For all of Punty's tips for Collie, head to https://punty.ai/tips/collie-2026-10-24

Rightio Degenerates, Collie is on a Good 3 with a fine day, 0.6mm of rain since 9am and 41 runners spread across six races. This is a slow-tempo meeting with one honest pace race in the middle, so the winners will mostly come from the bloke who can see the speed setting up before the rest of the ring. Grab a pen, get the coffee in, and let's go through it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Collie, 1100m to 1990m card
Rail: True
Official going: Good (updated from Good 3) (0.6mm rain since 9am)
Weather: Fine, gusts 5.5km/h
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Races 1, 3, 4 and 5 are all rated Slow Pace, Race 2 is Genuine Pace with Our Degree the only LEADER on the card in that race, and Race 6 is Moderate Pace. Most of the early speed sits in the backmarkers and midfield, so the pace will be stop-start in the slow races.
Jockeys to follow:
Jessica Gray: 6 rides today, and she has Beats Of War in Race 6, the horse the whole back half of the card leans on.
Jason Li: 5 rides, including Che Figata in Race 4, a horse I'm putting money on.
Jessica Valas: 5 rides, and she has Norma Stars in Race 5 sitting out the back where the data says he's advantaged.
Stables to respect:
Aaron Pateman (3 runners): Mars Mission, Kingsley Town and Speak To Me, spread across Races 3, 4 and 5.
Kirsten Melis (3 runners): Cousin Mortimer, Wuigi and Teabiscuit, so they have a runner in the first race and the fifth.
B P Graham (2 runners): Asarka and Molly's My Pal in Race 6, both running in the same race.

Punty's take: Here's where the speed is at Collie. Race 2 is the only race with a real leader, Our Degree, and the maps say the early pressure sits on him and the on-pace group behind. The other five races look like slow-tempo affairs where the early speed is thin, so the horses that get a sensible run in the middle of the pack are the ones I'm most interested in. Race 1 has an angle that needs thought: the top pick is at the wrong end of a slow pace on the map, but the market and the sectionals are telling me he's the one to be on. Race 3 and Race 4 are the two I'd call the most competitive, with a handful of runners in each that could finish in the frame. Race 6 is the best-credentialed race on the card, with Beats Of War at the top of my list and a moderate tempo that doesn't scare me off him. Race 5 is the one with the most moving parts, with Side Show drifting and Super Saiyan being backed in from $14.00 to $9.50.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on the Race 6 win bet, because Beats Of War has the record in the right places and I'm not seeing a reason to talk him out of it. Race 1 is the one to watch for a surprise, because the top pick is a 0-from-3 maiden on a slow pace, so keep the stake exactly where the bet line puts it and don't chase. Race 2 and Race 4 are the protect-the-bankroll races, with Village Girl and Che Figata the only horses I'm staking. Race 5 is the value play on the card if Mavis Myrtle lines up as the numbers suggest, but I'm not going any bigger than the bet line. The Quaddie is a wide ticket and the legs in Races 3 and 4 are where the money leaks away, so treat it as a fun punt rather than the bread and butter.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - What Have You Done (Race 1, No.6) — $2.30
Why The market has been kind to him and the sectionals back up the price, even though he's a 0-from-3 maiden on a slow pace, so I'm willing to take the risk at this number.
2 - Beats Of War (Race 6, No.1) — $2.55
Why He's the most accomplished horse on the card with 6 wins from 42 starts, and he's the one I'd least like to see beaten in the last race.
3 - Village Girl (Race 2, No.2) — $2.80
Why She's had a good record at this kind of track and distance, and with Our Degree pressing up front, the on-pace group should give her a clean run.

Multi (all three to win): $10 × 16.42 = $164.20

Race 1 – Real Punters Play Here Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Cousin Mortimer (No.1) is ON-PACE, Once Bitten (No.5) is ON-PACE, Golden Syrup (No.4) is BACKMARKER, Amira Girl (No.2) and What Have You Done (No.6) are MIDFIELD, and Galactic Community (No.3) has no settling position in the data. Golden Syrup and Once Bitten are the advantaged pair on the pace, and What Have You Done is the one horse the slow tempo is against.
Punty read: The bet is on What Have You Done (No.6), and it's a $2.30 win ticket because the market has him at $2.30 and the sectionals give him the best case in the field. He's a maiden with no wins from three starts, and the slow pace isn't helping him, so I'm only putting money on him because he's cheap enough to justify the risk. Cousin Mortimer (No.1) is the danger. He's ON-PACE, has the fastest L600 and L400 sectionals in the race, and the market has him at $2.80. Once Bitten has been backed in from $41.00 to $26.00 in the market, which is the kind of move I'd want explained before I'd get on. Golden Syrup has blinkers on for the first time and is a backmarker with a slow pace, so he's one to watch only if the tempo collapses.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. What Have You Done (No.6) — $2.30 / $1.40
Bet $12.00 Win, return $27.60
Prob 40.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why Tongue tie goes on first time, the sectionals are strong, and the market has him at a price that makes the risk worth taking.
2. Cousin Mortimer (No.1) — $2.80 / $1.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 27.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.78x ▲4% since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Galactic Community (No.3) — $5.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why He has no settling position in the data, so he's a live chance with no clear path, and I'm leaving him out of the staking.

Roughie: Golden Syrup (No.4) — $17.00 / $4.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.8% | Place: 8.7% | Value: 0.64x ▼12% since tip
Why Blinkers go on for the first time and he's a backmarker in a slow race, so he needs the early speed to fall over and a run down the outside.

Race 2 – ACPH (Bm48+)

Race type: Benchmark 48+, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Our Degree (No.4) the only LEADER. State Of Fury (No.1), Village Girl (No.2), River Angel (No.3), Swift Streaker (No.5) and Schuhbeck (No.6) are all ON-PACE. River Angel, Our Degree and Swift Streaker are advantaged on the pace, and State Of Fury and Schuhbeck are the ones the pace works against.
Punty read: The bet is on Village Girl (No.2), $2.90 win, because she's the best all-round horse on this card at this distance and the market has her at $2.80 with a fair place chance. She's got 7 wins from 64 starts, and her good-track record is 6 wins from 42, so she's the one who handles the conditions on the day. Our Degree leads and has firmed from $10.00 to $9.00, but a genuine tempo can wear out a lone leader, so I'd rather be on the horse that sits just behind him. River Angel and Swift Streaker both have the pace in their favour, and they're the ones who can run her down if she gets stuck behind traffic. Schuhbeck has Concussion plates (front) off for the first time, but he's ON-PACE and the pace works against him.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.88 pool)

1. Village Girl (No.2) — $2.90 / place tote
Bet $11.88 Win, return $34.45
Prob 31.7% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.92x Steady since tip
Why The best record of the group on the going, a good first-up strike rate, and the on-pace position behind a leader that could run out of gas.
2. River Angel (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.8% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.63x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Swift Streaker (No.5) — $5.50 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.8% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 1.09x ▲10% since tip
Why He's advantaged on the pace and has enough form to be dangerous, but I'd rather have him to place than stake him to win.

Roughie: Our Degree (No.4) — $10.00 / $3.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.8% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why He's the lone leader in a genuine tempo, so if nobody comes to challenge him, he can steal the race from the front.

Race 3 – Hon. Mick Murray AM, John Bird OAM, Wanda Bird OAM (Bm56+)

Race type: Benchmark 56+, 1200m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Rodney Oh Rodney (No.4) is ON-PACE, Wuigi (No.6) is ON-PACE, and Weapons Hot (No.2), Mars Mission (No.3), Lost Gravity (No.1) and Storm Lord (No.5) are all MIDFIELD. Weapons Hot is the advantaged horse on the pace, and Lost Gravity, Mars Mission, Rodney Oh Rodney and Storm Lord are the ones the slow tempo works against.
Punty read: The bet is on Rodney Oh Rodney (No.4), $2.90 win. He's the horse with the best record in the race at this kind of trip with 5 wins from 26 starts, and his good-going record shows 4 wins from 21. He's ON-PACE with the pace working against him, but he's the one I trust in a field with few early leaders. Mars Mission (No.3) is the danger, with Tongue tie on again and a record of 6 wins from 48 starts. Weapons Hot (No.2) has the pace advantage and a combo with Tara Atherden and Cliff Howe that's won twice from four starts. Wuigi (No.6) is the roughie, and he's only got one win from eight starts, so he's a long shot in a race he needs to be lucky in.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.64 pool)

1. Rodney Oh Rodney (No.4) — $2.90 / $1.62
Bet $11.64 Win, return $33.76
Prob 25.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.75x Steady since tip
Why The best record of the group at this trip and a combo with Giaan O'Donnell and J J Enright that has been good for him.
2. Mars Mission (No.3) — $4.40 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Weapons Hot (No.2) — $3.70 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.1% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.74x Steady since tip
Why The advantaged horse on the pace with a strong record at the track, but there's no need to stake him here.

Roughie: Wuigi (No.6) — $20.00 / $4.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 2.6% | Place: 5.8% | Value: 0.52x Steady since tip
Why Cross-over nose band goes on for the first time, and he's got one win from his six starts at the trip, so he needs everything to fall his way.

Race 4 – Bet With Bet Loop Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Che Figata (No.2) is MIDFIELD and advantaged on the pace. Kingsley Town (No.1) and Helios Amigos (No.3) are ON-PACE, Hard To Top (No.5), Rhaenya (No.6) and Wyangle Ruby (No.7) are MIDFIELD, and Yoi Uma (No.4) has no settling position in the data. Kingsley Town, Helios Amigos and Wyangle Ruby are the ones the slow pace works against.
Punty read: The bet is on Che Figata (No.2), $2.60 win. He's the one the pace suits most, with fastest sectionals for both L400 and time, and he's a horse who gets the trip that keeps him in the race. He's got no wins yet from nine starts, so this is a horse I'm backing on the pace rather than form. Kingsley Town (No.1) is the danger, a horse with a combo with Kate Pateman and Aaron Pateman that has been strong at this track, and his place chance is better than his price. Hard To Top (No.5) has placed four times from 31 starts without winning, and he's a danger for the place. Yoi Uma (No.4) has ear muffs on for the first time, and with no settling position in the data, I can't tell you where he'll be.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Che Figata (No.2) — $2.60 / place tote
Bet $12.00 Win, return $31.20
Prob 26.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.68x ▲2% since tip
Why The pace suits him and he's had two placings from his nine starts, with the fastest L400 and time sectionals in the race.
2. Kingsley Town (No.1) — $3.80 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 24.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.92x ▲8% since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Hard To Top (No.5) — $4.80 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.2% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.87x ▲9% since tip
Why Four placings from 31 starts with no wins, so he's a place chance but not one I'd stake.

Roughie: Rhaenya (No.6) — $9.00 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.85x ▲6% since tip
Why She's a midfield runner with a combo with Jessica Gray and D R Couper that has produced a good strike rate, so if the middle of the pack opens up, she can sneak through.

Race 5 – Applecross Electrical And Testing Service Collie Sprint (Bm56+)

Race type: Benchmark 56+, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Norma Stars (No.7) and Novatorio (No.8) are the BACKMARKERS and advantaged on the pace. Speak To Me (No.1), Side Show (No.2), Teabiscuit (No.3), Super Saiyan (No.5) and Mavis Myrtle (No.6) are all MIDFIELD, and Speak To Me, Super Saiyan and Mavis Myrtle are the ones the slow pace works against.
Punty read: The bet is on Mavis Myrtle (No.6), $3.60 win. She's the horse with the most consistent sectionals in the race, the fastest L600 and L400, and she has a good distance record with 2 wins from 8 starts. She's been a midfield horse, and the slow pace works against her on the map, but I'll take that risk for the sectionals. Side Show (No.2) is the danger, and he's been drifting from $3.60 to $3.50, which tells me the market is cooling on him. Teabiscuit (No.3) has the speed rank to lead at a slow tempo, and with Kirsten Melis in the saddle he's a horse to watch. Norma Stars (No.7) is the roughie, with an advantaged pace and a firming price from $3.20 to $9.00.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.92 pool)

1. Mavis Myrtle (No.6) — $3.60 / $1.85
Bet $10.92 Win, return $39.31
Prob 24.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why The fastest L600 and L400 in the race, and a good record at the trip, so the slow pace is the only thing I'd question.
2. Side Show (No.2) — $3.60 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.0% | Place: 34.7% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Teabiscuit (No.3) — $3.20 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.6% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.56x Steady since tip
Why The speed rank says he can lead at this tempo, and his good-track record has been solid.

Roughie: Norma Stars (No.7) — $9.00 / $3.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 17.8% | Value: 0.71x Steady since tip
Why He's a backmarker on an advantaged pace, with strong L600 and L400 sectionals, so if the speed up front falls over, he can run down the field.

Race 6 – LJ Hooker Collie Cup (Bm64+)

Race type: Benchmark 64+, 1990m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Beats Of War (No.1) and Icandoit Onmyown (No.4) are ON-PACE, Worcester (No.8) is ON-PACE, Queen Nardi (No.2) is MIDFIELD, and Asarka (No.3), Land Of Fire (No.5), Macho Arquero (No.6) and Molly's My Pal (No.7) are all BACKMARKERS. Asarka and Land Of Fire are advantaged on the pace, while Beats Of War, Queen Nardi and Molly's My Pal are the ones the moderate tempo works against.
Punty read: The bet is on Beats Of War (No.1), $2.60 win. He's the best horse in the race with 6 wins from 42 starts and 4 wins from 31 on good ground, and his combo with Jessica Gray has won twice from 12 rides. The moderate pace sits against him on the map, but he's ON-PACE and the one horse who can take the lead if nobody else wants it. Queen Nardi (No.2) is the danger, with three wins and five placings from 29 starts, and a time sectional that's the fastest in the field. Icandoit Onmyown (No.4) is the on-pace horse who has firmed from $4.80 to $5.00. Molly's My Pal (No.7) is the roughie, and the map is a real disadvantage, so the only way he wins is if the speed is ridiculous and the leaders fold.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Beats Of War (No.1) — $2.60 / $1.25
Bet $10.50 Win, return $27.30
Prob 32.6% | Place: 70.0% | Value: 0.85x Steady since tip
Why He's the best horse on the card with four wins on good ground and a jockey who has ridden him well before.
2. Queen Nardi (No.2) — $4.80 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.74x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Icandoit Onmyown (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Firming from $6.00 to $5.00 and on the pace, so the market is starting to notice him.

Roughie: Molly's My Pal (No.7) — $11.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.0% | Place: 37.7% | Value: 1.10x Steady since tip
Why The map is against him, so he needs the leaders to burn out and a sharp finish from the back, which is the only path I can see.

SEQUENCE LANES

QUADDIE (R3–R6)

Smart: 4,3,2 / 2,1,5 / 2,6,3 / 1,4,2,5 (108 combos x $0.3241 = $35.00) -- 32.4% flexi
Punty's take: The Race 3, Race 4 and Race 5 legs are all three-deep trios with the wide-open look of slow-pace races, and Race 6 is the four-horse leg that keeps the whole ticket alive. The 32.4% flexi clears the 30% floor, but this ticket needs a $5 to $10 winner somewhere to pay well, so it's a wide, risky play and I'm treating it as entertainment on top of the main bets.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Super Saiyan has been backed in hard
His price has gone from $14.00 to $9.50 in the market, which is a HEAVY move, and he's a Jessica Gray ride in Race 5. If you're going to follow the money, that's the one to check against the card before the first jump.

2 - Asarka is the other heavy backing move
His price has gone from $34.00 to $21.00 in Race 6, and he's an advantaged backmarker on a moderate pace, which is the one thing that can make a big move make sense. Watch whether the market keeps shortening him.

3 - Speak To Me has changed his look
Tongue tie goes on for the first time and the winkers come off for the first time in Race 5, so it's a bit of a gear overhaul for a horse who has been placed in his past starts. Not a bet from me, but a horse to watch in the first few strides.

FINAL WORD FROM THE LOOSE UNIT LOUNGE

Six races, one good tempo race, and a Race 6 that I reckon the good horses will win. Keep the stakes honest, back the ones on the card, and don't let a Quaddie ticket talk you into a bad afternoon.