeys to follow:
Holly Nottle: eight rides today, including Rising Fame in R5, Catch Carter in R7 and More Darling in R3. She's the one to watch if the early tempo goes against the pace.
Steven Parnham: eight rides, with Firearm in R7 and Dug Another Hole in R9 among them. Jockey and trainer both have the Parnham family name, so it's worth checking his rides closely.
Brad Parnham: seven rides, including Pucker Up in R5, Mystic Smile in R3 and Dug Another Hole in R9. He's booked on a couple of the best chances on the card.
Stables to respect:
N D Parnham (9 runners): the biggest stable on the card, with Official Business in R1, Caporetto in R7 and Parish Prince in R6. Nine runners at one meeting is a lot of ammo.
D L Morton (6 runners): Pucker Up in R5, Playing Solo in R9 and Ruthless Angel in R8. Pucker Up's R5 price has come in hard, so the stable has the right horse in the right race.
Luke Fernie (6 runners): Please Mizter in R9 is the standout, and Clobberconi in R1 and Seindeel in R4 round out the team.

Punty's take: The speed map is where the day starts. Leg Godt is the only genuine leader in R2 and More Darling is the only one in R3, which means those two races should set up for a clean run for the handy types. R7 is the Hot Pace race with four runners mapped to lead (Catch Carter, Spanish Armada, Wiluna Lass and Roaming America), so the backmarkers get their chance if the front four burn each other out. R4 and R8 are slow, and in both of those the closers are drawn wide, which makes them hard work.

The bankers are obvious. Bourbonontherocks at $2.25 in R6 and Official Business at $1.85 in R1 are the two shortest chances I'd want in the mail, and Pucker Up has come from $2.25 to $1.65 in R5 so the money is talking there too. R3 is the chaos race with 17 runners in a maiden, and R8 is an open race at $125,000 with 18 runners where the favourite is $3.80. Those two are where I'd be happy to chase the value.

What it means for you: Be aggressive where the card is short-priced and the map is friendly. Official Business in R1 and Bourbonontherocks in R6 are the anchors, and Pucker Up in R5 is the third leg of the Big 3 and the first leg of the Early Quaddie. Protect the bank in R3 and R8, where the field is wide open and the favourites have plenty of ways to lose. The Each Way bets in R7, R8 and R9 are about getting paid if the favourite falls over and the place still lands. The sequences are structured around the Big 3 and the banker races, so the early ticket is tight in R5 and R3 and wide in R2 and R4.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Official Business (Race 1, No.1) — $1.85
Why Two wins from seven starts with a 1st at Ascot and a 1st at Northam in his last three runs. He sits handy from barrier 1 and the market has backed him from $2.45 into $1.85, which tells you the money knows what it's looking at.
2 - Bourbonontherocks (Race 6, No.3) — $2.25
Why Last start was a 1st at Belmont Park 1400m, and he has a 1 win, 1 second and 1 third record from three starts on good ground. Shaun O'Donnell keeps him handy from barrier 6, which is exactly where you want a horse like this in a Moderate Pace race.
3 - Pucker Up (Race 5, No.10) — $1.65
Why Three runs, three placings, all seconds: Ascot 1200m, Lark Hill 930m and Belmont Park 1200m. He's down 3kg from last start, and the money has come from $2.25 to $1.65. The shape is against him, but a horse that's been second three times in a row at the right weight is hard to ignore.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × 6.87 = $68.70

Race 1 – Schweppes

Race type: Rst 0 Met Win-LY, 1100m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace on paper with nobody mapped to lead. Official Business from barrier 1, Twilight Star from barrier 2 and Supersmash from the wide barrier 7 are the most likely to find the front. Official Business sits handy and my numbers have the shape working against him, but he's been running the right way on the right tracks. Dune Runner's map is unknown, so I'm not claiming a position for him.
Punty read: Official Business is the bet, $10.50 win at $1.85, and that's the one I want to hang my hat on. He's the best credentialed horse in the race with the fastest last 400 on the sectionals data and a win and a second at Ascot. Twilight Star has been finishing well and sits handy too, so he's the one to watch if the front pair do too much work. Juniper is the midfield runner who needs a fast pace to run down the leaders. Dune Runner has three gear changes today, so he's the wildcard.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Official Business (No.1) — $1.85 / $1.09
Bet $10.50 Win, return $19.43
Prob 43.8% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Best record in the race, sits handy from barrier 1, and the market backing is real. The shape is against him, but he's won at Ascot and has a fast last 400, which is enough for me.
2. Twilight Star (No.8) — $7.40 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.07x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Juniper (No.2) — $8.00 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 6 and a 3rd at Belmont Park in his most recent start. The Belmont form is decent and the L400 rank is 2.

Roughie: Dune Runner (No.4) — $13.00 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.30x Steady since tip
Why Three gear changes on the day (cross-over nose band, ear muffs and tongue tie, all first time) make him the most unpredictable runner in the race. If the pace collapses and a few of them get stuck behind, he's the one who can come from the back.

Race 2 – Mc Equine Surfaces Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1000m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Leg Godt uncontested on the lead from barrier 4. Kings Park (barrier 8), London's Rascal (barrier 7) and Golden Chatter (barrier 6) are the forward runners who'll have to work hard to get into the pressure. Ace Queen Suited is drawn 9 and needs cover. Flying Swagman sits handy from barrier 5 and the shape is against him, so he needs the lone leader to be run down.
Punty read: Flying Swagman is the bet at $1.90, $10.50 win. The shape is against him but the form and the market say otherwise, and his record includes a 1st at Northam and a 1st at Lark Hill in his last three starts. He's down the middle of the card in strength, and I'm happy to ride him through a fast tempo. Ace Queen Suited has a fast last 400 and a combo with Lucy F Fiore that's been solid, so she's the danger. Gabex has the place value stats and the market loves him at $8.00, so he's a serious place threat.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Flying Swagman (No.5) — $2.00 / $1.10
Bet $10.50 Win, return $21.00
Prob 22.5% | Place: 54.5% | Value: 0.45x Steady since tip
Why He's been handy in both of his good runs at Northam and Lark Hill. Wait for the sectional, but the early position from barrier 5 is good, and Paul Harvey has the sort of ride that makes you think he'll move on the outside if needed. He is up 3kg from last start, which is a small worry.
2. Ace Queen Suited (No.8) — $5.20 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.0% | Place: 47.9% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Gabex (No.6) — $8.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.50x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 3 with Jefferson Tsang aboard, and he's already been running on in his last three starts. His good record is one win from one start, but the sectionals are sharp.

Roughie: Scenic George (No.2) — $9.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why He's run 24 starts for 1 win, 5 seconds and 3 thirds, and the L600 is fastest on his sectionals. If the lone leader gets run down in the last 200, he's one who could sneak in.

Race 3 – Bisley Workwear Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with More Darling the only leader from barrier 17. The forward runners drawn wide, Talk Too Much (barrier 16) and More Darling (barrier 17), will have to work to cross, and the back-half runners (Bahnbougle Baby, Playful Lady and Torque Of War) need the cover. The expected pace suits the forward runners. Mystic Smile sits handy from barrier 7 and my numbers have the shape working against him.
Punty read: Mystic Smile is the bet at $3.40, $15.00 win. He's the one in this field who's been running in the right company, with a 2nd at Belmont Park 1000m last start and 2nd at Belmont Park 850m before that. He's the most consistent horse in a maiden full of unknowns. The danger is Morikawa, who sits midfield and has a solid place value, and Buster's Babe, the one drawn 9 who's a value play in the market. The track is wide-open enough that a few of the outsiders could hit the frame.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Mystic Smile (No.11) — $3.50 / $1.60
Bet $15.00 Win, return $52.50
Prob 28.0% | Place: 55.0% | Value: 0.98x Steady since tip
Why Two seconds in his last three runs and 2kg lighter this time. He sits handy from barrier 7 and his time sectional is rank 2. Brad Parnham is in the saddle, and the trainer T M Andrews has him right.
2. Morikawa (No.5) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Buster's Babe (No.6) — $8.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 9 with an L600 rank 2 and a lot of Paul Harvey ride quality. The strike rate with the jockey and trainer is decent and the market is stronger than it looks.

Roughie: Divine Mirage (No.12) — $17.00 / $4.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.69x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 5 and has run 3rd at Northam 1300m last start. He's had a bump and a bit of interference in the last few starts, so if he gets a clean run, the place is the realistic result.

Race 4 – Choices By Dallimores Hcp (C3)

Race type: Class 3, 1800m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with nobody mapped to lead, though Mistress Of War from barrier 3 and Knockoneback from barrier 6 are the likeliest to find the front. Space Academy, La Excellence and Saucisson are the closers and they're hurt the most by the expected pace. Razmas settles midfield from barrier 4 and the shape is against him, so he needs the race to be ridden with a bit of pace in the straight.
Punty read: Razmas is the bet at $4.20, $10.50 win. He's won three times on good ground, has a 4th at Ascot 1600m in his most recent starts, and the Hcp is a true test for a horse who's been handy in the middle of the field. The danger is More Heroic, who has a fast last 600 and the sectionals to back it. Mistress Of War is the one who'll set the tempo from the front and my numbers rate him well. Neap Tide is the roughie with a long price and a lot of trip.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Razmas (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.70
Bet $10.50 Win, return $44.10
Prob 21.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 4 with three wins from 32 starts on the Good track. The shape is against him, but he's been running 4th, 5th and 6th at Ascot and Northam at 1600m, which tells me he's competitive when it's a true test.
2. More Heroic (No.9) — $5.50 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Mistress Of War (No.2) — $5.70 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.74x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 3 and has the fastest time sectional in the race. Good form record with three wins from 29 starts, and he's the horse that could make this a true staying test.

Roughie: Neap Tide (No.1) — $10.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why Back of the field from barrier 7 and needs the race to fall apart in the straight. He's had a few excuses, including a held-up run at Belmont Park and a medical or physical issue at Pinjarra, so if he's healthy he can sprint late from the back.

Race 5 – Swan Draught Hcp (C3)

Race type: Class 3, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Noahquintilly from barrier 2 and Rising Fame from barrier 3 both mapped to lead, so it's a contested front. Pucker Up sits back from barrier 8 and the shape is against him, but a contested lead can mean the leaders run each other into the ground. Beau's A Lad, Secret Planet and Pucker Up are the back-half runners who need cover or luck.
Punty read: Pucker Up is the bet at $1.65, $13.00 win. He's second in three of his last three runs, and his last 400 and last 600 are both fastest on the sectionals. He's down 3kg from last start, and he's the one I want when the leaders run out of gas. The danger is Noahquintilly, who has a good combo with Chris Parnham and has been drifting in price. Secret Planet has the fastest time sectional in his line and is the one who can run into the place.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Pucker Up (No.10) — $1.65 / $1.09
Bet $13.00 Win, return $21.45
Prob 33.1% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.55x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 8, but three seconds in three starts is hard to ignore, and his fastest sectionals are the best on the card. The shape is against him in a Moderate pace, but he has the closing kick to override it.
2. Noahquintilly (No.2) — $7.50 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 46.0% | Value: 1.41x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Secret Planet (No.8) — $8.50 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.02x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 9 with the fastest time sectional in his line, and a 2nd at Belmont Park 1200m last start. The market has drifted from $5.50 to $8.00, but he's still the one who can finish with them.

Roughie: Rising Fame (No.11) — $9.50 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.40x Steady since tip
Why Leads from barrier 3 and the market is firming, from $11.00 to $9.50. He's won at York 1300m last start and is down 2kg from last start, so if he gets clear in the first 300m he can hang on for a place.

Race 6 – Consilium Corporate Hcp (C1)

Race type: Class 1, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with no runner mapped to lead, though Parish Prince from barrier 9, Bourbonontherocks from barrier 6, Idodomya from barrier 3, Bella Violetta from barrier 5 and Ah Kum from barrier 4 are the likeliest to find the front. Parish Prince is drawn wide and has to work to cross. Redrye and Astonisher are the back-half runners who need cover. Bourbonontherocks sits handy and the shape is against him, but he's a class horse in this company.
Punty read: Bourbonontherocks is the bet at $2.25, $13.00 win. He's won last start at Belmont Park 1400m and was second at Ascot 1400m before that. He's the best value in the race, and the market has him at $2.25 for a reason. The danger is Dixie Doo, who's a backmarker with blinkers on for the first time and a combo with Chris Parnham that has produced. Bella Violetta sits handy, and his last-start 5th at Belmont Park 1600m shows the form is there.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Bourbonontherocks (No.3) — $2.25 / $1.22
Bet $13.00 Win, return $29.25
Prob 42.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why Last start was a win at Belmont Park 1400m and his record is one win, one second and one third from three starts on good ground. Shaun O'Donnell rides him handy from barrier 6 and the market is behind him.
2. Dixie Doo (No.6) — $2.94 / $1.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.4% | Place: 53.6% | Value: 0.57x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.35 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Bella Violetta (No.10) — $9.00 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 5 with a 5th at Belmont Park 1600m last start. She's been placed in four of her last ten or so starts, and the 1600m trip suits her.

Roughie: Pincer Movement (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 1 and his fastest last 400 on the sectionals is the best in the race. The trainer strike rate with Michael Grantham is strong, and if the front runners fold in a Moderate pace, he's the one who can run through them.

Race 7 – Hunter Manning Recruitment Hcp (C3)

Race type: Class 3, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot pace with four runners mapped to lead: Catch Carter from barrier 5, Spanish Armada from barrier 7, Wiluna Lass from barrier 2 and Roaming America from barrier 8. Roaming America is the one helped most by the expected pace, while Caporetto and Roaming America are both drawn wide. Firearm sits back from barrier 4 and the shape helps him, so the front four are going to have to burn each other out.
Punty read: Firearm is the bet at $4.40, $10.50 each way. He's got a fast L600 and L400 on the sectionals, and with the front four going at each other, he's the one who can pick them off late. The Nun is the danger from barrier 1, having just had visors put on for the first time, and the market has backed him from $6.50 to $4.20. Caporetto is the one who sits handy and has the class to keep the race honest.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Firearm (No.8) — $4.40 / $1.72
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P), collects $32.13 if it wins ($23.10 win + $9.03 place), $9.03 if it only places
Prob 20.3% | Place: 53.1% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 4 with L600 rank 3, L400 rank 2 and time rank 2 on the sectionals. He's been running on at Ascot and Northam, and the shape is in his favour in a Hot Pace race. The place is the realistic floor.
2. The Nun (No.7) — $4.20 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.7% | Place: 58.1% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Caporetto (No.10) — $10.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why Sits handy from barrier 10 and has a win at Lark Hill 1050m last start. He's a class horse with a good track and distance record, and the market drift from $6.00 to $10.00 is a bit much for a horse with his form.

Roughie: Brave Dragon (No.6) — $17.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 6 with two wins from six at the trip. In a Hot Pace race, the front four could collapse and Brave Dragon's kick from the back is the way he wins.

Race 8 – TABtouch Burgess Queen Stakes

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with Dynastic Lass the likeliest to find the front from barrier 7. Drawn wide, a bunch of closers (They'reallsisters, In Good Nicc, Lady Torque, She's A Splinter, Angel Express and Royal Reflection) need cover or luck. Pucker Up is left out of the pace picture because he's a dual acceptor who runs in R5. Treasured Legacy sits midfield from barrier 9 and my numbers have the shape helping him.
Punty read: Treasured Legacy is the bet at $3.80, $13.00 each way. He's won at Bunbury 1400m and was 2nd at Ascot 1400m last start, so he's got the form and the trip. The danger is Royal Reflection, who's won at Bunbury 1200m and has the value to match. Jedi Dream from barrier 1 sits midfield and is the one who can take the lead if nobody else wants it. In a Slow pace, Treasured Legacy's position in the middle of the field is the sweet spot.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Treasured Legacy (No.8) — $3.80 / $1.70
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), collects $35.75 if it wins ($24.70 win + $11.05 place), $11.05 if it only places
Prob 16.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.64x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 9 with a 2nd at Ascot 1400m last start and a win at Bunbury 1400m. Chris Parnham is in the saddle and the combo strike rate sits at 22.7 percent.
2. Royal Reflection (No.13) — $12.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.28x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Jedi Dream (No.3) — $8.50 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 1 with a 2nd at Ascot 1000m last start and a Track record of one win and one second from five starts. A cheap chance for a place if the speed sits up.

Roughie: Pucker Up (No.16) — $11.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 16 with no jockey booked for him in this race, so he's a risk. If he gets a clean run from the back and the leader is run down, the R5 form line is worth something.

Race 9 – Brooks Hire (Rs0ly)

Race type: Rst 0 Met Win-LY, 1500m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Exceltrain the only leader from barrier 9, and Dug Another Hole sits handy from barrier 8 as the nearest pressure. Divine Inanna and Armino are drawn wide and have to work to cross, while Miss Wall Street and Norma Stars are back-half runners who need cover. The expected pace suits the forward runners and Dug Another Hole is helped by it. Please Mizter sits handy from barrier 6 and the shape helps him.
Punty read: Please Mizter is the bet at $4.40, $13.00 each way. He's won his last three starts at Kalgoorlie (1400m, 1600m and 1400m), and the market has him at $4.40 with a place price that makes him a great each way proposition. The danger is Dug Another Hole, who's back in the market after a firming price and a 2nd at Ascot 1400m last start. Playing Solo is the one who can run into the place from midfield at barrier 7.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Please Mizter (No.7) — $4.40 / $1.85
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), collects $40.63 if it wins ($28.60 win + $12.03 place), $12.03 if it only places
Prob 21.8% | Place: 63.0% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why Three straight wins at Kalgoorlie in his last three starts and six wins from 20 Good starts. Lucy F Fiore has the ride and the shape helps him. The one knock is a 0 from 2 record at 58kg, but the weight is consistent with his form.
2. Playing Solo (No.13) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.1% | Place: 56.3% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Dug Another Hole (No.2) — $4.40 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.58x Steady since tip
Why Handy from barrier 8 and his Ascot 1400m form is strong. He's 6kg up from last start, which is the one thing that could hold him back.

Roughie: Too Much Talk (No.4) — $12.00 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.5% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 3 with the bar plates off for the first time, and a 1st at Pinjarra Scarpside 1500m in his past form. If the leaders go hard in a Genuine pace, he's the one who can come home late for the place.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R2–R5)

Smart: 5,8,6 / 11,5,6,4 / 2,3,9 / 10,11 (72 combos x $0.3472 = $25.00) -- 34.7% flexi
Punty's take: R3 and R5 are the tight legs with Mystic Smile and Pucker Up, while R2 and R4 are wide-open trios. The ticket is priced with a 30% flexi floor, so a $5 to $10 winner somewhere in those four races would make it worth the stretch.

QUADDIE (R6–R9)

Smart: 3,6 / 7,8 / 8,3,16,13 / 7,13,2 (48 combos x $0.4167 = $20.00) -- 41.7% flexi
Punty's take: Bourbonontherocks and Dixie Doo keep R6 tight, while R7 and R8 are the open legs where the value sits. The 30% flexi floor keeps this ticket reasonable, and a backmarker or roughie getting up in R7 or R8 is the way this pays well.

BIG 6 (R4–R9)

Smart: 2,3,9,1 / 10,11,2,8 / 3,6,10,4 / 7,8,10,6 / 8,3,16,13 / 7,13,2,4 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
Punty's take: Honest flag: this one is entertainment only. Six legs with four runners each is a lottery ticket with a pub story attached, and the 0.12% flexi means it pays only if every leg lands.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Blinkers go on first time
Artie's Eclipse (R2, No.7) gets blinkers on for the first time today, and the tongue control bit comes off, and the market has moved from $21.00 into $15.00. Worth watching whether the blinkers sharpen up a horse who's been racing wide in recent starts.
2 - Visors and a market backing
The Nun (R7, No.7) gets visors on for the first time and has been backed from $6.50 into $4.20. Not every visor change works, but the money has seen something.
3 - Pucker Up is in the book twice
Pucker Up is in the R5 Swan Draught as our Win pick at $1.65 and in the R8 Burgess Queen as the roughie at $10.00 with no jockey booked. Same horse, two very different races, and the Swan Draught is the one I'm putting money on.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Ascot is a day for the bankers to pay and the chaos races to humble us all. Keep the bank honest, keep the Big 3 dancing, and remember the favourite is only a favourite until he isn't.