PUNTY EARLY MAIL: Ellerslie (2026-10-24)
For all of Punty's tips for Ellerslie, head to punty.ai

Rightio Sickos, eight races on a Soft 5 at Ellerslie with the rail out 8m and a 1100m to 2200m card. Nobody is going to get a free lunch today, but the speed map gives us a few clear shapes to work with, so grab a pen and let's get into it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Ellerslie, 1100m to 2200m card
Rail: Out 8m
Official going: Soft 5
Weather: Cloudy, gusts 48.2km/h. Rain risk 45%+ at 14:00, 17:00, 20:00 and 23:00.
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two.
Tempo profile: Races 1 to 3 are all Slow Pace, so expect the sprint-ish starts to tick along and reward anyone who can get a sit. Races 4 to 6 are Genuine Pace with a clear leader in each (Biding My Time, Drops Of God, El Vencedor). Races 7 and 8 are Moderate, with no LEADER marked in either.
Jockeys to follow:
George Rooke: 8 rides today, including the Pick #1 ride on Cosmic Dream in Race 4 and Vegas Queen in Race 5. He is always going to be dangerous on a card this size.
Michael Mc Nab: 8 rides, spread across the card, including Top Shelf in Race 6 and Fly My Wey in Race 2. Consistent, busy, and nothing to fear on the track.
Joe Doyle: 7 rides, including Lady Iris in Race 5 and The Trendsetter in Race 8. Keep an eye on him in the outside lanes.
Stables to respect:
S B Marsh (11 runners): the biggest yard on the card, with Drops Of God's stablemates in Race 6 and a handful of runners in Race 8. Numbers always matter.
R James & R Wellwood (8 runners): Cosmic Dream in Race 4 is the one to respect here, with December in Race 5 and Excite in Race 8 also in the yard.
Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson (6 runners): Drops Of God in Race 5 (1 win from 1 at this start on the form line above) and Top Shelf in Race 6 are the two to watch.

Punty's take: This is a meeting where the speed sorts itself out, and the bankers are going to be found in the Genuine Pace races, not the sprint-ish Slow Pace openers. Race 1 is a bit of a lottery with no LEADER in the data and most of the field flagged UNKNOWN, so I'm not going to pretend I can see a pace shape there. Race 2 is a 2200m handicap in Slow Pace with Fly My Wey the one ON-PACE runner worth watching, and it's the race I'd want a sit on. Race 3 is a maiden where the market has been doing the heavy lifting. Money has been coming into Sumerian, Nitro Point and Delightful Dee, and Joyeuse has been heavily backed too.

The Genuine Pace races are where I'm putting most of my attention. Race 4 has Biding My Time sitting alone on the lead and a bunch of runners on the pace behind him, so the one I want is the one that can handle a lively tempo at the 1200m. Race 5 is a clear leader in Drops Of God, who has been the market's pick and is a monster on the form. Race 6 is a 1600m with El Vencedor on the lead, and that's where the market is taking Top Shelf at a very short price. Races 7 and 8 are Moderate, so both lean towards runners who can settle and sprint late, which is why I'm not chasing the back of the field in either one.

What it means for you: Be aggressive on the big-value runners where the numbers back it up, and protect yourself in the rest. The bankers on the card are Drops Of God in Race 5 and Top Shelf in Race 6, but both are short enough that you're not getting much for the risk. Race 4 and Race 7 are where I'd put the bulk of the cash, because the value there is real and the locked bets sit there. Race 8 is the chaos race with 16 runners and an open shape, so keep the stakes small and let the place bet do the work. The rain risk through the afternoon means the Soft 5 could drift, so don't be surprised if the sprint results get jumbled.

Race 1 – Speight's 2yo

Race type: Open, 1100m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Don Giuseppe is BACKMARKER and Aquila Veloce is ON-PACE. The rest of the field is UNKNOWN, so I'm not claiming a leader.
Punty read: Don Giuseppe is the one I'm putting the $8.80 on. He's a backmarker in a Slow Pace sprint, which is not ideal on paper, but the price is generous at $4.50 and his sectional time was rank 2 last start, with a third at Hastings over 800m. If the speed in this race sits up, a closer comes into the finish. Helena Bel is the danger at a shorter price with a sharp jockey aboard, and Aquila Veloce on the pace is the one who can run the race for you if the speed holds up.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.80 pool)

1. Don Giuseppe (No.1) — $4.50 / $2.15
Bet $8.80 Win, return $39.60
Prob 20.9% | Place: 36.2% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why Backmarker in a Slow Pace sprint, so he needs a fast finish, but the sectional time rank 2 and a third last start at Hastings over 800m make him the one to back at this price.
2. Helena Bel (No.7) — $7.50 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.16x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Aquila Veloce (No.4) — $4.80 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.9% | Place: 27.8% | Value: 0.67x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE, and the fastest sectional time last start at Hastings over 800m with a second, so she's the one who can lead the way if the speed sits up.
Roughie: Princess Grazi (No.5) — $4.40 / $2.05
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.2% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.62x Steady since tip
Why Her path is a clean run from a wide draw in a field with no clear leader, and HEAVY market support from $7.00 to $4.20 says someone knows something, but I can't see the reason in the data.

Race 2 – Auckland Co-Op Taxis Hcp

Race type: Open, 2200m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Fly My Wey is ON-PACE and Diomedes is ON-PACE. Santa Catalina and Trust In You are BACKMARKER, and Wolfgang, Son Of Sun and Notabadspillane are MIDFIELD. No LEADER is marked.
Punty read: Fly My Wey is the one I'm putting the $10.20 on. He's ON-PACE in a Slow Pace staying race, which is the best shape in the field, and he's come out of two seconds at Hastings and Ellerslie with a win at Ellerslie over 2200m. Son Of Sun is the one to watch because his form is good but the last few starts have been poor, with the medical excuse flagged twice. Santa Catalina is the closer who needs the race to fall apart, and the weight warnings on the back of him are a real problem.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.20 pool)

1. Fly My Wey (No.2) — $3.50 / $1.82
Bet $10.20 Win, return $35.70
Prob 24.8% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.87x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE in a Slow Pace staying race, two seconds in his last two starts and a win at Ellerslie over 2200m. The best shape and the best form in the field.
2. Son Of Sun (No.3) — $3.70 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 20.0% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.74x Steady since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Santa Catalina (No.5) — $6.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why BACKMARKER with a track record that's better than the market price suggests, and the closer needs a pace collapse to fire. Watch the weight, because the warning line is there.
Roughie: Diomedes (No.4) — $12.00 / $3.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 20.7% | Value: 0.90x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE from barrier 1, and his form string has a New Plymouth win in it. The path is the front-runners falling over in a 2200m slog, which is possible but not likely.

Race 3 – Trackside.co.nz Mdn

Race type: Maiden, 1400m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Capital Express is ON-PACE. Grocer's Girl and Hello Angel are MIDFIELD. Joyeuse, Elegante and Sumerian are BACKMARKER. Others UNKNOWN.
Punty read: Grocer's Girl is the one I'm putting the $9.50 on. She's been second three times on soft and at Ellerslie, and the market has her as the top pick at $3.20 for a reason. She hasn't won yet from five starts, which is the one thing that makes me nervous, but the placings are real. Capital Express is the danger, with two interference excuses in her last two runs and the 2kg rise noted. Joyeuse is the one with the sharp place numbers, but she's also a backmarker in a Slow Pace maiden.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)

1. Grocer's Girl (No.8) — $3.20 / $1.55
Bet $9.50 Win, return $30.40
Prob 22.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.73x ▼17% since tip
Why Three seconds from four starts on soft, and the last-start excuse was being held up in a 1400m race. Warrants the win money at this price.
2. Joyeuse (No.9) — $5.50 / $1.84
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.8% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.81x
Why A real chance — but at $1.84 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Capital Express (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.93
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.75x ▼8% since tip
Why ON-PACE and two interference excuses in her last two starts. The 2kg rise is a worry, but she's the one with the form to be in the finish.
Roughie: Nitro Point (No.3) — $14.00 / $2.78
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.8% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.82x ▼7% since tip
Why No Map position given and no form at all, so the path is a first-start debut type run from barrier 9. The market has been firming his price from $15.00 to $14.00.

Race 4 – Entain/NZB Insurance Pearl Series (Bm65)

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. Biding My Time is the LEADER. Acapelago, Cosmic Dream and Rumours are ON-PACE. Pilates, Sista Sugar, Echannay, Cosmopolitan and Watermelon Sugar are MIDFIELD.
Punty read: Cosmic Dream is the one I'm putting the $15.00 Each Way on. He's ON-PACE, sits right behind Biding My Time, and the price of $3.90 is generous for a horse with a 25.0% win chance and a 51.8% place chance on the stats line. He's been off 125 days, so the first-up record of two starts with a win and two thirds is a key stat. Rooke takes the ride, and the place odds make the each-way very playable. Pilates is the danger at a short price, with Mc Nab in the saddle and a lot of market support, but he's a midfielder in a Genuine Pace race.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Cosmic Dream (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.57
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $41.03 if it wins ($29.25 win + $11.78 place), $11.78 if it only places
Prob 25.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.97x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE behind a genuine leader, first-up after 125 days, and a first-up record of 2:0-0-2 with two thirds. Five soft starts, five thirds, no wins yet on soft, so the each-way is the right way to play it.
2. Pilates (No.6) — $2.45 / $1.22
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.1% | Place: 54.1% | Value: 0.54x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Biding My Time (No.8) — $9.50 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.05x Steady since tip
Why LEADER, so he sets the tempo. The first-up record is two starts with a win and a second, and the Ellerslie 1200m win on the form line is what gets him into the frame.
Roughie: Sista Sugar (No.4) — $9.50 / $2.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.61x Steady since tip
Why MIDFIELD with a Ellerslie 1100m fifth last start and a market firming from $11.00 to $9.50. Interference in her last start is the excuse.

Race 5 – Shaw's Hcp

Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. Drops Of God is the LEADER. Vegas Queen, I'm All In, Sindee and Lady Iris are ON-PACE. December, Moschino and Iridescent are MIDFIELD.
Punty read: Drops Of God is the one I'm putting the $9.50 on. He's the LEADER on a Genuine Pace card, he's 3 wins from 4 starts with two wins first-up and two at the track on the form line, and Craig Grylls has him ready. He's the favourite at $1.70 and the price is short, but he has the speed map, and that's the best sort of banker a Genuine Pace race can give you. Vegas Queen and I'm All In are the ones who have to beat him from the pack, and the weight line on Vegas Queen is a worry.

Top 3 + Roughie ($9.50 pool)

1. Drops Of God (No.7) — $1.70 / $1.05
Bet $9.50 Win, return $16.15
Prob 42.8% | Place: 62.5% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why The LEADER in a Genuine Pace race, 3 wins from 4 starts, two wins first-up and a T-HOT tag at 27.0%. Short but the cleanest shape on the card.
2. Vegas Queen (No.1) — $6.00 / $1.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.65 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. I'm All In (No.3) — $8.00 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE with a track record of one win from five at this track, and placings on the Te Rapa 1200m form line.
Roughie: Lady Iris (No.6) — $15.00 / $2.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.1% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 1.07x ▼7% since tip
Why ON-PACE and a raced wide, bumped and hampered excuse last start. Her path is a clean run behind the leader, and the 4kg drop in weight is what makes her dangerous.

Race 6 – Elsdon Park Hcp

Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. El Vencedor is the LEADER. Final Return, The Precursor and Rudyard are ON-PACE. Crocetti, Hasstobeawinner, Top Shelf, Savoir Faire and Mosinvader are MIDFIELD.
Punty read: Top Shelf is the one I'm putting the $12.00 win on. He's MIDFIELD, but he has a win at Ellerslie 1400m and a third at Matamata 1600m on the form line, and the trainer and jockey combination is hot. The price is short at $2.35, and the weight warnings are on the back of him, so this is a bet on the form, not a bargain. El Vencedor sets the tempo and is the roughie, while Mosinvader and Crocetti are the value options that the locked bets leave on the sidelines.

Top 3 + Roughie ($12.00 pool)

1. Top Shelf (No.5) — $2.35 / $1.20
Bet $12.00 Win, return $28.20
Prob 23.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.55x Steady since tip
Why Win at Ellerslie 1400m and a third at Matamata 1600m, with J-HOT and T-HOT tags. The weight warning is the thing to watch, so the win is for those who trust the form.
2. Mosinvader (No.7) — $7.00 / $2.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.1% | Place: 37.7% | Value: 0.99x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.30 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Crocetti (No.2) — $7.00 / $2.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.6% | Place: 33.9% | Value: 0.88x Steady since tip
Why MIDFIELD with a fastest-time sectional and a win at Ellerslie 1400m on the form line, but three raced-wide or held-up excuses in the last three starts.
Roughie: El Vencedor (No.1) — $11.00 / $2.80
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.26x Steady since tip
Why LEADER in a Genuine Pace race. His path is simple, make all and hope nobody can run him down, but the last start was a 14th at Hastings 1600m.

Race 7 – Show By Skycity (Bm75)

Race type: Benchmark 75, 1400m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Casemiro, Lord Of The Sea, Day One and La Prima Dama are ON-PACE. Super Fly, Steely Man, Aksil, War Queen, Power Of Three and Sperlari are MIDFIELD. Hidden Achievement is BACKMARKER.
Punty read: Day One is the one I'm putting the $5.50 Each Way on. He's ON-PACE in a Moderate Pace 1400m, he won at Ellerslie 1300m last start, and the form and speed make him the strongest of the group at $4.60. Ellerslie is a track where he's two wins from three. The market has backed him in, and I'm happy to follow the money. Hidden Achievement is the danger, a BACKMARKER with a sectional fastest L400 and the place numbers to back it, but the slow starts are a worry.

Top 3 + Roughie ($5.50 pool)

1. Day One (No.5) — $4.60 / $1.85
Bet $5.50 Each Way ($2.75W + $2.75P), collects $17.74 if it wins ($12.65 win + $5.09 place), $5.09 if it only places
Prob 23.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.09x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE in a Moderate Pace 1400m, won at Ellerslie 1300m last start, and two wins from three at this track. The 2kg drop in weight is a plus.
2. Hidden Achievement (No.8) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.94x Steady since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. War Queen (No.9) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.52x Steady since tip
Why MIDFIELD, and the last start was a ninth at Ellerslie 1400m after a slow start. A second at Te Aroha 1600m is the form to note.
Roughie: La Prima Dama (No.12) — $9.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.1% | Place: 25.2% | Value: 0.73x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE and a Trentham 1400m first-up win on the form line. A firm run at this 1400m with the speed sitting up gives her a path.

Race 8 – Thank You Craig Baker (Bm65)

Race type: Benchmark 65, 1600m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Lucky Ferrando, Sneaky Cyclone, Fastdeeldun, Rima Rua Toru, The Trendsetter and Emmy Dazzler are ON-PACE. Excite, Jurisprudence, Young Jackson, Taylor Square, Escape Room, Ocean Rules, Savina and Viva L'amour are MIDFIELD. Victor Tango and Luvabeel are BACKMARKER. No LEADER marked.
Punty read: Excite is the one I'm putting the $5.50 Each Way on. He's MIDFIELD, a 16-runner handicap in a Moderate Pace, and the price of $5.00 is generous for a horse with a 20.8% win chance and a 46.1% place chance on the stats line. Last start was a seventh at Hastings 1400m with bumped-hampered and slow-start excuses, and the weight is up 3kg. Young Jackson is the danger, with the market backing him from $6.50 to $4.50 and a fastest sectional on the form line. I can't see the reason for that move in the data, so I'm treating it as a warning.

Top 3 + Roughie ($5.50 pool)

1. Excite (No.1) — $5.00 / $2.00
Bet $5.50 Each Way ($2.75W + $2.75P), collects $19.25 if it wins ($13.75 win + $5.50 place), $5.50 if it only places
Prob 20.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.04x Steady since tip
Why Last start was bumped and hampered with a slow start, and before that a third at Ellerslie 1400m, with a first at Te Rapa 1400m on the form. Each-way at $5.00 is the right play in a 16-runner field.
2. Young Jackson (No.6) — $4.50 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 16.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.74x ▲2% since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Victor Tango (No.8) — $6.50 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.72x Steady since tip
Why BACKMARKER and a late-runner profile in a Moderate Pace, with a second and a first from his last few starts on the form line. A run home is his path.
Roughie: Sneaky Cyclone (No.3) — $11.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 22.3% | Value: 0.62x Steady since tip
Why ON-PACE and a Matamata 2000m second last start, with J@trk 21.5% over the last 100 rides at the track. If the pace stays moderate, he's the one who can sneak home.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Young Jackson's price has been cut in half
The market has pushed Young Jackson in Race 8 from $6.50 to $4.50, HEAVY, and the last start was an eleventh at Hastings 1400m. I can't see a reason in the data, so I'm watching it, not backing it.

2 - Day One is 2kg lighter this time
Day One is 2kg down from last start, and his last start was a win at Ellerslie 1300m. That's the sort of weight drop that makes a Moderate Pace 1400m interesting for a horse who is two wins from three at this track.

3 - Rain is in the forecast
Rain risk is 45%+ at 14:00, 17:00, 20:00 and 23:00 on a Soft 5 track. If the sky opens up, the Soft 5 could turn into something heavier, so keep an eye on the going before you lock anything in.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Drops Of God looks like a nap-worthy banker on paper, but at $1.70 he's going to be a pain for anyone who needs a return on their money. Back him with your eyes open and keep the big stakes for the Genuine Pace races where the value is real.