For all of Punty's tips for Eagle Farm, head to https://punty.ai/tips/eagle-farm-2026-10-24

Rightio Ratbags, Eagle Farm is a Heavy 10 with 27mm in the last 24 hours and 151.5mm over the week, so this is a mudbath with a card that runs from sprints to 2200m. Half the field has never been asked to handle this much water, the gusts are up to 37km/h, and the rain is threatening all afternoon. Grab a coffee, pick your spots, and don't ask me to tell you the lane because nobody on earth knows it yet.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Eagle Farm, 1000m to 2200m card
Rail: +1m Entire
Official going: Heavy 8 (updated from Heavy 10) (27mm last 24hrs, 151.5mm last 7 days)
Weather: Raining, gusts 37km/h, rain risk 65%+ at 01:00, 04:00, 07:00, 10:00 and 13:00
Early lane guess: unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Genuine pace in R2, R5 and R10. Moderate in R3, R4, R6, R8 and R9. Slow in R1. Hot in R7, where four runners are shown as leaders, so that one should be a genuine speed tussle.
Jockeys to follow:
Ben E Thompson: Nine rides today, including Lead Me On in R8 and Brindavan in R10, both on our staked tickets. His last 100 rides are running at a 30.0% strike rate.
Angela Jones: Eight rides, with She Had A Plan in R1 and Esperanza in R7 both carrying our money. She's 15.9% at this track on the jockey record.
Bella Youngberry: Seven rides, including Ready For Aimee in R3 and Strada Varenna in R6, two of our main chances. Ready For Aimee's jockey record here is 14.8% at this track.
Stables to respect:
T J Gollan (12 runners): Gollan has the biggest book on the card, with Ready For Aimee in R3, Strada Varenna in R6 and Brindavan in R10 all on our tickets. The yard is 17.1% at this track on the trainer record.
C J Waller (10 runners): Gaultier in R4 is our staked pick and Galway Flyer in R2 is the one to keep an eye on in the heavy.
M J Dunn (10 runners): Millennium Blade in R6 and Shredded in R3 are both roughies here, and the yard's Royal Commodore and Poseidon's Son are in R8 if you want to see where the stable is putting its effort.

Punty's take: This is a heavy-track card and the rain is the story. Eagle Farm has a lot of wet-track form in the field, but most of it sits in the boxes of the horses that have actually run in the mud, and plenty of others have no heavy record at all. R1 is a slow-pace 1000m two-year-old race where nobody has a map position except Mishani Kimitsu, so I'm not going to pretend I know who's going to lead. R7 is the hot-pace sprint, four leaders in one race, and it's the kind of set-up where a backmarker can swoop if the speed burns out. Esperanza is the horse that makes that race work for me, sitting back and waiting for the leaders to cook.

The bankers are thin on the ground. R1 has a short-priced favourite and R3 and R10 have stout names at the top of the market, but the rest of the card is the sort of heavy-going chaos that makes bookies rich and punters grumpy. R5 is the one I'd walk away from, with no staked horse at all because the data says Sir Winnie is rank 1 at $9.40 and the roughie guard kicks in.

What it means for you: Be aggressive where the money is actually on the table: She Had A Plan in R1 is the cleanest bet on the card, and Taravia in R2 is the next one I'd feel good about. Get Ready Lass in R9 is an each-way bet, so protect yourself on the place. Protect your bankroll in R5 and R2 (where the picks past the top one are not backed), and don't chase the chaos. The Early Quaddie and Quaddie are the entertainment tickets, and the Big 6 is a lottery ticket with a flexi that sits right on the floor. Stay on the locked bets and let the wide-open races pay the price of admission.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - She Had A Plan (Race 1, No.7) — $2.64
Why She won at Sunshine Coast Inner last start, Angela Jones is on board, and she's the only horse in the Race 1 field with a clear pathway to the front on this slow pace.
2 - Taravia (Race 2, No.5) — $2.60
Why Second at Eagle Farm over 2218m last start, and her only heavy start is a win (Heavy 1:1-0-0). She's the one horse who has already shown she can handle this kind of ground at a staying trip.
3 - Get Ready Lass (Race 9, No.8) — $4.40
Why She's second at Eagle Farm over 1000m last start and has three wins from 13 at the distance (Dist 13:3-4-1), so she's been here before and knows the road.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 30.20 = $302.00

Race 1 – Ladbrokes Cox Plate Raceday 2yo

Race type: Open, 1000m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Mishani Kimitsu is the only runner with a map position (MIDFIELD). Every other runner is UNKNOWN, so I'm not calling the lead.
Punty read: She Had A Plan is the staked pick and the reason is simple: she's the form horse on paper, coming off a win at Sunshine Coast Inner, and Angela Jones has the best jockey record at this track in the field. The price is short at $2.64, but the Win bet is the right one because there's no place saver that would pay enough. Celestialmessenger has ear muffs on for the first time and a close second at Doomben last start, so he's the danger on her heels. Iconic Scenes is a horse to watch with ear muffs and a tongue tie both on first time. Mishani Kimitsu is the roughie to watch from midfield, with the fastest last 400m and fastest time in the sectionals. The field is only seven runners, so the place dividends are thin.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. She Had A Plan (No.7) — $2.64 / $1.50
Bet $15.00 Win, return $39.60
Prob 29.3% | Place: 54.3% | Value: 0.77x ▲2% since tip
Why She won last start at Sunshine Coast Inner and has the best record of any runner here. Angela Jones is 15.9% at Eagle Farm on the jockey record.
2. Celestialmessenger (No.1) — $2.10 / $1.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.50x ▲5% since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Iconic Scenes (No.3) — $9.50 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.33x ▼11% since tip
Why Third at Gold Coast last start and ear muffs plus tongue tie both on first time. Ryan Maloney has an 18.1% strike rate at this track.

Roughie: Mishani Kimitsu (No.6) — $23.00 / $5.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.5% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 1.73x
Why Fourth at Eagle Farm last start with the fastest last 400m and fastest time in the sectionals. He's the one at a long price who can run into a place if the leader gets away from them.

Race 2 – Ladbrokes Tote Win +10% In October (Bm70)

Race type: Benchmark 70, 2200m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Family Of League as the leader. Family Of League (LEADER), Cigar Man (ON-PACE), and Taravia, Galway Flyer, Amelioration, Super Fair, Castello Grande and the rest sit MIDFIELD or BACKMARKER as shown in the table. Family Of League, Amelioration and Empress Aspen are advantaged, and Galway Flyer, Super Fair, Castello Grande and Sun Topaze are disadvantaged.
Punty read: Taravia is the staked pick and it's about the heavy-track record (1 win from 1 on heavy) and the way the race is shaping up. Family Of League will go hard, and a midfield horse sitting in behind that pace is the right place to be. Galway Flyer has a heavy record and a 1st-up strike rate, but the pace is against him, so he's the danger rather than the bet. Amelioration is a sensible value runner with a good heavy record. Trusty Bandit, the roughie, has won at Eagle Farm over 2443m last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.50 pool)

1. Taravia (No.5) — $2.60 / $1.40
Bet $7.50 Win, return $19.50
Prob 24.3% | Place: 54.2% | Value: 0.63x ▼2% since tip
Why Second at Eagle Farm over 2218m last start and his one heavy start was a win. Ben E Thompson is on board.
2. Galway Flyer (No.4) — $7.50 / $2.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 45.8% | Value: 0.89x ▲7% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.60 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Amelioration (No.11) — $12.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.8% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.18x ▲18% since tip
Why Advantaged on the pace and 2kg down from last start. Last start was a bumped and hampered run at Gold Coast, so there's a bounce in there.

Roughie: Trusty Bandit (No.9) — $12.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.9% | Place: 29.3% | Value: 0.95x ▲8% since tip
Why Won at Eagle Farm over 2443m last start and has 2 wins from 2 on heavy? No, Heavy 2:1-0-0, one win from two on heavy. If the pace collapses in the stretch, this is the one swooping late.

Race 3 – Ladbrokes Winx 2018 (Rs0mw)

Race type: Rest 0 Metro Wins, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Ready For Aimee (ON-PACE), Do It For You (ON-PACE), Music Fever (ON-PACE), Shredded (ON-PACE). Smoke On The Water (MIDFIELD), Contilda's Love (BACKMARKER), Galpin (BACKMARKER). Influential is advantaged and Bonded Affair is disadvantaged.
Punty read: Ready For Aimee is the staked pick. She won at Doomben last start (1st/10, 1L), which is the freshest form on the card, and she sits on the speed in a moderate pace. Smoke On The Water is the danger, with a last-start win at Doomben and first-up strike rate. Contilda's Love has a strong first-up record and is one to watch from behind the speed. Shredded is the roughie with a 1st at Ballina last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Ready For Aimee (No.9) — $3.20 / $1.50
Bet $15.00 Win, return $48.00
Prob 22.6% | Place: 54.5% | Value: 0.72x ▲10% since tip
Why Won at Doomben over 1350m last start, and Bella Youngberry is 14.8% at this track on the jockey record.
2. Smoke On The Water (No.3) — $4.00 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.60x ▲3% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.70 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Contilda's Love (No.7) — $10.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.5% | Place: 33.3% | Value: 1.15x ▼11% since tip
Why 1st-up 4:3-0-0 is a strong record first up, and she ran third at Eagle Farm last start.

Roughie: Shredded (No.12) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.8% | Place: 24.7% | Value: 0.68x ▲10% since tip
Why Won at Ballina over 1300m last start and Ben E Thompson has been hot over his last 100 rides. If the leaders do the work, Shredded can run into a place.

Race 4 – Ladbrokes Lys Gracieux 2019 Hcp (65)

Race type: Restricted 65, 1300m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Duomo (ON-PACE) and Straight Blast (ON-PACE) are advantaged. Gaultier (MIDFIELD), Rule The Night (MIDFIELD), Pearls In June (MIDFIELD), Astern Effort (MIDFIELD), Yes Donald Yes (ON-PACE), Kadesky (ON-PACE). Starboard (ON-PACE), Bent Bridge (ON-PACE) are disadvantaged.
Punty read: Gaultier is the staked pick on the back of a third at Doomben over 1350m last start and a second at Eagle Farm over 1400m before that. Ryan Maloney is 18.1% at this track. Rule The Night is the one with the value on the price, with a heavy 1:1-0-0 record. Yes Donald Yes is the danger from the front, with two wins in his last four starts. Pearls In June is the roughie with a first-up good strike rate.

Top 3 + Roughie ($8.00 pool)

1. Gaultier (No.10) — $4.60 / $1.90
Bet $8.00 Win, return $36.80
Prob 13.7% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.63x Steady since tip
Why Third at Doomben last start and second at Eagle Farm before that, with a good record on the ground and a jockey who has been hot at this track.
2. Rule The Night (No.15) — $8.50 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.4% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.05x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.75 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Yes Donald Yes (No.4) — $5.00 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 34.4% | Value: 0.60x ▲9% since tip
Why Fourth at Sunshine Coast last start with interference, and he's won two of seven starts. Ben E Thompson has been hot.

Roughie: Pearls In June (No.11) — $9.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.3% | Place: 33.1% | Value: 0.93x ▲6% since tip
Why First at Gold Coast over 1400m last start and a 2-0-2 Good record. If the midfield bunch gets bunched up, she can sneak into a place.

Race 5 – Ladbrokes Sir Dragonet 2020 (Bm78)

Race type: Benchmark 78, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Atmosphere as the leader (LEADER). Perfect Play (ON-PACE), Sir Winnie (ON-PACE), Hell To Pay (ON-PACE), Princeofnottingham (ON-PACE). Lim's Shavano and Beau Dazzler sit MIDFIELD. Twisted Queen, Chief In Charge, Cantarito, Naval Seal and others are BACKMARKER.
Punty read: No stake in this one. The data has Sir Winnie as the top pick at $9.40 but the roughie guard applies, so the bet line says no bet. I'm not going to talk you into a horse here. Sir Winnie has form at this distance, Hell To Pay has been a 3rd at Doomben, and Lim's Shavano ran 3rd at Eagle Farm last start. Those are the ones to watch, not back.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Sir Winnie (No.14) — $9.40 / $2.90
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $92.25 if it wins ($70.50 win + $21.75 place), $21.75 if it only places
Prob 11.5% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.08x ▲6% since tip
Why Fifth at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start but second at Toowoomba before that, with 4 wins from 10 career.
2. Hell To Pay (No.5) — $9.80 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.3% | Place: 27.9% | Value: 1.11x ▲6% since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Lim's Shavano (No.15) — $5.00 / $1.90
Bet Tracked
Prob 10.8% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.54x ▲7% since tip
Why Third at Eagle Farm over 1400m last start and a good good-track record (Good 9:2-0-1).

Roughie: Perfect Play (No.1) — $9.00 / $2.65
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.04x ▲7% since tip
Why Fourth at Doomben last start with interference. He's got a 2nd-up strike rate of 6:2-0-1 and a good distance record.

Race 6 – Ladbrokes State Of Rest 2021 Plate (C3)

Race type: Class 3, 1200m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Noble Decree (ON-PACE), Millennium Blade (ON-PACE), Moscow Circus (ON-PACE), Daiane (ON-PACE). Strada Varenna (MIDFIELD), Kohler Kid (MIDFIELD), Dark Arts (MIDFIELD), Impendor (MIDFIELD). Harry's Evidence is disadvantaged.
Punty read: Strada Varenna is the staked pick. She's second at Eagle Farm over 1200m last start and Blinkers go ON for the first time. The market has come in from $2.85 to $2.15 with heavy support. Kohler Kid is the danger, with a nose roll off first time and a better record in the heavy than the price implies. Dark Arts ran third at Eagle Farm last start and is the one to watch. Millennium Blade is the roughie with Speed Rank 1 on the board.

Top 3 + Roughie ($4.50 pool)

1. Strada Varenna (No.16) — $2.25 / $1.25
Bet $4.50 Win, return $10.13
Prob 20.6% | Place: 52.3% | Value: 0.46x ▼5% since tip
Why Second at Eagle Farm over 1200m last start, blinkers ON first time and the market has been hot on her.
2. Kohler Kid (No.4) — $7.50 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 18.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.39x ▼14% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.50 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Dark Arts (No.8) — $7.50 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.34x ▼7% since tip
Why Third at Eagle Farm over 1200m last start and has been held up and raced wide in recent runs. A good price for the place.

Roughie: Millennium Blade (No.13) — $10.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.6% | Place: 33.6% | Value: 0.96x ▲5% since tip
Why Sixth at Doomben last start and Speed Rank 1 in the field. If the speed is slow out of the gates, he's the one who can jump to the front.

Race 7 – Ladbrokes Anamoe 2022 Hcp

Race type: Open, 1200m
Map & tempo: Hot Pace. Jimmy The Scat (LEADER), Fleeting Boom (LEADER), Zoureka (LEADER), Aurora Blaze (LEADER). Adora Djon's (ON-PACE), Swift Dragon (MIDFIELD), Unloading (MIDFIELD). Esperanza (BACKMARKER). Esperanza and Dreams Don't Die are advantaged. Subsiding and Happyaziam are disadvantaged.
Punty read: Esperanza is the staked pick, and the hot pace is exactly why. He's been sitting at the back of this field and the four leaders should cook each other. He's won at Eagle Farm over 1000m last start, and the pace set-up is a backmarker's dream. Adora Djon's has won his last three starts (1st, 1st, 1st, if you count them) and sits on the pace. Fleeting Boom is the danger from the front. Unloading is the roughie with blinkers on for the first time.

Top 3 + Roughie ($20.00 pool)

1. Esperanza (No.3) — $2.40 / $1.32
Bet $15.00 Win, return $36.00
Prob 21.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.52x ▼7% since tip
Why First at Eagle Farm over 1000m last start and a 3kg rise, but the hot pace suits a horse at the back of the field.
2. Adora Djon's (No.6) — $9.50 / $3.00
Bet $5.00 Place, return $15.00
Prob 13.3% | Place: 45.0% | Value: 1.26x Steady since tip
Why First at Gold Coast over 1200m last start and 1st in each of his last three starts on the record. He sits on the speed.
3. Fleeting Boom (No.8) — $10.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.3% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 1.23x ▼15% since tip
Why First at Doomben over 1200m last start, a leader in a hot-pace race, and J-HOT 30.0% L100 for Ben E Thompson.

Roughie: Unloading (No.4) — $10.00 / $3.10
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.5% | Place: 31.8% | Value: 0.85x ▼11% since tip
Why Blinkers ON first time, sixth at Eagle Farm over 1300m last start and sectionals fastest in time. He's got to be saved for the hot pace to wind up.

Race 8 – Ladbrokes Romantic Warrior 2023 Hcp (C6)

Race type: Class 6, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Street Chase (ON-PACE), Lead Me On (ON-PACE), Royal Commodore (ON-PACE), Stiktodascrypt (ON-PACE), Poseidon's Son (ON-PACE), Mercian (ON-PACE), The Fixer (ON-PACE). Fleetwood, Millane (MIDFIELD) and Thelwell (BACKMARKER) are disadvantaged.
Punty read: Lead Me On is the each-way pick, and the way I read it, he's the speed that handles the midweek pace. He's won at Doomben over 1000m last start and went fastest in the sectionals. The each-way wording is right here since the place part protects you if the race turns into a survivor. Mercian has won at Eagle Farm over 1200m last start, and Stiktodascrypt has a heavy win in his book, so both are dangerous. Fleetwood is the roughie who has won both his heavy starts.

Top 3 + Roughie ($2.50 pool)

1. Lead Me On (No.4) — $5.20 / $1.95
Bet $2.50 Each Way ($1.25W + $1.25P), collects $8.94 if it wins ($6.50 win + $2.44 place), $2.44 if it only places
Prob 16.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.85x ▲4% since tip
Why Second at Doomben over 1000m last start and the sectionals are fast. Ben E Thompson is on board.
2. Mercian (No.12) — $8.00 / $2.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.06x ▲21% since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Stiktodascrypt (No.13) — $6.50 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.0% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why Heavy 1:1-0-0 and Speed Rank 2 in the race. Angela Jones takes the ride.

Roughie: Fleetwood (No.1) — $9.00 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 8.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.76x ▼6% since tip
Why Second at Eagle Farm over 1000m last start and 2 wins from 2 on heavy. If the pace goes slow, he can come late.

Race 9 – Ladbrokes Via Sistina 2024/2025 Hcp (C6)

Race type: Class 6, 1000m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace with Mishani Crown (LEADER) and Divine Source (LEADER) as the leaders. Gospel Girl (ON-PACE) and Mercurial Lady (ON-PACE) are advantaged. Get Ready Lass (ON-PACE), Dominant Darcy (ON-PACE), Overfull (ON-PACE). Termagant and Joy A Plenty are midfield.
Punty read: Get Ready Lass is the each-way pick because she's the best in the field at her trip. She finished second at Eagle Farm over 1000m last start and has won at Deagon over 1050m before that. The place part of the each-way bet covers you if the race is a grind. Dominant Darcy is the danger from the speed, with a good Good record. Divine Source is the one leading from the front. Mercurial Lady is the roughie with winkers OFF for the first time.

Top 3 + Roughie ($4.50 pool)

1. Get Ready Lass (No.8) — $4.40 / $1.70
Bet $4.50 Each Way ($2.25W + $2.25P), collects $13.73 if it wins ($9.90 win + $3.83 place), $3.83 if it only places
Prob 24.2% | Place: 55.5% | Value: 1.06x Steady since tip
Why Second at Eagle Farm over 1000m last start, and Mark Du Plessis knows how to ride this sort of race. The weight note says 0/2 winning at 58kg, so keep the weight in mind.
2. Dominant Darcy (No.10) — $2.90 / $1.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 23.4% | Place: 56.6% | Value: 0.68x ▼7% since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Divine Source (No.13) — $4.80 / $1.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.71x ▲9% since tip
Why First at Doomben over 1110m last start and a good record at 1000m-plus. Tahlia Fenlon rides.

Roughie: Mercurial Lady (No.5) — $9.00 / $2.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 9.0% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.81x Steady since tip
Why Ninth at Doomben last start with interference, and winkers come off for the first time. If she's back to form on the speed, she's a value bet.

Race 10 – Ladbrokes Spring Racing Carnival Hcp

Race type: Open, 1600m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace with Capital Asset as the leader (LEADER). Esjay (MIDFIELD), Brindavan (MIDFIELD), All Kinds Of Folk (MIDFIELD), Boys Night Out (MIDFIELD), Cunnamulla Fella (ON-PACE), Liberty Park (ON-PACE). Demon Darb, Noble Conqueror, Golden Cross and Boom Torque are disadvantaged.
Punty read: Brindavan is the each-way pick. He's second at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start, Ben E Thompson is on board and the trip suits him (Dist 6:2-3-0). The place part is the safety net. Esjay ran third at Eagle Farm over 1400m last start with an interference excuse before that, so he's the one to watch. All Kinds Of Folk is a heavy horse with two wins from two on the ground. Cunnamulla Fella is the roughie with a first at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Brindavan (No.2) — $3.40 / $1.57
Bet $15.00 Each Way ($7.50W + $7.50P), collects $37.28 if it wins ($25.50 win + $11.78 place), $11.78 if it only places
Prob 21.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.72x ▲3% since tip
Why Second at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start and a strong record at the trip. Ben E Thompson is 30.0% over his last 100 rides.
2. Esjay (No.1) — $8.50 / $2.75
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.46x ▼12% since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. All Kinds Of Folk (No.14) — $2.90 / $1.45
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.46x Steady since tip
Why Heavy 2:2-0-0 and sectionals show good closing sectionals (L600 rank 2).

Roughie: Cunnamulla Fella (No.3) — $11.00 / $3.30
Bet Tracked
Prob 13.3% | Place: 38.9% | Value: 1.46x ▲20% since tip
Why First at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start and a 5-6-1 record over the distance. If the leader gets away, he's the one to come late.

SEQUENCE LANES

EARLY QUADDIE (R3-R6)

Smart: 9,3,7,12 / 10,4,15,11 / 15,1,14,5 / 16,8,4,13 (256 combos x $0.3125 = $80.00) -- 31.2% flexi
Punty's take: R3 and R6 are the tighter legs, while R4 and R5 are open and make the ticket wide. This is a risky entertainment play with a 31.2% flexi, so it's a fun one to have a crack at but not one to rely on.

QUADDIE (R7-R10)

Smart: 3,6,8,4 / 4,12,13,1 / 10,8,13,5 / 2,14,1,3 (256 combos x $0.3125 = $80.00) -- 31.2% flexi
Punty's take: R9 is the tightest leg with three runners, while R7, R8 and R10 are open and make this ticket wide. A 33.9% flexi means the payout depends on a $5 to $10 winner somewhere in the sequence.

BIG 6 (R5-R10)

Smart: 15,1,14,5 / 16,8,4,13 / 3,6,8,4 / 4,12,13,1 / 10,8,13,5 / 2,14,1,3 (4096 combos x $0.00122 = $5.00) -- 0.12% flexi
Punty's take: Every leg is open or near-open, so this one is entertainment only. At 0.12% flexi it's a lottery ticket, so stake what you can afford to lose and enjoy the ride.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Blinkers first time, 66 days off
Ghost Gum (No.2) in R1 has Blinkers: ON (first time) and is a first-up runner after 66d off. A fresh horse in blinkers on a heavy track is a gamble, so watch his market.

2 - Blinkers on, market in
Strada Varenna (No.16) in R6 has Blinkers: ON (first time) and the market has moved from $2.85 to $2.15 [HEAVY]. The money has come for her, and the blinkers are the gear reason behind it.

3 - Bad luck with a good excuse
Esjay (No.1) in R10 finished 12th at Sunshine Coast 1400m last start with the excuse "interference, not tested". The price has firmed from $8.50 to $8.00, so someone has been listening.

FINAL WORD FROM THE LOOSE UNIT LOUNGE

The rain is going to keep coming and so am I, with the same bad jokes and the same big ideas. Back the horses that have earned it and don't chase the wide-open races, because the ground will teach you that lesson faster than I can.