Tuesday, 03 November 2026
No more jumps at this meeting today.
Punty's Punts
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace on paper, with nobody mapped to lead or sit handy. Salina Special, Mutsuhito and Grunnettan all sit back and the shape suits them, so the backmarkers are set up for a finish. Frozen Tide is drawn barrier 6 and sits midfield, and the shape helps her, but she has to find a run from there. Crackerjack Hatch from barrier 8 needs cover too, so the traffic will decide this one more than the pace.
Punty read: Frozen Tide is the bet and it's a short price for a reason. She's 2 wins from 22 for her career, placed in 4 of the 22, and was 2nd at Bendigo over 1400m last start. Darryl Horner rides her and the market has shortened her from $3.20 to $1.96, which is money coming. The danger is the trip, not the speed. Watch Salina Special, who has the sectionals to finish fast if the tempo stays this slow.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. Frozen Tide (No.5) — $2.90 / $1.40 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$28.50
Prob 39.2% | Place: 55.1% | Value: 1.14x
Why She's the bet because her form at this distance holds up, with 1 win and 1 second from 9 at the trip, and the market has told us the money is on her. A slow tempo gives her time to settle and she's a horse that picks up once they hit the turn.
2. Crackerjack Hatch (No.8) — $5.00 / $1.80 🏆 6TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.93x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Salina Special (No.3) — $5.80 / $2.45 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.94x
Why The fastest sectionals time in his runner data, and the shape favours backmarkers. The market has drifted him from $4.50 to $5.80, which I don't love, but the form is there.
Roughie: Grunnettan (No.7) — $14.50 / $3.90 🏆 5TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.7% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.98x
Why If the speed stays this slow and he gets a clear run from barrier 1, the fastest last 600m and 400m sectionals on his line could bring him home from the back.
Race type: Benchmark 70, 3200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace over 3200m, and nobody maps to lead or sit handy. Roaring Engine and Tempest Moon are midfield, Smokin' Rohie is a backmarker and the shape suits the backmarkers. The Cunning Fox sits back from barrier 4 and the shape is against him, so he needs the race to get tough late. Benbulben and Devoted To You are drawn wide and have to work for cover.
Punty read: The Cunning Fox is the bet. He's 13 wins from 45 for his career and 7 wins from 16 on soft, and he's won all 3 of his starts over his trip. He was bumped and hampered at Geelong 2400m last start and that run should be forgiven. The shape is against him, and I'm saying so, but a 3200m test with tired legs underneath suits a horse with his closing sectionals. Roaring Engine with blinkers back on is the danger, while Tempest Moon is the one to watch with plates and tongue tie on for the first time.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
★ PUNTY'S PICK 1. The Cunning Fox (No.1) — $2.25 / $1.12 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Win — ✓ Won, net +$18.75
Prob 44.4% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.00x
Why Two third-of-the-way-back runs and one bad luck run at Geelong. He's a stayer who has won at this exact trip, and his soft record is 7 wins from 16. If the speed collapses, he's the horse who comes home.
2. Roaring Engine (No.2) — $3.50 / $1.37 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.8% | Place: 47.2% | Value: 0.87x
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Tempest Moon (No.3) — $4.80 / $1.62 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.72x
Why Concussion plates and tongue tie go on for the first time, and he has 1 win from 2 in class 2. He's a horse who might be better with the gear and the trip.
Roughie: Call Me Francis (No.10) — $26.00 / $5.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.3% | Place: 9.8% | Value: 0.86x
Why His last start at Mornington over 2450m was a 2nd by 0.8L, and a tempo that stays slow suits a horse who wants to settle and finish. A stayer with his form at this trip can run into a place at $26.00.
Race type: Maiden, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Bon Over the only leader on the map, and nobody else mapped to lead. Ninetyfiveinafifty from barrier 7 and Salarae from barrier 6 are the nearest pressure. The shape suits the back half, and Bambu Babe, Charleanor, Miss Verona, Lady Courrege and Teddy's Trotter are all helped. See No City from barrier 14 and The Old Man from barrier 13 are drawn wide and need cover or luck.
Punty read: Miss Verona is the bet. She's a backmarker from barrier 3, the shape helps her and the market hasn't cooled her despite her short price. Her last start was a 4th at Bendigo 1000m, beaten 6.8L, which is a run that doesn't tell the whole story. Damien Thornton rides and Ben, Will & Jd Hayes trains, with the trainer hot at 22% over the last 100 runners. The danger is Ninetyfiveinafifty, who sits handy behind a lone leader and has the best place rate on the card.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Miss Verona (No.14) — $4.80 / $1.90 🏆 5TH
Bet $15.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 21.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.02x
Why The shape is in her favour and she's a backmarker in a genuine pace. Two starts on the record, but she's got the jockey and trainer heat, and the way the race will be run in front of her looks made for a closer.
2. Ninetyfiveinafifty (No.10) — $4.50 / $1.90 🏆 3RD
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.1% | Place: 55.5% | Value: 0.77x
Why A real chance — but at $1.90 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. The Old Man (No.4) — $5.10 / $1.95 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.61x
Why Back from 114 days off, so the first-up record of 1 start with no wins counts against him, but the market has come from $16.00 to $5.10 and Ms G Johnstone's runners are worth respecting.
Roughie: See No City (No.3) — $11.50 / $3.10 🏆 10TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.91x
Why Drawn 14 in a 12-runner field, so he's the horse who must cover ground, but the market has come from $29.00 to $11.50 and he had a bumped and hampered run at Bendigo last time.
Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with two leaders contesting it: Kiss Me In Paris from barrier 8 and Duchess Xenia from barrier 3. Duchess Xenia is the one who has to get in first from the inside gate, and the shape hurts her. Dark Galaxy from barrier 10 is a forward runner who has to work to cross, but she sits handy and the shape helps. Hegely is also handy and the shape hurts him. Thundering Shadow from barrier 12 is a closer who needs cover.
Punty read: Dark Galaxy is the bet, and the each-way is the right way to play her. Her shape is right, the market has come from $7.50 to $5.10, and she's a 1000m horse who finished 3rd at Seymour over 800m last start. Dean Williams has her in fine order and the gear changes read as her trainer trying something new. Kiss Me In Paris is the danger from the lead, but she's never raced in front in a maiden of this class and it's all on her jockey. Xtra Black is the one to watch, a steady backer's horse at $4.90.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Dark Galaxy (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.50 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✗ Lost, net -$15.00
Prob 21.6% | Place: 56.2% | Value: 1.51x
Why She's handy from the gate and the moderate tempo fits her. The norton bit comes off first time and the lugging bit goes back on, and her sectional from Seymour over 800m shows she can finish. The market is backing her in and I'm happy to go along with it.
2. Kiss Me In Paris (No.13) — $4.50 / $1.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.6% | Place: 58.2% | Value: 0.88x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Xtra Black (No.7) — $4.90 / $1.82 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.79x
Why No career starts on the record and no map position, so I'm claiming nothing about how he'll run. Jockey Linda Meech and trainer D P Dwyer give him a fair shout, and the market has come from $8.00 to $4.90 on the back of it.
Roughie: Mighty Ruler (No.6) — $10.00 / $3.30 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.4% | Place: 24.2% | Value: 0.54x
Why No starts on the record and no map position, but he's drawn barrier 2 and wears ear muffs for the first time. A clean start and a bit of luck on the rail is the only path I can see.
Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow pace, with Honeyplotkin the likeliest to find the front from barrier 3. The shape helps Celestial Option, who sits midfield from barrier 9, and it hurts Honeyplotkin. Casamar sits midfield from barrier 1, and the shape is against him. Beast Fighter is a backmarker from barrier 7 and needs the race to come to him. Orthotropic and Some Chance are drawn wide and need cover.
Punty read: Casamar is the bet, and I'm backing him knowing the shape is against him. His market has come from $6.50 to $3.45, which is the biggest move on the card for a horse with real speed underneath him. Joe Bowditch is on him and the time sectional from Echuca was ranked 2nd. The danger is Beast Fighter, the horse with winkers on for the first time and a backmarker's trip to run.
Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)
1. Casamar (No.16) — $6.00 / $2.25 🏆 2ND
Bet $13.00 Win — ✗ Lost, net -$13.00
Prob 22.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.32x
Why He's the bet because the market has backed him hard and the time sectional at Echuca was 2nd best. Last start was a 6th at Echuca 1200m after a slow start, so the run can be forgiven, and a 2nd at Wangaratta 900m was a better effort.
2. Beast Fighter (No.1) — $4.20 / $1.80 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.86x
Why A real chance — but at $1.80 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Celestial Option (No.2) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.82x
Why The shape helps him, and his L600 and L400 are both ranked 2nd. He ran 4th at Avoca 1300m last start, with interference listed in the excuses, so he's a run-on candidate.
Roughie: Honeyplotkin (No.18) — $13.00 / $3.40 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.7% | Place: 28.2% | Value: 1.00x
Why He's the one who'll find the front if nobody else wants it, and Holly Durnan is on him. If the tempo is slow and he gets to lead, the market can't ignore him at $13.00.
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with six horses who could find the front, which makes it a messy one. Black Adam from barrier 8, Here Comes Wozza from barrier 7, Reel Latino from barrier 3, Shipstern Bluff from barrier 13, Ice Quake from barrier 6 and Bow Ribbon from barrier 1 all have a shot at the lead. Shipstern Bluff is drawn wide and has to work to cross. Bakersbend from barrier 14 is a back-half horse who needs cover, and Bucks Night from barrier 12 needs the same.
Punty read: Ice Quake is the bet. He's a handy runner from barrier 6, the shape helps him and his last start was a 2nd at Echuca 1400m over 0.4L. He won at this trip with his 1 win from 3 at distance, and the winkers go on for the first time. Damien Thornton rides and Simon Zahra has the trainer heat on, with the trainer 13% hot over the last 100 runners. The danger is Bow Ribbon, who has the speed to lead and the market has shortened him from $5.00 to $2.76.
Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)
1. Ice Quake (No.14) — $4.80 / $1.95 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P) — ✗ Lost, net -$10.50
Prob 20.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.98x
Why He's handy, the shape helps and he has 2 seconds and a win from 8 starts. The L400 is the fastest on his line, which tells you he's a horse who finishes. A 2nd at Echuca last start over 0.4L is a race he should have won.
2. Bow Ribbon (No.15) — $5.00 / $2.00 🏆 2ND
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Here Comes Wozza (No.7) — $8.20 / $2.45 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 34.8% | Value: 1.24x
Why 1 win from 21 for her career but she has 2 more placings and a track record of 1 win from 6 starts at Echuca. The shape helps her and the price is good value.
Roughie: Reel Latino (No.8) — $9.60 / $2.65 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.20x
Why If the lead tussle between the speed horses goes too hard he's the one who can pick up the pieces, and his last start at Echuca 1200m was a raced-wide run that doesn't reflect his ability.
Race type: Benchmark 56, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with two leaders, Ottalaus from barrier 12 and Blue Moon Summit from barrier 6. Ottalaus is drawn wide, so he has to cross to get the lead, and the shape is against him. Postwar, Lady Maestro, Bronco Revolution and Altruist are all forward runners who the shape hurts. Shelly's Legacy from barrier 1 is a backmarker, and the shape helps him.
Punty read: Ottalaus is the bet at each-way because he's won his last start, at Cranbourne over 1000m by 2L. He has 1 win from 5 at this trip and the market has come from $9.00 to $7.20. The shape is against him, and I've said so, but a horse who wins over this trip is worth the risk at each-way. The danger is Shelly's Legacy from the back, who won at Bendigo 1000m last time and is ranked for the closing shape.
Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)
1. Ottalaus (No.3) — $10.00 / $3.00 🏆 WINNER
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P) — ✓ Won, net +$82.50
Prob 14.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.46x
Why He won at Cranbourne 1000m by 2L last start and the market has backed him in. The shape is against him from barrier 12, but he's a horse who will push on, and he'll give you a run for the place.
2. Lady Maestro (No.13) — $3.55 / $1.57 🏆 4TH
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.51x
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Shelly's Legacy (No.5) — $8.50 / $2.90 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.20x
Why He's a backmarker from barrier 1 with a 1000m win last start at Bendigo, and the shape helps him. His track record is 1 win and 1 second from 5 at Echuca, and the market has him firming from $9.00.
Roughie: Laura's Gold (No.18) — $11.00 / $3.10 🏆 UNPLACED
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.11x
Why 2 wins from 22 for his career with 2 wins at this distance from 17 starts, and a 4th at Sale 1000m last start that was 3.6L from the winner. A backmarker from barrier 4 who can run into a place if the leaders go too fast.
That's the ticket as I struck it — the legs below are exactly what ran, no rewriting history.
Smart: 13,2 / 16,1,2 / 15,14,8,7 / 3,13,5,18 (96 combos x $0.4167 = $40.00) -- 41.7% flexi
The day's multi leans on three win legs across the card.
1 - Frozen Tide (Race 1, No.5)✓ Won — $1.96
2 - The Cunning Fox (Race 2, No.1)✓ Won — $2.08
3 - Casamar (Race 5, No.16)✗ — $3.45
Meeting Stats
Selections
Punty's Early Mail
Rightio Loose Units, Echuca on a Soft 6 with 11mm in the last 24 hours and seven races to get through, so grab a coffee, sit down and listen up. The early pace is slow on most of this card, the money has already moved on the short-priced leaders, and there are a few horses at big prices that the market is ignoring for reasons I can't see in the form.
MEET SNAPSHOT
Track: Echuca, 1000m to 3200m card
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Official going: Soft 6 (11mm last 24 hours, 13mm last 7 days)
Weather: Cloud clearing, 16°C, humidity 77%, wind 20km/h S, gusts 27.8km/h, feels like 13.1°C
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Race 1, Race 2 and Race 5 are Slow Pace. Race 3 is Genuine Pace. Race 4, Race 6 and Race 7 are Moderate Pace. Race 3 is the only race with a clear lone speed horse, so the rest of the card is about who gets the trail and who gets caught wide.
Jockeys to follow:
Damien Thornton: five rides today, including Miss Verona in Race 3 and Kiss Me In Paris in Race 4. Miss Verona's jockey record at this track is 10.6% (1019/9600).
Holly Durnan: four rides, with Honeyplotkin in Race 5 and Black Adam in Race 6 among them.
Jackie Beriman: four rides, including Shipstern Bluff in Race 6 and Sheila in Race 7.
Stables to respect:
Ms G Johnstone (5 runners): Mutsuhito, The Old Man, Wayne's Dream, Thundering Shadow and Here Comes Wozza, spread over Races 1, 3, 4 and 6. Five runners is a lot of ammunition for a stable that doesn't always fire.
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes (3 runners): Miss Verona is my top pick in Race 3 and this yard has Frewdamoss in the same race, plus Beast Fighter in Race 5. Miss Verona's trainer is 22% hot over the last 100 runners.
S Fliedner (3 runners): Frozen Tide in Race 1, Some Chance in Race 5 and Shipstern Bluff in Race 6. Frozen Tide is the shortest-priced horse on the card and this stable has the favourite's yard energy about it.
Punty's take: The speed on this card is thin. Race 1 has nobody mapped to lead or sit handy, so it will be a slow crawl with the backmarkers hoping for a fast finish. Race 2 is the same story, a 3200m staying test where nobody wants the lead and The Cunning Fox has to come from the back. Race 3 is different. Bon Over is the only leader on the map, which means he gets to dictate the tempo in a 1200m maiden, and the backmarkers like Miss Verona are set up to run down a genuine pace.
Race 4 is where the pace fight is. Kiss Me In Paris and Duchess Xenia both want the front, and Duchess Xenia has to get there from the inside gate, so the shape is in favour of the horses sitting handy behind them. Race 6 is a moderate pace with a lot of runners who could find the front, which makes it a messy one. Race 7 is a wide-open 1000m sprint where Ottalaus is out of the widest barrier and has to cross Blue Moon Summit to lead. Race 5 is the only place where the favourite's shape is against it, and I'm not hiding that.
What it means for you: The banker races on this card are Races 1 and 2, but only for the horse you're backing, not for the price. Frozen Tide at $1.96 is short and I'd rather take my money there than anywhere else on the day. Race 3 is where the value sits, with Miss Verona at $4.30 and the way the speed sets up.
Races 4 to 7 form the Quaddie, and it's the place to be a bit more aggressive. Keep the Quaddie tickets wide in Race 4 and Race 6, where the back half can land with a fast finish. Race 5 is the leg I'd protect with a bit of extra room, because Casamar is the horse the shape is against.