For all of Punty's tips for Yarra Glen, head to https://punty.ai/tips/yarra-glen-2026-10-24

Rightio Ticket Munchers, Yarra Glen on a Good 4 with the rail out 3m, seven races, a bit of wind in the gusts and showers on the way. The speed is spread across the card but the Race 5 and Race 7 fields are wide open, so this is a day to be picky. Let's get into it.

MEET SNAPSHOT

Track: Yarra Glen, 1009m to 1968m card
Rail: Out 3m Entire Circuit
Official going: Good 4 (Rainfall nil)
Weather: Showers, live gusts 33.3km/h
Early lane guess: Unknown pre-race, watch the first two
Tempo profile: Race 1, Race 2 and Race 6 are Genuine Pace, Race 3 is a Slow Pace classic, Races 4, 5 and 7 are Moderate Pace. Race 1 has Velocite Belle as the only listed leader, Race 2 has Luscombe, Race 5 has Tipping Rain and Cavascot, Race 6 has Second Guess.
Jockeys to follow:
Lachlan King: Six rides on the card, including Ponte Arcobaleno in Race 6 and Hell's Itch in Race 7, the most rides of anyone.
Damien Thornton: Five rides, with Aerial Pursuit, Xuxa Kiss, Sentaloa, Aussieaussieaussie and Colour Circle all in the mix.
Fred W Kersley: Five rides, including Real Heir in Race 2 and Mehsun in Race 3, and he is the one to watch in Race 2's market.
Stables to respect:
C J Davis (5 runners): Five runners across the card, with Surely Special in Race 4 the one I'd be watching most closely.
Ben Brisbourne (3 runners): Pharoah's Daughter in Race 4, Ponte Arcobaleno in Race 6 and Hell's Itch in Race 7.
D J Walkley (3 runners): Avonview in Race 4, Heartattack Jack in Race 5 and Golden Hips is one to note in Race 4's market.

Punty's take: Right, let's talk about where the speed is, because that's the whole game at Yarra Glen today. Race 1 is a Genuine Pace maiden with Velocite Belle the only listed leader, and Exacting Standard sitting just behind her on the map. That pair makes the opening race the most readable on the card, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. Race 3 is the one that looks like a proper banker race on paper. It's a 1968m Slow Pace affair, Nightowl has five seconds from 12 starts and the sectional line has him fastest, and Sentaloa and Zverev sit right alongside him. Then you get to Race 5, where the map has Pacific Glamour on pace with the quickest early speed in the field, but the map also has him on the wrong side of the pace shape. That's the sort of race where the tipster's ego gets tested. Race 7 is the chaos race. Fourteen runners, no one above 15 per cent on my numbers, and the market is all over the place with Our Paramour and Sacred Ingot both shortening. I like the way this card sets up for people who are prepared to take a price.

What it means for you: Be aggressive in Race 1 and Race 3, where the locked bets have a proper racing reason behind them. Exacting Standard is the bet in Race 1 and Nightowl is the bet in Race 3, and I'd be happy to put real money on both. Protect yourself in Race 5 and Race 6, where the favourites have map headwinds and the bets are sized small. Race 7 is the each-way race and it's built for the people who like a bit of colour. The quaddie runs Race 4 to Race 7, and it's a wide ticket with a healthy number of combinations, so don't expect a tight payout. If you're after a bet that pays, look for a $5 to $10 winner somewhere in that sequence, because short-priced favourites rarely carry a quaddie on their own.

PUNTY'S BIG 3 + MULTI

These are the three bets the day leans on.

1 - Pacific Glamour (Race 5, No.2) — $3.00
Why Fastest early speed in the race and he's had his gear tinkered with, blinkers on first time with winkers off. The map has a pace headwind on him, so I'm not blind to that, but he's the most likely winner in a Moderate Pace race with plenty of speed in it.
2 - Exacting Standard (Race 1, No.2) — $3.00
Why On-pace in a Genuine Pace maiden with a leader to run at, and he has a second and a fifth in two starts over sprint trips. Cross-over nose band, Equicast and tongue tie all going on first time, which is a lot of change for a horse who had a slow start last time.
3 - Nightowl (Race 3, No.3) — $3.40
Why Five seconds from 12 starts, the sectional line shows him fastest, and he's been spoiled by interference in his last three runs. Blinkers on one side first time and visors off, and the Slow Pace race suits a horse who can finish off a race.
Multi (all three to win): $10 × 30.60 = $306.00

Race 1 – Manhari Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1009m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. Velocite Belle (No.7) is the LEADER. Exacting Standard (No.2) is ON-PACE. Aerial Pursuit (No.1) and Quarters (No.3) are MIDFIELD. Velocite Belle and Exacting Standard are both pace advantaged. Confidential Girl (No.4), Madame Petite (No.5) and Skyblock (No.6) have no map position.
Punty read: Exacting Standard is the bet here. He's on pace behind the only listed leader, so he can get a sit without having to chase a bolter. His last start was a slow beginning at Pakenham, and before that he ran second at Bendigo over 1000m. Three new gear items go on today, which tells me the stable is trying to fix something. Velocite Belle will go forward and I expect her to test the field early, which suits Exacting Standard. Velocite Belle's market has been HEAVY, from $6.50 to $5.00, so money is coming for her, and she's the one to watch. Confidential Girl is a danger with no career record, a $3.10 price, and an unknown map. Skyblock is the roughie, blinkers on first time and a lot of ground to make up.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.40 pool)

1. Exacting Standard (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.65
Bet $11.40 Win, return $34.20
Prob 26.5% | Place: 38.8% | Value: 0.80x Steady since tip
Why On pace behind the leader, a second at Bendigo and a fifth at Pakenham after a slow start. The kit changes are the question, but the racing shape is in his favour.
2. Confidential Girl (No.4) — $3.10 / place tote
Bet Tracked
Prob 21.6% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 0.67x ▲10% since tip
Why Only two places paid in a field this size, and skinny place divvies make savers a mug's game — this is a win-only race. Tracked, not staked.
3. Velocite Belle (No.7) — $5.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.8% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why She's the leader and the money has been coming for her. If she gets an uncontested lead she can be hard to pass, but she's also the horse who could run the field into the ground for Exacting Standard.

Roughie: Skyblock (No.6) — $16.00 / $4.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 4.8% | Place: 9.8% | Value: 0.77x ▲12% since tip
Why Blinkers on first time, and his best path is a genuine pace up front that cooks the leaders, with him running on from midfield. He's a long way from the market leaders on the form, so it's a long shot not a bet.

Race 2 – Stretch Electrics Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1009m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. Luscombe (No.8) is the LEADER. Real Heir (No.2), Sheer Panic (No.3), Charleanor (No.4), Xuxa Kiss (No.10), Powershare (No.13), Bold Amore (No.12) and Baltic (No.14) are all ON-PACE. Fanfire (No.5), La Velocita (No.7) and Silver Snow (No.11) are MIDFIELD. Real Heir and Powershare are pace advantaged, La Velocita is pace disadvantaged.
Punty read: Real Heir is the bet. He's on pace in a race where the speed sits in the early part of the field, and his last start was a second at Ballarat over 1000m. The excuses are a bumped and hampered run at Pakenham and a not-tested run at Geelong, so he's shown a bit more than the rest of the maiden field. He's a two-placings-in-seven-starts kind of horse, so I'm not expecting a flier, but he's the most consistent option in the race. La Velocita is the danger, who carried a weight rise last start and runs best at lighter weights. Xuxa Kiss has blinkers on first time and a slow start excuse last time out. Charleanor is the roughie, with the tongue tie going on first time and a second at Bairnsdale last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($11.50 pool)

1. Real Heir (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.45
Bet $11.50 Win, return $34.50
Prob 16.2% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.49x ▲3% since tip
Why On pace with a second last start at Ballarat, and two of his three runs in the last three starts have been placed. The bumped run at Pakenham is the excuse I'm buying.
2. La Velocita (No.7) — $4.40 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.5% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.64x ▲9% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.85 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Xuxa Kiss (No.10) — $4.50 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.58x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers on first time and two excuses in her last starts. She's on pace, so if the front-runners fade she's well placed, but I want to see her race cleanly first.

Roughie: Charleanor (No.4) — $11.00 / $3.20
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.6% | Place: 24.1% | Value: 0.62x Steady since tip
Why Tongue tie on first time and a second last start at Bairnsdale over 1000m, with sectionals ranked third in both the last 600 and last 400. She's on pace and can run a race in the first half of the field, so if the leaders burn out she's a decent each-way type ticket.

Race 3 – bet365 Bet Boost Mdn Plate

Race type: Maiden, 1968m
Map & tempo: Slow Pace. Molesworth (No.2), Camegitchee (No.6), Sentaloa (No.10) and Startin'sumthin' (No.12) are pace advantaged. Mehsun (No.1) and Hot Opera (No.7) are BACKMARKER, Camegitchee is ON-PACE. Nightowl (No.3), Zverev (No.4), Bling Baby (No.5), Kissattack (No.8), Threewinesin (No.9), Whatwashethinking (No.11) and Startin'sumthin' are MIDFIELD. Zverev, Kissattack, Whatwashethinking and Ask The Captain are pace disadvantaged.
Punty read: Nightowl is the bet. He sits midfield in a slow race which suits a horse with a good finish, and his last three starts were all interference-affected. The sectional line has him fastest in the last 600 and last 400, and his one-side blinkers are on first time. Zverev is the danger, who has the best strike rate in the field on the card but a map disadvantage in a slow race. Sentaloa is pace advantaged and has been placed in his last two starts, so he's the one to watch. Kissattack is the roughie, a midfield runner who has run a strong first-up sprint and is off a sub-par run at Kyneton.

Top 3 + Roughie ($15.00 pool)

1. Nightowl (No.3) — $3.40 / $1.60
Bet $15.00 Win, return $51.00
Prob 26.2% | Place: 54.8% | Value: 0.89x Steady since tip
Why Five seconds from 12 starts and three runs ruined by interference, so he's been unlucky. The blinkers on one side and visors off suggest connections are trying to get him to race out in front of trouble.
2. Zverev (No.4) — $3.60 / $1.62
Bet Tracked
Prob 22.0% | Place: 48.7% | Value: 0.79x Steady since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.62 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Sentaloa (No.10) — $4.00 / $1.70
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.1% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.76x ▲15% since tip
Why Pace advantaged, a second last start at Bairnsdale over 1600m and a third at Bendigo before that. He's the horse that can run the pace-based finish and grab a placing.

Roughie: Kissattack (No.8) — $15.00 / $3.60
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.0% | Place: 22.4% | Value: 0.74x ▼20% since tip
Why He's a midfield runner, pace disadvantaged, but he's won over 1000m at Seymour and has a 12 per cent jockey strike rate at this track over the last 100 rides. If the first three go slow and sit on the speed, he has a chance to run on.

Race 4 – bet365 Position Payout Hcp (56)

Race type: Restricted 56, 1968m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Up And Under (No.4) is the ON-PACE speed leader with speed rank 1. Avonview (No.8) is ON-PACE, and Blonde Suspect (No.13) is ON-PACE. Devine Grunt (No.1), Grunnettan (No.5), Opus (No.7), Anchor Down (No.11) and Ain't Tellin (No.12) are BACKMARKER. Golden Hips (No.2), Surely Special (No.6), Palace Winter (No.9) and Pharoah's Daughter (No.10) are MIDFIELD. Avonview, Palace Winter and Blonde Suspect are pace advantaged, Grunnettan and Pharoah's Daughter are pace disadvantaged.
Punty read: Surely Special is the bet here, and he's a horse who has been doing it in the right races. He's a midfield runner with 6 wins and 6 seconds from 57 starts, and he's won two of his last three starts including a Wodonga 2050m win at G3 last start. He's the one who can sit in behind the speed and run on through the middle of the field. Up And Under is the danger, who is ON-PACE with the top speed rank, and his market has firmed from $6.50 to $5.50. The weight warning is a real concern, with a 1-from-4 record at 54-58kg against 0-from-6 at heavier. Pharoah's Daughter is a map danger on paper with a 0.78 pace disadvantage, but he's been placed in some tough races. Avonview is the roughie, pace advantaged and on pace, but carrying the 0-from-3 at 60-62kg warning.

Top 3 + Roughie ($7.00 pool)

1. Surely Special (No.6) — $4.20 / $1.65
Bet $7.00 Win, return $29.40
Prob 17.8% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.75x ▲3% since tip
Why Two wins from his last three starts, including a G3 win at Wodonga over 2050m, and a G4 win at Echuca last time. Good form for a midfield horse in a race where the speed may come back to him.
2. Up And Under (No.4) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 17.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.97x ▲9% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.15 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Pharoah's Daughter (No.10) — $4.60 / $1.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 15.5% | Place: 45.6% | Value: 0.71x ▲11% since tip
Why Midfield in a race where the speed is up front, and the 0.78 map factor is the problem. Three runs on the trot at the back end of the field, so the price is there if he goes well.

Roughie: Avonview (No.8) — $9.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.1% | Place: 34.1% | Value: 1.00x ▲44% since tip
Why Pace advantaged and ON-PACE, with concussion plates off first time. His last start was a fifth at Pakenham Synthetic over 1600m, and he's been placed in a bunch of G4s at this level. The weight is the concern, so he's a roughie for the placing.

Race 5 – bet365 Same Race Multi Hcp (56)

Race type: Restricted 56, 1009m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Tipping Rain (No.3) and Cavascot (No.11) are the LEADERS. Pacific Glamour (No.2), Machinist (No.1), Shooting For Stars (No.5), Wind Dreamer (No.7), Montrock (No.8) and Hillbily Kynection (No.10) are ON-PACE. Magnea (No.4), Heartattack Jack (No.6) and Banjette (No.9) are MIDFIELD. Tipping Rain, Shooting For Stars, Wind Dreamer, Hillbily Kynection and Cavascot are pace advantaged. Machinist, Pacific Glamour, Magnea and Heartattack Jack are pace disadvantaged.
Punty read: Pacific Glamour is the bet, and I'm backing him because he's the quickest early horse in a race with a lot of speed. He's on pace, not leading, and the blinkers went on first time with pads and winkers off. His last start was a seventh at Cranbourne over 1000m, but before that he ran fourth after a bumped and slow start at Tatura. The map has him on the wrong side of the pace shape, so I'm taking that on the chin. Machinist is the danger, ON-PACE with blinkers on again and three wins from 29 starts over this trip. Wind Dreamer is the one to watch, sitting on pace with a J-HOT jockey. Heartattack Jack is the roughie, a midfield horse with the fastest last 400 on the sectionals and a third last start at Bairnsdale.

Top 3 + Roughie ($10.50 pool)

1. Pacific Glamour (No.2) — $3.00 / $1.45
Bet $10.50 Win, return $31.50
Prob 28.3% | Place: 57.2% | Value: 0.85x ▲3% since tip
Why The quickest early speed in the race, and a 1-from-12 record with a second and a fourth recently. The map disadvantage is real, but the gear changes and his early speed give him the best chance of winning from the front half.
2. Machinist (No.1) — $7.00 / $2.35
Bet Tracked
Prob 14.4% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 1.01x ▲7% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $2.35 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Wind Dreamer (No.7) — $6.50 / $2.25
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.9% | Place: 35.0% | Value: 0.84x Steady since tip
Why Five wins from 48 starts and a sectional fastest over the last 400 at Ballarat. He's a strong sprinter who has the 2kg lighter weight at Ballarat, so the price is generous enough to pass on the place.

Roughie: Heartattack Jack (No.6) — $11.00 / $3.00
Bet Tracked
Prob 7.0% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.76x ▲9% since tip
Why Midfield, and he's run fast last 400s before. He got bumped and hampered at Bairnsdale, so if the front-runners go early he can finish strongly down the outside.

Race 6 – bet365 Top Finishes Hcp (56)

Race type: Restricted 56, 1209m
Map & tempo: Genuine Pace. Second Guess (No.9) is the LEADER. Pensatore (No.1), Balgowan (No.11) and Snow On Her (No.12) are ON-PACE. Aussieaussieaussie (No.6) and Smashing Ruby (No.10) are BACKMARKER. Ponte Arcobaleno (No.2), The Mount (No.3), Rockcliff (No.4), Think I'm Divine (No.5), Belmasai (No.7), Moose Jaw (No.8) and Think Sassy (No.13) are MIDFIELD. Moose Jaw, Balgowan and Snow On Her are pace advantaged. Ponte Arcobaleno, Think I'm Divine and Aussieaussieaussie are pace disadvantaged.
Punty read: Ponte Arcobaleno is the bet, and I'm putting money on a horse who won last start at Manangatang 1175m. He's a midfield runner who has been placed in six of his last 20 starts, and his Dist 10 record is 2-3-2. He's got the pace disadvantage on the map, so his price has to be right, and it is at $3.70. The Mount is a strong danger, midfield with a win at Manangatang last start and a T-HOT trainer strike rate. Balgowan is the one to watch on pace behind the lead. Belmasai is the roughie, sitting midfield with the lighter weight of 2kg less than his last start.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Ponte Arcobaleno (No.2) — $3.90 / $1.65
Bet $13.00 Win, return $50.70
Prob 21.6% | Place: 62.8% | Value: 0.84x ▲5% since tip
Why Won last start over 1175m at Manangatang and a third at Echuca over the same 1209m trip, with a 70 per cent place probability. The genuine pace hurts him on the map, but his placing record in this grade is hard to ignore.
2. The Mount (No.3) — $3.90 / $1.72
Bet Tracked
Prob 19.3% | Place: 63.0% | Value: 0.75x ▲3% since tip
Why A real chance — but at $1.72 the place the numbers don't give me enough edge to insure with. Watching, not betting.
3. Balgowan (No.11) — $5.50 / $2.15
Bet Tracked
Prob 12.0% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.66x Steady since tip
Why On pace in a race with a lot of speed up front, third at Wodonga last start over 1200m. He's been placed in a G3 and the speed in the race could come back to him late.

Roughie: Belmasai (No.7) — $10.00 / $2.85
Bet Tracked
Prob 6.4% | Place: 32.7% | Value: 0.64x ▲16% since tip
Why Midfield, lighter by 2kg than his last start, and a fourth at Manangatang last time. If the leaders go hard early, he's got the sort of closing kick that can grab a placing.

Race 7 – bet365 New Racing App Hcp (56)

Race type: Restricted 56, 1514m
Map & tempo: Moderate Pace. Colour Circle (No.1), Hell's Itch (No.2)? no, Hell's Itch (No.2) is BACKMARKER, Sacred Ingot (No.11), Prestige Geoffrey (No.7) and The Kings Gospel (No.5) are ON-PACE, Colour Circle (No.1) is ON-PACE. Prestige Ole (No.3), Slate Ripper (No.4), Our Paramour (No.10), I'm Dynamite (No.12), Nicking Gracie (No.13) and Cuban Dawn (No.14) are MIDFIELD. Somax (No.8), Okeah (No.6) and Hell's Itch (No.2) are BACKMARKER. Clarapatra (No.9) is MIDFIELD. Slate Ripper, Prestige Geoffrey, Sacred Ingot, I'm Dynamite and Cuban Dawn are pace advantaged. Prestige Ole, Somax, Clarapatra, Our Paramour and Nicking Gracie are pace disadvantaged.
Punty read: Prestige Ole is the each-way bet. He's midfield with a pace disadvantage on the map, but he's had a bit of a pick-me-up with the blinkers back on again and a second-up record of 3-1-0 from three starts. His last start was a seventh at Cranbourne over 1400m, and he has been well backed in the market. Colour Circle is the danger on pace, having run a second at Bairnsdale over 1600m and a fourth at Echuca. Slate Ripper is the horse to watch, a midfield runner with a first at Kilmore last start over 1457m and a good return on his record. Sacred Ingot is the roughie, with his price shortening from $17.00 to $13.00 and the map has him on pace in a race he's built for.

Top 3 + Roughie ($13.00 pool)

1. Prestige Ole (No.3) — $4.20 / $1.80
Bet $13.00 Each Way ($6.50W + $6.50P), collects $39.00 if it wins ($27.30 win + $11.70 place), $11.70 if it only places
Prob 13.7% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.58x Steady since tip
Why Blinkers back on again and a midfield runner who has been placed in two of his last three. He's the horse for the each-way ticket because the map is against him but the race shape isn't dead.
2. Colour Circle (No.1) — $3.20 / $1.55
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 46.1% | Value: 0.38x ▲3% since tip
Why The top pick's each-way already covers the place angle here — doubling up is paying twice for the same insurance. Tracked instead.
3. Slate Ripper (No.4) — $7.00 / $2.40
Bet Tracked
Prob 11.9% | Place: 34.7% | Value: 0.83x ▲8% since tip
Why Won at Kilmore last start over 1457m, has a Dist 5 record of 2-0-1, and is pace advantaged on the map. He's in a good position in midfield, so he's one who can finish strongly.

Roughie: Sacred Ingot (No.11) — $13.00 / $3.50
Bet Tracked
Prob 5.7% | Place: 24.4% | Value: 0.74x Steady since tip
Why On pace and pace advantaged, with his market steam from $17.00 to $13.00. His last start at Kilmore was a seventh over 1457m, but he ran third at Moruya over 1650m before that, so the form is there for a real roughie.

SEQUENCE LANES

QUADDIE (R4–R7)

Smart: 6,4,10,8 / 2,1,7,6 / 3,2,11 / 3,1,4,11 (192 combos x $0.33854 = $65.00) -- 33.9% flexi
Punty's take: Race 6 is the tightest leg with three runners, and Races 4, 5 and 7 are all wide open with four runners each. The overall risk is high and the flexi is 33.9%, so this is a play for people who can cope with a dead ticket. A $5 to $10 winner in one of those open legs is what pays well.

NUGGETS FROM THE TRACK

1 - Exacting Standard's gear overhaul
Cross-over nose band, Equicast and tongue tie all go on first time. He ran a slow start at Pakenham last start, so the stable is clearly trying something new. Watch the market for a move.
2 - Nightowl's interference run
Blinkers on one side first time and visors off first time. He's had interference in his last three starts, including a sixth at Geelong and fourth at Kilmore and Ballarat, so the form is better than the finishing positions.
3 - Banjette's market slide in reverse
Opened $51.00, now $34.00 and marked HEAVY in the market, with the sectional line having him fastest over the last 400 metres. He's not in the locked bets but the money coming his way is worth a look for those who like to chase a steam move.

FINAL WORD FROM THE SICKO SANCTUARY

Seven races, one Yarra Glen Saturday, and the sort of card where the favourites have to earn their keep. Back the bets we've locked, keep the roughies on a short leash, and if the quaddie dies on the last leg, at least you'll have had a laugh doing it.