For all of Punty's tips for Hobart, head to https://punty.ai/tips/hobart-2026-11-03

Rightio Degenerates, Hobart is sitting on a Soft 5 with the rail at +11m Entire and eight races with plenty of tricky maidens and benchmarks to sort through. The sprints are where the chaos lives, the staying races are where the form holds up, and the first race at 2200m is the one that will test your patience. Grab a coffee, get your tickets in order, and let's get into it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Hobart, 1000m to 2200m card
Rail: +11m Entire
Official going: Soft 5 (Nil last 24hrs, 1mm last 7 days)
Weather: Overcast, 0.2mm rain since 9am, gusts 29.6km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: R1 Slow, R2 Hot, R3 Slow, R4 Moderate, R5 Hot, R6 Slow, R7 Moderate, R8 Genuine
Jockeys to follow:
Erica Byrne Burke: 8 rides, including Native Clan in R1 and Fiorente De Legend in R6, and she's 16.1% (266/1655) on Hobart tracks for the Native Clan line alone.
Jackson Radley: 8 rides, and Roxy Dancer in R2 is his best look at 10.6% (144/1357) here.
Sam Kennedy: 5 rides, and his J-HOT tag shows a 16.0% strike rate over his last 100 rides, which matters with Gee Gees Me Boy in R6 and Lawrenny Boys in R4.
Stables to respect:
J K Blacker (14 runners): the biggest team on the card, and Upheaval in R2 is the one to know from that yard.
S Gandy (11 runners): Miss Lyra in R4 and Alpine Thunder in R8 lead the way for a stable that loves a hit-out.
J F Luttrell (9 runners): Fiorente De Legend and Sir Jag both head into R6 and both have decent form lines.

Punty's take: Hobart's speed map is a split bag of lollies. Races 2 and 5 are Hot Pace affairs where the leaders are going to go hard and the closers will pick up the pieces, which makes them the chaos races on the card. Races 1, 3 and 6 look Slow, and that's where the backmarkers can get a bit of a free ride, so don't be surprised to see a late charge or two. Race 4 is Moderate with a contested lead from barrier 10 and barrier 1, and Race 8 is Genuine with Alpine Thunder as the only real leader. The banker-ish races are Race 4 and Race 7, but neither one is a stroll in the park.

What it means for you: Be aggressive in Race 1 with Native Clan and in Race 7 with Who's In Dev, because both have solid shape and form lines behind them. Protect yourself in Races 2 and 5, where the pace is hot and the favourites are the ones who have to work hardest. Race 6 is the race for the backmarkers, and Fiorente De Legend is the one who fits that shape best. The value is spread across the card, so don't chase the roughies with big money; take them small and let them do the talking.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - John Of Jane (Race 4, No.1) — $1.72
Why Lead from barrier 10 is a bit of a fight, but he has the sectional speed and the Launceston and Longford form to show he can hold the front when it counts.
2 - Who's In Dev (Race 7, No.3) — $2.45
Why The fastest sectionals on the card in the last 600 and 400, his form is clean, and the Moderate Pace doesn't ask him to do anything silly.
3 - Native Clan (Race 1, No.3) — $2.15
Why Midfield from barrier 4 in a Slow Pace race that suits the closers, and his Soft record is solid enough to make him the banker of the first race.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 9.06 = $90.60

Race 1 – Graham Family Funerals

Race type: Benchmark 68, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow pace on paper, and nobody maps to lead, so Johnnie Pinch from barrier 2 is the likeliest to find the front. Native Clan settles midfield from barrier 4 and the shape helps it, while Happy Clan and Da Silver Flash both get the back-half advantage. Regal Hunter and Sugoi Legend are the ones drawn wide who need cover to get involved.
Punty read: Native Clan is the bet, and I like him for the way he settles. He's been running on in the right spots, his Soft record is respectable at 2 wins from 16, and the trip is 2200m which suits a stayer type. Johnnie Pinch has the speed to lead but he's a 0.84 shape hurt and I'm not paying for that. Happy Clan is the one who can blow in from the back, and if this race turns into a sprint from the back, he's the danger.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Native Clan (No.3) — $2.15 / $1.37
Bet $12.00 Win, return $25.80
Prob 29.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.63x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 4 with the shape on his side, and his last start was a 2nd at Launceston 2150m in soft conditions. He's 4 wins from 10 at Hobart? No, he's 4 wins from 19 on Track, which is strong enough for me.
2. Johnnie Pinch (No.2) — $3.60 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 26.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Regal Hunter (No.4) — $4.40 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.96x Steady since tip
Why Drawn wide from barrier 6 but his last three starts are competitive, and his jockey has a 10.6% strike rate here. He's one to watch if the speed collapses.

Roughie: Da Silver Flash (No.5) — $9.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why His path to the win runs through a fast finish if the leaders stall, and the shape helps him more than most. He's a long shot, so keep it small.

Race 2 – Kevin Sharkie Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1000m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace with five runners mapping to lead, and four of them are inside barrier 11, so this will be a sprint for the front. Upheaval and Geegees Last Word are the ones the expected pace helps, and Roxy Dancer's leading shape is the one that gets hit hardest. Out Of Words and Thermal Miss are drawn wide and will have to work to get across.
Punty read: Roxy Dancer is the bet, and the way I see it he's the one with the inside draw and the most reliable finishing kick in this field. The shape is against him, I'm not going to pretend it isn't, but he won a Longford 800m race last start and has been running on in good style. Upheaval is the one I'd watch in the closers' lane because he has a strong finishing record in Hot Pace races. Thermal Miss has a tongue control bit going on for the first time, which could change her run.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Roxy Dancer (No.7) — $2.80 / $1.45
Bet $15.00 Win, return $42.00
Prob 20.8% | Place: 61.5% | Value: 0.58x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 1 and a last start win at Longford, so he can take the lead without a scrap. The Hot Pace is against him but he's won from the front before, so the shape doesn't kill him.
2. Bewicked (No.10) — $4.20 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Upheaval (No.3) — $7.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.11x Steady since tip
Why The Hot Pace suits him, and his sectional speed in the last 600 and 400 is the best in the race. He's drawn wide at barrier 12 which costs him, but the closing run is there.

Roughie: Thermal Miss (No.9) — $10.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.5% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.55x Steady since tip
Why Her path is a clean run from the front if the leaders go at each other and fall in a heap. The tongue control bit is new and that's the one thing to watch.

Race 3 – Aviso TAS Insurance Brokers Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with nobody mapping to lead or sit handy, so the backmarkers get the nod. Called Through is the one the expected pace helps most, and Warrior Son, Irish Bloom and Spinner are all drawn wide and need cover to get involved. Geegees Big Bird and Strip'n'tough get the shape against them.
Punty read: White Moon is the bet, and I'm backing him because the market has him at the top and the form backs it up. His last three starts have been run at Launceston and Longford, he's a 1st-up winner on Good, and Kelvin Sanderson is a jockey who gets the job done when he's given the chance. The one to watch is Rousing Levi who has the closing style and a Launceston finish that suggests he can finish. Alpine Drift is the one who looks like he'll be sitting handy from barrier 7 and could sneak in on the run.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. White Moon (No.11) — $3.00 / $1.40
Bet $13.00 Win, return $39.00
Prob 29.2% | Place: 62.9% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why Form at Launceston and Longford is consistent, he ran 3rd at Launceston 1600m last start, and his place record is the strongest in the field.
2. Rousing Levi (No.4) — $3.40 / $1.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.6% | Place: 47.7% | Value: 0.60x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.60 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Alpine Drift (No.1) — $7.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why He's had a 1st-up win at Hobart? No, I've got him 2nd at Launceston 1600m last start and a 1st at Longford 1400m before that, which is enough to keep him in the mix.

Roughie: Warrior Son (No.7) — $9.50 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker from barrier 11 in a slow race, so the path to winning is a swooping run down the outside if the front-runners stall. He's been beaten on his last two starts by interference, so he's due a clean run.

Race 4 – Dave Garnier Cup Hcp

Race type: Class 1, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with John Of Jane from barrier 10 and Lawrenny Boys from barrier 1 contesting the lead. Star Performer and Seditious Award get the shape advantage, while Lawrenny Boys and Miss Lyra are hurt by the pace. Celestial Glow and Seditious Award are back-half runners drawn wide who need cover.
Punty read: John Of Jane is the bet and he's the cleanest horse in this race on the numbers. He's a 1st-up winner at Hobart, won at Longford and was second at Launceston last start, so he's got the form. The shape is against him because he has to come across from barrier 10, but he's got the speed and the class to get to the front. Miss Lyra from barrier 3 is the one to watch if he falters, she's been running on at Launceston and has the speed to take advantage of a slow start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. John Of Jane (No.1) — $1.72 / $1.10
Bet $15.00 Win, return $25.80
Prob 35.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.61x Steady since tip
Why Clean form on Hobart and Longford tracks, the fastest sectionals in the field on time, and the class to hold the lead if he gets there.
2. Miss Lyra (No.5) — $5.00 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.5% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 1.17x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Olindah (No.6) — $5.50 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 60.5% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why Her last start was a 5th at Launceston 1120m and she's come off a 1st at Launceston 1200m. She's a 4kg-up horse who has the win form to be in the finish.

Roughie: Celestial Glow (No.8) — $31.00 / $4.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.9% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.91x Steady since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 12 with a blinkers change on for the first time, so if the leaders go flat out and the race stays wide, he's the one who can run on late.

Race 5 – Ladbrokes Switch

Race type: Benchmark 60, 1000m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace with three runners mapping to lead, including Buzzoffski from barrier 2. Eastcoast Miss and Rare Oro are the back-half runners the shape favours, and Tassie Power and Buzzoffski are the leaders who get hit by the pace. Volkanovski is drawn wide at barrier 11 and has to work to get across.
Punty read: Buzzoffski is the bet because he's the one in this race with the best form balance. He's a Hobart winner at 1200m, his sprint record is solid at 2 wins from 4, and the market has him as the most likely. He's going to have to lead against a Hot Pace, so I'm backing him to get the trip and the market to do the rest. The each-way line covers the place and the value on a horse with a place price like that is worth a punt. Valley Star is the one to watch if Buzzoffski fades because he's been sitting handy and has a closing record that matters.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Buzzoffski (No.5) — $2.75 / $1.40
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $31.13 if it wins ($20.63 win + $10.50 place), $10.50 if it only places
Prob 28.2% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why A 1st-up winner at Hobart and his form has been solid in Benchmark races. He's 5kg up from last start, which might hurt, but the market has him at the top of the list.
2. Valley Star (No.4) — $2.50 / $1.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.5% | Place: 58.6% | Value: 0.56x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Tassie Power (No.3) — $10.00 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.18x Steady since tip
Why He's a leader who will be pressured by the speed on either side, but his last start was a 4th at Devonport and the trip could suit him.

Roughie: Navarre River (No.1) — $10.00 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why He comes back from a 225-day spell with a 2nd-up win record and a closing run that can pick up the pieces if the leaders go too hard.

Race 6 – Olive Tree Catering

Race type: Benchmark 60, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow pace with nobody mapping to lead, but Kireina Marubrah from barrier 7 is the likeliest to find the front. Fiorente De Legend, Sir Jag and Thisismyturf are the ones the expected pace favours, and Sky Eagle is drawn wide at barrier 8 and needs cover.
Punty read: Fiorente De Legend is the bet and he's the one who fits this race shape best. He's a backmarker from barrier 2, and the Slow Pace suits a horse who can sit at the back and pick up the pieces. He's been running on at Launceston and his sectionals are the fastest in the field on the last 600 and 400. Gee Gees Me Boy is the one to watch, because he's an in-form horse with a closing run that suits the slow tempo. Kireina Marubrah from barrier 7 is the one I'd watch if the race is run at a crawl.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Fiorente De Legend (No.2) — $3.10 / $1.40
Bet $10.50 Win, return $32.55
Prob 25.2% | Place: 60.8% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why His last start was a 2nd at Launceston 1620m and he's come from the back in a Slow Pace race with the speed in his sectionals. The 2kg up is a small price to pay for his class.
2. Gee Gees Me Boy (No.1) — $4.60 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.62 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Kireina Marubrah (No.6) — $5.00 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why She's the one who will get the early lead if nobody else wants it, and she's a Launceston 2nd at 1600m last start with a strong jockey on her back.

Roughie: Thisismyturf (No.5) — $11.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.2% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a slow race that suits his shape, and his last start was a 1st at Launceston 1420m. If the leaders hang on, he's the swooper who can make the trip.

Race 7 – Oceana Health & Fitness Hcp

Race type: Class 2, 1420m
Map & tempo: Moderate pace with Last Tremble from barrier 1, Alisent from barrier 4 and Who's In Dev from barrier 5 as the likeliest to go forward. Bella Chinkara and South Georgia get the shape advantage, and Last Tremble is hurt by it. Toorak Lad, Pacific Witness and Mateus are drawn wide and will need cover to get involved.
Punty read: Who's In Dev is the bet, and I'm backing him because he's the cleanest horse in this race. He has the fastest sectionals in the field and the form is good across the board. The Moderate Pace doesn't favour him, and he's a 3kg-up horse, but the class difference is clear. Bella Chinkara and Toorak Lad are the ones to watch, with Bella Chinkara favoured by the shape and Toorak Lad sitting in the trail.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Who's In Dev (No.3) — $2.50 / $1.30
Bet $10.50 Win, return $26.25
Prob 32.0% | Place: 60.8% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why He's been running at Launceston with a 3rd last start and his sectionals are the fastest in the race. The Dist 7 record is 2 wins from 7 and the trainer is 17.1% at the track.
2. Bella Chinkara (No.6) — $5.00 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.82 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Toorak Lad (No.1) — $6.50 / $2.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.92x Steady since tip
Why He won at Launceston 1220m last start and has a 2nd-up winning record. He's drawn at barrier 9 which costs him ground, but the run is there if the leaders tire.

Roughie: South Georgia (No.9) — $17.00 / $3.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.0% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.68x Steady since tip
Why The shape favours him, and he's a 1st-up 0-2-0 horse who runs on late. If the speed collapses at the front, he has the closing kick to make the placings.

Race 8 – Winning Edge Presentation Goodwood Hcp

Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine pace with Alpine Thunder the only leader from barrier 6. Durazzo from barrier 1, Blameitontheboogie from barrier 7 and Prince Of Khatun from barrier 10 are the ones who will be pressuring the front. Zany Girl and Glory Mission get the shape advantage and Durazzo is hurt by it.
Punty read: Durazzo is the bet and he's the strongest horse in this race for my money. He's an 11-3-1 horse from 17 starts, his 2nd-up record is 3 wins from 3, and his jockey and trainer have good strike rates. The shape is against him because he's on the speed and the pace is genuine, but the class is the thing. Prince Of Khatun is the one to watch because he's been winning at Launceston and Devonport and has the form to stick around. Blameitontheboogie is the one who can make it hard if the leaders get bogged down.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Durazzo (No.1) — $4.50 / $1.65
Bet $10.50 Each Way ($5.25W + $5.25P), collects $32.29 if it wins ($23.63 win + $8.66 place), $8.66 if it only places
Prob 22.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why Class 7 record of 4 wins from 7 and a 2nd-up 3 wins from 3 is strong, and his barrier 1 makes him a realistic leader or handy runner.
2. Prince Of Khatun (No.6) — $4.60 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.8% | Place: 54.4% | Value: 0.86x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Blameitontheboogie (No.5) — $3.20 / $1.52
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.53x Steady since tip
Why 6 wins from 9 starts with a 1st-up record of 3 wins from 3 makes him a horse to respect, and his last start was a 2nd at Longford.

Roughie: Perspiration (No.3) — $12.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.4% | Place: 30.6% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why He's a backmarker from barrier 9 in a Genuine Pace race and his sectionals are the fastest on the card in the last 600 and 400. If the front-runners go flat out, he's the swooper who can pick off the placings.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R1–R4)

Smart: 3,2,4 / 7,10,3 / 11,4 / 1,5,6 (54 combos x $0.3704 = $20.00) -- 37% flexi
Punty's take: Race 1 and Race 3 are the tight legs with Native Clan and White Moon holding them together, Race 2 is a Hot Pace maiden that's wide open, and Race 4 is a two-horse fight. The minimum flexi for this type is 30 percent and this ticket sits above it at 41.7 percent, so it's a solid play if the first two legs land.

QUADDIE (R5–R8)

Smart: 5,4 / 2,1,6 / 3,6,1 / 6,1,5 (54 combos x $0.3704 = $20.00) -- 37% flexi
Punty's take: Race 7 is the tight leg with Who's In Dev and Bella Chinkara, while Races 5, 6 and 8 are open with Hot Pace, Slow Pace and Genuine Pace stories. This is a high-risk ticket with three open legs, and the 30 percent flexi floor is met at 37 percent, so it pays if the chaos stays in check.

BIG 6 (R3–R8)

Smart: 11,4,1,7 / 1,5,6,2 / 5,4,3,1 / 2,1,6,5 / 3,6,1,10 / 6,1,5,3 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
Punty's take: This is an entertainment ticket with 4500 combos and a 0.10 percent flexi floor, so it's a long shot and I'm only putting in $5 to keep the dream alive. Short-priced winners rarely pay on a ticket this wide, so treat it as a bit of fun rather than a real bet.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Blinkers go on first time for Geegees Ace
Blinkers are on for the first time and winkers come off in Race 4, and he's a backmarker with a Track record of 1 win from 4. Watch whether the change sharpens him.
2 - Rare Oro is getting backed hard
He's gone from $91.00 to $67.00 in the market and it's flagged as HEAVY money. I can't see the reason from the form, so I'll be watching it closely before the jump.
3 - Steel Shosha is the $126 bolter
He's a one-start maiden at $126 in Race 2 with a 10th last start at Hobart. If he runs on, the Hobart crowd will be asking "who's he?" for weeks.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Hobart's serving up a clean first race and plenty of chaos after that, so don't let the tricky sprints scare you off. Keep your stakes sensible, back the ones I've put my money on, and let the roughies be the cherry on top. See you at the track, you magnificent degenerates.