For all of Punty's tips for Fannie Bay, head to https://punty.ai/tips/darwin-2026-10-24

Rightio Legends, Fannie Bay on a Good track with fine weather and five races from 1100m to 1600m, and the speed is sitting in the middle of the card rather than up front. Race 1 and Race 5 are slow-pace races where the backmarkers are going to be nervous. Races 3 and 4 have a genuine leader each. Race 2 is the moderate one where the closers can get a go. Grab a coffee, this one rewards the blokes who actually read the form.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Fannie Bay, 1100m to 1600m card
Rail: True (no rail position given in the data)
Official going: Good (Rainfall: Nil)
Weather: Fine, live gusts 18.5km/h
Early lane guess: Unknown pre-race, watch the first two.
Tempo profile: Race 1 is slow, Race 2 is moderate, Race 3 and Race 4 are genuine with a clear leader each (Genetic Freak and Debating), and Race 5 is slow. Only Race 2 has two leaders in the same race, and that's Physical Graffiti and All Inclusive.
Jockeys to follow:
Jarrod Todd: Five rides on the card including Order Online in Race 2 and Fury in Race 5, both of which are on my staked list. He's 12.7% at this track from 543 rides.
Jessica Booth: Four rides, and she's on Debating in Race 4, the leader in a genuine pace. She's 18.0% from her last 100 rides, which is hot.
Billy Cray: Five rides, including Prince Of Sparta in Race 1, who is my top pick there. Worth knowing he's also on Ankle Rolex in Race 2 and Barocco Bar in Race 5.
Stables to respect:
G Clarke (6 runners): Order Online, Physical Graffiti, All Inclusive, Field Of Flutes, Pafitis and Fury. Six of them, and two are the leaders in Race 2 so the stable has its hands on the speed in that race.
Tommy Logan (6 runners): Jumping Power Two, Mods, Gunnie Gunfighter, Zoutara, Si Senora and Bon's Your Back. Spread across three races, so the stable is hard to ignore.
Philip Cole (5 runners): Brave Heritage, Milk Foam, Kalimna Views, Field Of Praise and Sassy Abbey. The Brave Heritage ride in Race 1 is the one I'm watching for a roughie.

Punty's take: Race 1 is a slow-run maiden with nobody marked as a genuine leader, which means the field is going to sit and wait. That suits Prince Of Sparta, who I make the top of the list and who sits midfield. Race 2 is the one where the speed is in the middle of the bunch: two leaders and two on-pace types in Cavendish and Jumping Power Two. That shape gives Order Online a real chance to run them down from the back. Race 3 has Genetic Freak in front on his own, and the question is whether anyone can chase him down in a seven-runner field. Race 4 is the most open race on the card, with Debating up front and Predicting and Gunnie Gunfighter sitting just behind him. Race 5 is slow again, and that's the wrinkle: the best finishers are down the back, so the pace has to be right for them.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on the two staked winners at the front of the card (Prince Of Sparta and Order Online) and treat the Big 3 as the spine of the day. Race 3 and Race 5 are the two I'd call chaos-leaning for anyone wanting to hunt a bigger price, so keep the stakes modest and let the short-priced winners do the work. The place prices on the second and third picks in most races don't pay enough to be worth a saver, so I've left them as No Bets. Protect your bankroll by sticking to the staked picks and the Big 3 multi, and only chase the roughies if you're happy to lose the lot.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Order Online (Race 2, No.1) — $3.40
Why The Jarrod Todd closer in a moderate pace with two leaders in front of him. Last three starts read 2nd, 2nd, 1st and he's won here at Fannie Bay before. Hard to get away from at a short price.
2 - Fury (Race 5, No.2) — $3.10
Why Backmarker in a slow pace is the worry, but his sectionals are the fastest over the last 600m and last 400m, and he's won his last two at this distance. If the race stays slow he's got the kick to finish it off.
3 - Prince Of Sparta (Race 1, No.5) — $3.80
Why Top of the rankings, midfield in a slow-run maiden where nobody's gunning for the front. Not a flashy form line, but he's the most likely winner in a race that suits him.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 40.05 = $400.50

Race 1 – Book Melbourne Cup Day At DTC Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1300m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Nobody in this field is marked as a leader. MIDFIELD: Brave Heritage, Opulent Oscar, Prince Of Sparta, Lady Fireball. ON-PACE: Long Reign. BACKMARKER: Macaverty, Perfect Link, Milk Foam, My Luna. Lady Fireball is the one the pace helps (Map Factor 1.12), while Perfect Link and Long Reign are the ones it works against.
Punty read: Prince Of Sparta is the bet, and it's a slow-run maiden he's midfield in, which is exactly where I want him. He's the top of my numbers at 21.6% and the market has him at $3.80. The form line is ugly on paper (5th, 5th, 5th in his last three starts, and he's up 4kg from last start), but nobody else in the race is clearly better and the pace suits him to sit in the thick of it. Billy Cray has him, and Chloe Baxter trains him, with the two together 2 wins from 5 rides. The danger is Opulent Oscar, who's midfield, has the cross-over nose band on for the first time, and has no wins from 10 starts (though he's got plenty of thirds). Lady Fireball is the one the pace helps and she's drifting from $6.00 to $7.50. Long Reign is 161 days off with ear muffs and a nose roll on first time, and the pace works against him.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Prince Of Sparta (No.5) — $3.90 / $1.62
Bet $13.00 Win, return $50.70
Prob 21.6% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a slow maiden and the best numbers on the card for this race. He's been close without winning but the slow pace and the market backing him make him the one to be on.
2. Opulent Oscar (No.3) — $6.50 / $2.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.9% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.30 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Perfect Link (No.4) — $4.80 / $1.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a slow pace is a tough ask, and the pace is working against him (0.76). His sectionals are sharp, so if the race is run fast in the closing stages he could hit the frame.
Roughie: Brave Heritage (No.1) — $10.00 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.6% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.76x ▲5% since tip
Why Midfield from barrier 9 and his last start was a 6th after a slow start. He's won no races on good from 10 starts, so the path is a slow pace that leaves him a sit-and-pounce run. Needs a lot to fall right.

Race 2 – NT News Hcp (64)

Race type: Restricted 64, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. LEADER: Physical Graffiti, All Inclusive. ON-PACE: Cavendish, Jumping Power Two. BACKMARKER: Order Online, Ankle Rolex, Kalimna Views. Crazy Brave is UNKNOWN. Cavendish and Jumping Power Two are the pace-advantaged runners.
Punty read: Order Online is the bet, and he's the closer I want in a moderate pace with two leaders in the race. He's the top of the numbers at 24.5%, has finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st in his last three, and has 4 wins from 11 starts on a good track at the venue. Jarrod Todd is aboard and his combo with G Clarke is 24.1% from 273 rides. The danger is Cavendish, who's ON-PACE in the advantaged bracket and has 3 wins from 9 on good. All Inclusive is a leader drifting from $3.70 to $4.80, and he's 0 wins from 2 at 61-62kg, so I'm not following that. Ankle Rolex is backmarker with the pace against him, so he's not one I'd chase here.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Order Online (No.1) — $3.60 / $1.52
Bet $10.50 Win, return $37.80
Prob 24.5% | Place: 59.1% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why The best closer in the race on a moderate pace, and the leaders are going to make the front side honest. Form is clean and he's got the cheapest price to lean on.
2. Cavendish (No.2) — $5.00 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.3% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.87x ▲4% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. All Inclusive (No.5) — $5.50 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.73x ▲15% since tip
Why Leader from barrier 6 with the market cooling on him. He has the speed to take them along but the weight record is a warning, so I'm happy to watch him rather than back him.
Roughie: Crazy Brave (No.7) — $10.00 / $2.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.58x Steady since tip
Why The market's been hammering him, opening $17.00 and now $10.00 (HEAVY). He's 5 wins from 30 on good and bar plates come off for the first time. Paul Shiers rides and trains him, and his last start was a 6th after getting bumped. Path is a bit of luck in the run and a sharp market move that shows someone knows something.

Race 3 – Ladbrokes Tote Win +10% In October (Bm76)

Race type: Benchmark 76, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. LEADER: Genetic Freak. ON-PACE: Field Of Flutes (pace-disadvantaged). MIDFIELD: Cotehele, Tartaglia, Zing To Win. BACKMARKER: Bon's Pride, Atlantic Ocean. Seven runners, so only two places paid.
Punty read: Tartaglia is the bet, and he's midfield in a genuine pace where the leader is Genetic Freak and the on-pace type, Field Of Flutes, carries a pace disadvantage. He's 21.3% in my numbers and his sectionals are the fastest over the last 600m and last 400m. The gear change is winkers and cross-over nose band both off for the first time, and he's 99 days off with a first-up record of 6 starts, no wins. The danger is Genetic Freak, a leader who won 3 of 5 at 54-58kg and has had a 3rd at Fannie Bay last start. Field Of Flutes won her last start at this track but is pace-disadvantaged. Atlantic Ocean is a backmarker with a nose roll on first time and the best sectional finish in the field.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.20 pool)

1. Tartaglia (No.5) — $4.20 / place tote
Bet $10.20 Win, return $42.84
Prob 21.3% | Place: 34.7% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Midfield in a genuine pace with the fastest closing sectionals in the race, and the gear changes are a legitimate reason to expect a better run. Only two wins at 62kg is a flag, but the sectionals and the market price make him the one.
2. Genetic Freak (No.3) — $4.20 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.0% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Field Of Flutes (No.1) — $3.50 / $1.82
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.65x ▲9% since tip
Why She won last start at Fannie Bay 1100m and has 6 wins from 27 starts on good, but the pace is against her. If she's the one to kick the race off from the front half she's a danger.
Roughie: Cotehele (No.2) — $10.00 / $3.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.2% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 0.92x ▼10% since tip
Why Blinkers back on and pacifiers on first time after a 9th at Fannie Bay last start. Midfield and Stan Tsaikos rides, and the path is a midfield run late if the leaders fold and the blinkers sharpen him up.

Race 4 – Val Scott Memorial Hcp (58)

Race type: Restricted 58, 1100m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. LEADER: Debating. ON-PACE: Gunnie Gunfighter, Predicting, Pafitis, Red Extreme. MIDFIELD: Meet Me At The Bar, Warrego, Si Senora, Field Of Praise, Zoutara, Sassy Abbey. BACKMARKER: Mods. UNKNOWN: Damo Dayz. Predicting is pace-advantaged, while Pafitis and Mods are pace-disadvantaged.
Punty read: Debating is the bet. He's the leader in a genuine pace over 1100m, he's the top of my numbers at 17.5%, and he's won 1 from his last 3 starts with a 1st, 3rd and 4th before that. Jessica Booth is on, and she's hot at 18.0% from her last 100 rides, while Ella Clarke trains him. The danger is Predicting, who is ON-PACE in the advantaged bracket and has the speed to sit just off the lead. Gunnie Gunfighter is ON-PACE and his last start was a 7th after a slow start. Damo Dayz is UNKNOWN and his 1st-up record is 4 starts, 3 wins, so he can't be dismissed, with bar plates off first time.

Top 3 + Roughie ($6.50 pool)

1. Debating (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.70
Bet $6.50 Win, return $27.30
Prob 17.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.73x ▲5% since tip
Why The genuine leader in a field where the pace is honest and the jockey's hot. He's 4kg up from last start, which is the one flag, but the leader-in-a-genuine-pace is where the win comes from.
2. Si Senora (No.9) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.62x ▼8% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.00 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Warrego (No.4) — $7.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 42.9% | Value: 0.83x ▲15% since tip
Why Won last start at Fannie Bay 1100m and his sectionals are the fastest over the last 400m. Midfield with a closing kick, so if the leader gets run down he's in the frame.
Roughie: Predicting (No.6) — $9.50 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why Pace-advantaged ON-PACE runner with the market backing him from $11.00 to $9.00 (firming). He's 4 wins from 21 on good and he's a 1st and 1st in his last two wins around Fannie Bay. Path is that the leader gets run down and he's sitting right behind.

Race 5 – Pointsbet Hcp (70)

Race type: Restricted 70, 1600m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. No runner is marked as ON-PACE or LEADER. MIDFIELD: Bon's Your Back, Bruno Bruno, Barocco Bar, Villa Seventynine, New Enterprise. BACKMARKER: Fury, Convincebility. Villa Seventynine and New Enterprise are pace-advantaged, Bruno Bruno is pace-disadvantaged.
Punty read: Fury is the bet. He's a backmarker in a slow pace, which is a real worry, but he's the top of my numbers at 24.3%, has the fastest sectionals over the last 600m and 400m, and he's won his last two at 1600m. Jarrod Todd is aboard with G Clarke training. The danger is Bon's Your Back, who's midfield, won last start at Fannie Bay 1300m and is 2kg up. Bruno Bruno is midfield, pace-disadvantaged, but his last-start excuse was interference. Barocco Bar is 6kg up but his sectionals are the fastest in the field for time. New Enterprise is the roughie with the pace advantage behind him.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.16 pool)

1. Fury (No.2) — $3.10 / place tote
Bet $11.16 Win, return $34.60
Prob 24.3% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.75x ▲3% since tip
Why Backmarker in a slow pace is the only real risk, but the closing sectionals are the best in the race. He's 5kg up and the form at 1600m is strong, so he's the one to back to finish late.
2. Bon's Your Back (No.1) — $5.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.9% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.94x ▼4% since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Bruno Bruno (No.4) — $3.90 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.64x ▲3% since tip
Why A midfield runner who's been caught in the wrong part of the race and got interference last start. Pace is against him, but if the race is run to his liking he's a real chance.
Roughie: New Enterprise (No.7) — $20.00 / $5.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 3.2% | Place: 5.8% | Value: 0.64x ▼5% since tip
Why Pace-advantaged midfield runner with the market firming from $23.00 to $19.00. His last start was a 2nd by a length at 1600m, so he's already run one good race around here. Path is a midfield run in a slow race that suits a runner with the pace on his side.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Tartaglia's first-time strips
Winkers and cross-over nose band both come off for the first time for Tartaglia (No.5, Race 3). His first-up record is 6 starts, no wins, one second and one third, so those strips are worth watching.
2 - Crazy Brave's market move
Crazy Brave (No.7, Race 2) has opened $17.00 and is now $10.00, marked HEAVY, with bar plates off for the first time. Paul Shiers rides and trains him, so he's one to check if you're after a roughie.
3 - Jessica Booth is hot
Jessica Booth rides Debating (No.3, Race 4) at 18.0% from her last 100 rides, and that's the sort of jockey form that tends to matter when the leader has to hold his ground.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Five races, one good track and a bunch of backmarkers who need the pace to go their way. Back the staked horses, don't chase the roughies with money you need for the rent, and I'll see you at the bar after the last race.