For all of Punty's tips for Riccarton Park, head to https://punty.ai/tips/riccarton-park-2026-10-24

Rightio Ratbags, ten races of soft ground at Riccarton and the speed is the story today. Nobody has fast early pace on the map in Race 2, Race 6, Race 8 or Race 10, so the tempo is going to be the first question every race asks. My staked horses carry the day's money, and the rest of the card is cheap entertainment.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Riccarton Park, 800m to 3000m card
Rail: Out 7m to 1000m then out 9m to WP
Official going: Soft 5 (updated from Soft 6)
Weather: Fine
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Race 1, Race 3, Race 4, Race 5, Race 7 and Race 9 all carry a Genuine Pace line, with a named leader in each. Race 2, Race 6, Race 8 and Race 10 are Slow or Moderate pace with no leader on the map, so those races will be decided by who gets a clear run late.
Jockeys to follow:
Leah Hemi: 9 rides today, with Sheza Professional (Race 7) and Sir Albert (Race 9) both carrying her name.
Floor Moerman: 8 rides, including Steadfast in Race 6 and He's Lucid in Race 10.
Wiremu Pinn: 7 rides, including Never Too Much (Race 1), Queen's Evidence (Race 4), Sword Of Stars (Race 7) and Hakkinen (Race 9).
Stables to respect:
M & M Pitman (14 runners): the biggest operation on the card, with Airpark Hustler (Race 5), Rosso (Race 9) and Proserve (Race 10) among the runners. Their trainer strike rate at this track is 10.9% (545/5014).
Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson (11 runners): Never Too Much, Balance Of Power, Queen's Evidence and Sword Of Stars are all theirs, and the trainer is running hot with a 27.0% strike rate over the last 100.
J & K Parsons (8 runners): Miss Starlight is the Race 5 leader for them, and the stable's trainer strike rate at this track is 11.1% (356/3205).

Punty's take: Riccarton on a Soft 6 with a fine day is a card of two halves. Races 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 9 all have a genuine pace on the map, so the speed is up the front and the leaders need to hold on. Race 1 has Admiralty as the lone leader and Never Too Much sits midfield with a very short price, which makes it the sort of race where the market is telling you something. Race 3 is the sprint for the two-year-olds with Coronada showing as the lone leader, and Super Accord is the one I like to win it. Race 4 has Charm Manhattan on the lead and I'm happy to chase it with Queen's Evidence on the pace just behind.

Race 2, Race 6, Race 8 and Race 10 are the ones where the map shows nobody keen to lead. Those are the races for patience and a bit of cheek. Race 2 is a 3000m staying test with a Slow Pace line and the map puts nearly the whole field at the back, so Balance Of Power is the one that gets the run I'm after. Race 8 has seven runners on the pace and five midfield, which is a much tidier shape, and Iron Hawk is the one I'm most sure of there. Race 10 is wide open with nothing above 15% on the numbers.

What it means for you: Be aggressive in Race 1 with Never Too Much at the short price, because the map and the trainer both back it. Protect yourself in the races with no leader, where the only real staked bets are Balance Of Power in Race 2, Iron Hawk in Race 8 and He's Lucid each way in Race 10. Race 7 is the one banker-type race with the 100,000 purse, and Sword Of Stars is the one I'm putting money on. Keep the stakes tidy on the rest of the card, because most of the other picks are a Top 3 for interest only and the place prices on them don't pay enough to justify a saver.

Race 1 – Pavilion Open Day - Check It Out Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Admiralty (No.6) the lone LEADER. ON-PACE: Reservoir (No.3), Dark Matter (No.5), Swiss Belt (No.10), The Peony Xpress (No.12). MIDFIELD: Never Too Much (No.13), Knight Guru (No.2), Cassius (No.1), Delight (No.7) and most of the rest. BACKMARKER: Heavenly Rose (No.15). Kemosabe (No.14) is UNKNOWN, so I'm not claiming a position for it.
Punty read: Never Too Much is my bet and it's not complicated. Barrier 1, sitting midfield on the map, Wiremu Pinn on board and a trainer combo that's been flying with the stable running hot at 27.0% over the last 100. The last start was 3rd at Phar Lap Raceway 1200m (2.1L), and on Soft 5 with two starts on soft, it's 0 wins and 2 placings, so it needs to handle the ground to win. The short price is short for a reason, but I'd rather have it than the field. Delight and Knight Guru are the ones to watch for a run into the place money, with Admiralty's leader's run the danger if nobody wants to take the lead.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Never Too Much (No.13) — $2.45 / $1.37
Bet $13.00 Win, return $31.85
Prob 32.4% | Place: 57.9% | Value: 0.79x ▲2% since tip
Why Barrier 1 and a midfield run keeps it out of trouble, and the stable and jockey combo has the momentum. Short price, but the one I'm backing.

2. Delight (No.7) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.54x ▼4% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Knight Guru (No.2) — $9.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why Carries 2kg more than last start, with a bumped-and-hampered excuse at Ashburton 1600m and a second at Riccarton 1400m in the last three starts. Worth watching for a place.

Roughie: Cassius (No.1) — $12.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 1 and a midfield run. If the pace collapses behind Admiralty, he's the one who can sneak down the rail, but he has to have the soft ground working for him.

Race 2 – NZB Airfreight Road To Jericho

Race type: Benchmark 82, 3000m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. No leader on the map. MIDFIELD: Vamos (No.2) and Balance Of Power (No.4). BACKMARKER: Prince Alby (No.1), Canheroc (No.3), Henry Thomas (No.5), Koyama (No.6), La Evita (No.7), Mcgrath (No.8), Lanikai (No.9) and She's So Reliable (No.10).
Punty read: Balance Of Power is the one I'm betting on because it's the most likely to be sitting handy when the pace wakes up in a 3000m test. Last start was 4th at Phar Lap Raceway 2200m (0.7L), and before that a 1st at the same track, so the staying form is real. It has gone up 6kg from last start, which is a question mark, but the trainer is hot and Hayley Hassman is on. Canheroc is the danger from the back, with a 19.7% win chance but a $5.50 price that needs a clean run. Henry Thomas is one to watch if the race turns into a sprint from the back.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Balance Of Power (No.4) — $2.50 / $1.32
Bet $7.50 Win, return $18.75
Prob 29.4% | Place: 56.3% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Midfield on the map and the best of the staying form on this card, so the slow run suits. Up 6kg from last start, but the stable is running hot.

2. Canheroc (No.3) — $5.50 / $1.95
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.08x ▼9% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.95 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Henry Thomas (No.5) — $6.50 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.7% | Place: 35.7% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why Carries 4kg less than last start and has a fastest time sectional on the record. It's a backmarker, so he needs the pace to come to him.

Roughie: Vamos (No.2) — $10.00 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 29.2% | Value: 0.84x ▲10% since tip
Why Midfield on the map and up 2kg from last start, with a 1st at Gore 2000m in the last start. If the slow run breaks up late, she's the one with the turn of foot.

Race 3 – Entain/NZB Insurance Pearl Series 2yo

Race type: Open, 800m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Coronada (No.4) the lone LEADER. MIDFIELD: Super Accord (No.1). BACKMARKER: Van Maison (No.2) and Little Weapon (No.10). UNKNOWN: Pyronic (No.3), Reina De Fuego (No.5), Camp Forte (No.6), Denny's Delight (No.7), False Queen (No.8), Hot Gossip (No.9) and Lucksonyourtable (No.11).
Punty read: Super Accord is my bet. It has two-year-old sprint form with a second at Riccarton 800m (0.1L) last start and the sectional time was the fastest on the card. Barrier 1 and midfield on the map, so it's got room to move without getting bailed up. Coronada is the danger on the lead with the same last-start run and a 1st at the same track, so if it gets an uncontested lead, it's the one to beat. Van Maison is the one to watch from the back after a 4th at Riccarton last start, but it needs more pace to run down.

Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)

1. Super Accord (No.1) — $4.00 / $1.70
Bet $6.50 Win, return $26.00
Prob 23.8% | Place: 53.9% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why Barrier 1 and midfield, with the fastest sectional on the card and a placing at this track last start. Trainer and jockey combo is in form.

2. Coronada (No.4) — $4.00 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.78x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Van Maison (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.8% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker on the map with a 4th at Riccarton last start. He needs a fast run through the middle of the race to make up ground.

Roughie: Denny's Delight (No.7) — $12.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.77x ▲25% since tip
Why Jasmine Fawcett and the trainer combo is decent. Unknown map position, so the path is a clean run out of the gates and a late swoop.

Race 4 – Cup Week Tickets Selling Fast

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Charm Manhattan (No.1) the lone LEADER. ON-PACE: The Charm (No.5), Queen's Evidence (No.7), Willit (No.8), Dorothea (No.9), Lilly (No.11), Offline (No.12), Full Cream (No.15), Eastandwest (No.17). MIDFIELD: Wren (No.10), Overstate (No.13), Paper Moon (No.14), Knockingatthedoor (No.18). BACKMARKER: Ogun (No.2), The Big Picture (No.4), Dostee (No.16), Thunderfist (No.19).
Punty read: Queen's Evidence is the staked horse and I like the way it's set up. On-pace behind the lone leader, Wiremu Pinn on board and the stable running hot. Last start was 5th at Phar Lap Raceway 1200m (2.4L), so the form is close. The weight warning is 1 from 5 at 55-56kg against 0 from 5 at heavier, so it's a question for the handicapper, but the price is short enough and the trip is right. Lilly is the one watching for the place with the market moving from $10.00 to $7.50 and a fast time sectional. Charm Manhattan wants to lead and the big price is a danger on that front.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Queen's Evidence (No.7) — $3.70 / $1.65
Bet $10.00 Win, return $37.00
Prob 18.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why On-pace behind the leader, the trainer is running hot and the jockey is on a roll. Hits the line in the right spot if the leader gets run down.

2. Lilly (No.11) — $7.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Paper Moon (No.14) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.60x Steady since tip
Why First-up after 149 days off with a 1st-up record of 2:0-0-0 on file. Midfield and a trainer running hot, so it deserves respect.

Roughie: The Big Picture (No.4) — $9.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.3% | Place: 28.6% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker that has been bumped and raced wide in recent starts. If the speed fizzles up front, the big finishing kick is the way it wins.

Race 5 – Helston & Associates

Race type: Benchmark 75, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Miss Starlight (No.10) the lone LEADER. ON-PACE: Airpark Hustler (No.2), Hey Now (No.3), Hasstobefast (No.4), Honor The Name (No.5), Cool Aza Rene (No.6), Hakadecree (No.8), Mad Max (No.9) and Blushing (No.14). MIDFIELD: Miss Ziggy (No.7), Pure Artist (No.11), Casino (No.12), Larius Lacus (No.13) and Phazed (No.15).
Punty read: Honor The Name is the one I'm staking and the reason is the track form. It has won at Riccarton 1200m twice in the last three starts, with a 3rd at Phar Lap Raceway 1200m last start (0.6L). On-pace from barrier 12, which is a tough draw, and Tom Wigram is aboard. The soft ground is a question because it has 0 wins from 5 on soft, and the weight warning is 3 from 8 at 53-56kg. The market has the money coming, going from $7.50 to $5.00. Miss Starlight leads and the danger is that the speed holds up through the straight.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)

1. Honor The Name (No.5) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet $7.00 Win, return $35.00
Prob 13.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.70x Steady since tip
Why Track form at Riccarton over 1200m and the market backing it. The soft going is the question but the rest of the profile fits.

2. Miss Starlight (No.10) — $7.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.83x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Cool Aza Rene (No.6) — $7.50 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 27.1% | Value: 0.77x Steady since tip
Why On-pace from barrier 11 and the trainer is running hot. The excuse was bumped and hampered at Riverton, so the form is better than the last run shows.

Roughie: Airpark Hustler (No.2) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 24.5% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why The market has cut from $18.00 into $10.00, which is heavy money. Last start was 8th at Riccarton 1200m, held up and bumped, so the run it needs is a clear one.

Race 6 – Remembering Ron Williamson

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace with no leader on the map. ON-PACE: One True King (No.5), La Voisin (No.11), New Beginning (No.12) and Voguish (No.16). BACKMARKER: Steadfast (No.2), Chino's Boy (No.3), Corcaigh (No.10) and Graffiti Artist (No.15). MIDFIELD: Kids Got Gears (No.1), Miraqua (No.4), Pequot (No.6), Hold'em Ransom (No.7), Vendabelle (No.8), Cambalache (No.9), Grouse (No.13), Flat Stanley (No.14) and Redana (No.17).
Punty read: Steadfast is the each way and I like it because the race looks set for a tactical run. The trip is right with a 2nd at Hawera 1600m (1.4L) last start and a 1st at Awapuni Synthetic 1700m before that. Barrier 15 is wide, so it has to get a run from the back, but the jockey is Floor Moerman and the Moderate Pace suits a horse that can finish late. Graffiti Artist is the danger from barrier 2 with a 3rd at Ashburton 1600m last start and the market heavy from $5.50 into $3.40. One True King is the one from the front half who can hold the pace.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Steadfast (No.2) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet $7.50 Each Way ($3.75W + $3.75P), collects $26.25 if it wins ($18.75 win + $7.50 place), $7.50 if it only places
Prob 15.1% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.76x ▼8% since tip
Why Backmarker in a moderate-pace race with a finishing kick and a top-two effort last start. The each way is the right way to play a wide draw.

2. Graffiti Artist (No.15) — $3.40 / $1.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.39x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.

3. One True King (No.5) — $8.50 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.98x Steady since tip
Why On-pace from barrier 4 and a 2nd at Phar Lap Raceway 1600m last start (0.3L). Trainer is running hot, but the weight warning says 1 from 5 at 56-57kg.

Roughie: Corcaigh (No.10) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.03x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker with a 2nd at Ashburton 1400m (0.1L) last start. Needs the race to be run at a moderate tempo for the late run to land.

Race 7 – War Decree Stakes

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Sheza Professional (No.8) the lone LEADER. ON-PACE: Zafar (No.1) and Luminosity (No.11). MIDFIELD: So Fear (No.5), Sword Of Stars (No.9), Pure Story (No.10) is BACKMARKER. BACKMARKER: Cool As Bling (No.2), Omega Sprint (No.3), Mongolian Mac (No.4), Final Time (No.6), Platinum La Danse (No.7) and Pure Story (No.10). MIDFIELD: Sword Of Stars (No.9) and So Fear (No.5).
Punty read: Sword Of Stars is the one I'm backing in the feature. Midfield on the map from barrier 4, a 1st at Phar Lap Raceway 1200m (1.9L) last start and a record of 1 win and 2 placings from 5 starts. Wiremu Pinn is aboard and the stable and jockey combo has the momentum with a 27.0% strike rate over the last 100. The market has him at $3.60, which is short, but he's the horse that's been running on at the right tempo. So Fear is the one I'd want to see on the pace behind Sheza Professional, with a 1st at Hastings 1400m last start. Sheza Professional leads and the danger is it sets a soft tempo that suits the backmarkers.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.00 pool)

1. Sword Of Stars (No.9) — $3.60 / $1.65
Bet $10.00 Win, return $36.00
Prob 18.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.67x ▲3% since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 4 with a 1st last start, and the trainer and jockey are running hot. It has the form and the freshness to win this.

2. So Fear (No.5) — $4.80 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.2% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.78x ▼4% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.85 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Sheza Professional (No.8) — $8.00 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.4% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 1.07x ▲6% since tip
Why Lone leader from barrier 3 with a 1st at Riccarton 1400m last start. The stable is in form and the pace is its to set.

Roughie: Cool As Bling (No.2) — $9.50 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 28.0% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker with two placings in its last three starts at Riccarton and Ashburton. It needs the lead to come back to the field.

Race 8 – TAB Mile Prelude

Race type: Open, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace with no leader on the map. ON-PACE: Jon Ol Rocco (No.2), Witz End (No.3), Toa Haka (No.6), Brave Spirit (No.8), Iffididit (No.9), Master Brutus (No.11) and Dream Of The Moon (No.12). MIDFIELD: Mystic Park (No.1), Tumuch (No.4), Iron Hawk (No.5), Third Decree (No.7) and Dimaggio (No.10).
Punty read: Iron Hawk is the bet and it's the one I'm most sure of on this card. Midfield from barrier 2 with Triston Moodley riding and a 3rd at Ashburton 1200m (4.2L) last start. Its best soft form is 7 starts with 1 win, 2 seconds and 2 thirds, and it's won at Riccarton 1200m. The market has firmed from $2.70 into $2.35, so the money is coming for it. The weight is 3kg down from last start. Witz End is the one from on-pace in a stylish run and the danger, having placed at Riccarton 1400m last start with a 6-wins-from-15 record at 1400m-plus. Mystic Park is the other midfield runner with a 1st at Riccarton last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Iron Hawk (No.5) — $2.35 / $1.32
Bet $15.00 Win, return $35.25
Prob 28.5% | Place: 50.9% | Value: 0.67x ▼4% since tip
Why Midfield with the market firming and a 3kg drop in weight. A close finish at Ashburton last start shows it's sharp.

2. Witz End (No.3) — $7.50 / $2.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.15x ▲7% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.60 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Mystic Park (No.1) — $6.00 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.6% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.82x Steady since tip
Why Midfield with a 1st at Riccarton 1400m last start and a strong track record at the course. Market heavy from $10.00 into $6.00 and worth watching.

Roughie: Iffididit (No.9) — $14.00 / $3.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.5% | Place: 31.8% | Value: 1.33x Steady since tip
Why Back from 181 days off with a first-up record of 3:2-1-0. On-pace, so the pace suits, and the price has drifted from $11.00 into $14.00.

Race 9 – Pavilion Now Open Spring Classic

Race type: Open, 2000m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Riviera Rebel (No.1) the lone LEADER. ON-PACE: Rosso (No.3) and Lombardi (No.12). MIDFIELD: Sir Albert (No.2), Noble Knight (No.5), In Vegas (No.7), Smiling Eyes (No.8), Unleash The Beast (No.10), Court Of Appeal (No.11) and Peachy Keen (No.13). BACKMARKER: Quintabelle (No.4), Matscot (No.6), Star Ballot (No.9), Ocean Light (No.14) and Hakkinen (No.15). Indie Ardie runs in Race 10 and is not part of this pace picture.
Punty read: Hakkinen is the bet and the record backs it. Backmarker from barrier 7 with Wiremu Pinn on board, a 1st at Riccarton 1600m last start (2.9L) and a 1st at Riccarton 1400m before that. The stable and jockey combo is hot at 20.1% and the market has him at $2.35, so the money is clearly with it. The distance is 2000m and the race has the pace from the front so the closing run should come into play. Sir Albert is the one that was second at Ashburton 1600m last start and the danger in the straight, with Riviera Rebel the leader to make it a genuine test.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Hakkinen (No.15) — $2.35 / $1.32
Bet $12.00 Win, return $28.20
Prob 26.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.61x ▲2% since tip
Why Two wins in its last two starts at Riccarton, with a backmarker's run that suits a genuine pace. The price is short, but the form is the form.

2. Sir Albert (No.2) — $9.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.9% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.98x ▼6% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $3.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.

3. Court Of Appeal (No.11) — $11.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why Second at Riccarton 2000m last start (0.1L) and the trainer is running hot. The distance suits and the midfield spot is a good one.

Roughie: Rosso (No.3) — $11.00 / $3.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.3% | Place: 27.4% | Value: 0.91x ▼18% since tip
Why Second at Phar Lap Raceway 2200m last start (0.3L) and up to the trip. Weight is 3kg down from last start, so it's a live roughie if the front runners cook.

Race 10 – Racecourse Hotel & Motor Lodge

Race type: Benchmark 75, 1800m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace with no leader on the map. ON-PACE: Miss Seth (No.7), Powerofpersuasion (No.8), Quisiera (No.11) and Full Of Gusto (No.14). MIDFIELD: Proserve (No.1), Indie Ardie (No.3), Super Rosa (No.4), Wanderin Spelle (No.5), Enterprise Gem (No.6), Beaver Fever (No.10), Tetbury (No.15) and Mineshaft (No.16). BACKMARKER: He's Lucid (No.2), Red Star Bella (No.12) and Winter Blaze (No.13). She's So Reliable runs in Race 2 and is not part of this pace picture.
Punty read: He's Lucid is the each way and it's an honest bet at the price. Backmarker in a moderate-pace race, with Floor Moerman riding and an 8th at Hastings 1600m last start (7.6L) that the form lines say it can improve on. It's got 2 wins from 23 starts and the market is firming from $8.00 into $7.00. The soft ground has been kind to it at 1 win and 1 placing from 7. Indie Ardie is the one that's heavily backed from $13.00 into $8.00 and it's midfield, so the place looks strong. Wanderin Spelle is the favourite at $6.50 and the one that could sit in the best spot.

Top 3 + Roughie ($3.50 pool)

1. He's Lucid (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.50
Bet $3.50 Each Way ($1.75W + $1.75P), collects $16.63 if it wins ($12.25 win + $4.38 place), $4.38 if it only places
Prob 13.5% | Place: 33.6% | Value: 0.95x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker that is firming in the market, with a fast-finishing style that suits a moderate tempo. The each way gives us the place insurance.

2. Indie Ardie (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.2% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.98x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.

3. Wanderin Spelle (No.5) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.2% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why Favourite and midfield with a 2nd at Ashburton 1400m (0.2L) last start. Three placings from four starts on soft.

Roughie: Quisiera (No.11) — $11.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.0% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why On-pace and a 1st at Phar Lap Raceway 1600m last start (0.3L). Up in trip and carrying the form, so it's the one for a late sting.

SEQUENCE LANES

No pre-built sequence tickets were supplied for today, so there are no quaddie or Big 6 tickets in this mail.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Heavy money on Iron Hawk
The market has Iron Hawk firming from $2.70 into $2.35, and it's the top pick in Race 8. Worth watching for the close of betting.

2 - Honor The Name's soft record
Honor The Name has 0 wins from 5 on soft, but it has 3 wins from 8 at 53-56kg is a warning on the weight form. It's got the track form at Riccarton 1200m, so the question is the ground.

3 - Hakkinen's rise
Hakkinen ran 99th at Te Rapa 1600m back on 2026-05-02. Since then it has won at Riccarton 1400m and Riccarton 1600m. Nobody sees a 99th coming back to win two.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Ten races, a soft track and one very short-priced favourite in the first race. If you're going to back Never Too Much, back it with your eyes open and your wallet sensible. Hit me up after the last race and tell me how the Pavilion Open Day went.